Spartan
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FLA (-115) vs SFG
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Let's see if we can follow up last night's easy free winner with another one here. I was truly impressed with the performance of Nolasco and the Marlins last night as they went into San Francisco and got that first game. Lately Barry Zito had shown he had their number but they prevailed in a hard fought game. Now they send their ace to the hill in Josh Johnson. The hard, cold stubborn fact is Johnson is pitching as well or better than anyone in the game right now.The guy has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts and guys that is just sick. This has all the makings of a great old fashioned pitchers duel with Johnson and Cain locking horns, I see a total of 6 at some shops and it just does not get any lower than that. For a small wager off a free selection I feel this Marlins club deserves a hard look tonight guys, pretty reasonable price with a stud like Josh Johnson on the bump.
Roz Juarbe,
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Braves at Nationals
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I guess that rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg has made a believer out of me. All this 22-year old has done is go 3-0 his last three starts with a 2.04 ERA, 5 BB's and 22 KO's!!! On the season Strasburg is 5-2 with a 2.32 ERA and has 75 KO's in 54 1/3 innings. The only knock about taking a game with this rookie is that he won't go over 100 pitches. The Nationals refuse to pitch him deep into games so he typically goes between five and six innings. His longest outing thus far was seven innings, which he did twice. Meanwhile the braves toss a young pitcher tonight also, 23-year old Tommy Hanson. Hanson is 8-6 on the season with a 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In his last four starts, Hanson has allowed 2, 3, 2, and 0 runs respectfully. July was real good to Hanson as he had a 2.73 ERA and 24 to 6, KO to BB ratio in just 23 1/3 innings. I look for this one to be a low scoring affair with these two hard throwing young arms on the mound. Take the UNDER.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +2.06 over COLORADO
The Rockies are really going bad and while the Pirates are a welcome sight for anyone, this take-back is simply too juicy to ignore. The Rockies have dropped 10 of 12 and six in a row and that includes a four-game sweep in Philadelphia in which they scored a total of nine runs. In the last three games they faced Kendrick, Happ and Blanton and scored nine runs combined after they were shutout by Halliday in the opener. In a recent three-game set in Cincinnati, the Rocks scored four runs combined in all three games. So, over its last 12 games that include four in Philly and three in Cinci, the Rockies are batting a combined .209 and only the Mets at .196 are worse over that stretch. The Rockies also return home for the first time since the break after a long 11-game trip in which they haven’t had a day off. If the Pirates are going to win a game, one has to give them its best chance in this one. Jorge De La Rosa has had one good start in three attempts since coming off the DL. That strong effort came in his last game in Florida and it could be a good sign for De La Rosa but even so, he and the Rocks do not warrant being better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone right now. Remember, De La Rosa can be wild and he also sports a career 5.21 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .270 BAA, not exactly heart-stopping numbers. The Pirates are not as bad as its record suggests. They have a very weak rotation but its position players are young, talented, exciting and dangerous. Since the break, the Pirates are batting a combined .297, which is fourth best in the majors over that span and that includes three games in San Diego. Zach Duke is about as average as they come and his chances of getting rocked are greater than his chances of throwing a gem. Still, he’s looked sharper in two straight starts against Houston and Milwaukee after a month layoff and has an outstanding GB/FB ratio of 49%/35%. Duke’s career numbers look no worse than De La Rosa’s and anyway, this has nothing to do with wagering on Duke and everything to do with playing against De La Rosa and the Rockies as unwarranted huge chalk. Play: Pittsburgh +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.05 over SAN DIEGO
Much has been made about the Dodgers lack of hitting since the break and things surely don’t get easier in San Diego. However, the Dodgers have still won four of its last five and they also played four games at home, three in San Fran and four in St. Louis, all pitchers parks, thus, it’s lack of hitting is overstated. On the other side is the Padres, who are averaging six runs a game over that same stretch. However, they played three in Pittsburgh, three against Arizona, three in Atlanta and three in Colorado. Incidentally, in Atlanta they scored seven runs in the three games and scored one and zero runs in two of the three games. In the other one they were down 4-2 in the ninth but scored two in the ninth and two in extra frames. In other words, they were fortunate to leave with a win and could have left scoring three runs in the three games. So, the Padres strong hitting since the break is also overstated. Then we have Chad Billingsley plus a tag against Jon Garland. In four July starts Garland has an ERA of 5.73 with two of those starts coming at home against Houston and Arizona. The other two were at Atlanta and Washington. In 22 frames in July, Garland has walked 11 and struck out 15. In two starts vs the Dodgers this year, he’s walked six and struck out six to go along with a BAA of .333 and an ERA of 4.91. Garland’s numbers are a complete mirage, as this is a guy that has to get lucky to win because he rarely misses anyone’s bat. Chad Billingsley is the opposite of Garland. Here’s a guy with tremendous stuff and whose confidence is soaring when he faces the Padres. He already shut them out once this year and has great career numbers against them that include a 9-4 record with a 2.51 ERA. Current Padre batters have 28 hits in 123 AB’s for a BA of .228. Over the last three years in five starts at Petco, Billingsley has a BAA of .179. Again, Billingsley plus a price over Garland is just plain sweet. Play: Los Angeles +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1.02 over HOUSTON
The Cubbies somehow got right-sided after the break and they’re now on a 7-4 run. Since the break, the Cubs are batting a NL high .316 and they would like nothing more than to give Ted Lilly some run support. Lilly is a ridiculous 3-8 and it’s ridiculous because this guy pitches well enough to win almost every game. Lilly has allowed one run or less in five of his last nine starts. He’s 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 11 starts versus Houston, including 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his last nine. The man can flat out pitch and when his career is all said and done, maybe then folks will sit back, look at his career numbers and realize just how good he really was. For him to have three wins in 17 starts is a crime when you consider a 1.12 WHIP, a .236 BAA and just 28 walks all year in 111 innings. Brett Myers has been a model of consistency all season long. He’s pitched a full six innings in all of his twenty starts this season, which is unheard of. Whether or not Myers is approaching hitters differently than he did a year ago when he gave up a ton of jacks, we don't know. What we do know is that the bulk of his improvement is tied to a steep decline in hr/f. Even if we assume there was an injury problem affecting Myers and throw out last year's data, his historical hr/fly-ball tells us that he's been quite lucky - especially pitching at Minute Maid Park (+13% RHB HR). Myers allowed an amazing 14 HRs in 122 ABs vs. RHB in 2009 (that's the equivalent of a HR per every 11 batters) vs. 4 HR in 277 ABs vs. RHB this season. Well, the Cubbies just saw him six days ago and now they’re seeing beach balls. A Myers blowup is a distinct possibility. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants
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San Francisco hosts the Florida Marlins tonight for the second game of the series at 10:15 PM ET. Florida won the first game of the series and are looking for another winner tonight. Johnson is sent out to the mound by the Marlins and he has been pitching excellent. He has an amazing 0.44 ERA and a 0.984 WHIP in his last three starts and has been pitching great all season with a 1.61 ERA and 0.968 in all of his starts. On the other side of the pitching matchup, Cain starts for the Giants. He has a 3.74 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in his last three starts. Play on Florida tonight and cash in on an easy winner!
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Play on: Florida Marlins
Tony George
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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1.5
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Going to stretch this out for a 3 to 4 run win tonight for the Rangers with Cliff Lee on the hill. Forget the bullpen numbers as Lee is good for at least 7 innings and he is a stud as we all know. Oakland on a nice run here but the Rangers at home with Lee on the hill is too good to pass up. Oakland only batting .256 against southpaws this season and Lee one of the best when he is on his game. Gonzales toes the rubber for Oakland with over a 5 ERA his last 3 and the Rangers hit lefties well, and I like a 5-2 type ballgame tonight and a Rangers win. Lay the run line here and lower the odds.
Rocketman
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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Cincinnati has lost 4 of their last 6 games overall. Milwaukee has won 5 games in a row heading into tonight's action. Edison Volquez is 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA overall this year. Yovani Gallardo is 9-4 with a 2.45 ERA overall this year, 4-3 with a 2.80 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA his last 3 starts. Volquez has a 6.35 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. Gallardo is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight!
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -142
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I'll back the Cards against the struggling Mets with ace Adam Wainwright on the hill. He is 14-5 on the season with an ERA of 1.94, and he enters this contest at the top of his game, having not allowed a run in his last 20 innings of work. In fact, he has only allowed 1 run in his last 35 1/3 innings. The Mets have dropped each of Niese's last 3 starts, and they have also lost their last 7 series openers. Take the Red Birds tonight.
Steve Janus
Pick: Padres -104
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I am taking the Padres over the Dodgers with my free pick on Tuesday. The Padres send Jon Garland to the mound, who has a solid 2.36 ERA in his last three starts. The Padres are an impressive 20-19 at home this season and are playing some good baseball winning 5 of their last 7. Bet the Padres!
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Top Trends For Padres -104
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*SAN DIEGO is 22-9 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season.
*SAN DIEGO is 28-12 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
*LA DODGERS are 3-9 against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Braves +123
Reasons the Braves win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - average hitting team (AVG =.255 to .269) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, playing on Tuesday. This is a 44-23 ML System hitting 65.7% and gaining +36.2 units over the last 5 seasons.
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2.) Tommy Hanson is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Washington. Atlanta did score 4 runs on Stephen Strasburg in 6.2 innings, so they have proven they can hit the young phenom. Bet the Braves on the road.
Frank Jordan
Boston Red Sox vs. LAA Angels
Play: Boston Red Sox
This will be John Lackey's second start against his former team the Angels, but first in LA. Back on May 5th he faced them in Boston and won going 7 inning allowing just 1 run. Boston is finally getting healthy and after they literally knocked newly acquired Dan Haren from the game as Haren got hit with a line drive, the Red Sox smacked around the Angel bullpen on their way to a 6-3 victory. Look for a little bit of a lower scoring game with two stud pitchers on the mound tonight, but in the end with Boston coming out on top. Play Boston
Wunderdog Sports
San Antonio Silver Stars vs. New York Liberty
Play: New York Liberty -7.5
It has become apparent where all the power lies this season in the WNBA, it is in the East. Despite the fact that New York is playing .500 basketball for the season, they reside in the basement of the East. If they were in the West, they would be a lock for the playoffs. Aside from Seattle at 20-2, the rest of the teams in the West are a combined 36-65. San Antonio certainly hasn't shown much this season and when they have had to go into the tough East, on the road, they are not only 0-4, they have been beaten by an average margin of 17.3 points per game! New York is playing better than a .500 team right now at 7-4 in their last 11, and I like them to get the win and cover here.
SEAN MURPHY
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Last night's 19-1 beating at the hands of the Twins was no fluke. The Royals are playing awful baseball right now.
Kansas City has won just three of its last 14 games, allowing at least 10 runs five times over that stretch. Of course getting beat down by the Twins at home is nothing new; the Royals have dropped 35 of their last 51 games against Minnesota at Kauffman Stadium.
Even with slugger Justin Morneau on the D.L., the Twins continue to roll along, winners of eight of their last 11 games. Their offense has suddenly come to life, scoring an incredible 36 runs over their last three games. To put that number in perspective, it's taken the Royals nine games to score their last 36 runs.
Carl Pavano will take the hill for the Twins tonight. He's having a career year, currently 12-6 with a 3.26 ERA and even more impressive 1.01 WHIP. The Twins have won eight of his last nine starts overall.
Pavano is in top form right now, having tossed back-to-back complete games, needing only 104 and 102 pitches to do so. Over his last four starts, spanning 32 innings, he's issued a grand total of just two walks. Home runs were an issue for Pavano earlier this season, but now he's allowed taters in only two of his last six starts.
Since joining the Twins last year, Pavano has posted a 5-2 team record in seven outings against the Royals. He's 2-1 against them this year, including an 8-3 win here in Kansas City, in which he allowed just four hits, no walks, and two earned runs over seven innings of work.
Bruce Chen will counter for the Royals. He had some success when he first joined the Royals rotation this season, but has since hit the proverbial wall. Over his last three starts he's been tagged for 24 hits and 12 earned runs over just 15 innings pitched. The Royals are 0-3 over that span.
Chen didn't fare well in his lone outing against the Twins this season, allowing 10 hits and five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings back on June 10th. He still managed to pick up a win on that day, thanks to receiving nine runs of support from his offense. He can't count on that same level of support from a floundering Royals lineup on Tuesday.
The Twins have their sights set on the top of the A.L. Central division right now, currently just one game back of the White Sox. The Royals will likely be sellers at the trade deadline later this week, stuck in the middle of another lost season. Take Minnesota.
TEDDY COVERS
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Here’s an excerpt from my write-up yesterday supporting the Twins and Royals Over the total. “Minnesota’s offense is clicking right now: 17 runs scored over the past two days; 5.4 runs per game and a .331 batting average against righties since the All Star break. The Royals bullpen behind Grienke is completely spent after an ugly weekend series against the Yankees. No surprise here if Minnesota approaches or exceeds this low total all by themselves.”
The Twins ended up scoring 19 runs last night, sending the game flying Over the total by the fourth inning. Zack Grienke was knocked out of the box early, exacerbating Kansas City’s bullpen woes. And KC’s starter tonight, Bruce Chen, is not likely to shut down the Twins red hot attack. In Chen’s lone start against Minnesota this season, he allowed ten hits and five earned runs.
Chen has only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill while Minnesota is batting .317 against lefties in their last ten games. Minnesota has dominated this series, winning 15 of the last 19 meetings between these two teams. And Twins starter Carl Pavano has been nothing short of brilliant in recent weeks. Pavano has thrown eight quality starts in his last nine trips to the hill, including a shutdown eight inning, two run effort against these same Royals. KC is just 3-11 since their last series before the All Star break, a team worth fading again tonight. 2* Take Minnesota.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago White Sox -1.5 -114
We'll back the White Sox to beat up on the Mariners again Tuesday in blowout fashion. This is a huge mound mismatch in Chicago's favor with Gavin Floyd over Ryan Rowland-Smith. Chicago is 6-1 against Seattle this season, 9-1 in 10 home meetings with the Mariners over the last 3 seasons, and 24-7 in their last 31 home meetings in this series overall. Floyd is 3-2 with a miniscule 1.16 ERA in his last 9 starts. Rowland-Smith is 1-9 with a 6.27 ERA this season. Take the White Sox on the Run Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds +142
The Reds are showing excellent value in the underdog role tonight when you consider they have won 6 of their last 7 with the Brewers. Plus, they are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 6-0 in Volquez's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Lastly, the Brewers are just 1-4 in Gallardo's last 5 starts vs. the Reds. Take Cincy.