Tony Stoffo
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: Washington Nationals
Free Play - Washington at NY Mets Yesterday with our free member play - we had an easy winner with the under as the Cubs shutout the Pirates 2-0. For this evening I'm going to release a strong value play on the Nationals as the dog here against the Mets. Main reason being I feel that Dickey is just not the same pitcher that dominated earlier this season. In his last 3 starts he has allowed 13 runs and 29 hits in just 19+ innings - resulting in a 6.05 ERA and 1.707 WHIP. So it's becoming obvious that the league is definitely catching up with his style of knuckleball. Plus he sure hasn't fooled the Nationals so far this season allowing 5 runs or more in his 3 starts against them. So with this being the 4th time Washington will see him - I can see them putting up some crooked numbers up on the scoreboard here this evening. So as you can see the Nationals are the play here in this spot.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
Milwaukee's Zack Greinke and Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee both own Cy Young awards but neither comes into this game feeling very good about their respective 2012 seasons. Greinke has been the subject of trade rumors for weeks and he could be making one of his last starts for the Brewers. Cliff Lee knows what it's like to be traded at the deadline (no one is suggesting he will be this year) but he’s more worried about getting into the win column. Lee owns a 3.62 ERA in 2012, allowing less hits (107) than innings pitched (111.1) plus has a terrific 106-22 KW ratio. However, he owns just a SINGLE win in 16 starts (he’s 1-6) and the Phillies are 4-12 in his 16 starts, making him MLB’s biggest ‘money-burner’ among starting pitchers at minus-$1341. As for Greinke, he still hasn’t lost at Miller Park (he’s 16-0 and the team 24-1 in 25 starts) but his workload right before and after the all Star break seems to have worn him out. He was ejected after just four pitchers on the Saturday before the break, but then came back to start the next day. When he started again for the Brewers on the Friday after the break, Greinke had started THREE consecutive games for the Brewers. Throw in his July 2 start and Grienke owns a 9.00 ERA in four July starts (14 ERs in 14 innings). Milwaukee allowed Greinke to skip his last start, to allow him to "recharge the batteries." It couldn’t have hurt but who knows what kind of state of mind or what kind of physical shape he is in. For all of Lee’s lack of success, he’s had 10 quality starts this year, winning only once, as he has been backed by a total of only 17 runs of support in the other nine games. Talk about being overdue? I’m taking the Phillies.
Jack Jones
Cincinnati Reds -130
The Cincinnati Reds are on an absolute tear right now, winning six straight and 13 of their last 15 overall. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros cannot buy a win, losing seven straight and 20 of their last 22 overall.
I'll continue backing the Reds at a great price tonight in Game 2 of this series with the Astros. Cincinnati starter Mike Leake has been at his best on the road this season, posting a 3.11 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight starts away from home.
Lucas Harrell is 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.334 WHIP on the season for Houston. He has been decent, but won't get much run support from a Houston line-up that has scored three runs or fewer in 10 of its last 12 games. Harrell allowed six runs and 10 base runners over six innings of a 6-0 loss to Cincinnati in his lone career starts against the Reds on April 28th.
The Reds are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. Cincinnati is 7-0 in its last 7 vs. NL Central opponents. The Astros are 34-71 in their last 105 vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 3-14 in its last 17 vs. NL Central foes. The Astros are 0-5 in Harrell's last 5 starts as an underdog. Bet the Reds Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Washington Nationals +104
The Mets, losers of 10 of 11, are struggling and Dickey hasn't been as sharp lately. He has a 6.05 ERA over his last three starts and has given up four runs or more in four of his last five starts. The Nationals, who have won three in a row, haven't had much trouble with the Mets. They are 11-3 in the last 14 meetings and 7-1 in the last eight in New York. Washington is in good hands with Gonzalez, who has been reliable on the road all season. The Nationals are 6-1 in his last 7 road starts. It is also worth noting that the Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog and 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Take Washington.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -171
The Sox struggled during their recent road trip but got right back in the win column in their home return and have now won 8 of their last 9 on the South Side. They have also won 5 of their last 6 against the Twins. Chicago has the edge again tonight with Quintana on the hill. The southpaw has been terrific, holding the opposition to 2 runs or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts. The Sox are 7-3 in those 10 starts. Bet Chicago.
Steve Janus
Detroit Tigers -121
The Detroit Tigers come into tonight's game absolutely on fire. They have won 5 straight and 7 of 8 overall. I expect the Tigers to keep their focus against their AL Central rivals. Detroit's recent success has landed them in first place in the division, but they are just 1-game up on Chicago and 4 games up on the Indians.
This is the perfect spot for the Tigers to bury the Indians. Cleveland was able to beat the Orioles 3-1 last night, but had lost four straight coming into the contents. The Indians have scored a total of 9 runs in their last five games.
The Tigers will send out Doug Fister, who is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts. Fister is starting to pitch like he did last season after he came over from the Mariners. He went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 10 starts for Detroit last year. Definitely a great spot to back him with the Tigers only -121 on the money line.
While Fister seems to be headed in the right direction, Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez has really struggled of late. After giving up 8 runs in 2.3 innings against the Blue Jays, he allowed 5 runs in 5.7 innings vs the Rays. He has a ridiculous 9.64 ERA and 2.071 WHIP over his last three starts. He is also just 4-5 with a 5.88 ERA in 9 career starts vs Detroit.
WUNDERDOG
Washington at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets -110
The New York Mets have lost four straight games. During that four-game stretch, the pitching in has been horrific, allowing 31 total runs. That certainly is likely to change today as they send 13-1 R.A. Dickey to the mound. Dickey has been sensational in an anticipated pitcher's duel at home, as the Mets are 10-1 in his last 11 starts in this situation. Overall they are 20-7 in his last 27 starts. Washington turns to Gio Gonzalez, who has struggled over his last five starts, pitching to an ERA of 5.81. The Mets have done a good job offensively, while Washington has struggled for most of the season producing runs. Play this one on the Mets.
MLB Predictions
Philadelphia Phillies -128
The Phillies won in dramatic fashion last night as they scored 4 runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Brewers 7-6. Tonight the Brewers will send Zack Greinke to the mound who is 9-3 on the season with a 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .261 opponents batting average. Over his last three starts he has allowed 13 runs over 14 innings. On the road Greinke is just 5-3 with a 4.41 ERA. Cliff Lee is on the rubber for Philadelphia and finally looks like he is coming around. Lee is just 1-6 on the season with a 3.72 ERA, but has allowed just 5 earned runs over his last three starts (22 innings of work). The Brewers have lost 4 straight games, and are just 3-7 in their last 10 vs NL East opponents. The Phillies are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs NL Central opponents, and are 9-2 in Lee’s last 11 starts vs NL Central opponents. The Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win, and 10-2 in Lee’s last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Ryan Howard went 3 for 5 last night with 3 RBI’s and has given this Philadelphia team a boost. With Cliff Lee looking like the Cliff Lee of old and Greinke showing some overall struggles I love the price we are getting on Philadelphia tonight. Take the Phillies for 2 units.
Los Angeles Dodgers +115
The Dodgers won Game 1 of this series between two National League powerhouses last night by a score of 5-3. The win made the Dodgers 4-0 against the Cardinals this year, and was their 5th straight win. Los Angeles is now 53-44 on the season (24-24 on the road) while the Cardinals are 50-46 on the season (26-21 at home). Clayton Kershaw will pitch for Los Angeles and he is 7-5 on the season despite a low 2.74 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and .219 opponents batting average. Adam Wainwright takes the mound for St Louis and he is 7-10 on the season with a 4.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. Wainwright is just 4-5 at home this season with a high 5.01 ERA. Note that the Dodgers are 13-7 in games that Kershaw starts, while the Cardinals are just 7-12 in games that Wainwright starts. Overall Los Angeles is 39-17 in Kershaw’s last 56 starts, and 19-7 in his last 26 starts vs a team with a winning record. The Dodgers have won 4 straight road games and are 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. The Cardinas are 0-4 in Wainwright’s last 4 vs a team with a winning record, and 1-9 in his last 10 starts with 5 days rest. The Cardinals are just 7-21 in their last 28 games vs a team with a winning record. Dating back to last season the Dodgers have won 8 straight meetings with St Louis. Los Angeles has been playing well with the big bats back in the lineup, scoring 5+ runs in their last 5 games, while the Cardinals have had their troubles scoring runs scoring more than 4 runs just twice in their last 10 games. Take the Dodgers to win tonight behind their ace.
Ross King
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5
Minnesota versus teams with a winning record in the second half of the season are 40-57.Minnesota lost 9 of the last 13 games and besides taking care of Kansas City have really not done much.Devries made his debut versus Chicago on May 24 and gave up 6 runs in 5 innings.When the total is between 9-9.5 Chicago is currently 15-6 and at home they are 9-2.Quintana has surrendered 2 or less runs in 8 of his 10 starts.Chicago is 6-2 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 the last 3 seasons.Take Chicago Whitesox on the runline as they have won 8 of 9 at home and with a solid starter today they should get the victory tonight by 2 or more runs as your freeplay winner.
Teddy Covers
Kansas City vs. LA Angels
Pick: Over
The betting markets aren’t used to seeing totals of 9 hung at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, a notoriously pitcher friendly ballpark. LA’s highest posted total through their first 44 home games was 8.5. We saw the first ‘9’ of the season in Saturday’s matinee against Texas, with the struggling Erwin Santana on the hill for LA matching up against the inconsistent Yu Darvish. Bettors cashed that Over with relative ease after eight runs were scored in the first three innings.
Tonight, we’re seeing the second ‘9’ of the season in LA, and the betting markets are pounding the Under in morning trading. I don’t agree with that move. The Angels lineup is on fire right now, finally living up to the expectations from their massive payroll. They’ve scored 53 runs in their last nine games, just shy of six runs per contest, going 6-2-1 to the Over in the process.
Don’t expect LA’s offensive onslaught to be stymied by rookie Royals starter Will Smith. He was called up back in May, made three ineffective starts (9.00 ERA), then got sent back down to AAA-Omaha. Smith’s return to the big leagues following the All Star break wasn’t much better; it up by the light hitting Mariners. The Royals bullpen behind him is in lousy shape tonight – KC hasn’t had an off day since the break, and each of their last two starters has failed to make it out of the sixth inning. Don’t be shocked if LA approaches or exceeds this total all by themselves.
But LA starter Garrett Richards can’t be trusted enough to lay a price with the Angels tonight, making the Over an easy choice. He had a 5.28 ERA at AAA this season, but got the call-up because of Jerome Williams ineffectiveness. Two of his last three starts have been absolute disasters, allowing 17 runs against the Orioles and Blue Jays while failing to finish the fifth inning either time. Even his three hit shutout gem against the Tigers in his last start is problematic. Richards had twice as many walks as strikeouts in that game, despite being staked to an early 7-0 lead, which tells us quite clearly that he’s not confident challenging major league hitters just yet. Expect fireworks! Take the Over.
Tony George
Philadelphia -130
Wow - pitchers duel, or is it? Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke take the hill tonight and the Phillies off a 7-6 win last night against the Brewers, but it is Lee who I have my money on tonight. Zach has had a bad run as of late with over a whopping 10 ERA and 2.25 WHIP his last 3 outings. Not good news on the road for the Brew Crew tonight. Neither bullpen all that solid, so I am taking the hot handed Lee at home tonight with under a 1 WHIP in his last 3 and right at a 2 ERA. I think he gets better run support at days end, that will be difference. Philly only 2-7 their last 9 home games, I think they turn that around tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Detroit -119 over CLEVELAND: Google News Play. Gotta go with the hot Cats here. Detroit has won 13 of their last 15 games and have been doing it with both hitting and pitching. In their last 10 games Detroit has averaged 5.4 rpg, while allowing 3.9 rpg. Doug Fister is starting to come around for Detroit, as he is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP in his last 3 starts. he has allowed just 5 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 18 batters in his last 15 innings of work. He should continue posting numbers like that tonight vs a team he has dominated of late. In his last 5 starts vs Cleveland he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA, while in 5 career starts at Progressive Field he is 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA. He also has an 0.93 WHIP in his 5 starts here. Ubaldo Jiminez is not having good success right now and is really the weak link of the Cleveland staff. Ubaldo is 8-9 with a 5.24 ERA overall and 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. He also doesn't have great numbers vs the Tigers in his career. Tigers hitters are hitting .314 off of Ubaldo and have a .403 OBP vs him as well, while in his 9 career starts vs them he is just 4-5 with a 5.37 ERA. While Detroit has really taken off offensively of late the Tribe has not as they come in averaging just 1.8 rpg in their last 5 and just 3.3 rpg in their last 10 games. Better Pitching, better offense and a ton of momentum should have Detroit walking away with game 1 of this series.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Toronto/ Oakland Under 9.5: With the Pitching that Oakland has I just can't see these teams getting to 10 runs. The A's have the best ERA in the AL (3.38) and while a lot of that is due to their 2.88 ERA at home, they still have a solid 3.95 ERA on the road. Travis Blackley Gets the ball for the A's tonight and he has been solid posting a 2.86 ERA overall and a 2.42 ERA on the road. He also has a 1.04 WHIP on the road and just 6.25 rpg have been scored in his road starts. Travis hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in his last 6 starts and his last 2 starts were vs the high scoring Rangers and he allowed just 4 total ER's in the two games. Brett Cecil is struggling this year once again, but this just may be the team for him to get back on track. Brett has faced the A's 4 times in his career and he has a 2.79 ERA, allowing 4 ER's or less in each of those 4 starts. The A's do score 4.02 rpg on the road, but hit just .223 off of southpaws away from home. Toronto is off a huge offensive series vs Boston, but that was in Boston vs a very poor staff. Bautista is still out and Toronto will start to struggle without him, especially when going up against a solid staff like the A's. I really don't expect more than 7 runs in this one.
Chicago/ Minnesota Over 9: The Sox had some recent struggles scoring on their recent road trip, as they averaged just 2.4 rpg in their last 9 games of the trip, but they came home last night and knocked around a hot pitcher in Francisco Liriano. The Sox put up 7 runs in the game and have averaged a solid 5.26 rpg at home and 5.52 rp/9 at home vs righties. Both pitchers tonight have not pitched that bad this year as Cole Has a 3.95 ERA overall, while Jose has a 2.30 ERA overall, but for both starters it has literally been night and day when they have pitched at night compared to day. Cole has 1 day start and has a 1.50 ERA and just 7 runs were scored in that day start, while he has a 4.37 ERA, with 11 rpg being scored in his 6 night starts. For Jose Quintana he has an 0.53 ERA with just 3.5 rpg being scored in his day starts, while he has a 3.95 ERA with 10.83 rpg being scored in his 6 night starts this year. Vs lefties this year the Twins have averaged 4.7 rpg, with those games averaging 10 rpg, while their division games have averaged 9.9 rpg on the year. Chicago averages 5 rpg vs righties, with those games averaging 9.2 rpg, while their division games have averaged 9.6 rpg. These teams should combine for at least 10 runs with ease here.
PITTSBURGH -163 over Chicago: The Pirates were in a flat spot last night and it showed as they were shutout 2-0, but they should bounce back with a nice win tonight. Paul Maholm has been on a solid run of late with a 4-0 mark and an 0.92 ERA in his last 4 starts, but 3 of those starts were at home and tonight he is on the road where he is just 2-4 with a 6.15 ERA on the year. Pittsburgh has had struggles scoring at home, but after getting shutout last night they should be able to put up some runs in this one. James McDonald has been one of pittsburgh better starters this year, but he was rocked in his last 2 starts, but both of those starts were on the road and now he is back home where he is 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA and an 0.89 WHIP in 10 starts. Those numbers should continue tonight vs a cubs team that has scored just 3 runs in 4 games of this trip so far. Despite Chicago's win last night they still have the second worst road record in the league (15-35), while Pittsburgh has the best home record in the league at 32-15 and they can't afford another home loss to the lowly Cubs here. Look for Pitt to bounce back strong tonight.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (6-0 RUN) (14-8 +3.91 UNITS)
Since 2005 San Diego is 3-18 as a road dog if they won by 1 run in their starters last start, if he went at least 6 innings in that start. Play On San Francisco -169 over San Diego
Kansas City is 3-19, since 2005 off a game that was decided in regulation, but was tied after at least 6 separate innings and this is not game 1 of a series. Play on LA Angels -160 over Kansas City
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota/CHICAGO over 9 -110
U.S. Cellular Field is not kind or forgiving to fly-ball pitchers like Minnesota’s Cole De Vries. De Vries has put up some respectable numbers but luck has played a giant role in his moderate success so far. In his last three starts, De Vries has had 3, 3 and 6 groundball outs against 15, 15 and 11 fly-ball outs. His 17%/56% groundball/fly-ball split is what disasters are made of. U.S. Cellular Field increases HR/fly-balls an incredible 38% and that makes this start for De Vries a potential disaster.
Meanwhile, the Twins are hitting .274 against lefties and that mark is even better on the road with a .283 BA. They’ll face a lefty here in Jose Quintana. Quintana has been defying the odds at multiple levels. His ERA of 2.30 is almost a run and a half lower than his xERA of 3.74. He has an unsustainable 81% strand rate. He relies on command more than his raw stuff and just like De Vries, Quintana’s numbers are in for a regression.
A check of the conditions tonight at U.S. Cellular Field shows the wind blowing out to left at 7 MPH. The wind might not be the only thing that gets blown out.
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run continues to take off, as I'm 80-48-1 after nailing the Texas Rangers over the Boston Red Sox last night. Tonight I am taking the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves, who have lost three in a row.
I'm not going to list the pitchers in this game, even though it's quite an intriguing matchup with Timmy Hudson and Mark Buehrle taking the mound, matching two of the games better veterans.
To note, Buehrle is in after having his string of four straight wins snapped in his last time out, a disappointing loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Prior to the left-hander allowing four runs in five innings, he had a stretch of giving up just three runs in 28-2/3 frames. He did beat Atlanta on May 16, so that's a plus.
Also, the veteran southpaw is 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA in his last five starts, with 30 strikeouts and just six walks. He's also limited opponents to a mere eight extra-base hits during that stretch.
But again, this is more about going against the slumping Braves than what the pitchers will do. All in all, the intangible are all in Miami's favor. I'm taking the home team here.
2♦ MIAMI
Matt Rivers
For your free play this Tuesday I will side with the streaking Tigers to keep their winning ways going at the expense of their slumping division rival Cleveland tonight at Progressive Field.
Detroit has won their last 5 games and 13 of their last 15 overall. Starter Doug Fister is coming on strong with wins in each of his last 3 starts.
As for Cleveland, the Indians have lost 7 of their last 10 games to dip to .500 on the season, and starter Ubaldo Jimenez is just 1-2 his last 3 trips to the mound with an ERA that is approaching 10.
Detroit is just 1-5 in this year's season series versus Cleveland, so I would say it is about time the Tigers even things up a little over the next 3 days.
Go with the Tigers as the road chalk to post win #6 in a row.
4♦ DETROIT