Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 27,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
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When rookie sensation Stephen Strasburg faces Tommy Hanson and the Braves in the nation's capitol this evening he will do so knowing he is 4-0 with a neat 2.39 ERA in his last four team starts. With Hanson 3-6 in his career team starts in this series, including 1-3 here, and 2-4 with a 6.01 ERA in his last six starting efforts, look for the Braves to slip to 6-13 in this park here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Steve Merril
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Cubs vs. Astros
Play: Under 8
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It's a rematch of a pitching match-up from July 21st as Houston’s Brett Myers faces off against Chicago’s Ted Lilly. But tonight’s game is in Houston where Myers is 5-0 with a 2.48 ERA in nine starts at home. He gave up just one run and five hits in seven innings pitched against Chicago his last time out. Overall, Myers has gone Under the total in 8 of his 11 starts against the Cubs in his career. Aramis Ramirez (8-33), Alfonso Soriano (5-24), Kosuke Fukudome (2-13), Tyler Colvin (1-7), Mike Fontenot (1-5), and Starlin Castro (1-5) all struggle with Myers. The Cubs have gone Under the total in 25 of their 47 road games hitting .248 away from Wrigley; they've gone Under in four of their last five games overall. Chicago’s Ted Lilly gave up seven hits and one run in 7.3 innings of work against Houston his last time out. Lilly is 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 11 starts against the Astros in his career. Eight of those starts have gone Under the total. Carlos Lee (8-38), Lance Berkman (3-29), Hunter Pence (5-26), Humberto Quintero (1-12), Jason Michaels (2-10), Michael Bourn (1-8), and Jason Bourgeois (1-4) all struggle with the lefty. Houston has gone Under in 14 of their 23 games against southpaws while hitting just .244 as a team against them. This game has all the makings of a low-scoring, pitcher’s duel so we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Cubs and Astros tonight.

Cajun Sports
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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: MMinnesota Twins
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The Twins look to take a 2-0 lead in this series after defeating the Royals on Monday night 19 to 1. They will send Carl Pavano to the bump knowing he is 6-3 on the road this season with a 3.04 ERA and a perfect 3-0 his last three outings with a 1.75 ERA. KC will counter with Bruce Chen who has been decent at home going 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA but he has struggled of late with a 0-2 mark his last three trips to the hill with an ERA of 7.20. Minnesota is 70-42 against division opponents over the last 2 seasons, 32-14 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season and Pavano is 47-19 as a favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. We will back the visitor here as they capture another victory over the host Royals on Tuesday night in Kansas City.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Minnesota Twins 4 Kansas City Royals 2

Craig Trapp
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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1.5
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Good value on the hottest hitting team on the planet TEX Rangers. Add in they have ace Cliff Lee finally settled in and ready to dominate. Expect a near sell out to support the Rangers and really give this team a lift. Gonzalez goes for OAK and should keep them close early. But, he has only averaged about 6 innings and 3 runs allowed in last 3 starts. That's not good enough to beat the best pitchers in last three years Cliff Lee. TEX blows this one open late as they really exploit an average bullpen.

JIM FEIST

BRAVES / NATIONALS
PLAY: UNDER

I guess that rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg has made a believer out of me. All this 22-year old has done is go 3-0 his last three starts with a 2.04 ERA, 5 BB's and 22 KO's!!! On the season Strasburg is 5-2 with a 2.32 ERA and has 75 KO's in 54 1/3 innings. The only knock about taking a game with this rookie is that he won't go over 100 pitches. The Nationals refuse to pitch him deep into games so he typically goes between five and six innings. His longest outing thus far was seven innings, which he did twice. Meanwhile the braves toss a young pitcher tonight also, 23-year old Tommy Hanson. Hanson is 8-6 on the season with a 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In his last four starts, Hanson has allowed 2, 3, 2, and 0 runs respectfully. July was real good to Hanson as he had a 2.73 ERA and 24 to 6, KO to BB ratio in just 23 1/3 innings. I look for this one to be a low scoring affair with these two hard throwing young arms on the mound. Take the UNDER.

EZWINNERS
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New York Yankees -240
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The Yankee's ace CC Sabathia is rolling along this season with a 13-3 record and an ERA of 3.18. New York has won three out of the four meetings between these two teams this season and the Bronx Bombers have won five out of their last six trips to Cleveland. CC Sabathia has been dominate in these rolls as a heavy favorite as the Yankees are 18-3 in Sabathia's last 21 starts as a favorite of -200 or more. Cleveland will have Josh Tomlin making his major league debut in this game. Tomlin draws a very tough assignment for his big league debut. Tomlin doesn't overpower hitters and has been successful as a minor leaguer by consistently throwing strikes. I'm not sure that approach is going to be successful against this powerful New York lineup. The Tribe has struggled against lefties and they are up against one of the best in the league. Tomlin doesn't have much margin for error because he is not likely to receive much run support. Play on New York.

Gill Alexander
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STL (-150) vs NYM
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Wainwright is on a 25 consecutive inning scoreless streak over the course of his last 4 starts. The Mets haven't scored in their last 16 innings. NYM has been shut out 4 of 11 ballgames since the All-Star break and have scored 2 runs or fewer 7 times. In fact, they've scored more than a single run in an inning just 3 times in 108 innings since the break. They've won only 3 times in their last 15 overall. I could pepper you with a slew of other phenomenal metrics for Wainwright but really all you need to know are those stats above. It's my shortest write-up for any ballgame this season and a line that is extremely affordable under the circumstances. Let's play it and not look for reasons not to.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
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Play Philadelphia -1.5 over Arizona
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The Phillies have won 8 straight home games and finally, are starting to catch the breaks opposing units have relished in their battles with the Red and White. Overall, lefty Cole Hamels has been super all season long and he should get the appropriate support tonight.

Larry Ness
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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
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The Twins had 19 hits in a 10-4 win at Baltimore on Sunday (took three of four games in that series) and then got 20 hits in Monday's 19-1 rout of the Royals last night. Zach Greinke entered with a 5-1 mark and a 2.89 ERA over his last seven starts but allowed eight hits and eight runs in just four innings. The Twins have now scored have 36 runs on 53 hits in winning their last three games. One would assume their bats will cool off but the way Carl Pavano has been pitching lately, he doesn't figure to need much help. He's 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA over his last nine outings (team is 8-1), throwing four complete games in the process. The Royals can only counter with veteran lefty Bruce Chen, who has made 20 appearances (but just 10 starts) in 2010. He's 4-4 with a 4.64 ERA in those starts (team is 4-6). Chen and the Royals seem no match for Pavano and the Twins. Take Minny.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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Coming off one of the biggest blowouts of the year, and looking to kick this team while it's down, I expect the Twins to once again lay a beating on the Royals tonight behind Carl Pavano:

Pavano is coming off a complete game shutout against the Orioles on Thursday; he limited Baltimore to just five hits with one walk and had four K's.

He's thrown back to back complete games now; he's 2-1 vs. the Royals this season.
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Minnesota is 5-1 its last six overall; 15-4 its last 19 vs. Kansas City.

In the other dugout: Bruce Chen heads to the hill for the home side; Chen allowed five runs over six innings in Thursday's 10-4 loss to the Yanks; he also gave up nine hits and issued two walks.

Kansas City is 1-4 its last five overall; 2-5 its last seven in front of the home town crowd.
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Bottom line: The Twins are on fire at the plate and will look to tee off against a struggling Chen; Pavano is clearly the more dominant pitcher in this matchup; when taking all of the above into account, you may want to consider a second look at MINNESOTA in this situation.

MATT FARGO

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Both Los Angeles and San Diego are coming a off successful homestand and roadtrip respectively and now both get back into divisional action. The Dodgers took four of the final five games to keep pace with the Padres as they are six games out in the National League West making this series a very big one. Any sort of a series loss puts Los Angeles into a huge hole but a series win keeps them in the race.
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The Padres lost two of three in Atlanta before sweeping the Pirates in Pittsburgh over the weekend behind some sensational pitching. San Diego returns home where it has been very good this season, sitting 11 games over .500 that includes a streak of six straight wins. The pitching has been the story all season with a bunch of no names making huge names for themselves.

The Dodgers pitching has been outstanding of late and I see it continuing tonight.
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Chad Billingsley has been rather disappointing this season with a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP through 18 starts. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season however as he tossed a five-hit shutout against the Giants and he looks to ride that momentum into tonight. He has been a Padres killer, including this season, as he is 9-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 starts with the Dodgers winning six of the last seven.
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San Diego counters with Jon Garland who has been very efficient in his first season with the Padres. He has a 3.61 ERA through 20 starts including a 2.51 ERA in 10 home starts but his WHIP is 1.35 and 1.34 respectively and that is not overly impressive as it shows he allows a lot of baserunners but has been fortunate to get out of most jams. He has a 4.91 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in two starts against the Dodgers this season.
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The Dodgers are 14-1 in their last 15 games following five straight games where they has 10 or fewer hits and they are 6-0 in Billingsley’s last six starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. San Diego is coming off that sweep as mentioned but it has had trouble against the better teams of late going 3-7 in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers

Rob Vinciletti
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Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
PlayChicago Cubs
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The Cubs qualify in a solid system that plays on certain road favorites off a road favored win, if they scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits vs an opponent off a home dog loss, scoring 4 or less runs on 10+ hits. This system has done rather well the past few seasons. T.Lilly is pitching for th Cubs and he has allowed just 1 run in his last 22 innings vs Houston. Wiht the Cubs averaging well over 6 runs per game on.315 hitting the past week, we will make the Cubs the free play tonight.

Tom Freese
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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota starter Carl Pavano has 2 walks and 16 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Pavano has been on the winning side in 8 of his last 9 starts. The Twins are 41-19 vs. AL Central teams. Minnesota is 5-1 their last 6 road games and they are 51-25 their last 76 games as favorites. Kansas City starter Bruce Chen has allowed 12 runs in his last 15 innings of work over his last 3 starts. The Royals are 50-103 their last 153 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Kansas City is 17-43 in game two of a series and they are 16-35 their last 51 meetings in Kansas City vs. the Twins.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +104
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After ending their road trip with 5 straight losses, the Rockies will be happy to finally be back at Coors Field tonight. They will be even happier to see the Pirates, a team they have won 9 of their last 10 home games against by an average of 4 runs. I really like De La Rosa on the bump in this situation considering Pittsburgh doesn't pack much power at the plate. In fact, De La Rosa is 10-0 on the money line versus terrible power teams averaging 0.75 or less home runs per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. He is winning these contests by an average score of 6.4 to 2.9. I also love the fact that De La Rosa is 10-0 on the money line in home games in the month of July in his career, winning these outings by an average score of 9.8 to 3.4. Duke was shelled in his only ever start at Coors, giving up 9 runs in just 5 innings of work. I'll take the Rockies on the run line this evening.