Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday July, 24

MTi Sports

Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

The Astros are 0-29 as a 130-plus dog when they are off a night loss in which they allowed at least six runs but fewer than three home runs. Consider the Reds.

Sean Murphy

San Diego vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

The Giants have been dominant here at AT&T Park this season, and that should come as no surprise, as they've owned one of the strongest home field advantages in all of baseball in recent years.

On Tuesday, I'm not sure that they're getting enough respect from the oddsmakers, as I'm confident we'll see Padres starter Edinson Volquez run into some trouble, while Madison Bumgarner should continue to do what he does best, and that's mow them down on home soil.

While Volquez is coming off a masterful complete game one-hit shutout against the Astros last time out, keep in mind, that start came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, where he's enjoyed plenty of success this season. The road hasn't been nearly as kind, as Volquez has posted a 4.17 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Note that he's now thrown at least 111 pitches in five consecutive starts, and after needing 117 pitches to complete that shutout against the Astros, he'll pitch on only four days' rest here. Volquez has faced the Giants once in each of the last two seasons, both as a member of the Reds. He's gone winless in those two outings, with his team losing by a combined 15-4 score.

Madison Bumgarner went through a bit of a rough patch in late June and into July, but he's turned it around over his last two starts, allowing just five hits and three earned runs while striking out 13 and walking only two in 14 innings of work. He's been an absolute monster here at home this season, going 7-1 with a 1.81 ERA and an even more impressive 0.84 WHIP. Note that the Giants are a perfect 5-0 in his last five outings against the Padres, including a pair of victories this season. He's won three straight home starts against San Diego.

The Padres aren't a good road team by any stretch of the imagination, and they're in tough against a crafty left-handed pitcher on Tuesday. Even if they can get to Bumgarner, there's no guarantee they'll be able to scratch out much offense against a Giants 'pen that has posted an ERA just over two at home this season.

David Chan

Detroit vs. Cleveland
Pick: Over

The Tigers' Doug Fister (4-6, 4.04 ERA) is set to square off against the Indians' Ubaldo Jimenez (8-9, 5.24 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Fister has had and "up and down" season; while he's won three straight and posted a 2.57 ERA, with 20 K's over his last 21 frames of work, his achilles heel has always been his play on the road, just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.29 ERA away from friendly confines this year.

The best word to describe Jimenez's season to date would be: "inconsistent". The big right-hander is coming off another outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off seven hits over just 5 2/3's frames of work, in his team's eventual 6-0 setback to the Rays last Thursday. It was his fifth loss in his last seven outings; in that span Jimenez has given up at least four earned runs in four of those starts.

These teams played a three game set in Detroit from June 5-7th, and the total sailed above the number in two of three; in fact, they combined for 27 runs over the final two games.

Consider a second look at the "over" in this one!

Marc Lawrence

Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Chicago

The Cubs and Pirates meet in Game Two of this three-game series in Pittsburgh where Pat Maholm matches serves with James McDonald Tuesday evening at PNC Park. McDonald toes the slab knowing he is off a phony 'inside-out' win in his last start when he lasted 5 innings while allowing 9 hits, 6 runs and 4 walks in a 9-6 victory at Colorado last Wednesday. With McDonald 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA in his career starts against Chicago, and Maholm in great KW form with 20 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last four starts, look for the Cubbies to steal one from the Pirates here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.

Bryan Power

Cincinnati vs. Houston
Pick: Cincinnati

I'm not sure just how far the Astros can or will plummet, but I'm also not about to start predicting a turnaround anytime soon. With Monday's 8-3 loss to the Reds, Houston has now dropped seven in a row and is a pathetic 2-17 in the month of July. Things are not likely to turn around Tuesday against a Cincinnati team that has now won five straight and 12 of its last 14.

Cincy has outscored its opponents 26-13 during its five-game win streak. Meanwhile, Houston has been outscored by a huge 58-22 margin during its seven-game losing skid and has lost 20 of 22 overall. Pitching continues to be woeful and while tonight's starter Lucas Harrell has been okay of late, he was bombed for six runs - five earned - in a 6-0 loss to the Reds earlier this year. Cincinnati has won five of seven over Houston this year with one of those wins coming by tonight's starter Mike Leake.

Matt Fargo

Royals vs. Angels
Pick: Angels

This is a pretty steep number for the Angels to be favored by but there is a lot of value on the runline here. Los Angeles won the opener of this series last night by three runs and of its last 19 victories, none have come by one run so when the Angels win, they win by a lot. They are five games back in the American League West and the won last night moved them to 28-19 at home on the season. The Angels are 11-4 against the runline when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460 this year.

The Royals came into the season with a lot of high expectations but a dreadful start did them in as they have been unable to recover. They did make a small run and got back into the American League Central race however they are on a putrid 5-16 run over their last 21 games and are now 11.5 games back of the Tigers. Kansas City has been outscored by the second most amount of runs in the American League and of those most recent 16 losses, 12 have come by more than one run.

Garrett Richards gets the ball for the Angels and despite a couple tough outings, he has been very solid this season. He has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his seven starts on the season and overall he has a 3.53 ERA with the Angels going 6-1 in those seven games. This includes a perfect 4-0 in his four home starts where they have won by an average of 2.75 rpg and all four of those victories have come by at least two rpg. This will be his first ever start against the Royals which is a big edge.

Kansas City sends Will Smith to the mound for his fifth career start. He made three starts back in May and June and it wasn't pretty as he posted a 9.00 ERA before eventually getting send back down to the minors. He did pitch better after getting called up again as he allowed four runs in 6.1 innings against Seattle and tonight's offense is far better than the Mariners offense. He is a top prospect for the Royals and that will eventually show but right now he still seems to be over his head.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates fit a rare system here that plays on home favorites off a home favored loss by 2 or more runs and left 2 or less men on base, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 2 or more runs and managed just 2 runs themselves. As you can imagine this is a rare occurrence. These home teams have bounced back every time the last 9 years. The Pirates will face P. Malholm and is 3-17 road record. He has dropped 5 of his last 6 Road July starts as well. He will face tough righty J. McDonald tonight. In his home starts McDonald has been very impressive winning his last 5 and allowing just 11 earned runs in his last 63 home innings. He has won his last 5 home July starts going back to last year. The Pirates are 9-3 at home vs left hander and will rebound and get the win tonight. Take Pittsburgh.

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Wei-Yin Chen has not pitched as well as his base numbers, but just okay should be fine tonight against a Rays team that's struggling to hit lefties. I've been playing against Jeremy Hellickson with great success lately, and will again here by backing the Orioles.

Jim Feist

akland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The Oakland A's are flying high after handing the NY Yankees their first four game losing streak of the season. The A's swept the four game series from the Yankees, winning each game by one run. The A's have now won eight of their last nine games. They have also joined the race for one of the two AL Wild Card spots. The Blue Jays are also coming off a sweep of their own, winning three games at Boston including Sunday's 15-7 pounding of the Red Sox. Travis Blackley starts for the A's with a 2-2 record in eight games. Blackley is 1-1 on the road this year with a 2.66 ERA and 1.098 ERA. The A's also boast a very bullpen with a 2.74 ERA and 1.163 WHIP. Toronto's pen isn't quite the same with a 4.22 ERA and 1.367 ERA. The A's are rolling and they have the pitching to capture the wild card. Take Oakland here on Tuesday.

Scott Spreitzer

Seattle Mariners -115

While one major book in Las Vegas said they will not change the Yankees' odds to win the world series after the trade for Ichiro, I believe tonight's game line has been adjusted a tad...enough to make it a play for me. New York isn't scoring a lot of runs right now, getting shut down in Oakland before scoring just 4 runs in last night's win at SAFECO. They have scored a grand total of just 14 runs in their last five games combined. Seattle will send Felix Hernandez to the bump and he has been outstanding, allowing 1 or no earned runs in six of his last seven starts. He owns a 3.45 lifetime ERA against the Yankees and he has been virtually untouchable in most of his home outings this season. Seattle enters on a 21-4 run at home when Hernandez toes the rubber against teams hitting .265 or worse in the second half of the season. They are on a 6-2 run when the righty starts against the Yankees and the Mariners are on a 4-0 run off a loss. I believe Seattle will do enough damage against Freddy Garcia to support Hernandez. I'm backing the Mariners on Tuesday.

Stephen Nover

Detroit Tigers -125

The Tigers are red-hot winning 13 of their last 15 and five in a row. They have upgraded at second base trading for Omar Infante and have a rejuvenated Doug Fister on the mound today.

Fister is back healthy and the results are kicking in as he's 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts. He has an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts allowing only one run each to the Orioles and Angels while pitching a combined 15 innings.

Fister has a strong recent history against the Indians going 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA during his past four starts against them.

Cleveland starter Ubaldo Jimenez has failed to reach the success he achieved in the National League with Colorado. He has a 5.24 ERA and isn't in good form having allowed 13 earned runs in his last two starts while giving up 14 hits and nine walks in just eight innings.

GoodFella

Seattle Mariners -115

Outstanding value on King Felix at home here laying just -115 & he is in great form right now, as he's allowed just 6 ER in 4 starts this month, with a 29/4 K/BB ratio. He does his best work at SAFECO as well & I simply expect him to out duel Freddy Garcia who is coming off a season high 105 pitches his last start and has "regressed" some his L/2 starts as well. NYY in a stretch where they are not smashing the ball too, as they of course got swept in Oakland and put up just 4 runs last night. Simply a very nice price on Felix here and my money is on the MARINERS tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +104 over N.Y. METS

When things take a turn for the worst, as they have for the New York Mets, it becomes tougher to snap out of it with each passing game. The Mets have not only lost seven of nine games this season to the Nationals, but they’re 1-8 since the all-star break and 1-10 over their past 11 after losing the opener last night. R.A. Dickey has returned to earth after putting up some ridiculous numbers.

Against Washington last week at Nationals Park, Dickey was hit hard (10 hits in 7.1 frames) but suffered just three earned runs. He’s now been banged around in four of his last five starts with a 6.75 ERA over that span and he was also rocked in an inning of relief against the Dodgers this past weekend. Suffice to say, his confidence is not what it was a month ago.

The Nats have won three straight and Gio Gonzalez has full skill support behind his 3.32 ERA (3.05 xERA) and 1.14 WHIP. He has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 12-5 record and 129 strikeouts in 111 innings. He’s also a lefty and the Mets have won just 13 of 35 games against southpaw starters. A struggling Mets team now faces one of the best in the game. All arrows point Nationals here.

Vegas Experts

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Play : Atlanta Braves

It's been tough slugging for Marlins in July (8-11) and it won't get easier when they play the second of this three-game set against the Braves with Tim Hudson (8-4, 3.70 ERA) heading to the bump. Hudson threw a five-hit shutout when he faced Marlins back in June right here in Marlins Ballpark. With Marlins a dismal 3-10 last thirteen hosting Atlanata expect Braves to improved it's 5-0 streak in Miami's back yard with Hudson and their 9-2 stretch last eleven at Miami with the hurler.