Jack Jones
Twins/Royals UNDER 9
After the Twins exploded for 19 runs on the Royals yesterday, the odds makers have set this number too high Tuesday. Both Carl Pavano and Bruce Chen are two of the most underrated starters in the big leagues this season. Pavano is 12-6 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.009 WHIP this season, including 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last 9 starts. Chen is 5-4 with a 4.38 ERA this season for Kansas City.
Minnesota is a very profitable 24-7 to the UNDER in road games after scoring 12 runs or more since 1997. At the same time, Kansas City is 18-6 to the UNDER off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pavano's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER in this AL Central match-up Tuesday.
Dan Bebe
LOS (-103) vs SDP
Jon Garland is a ticking time bomb. I wrote it in my daily blog last night, and I'll write it here again, today.
This guy is just a mess waiting to happen, and somehow, for most of this season, he's been able to avoid catastrophe on the mound. He puts too many runners on base, he doesn't have a particularly impressive arsenal of pitches, but just seems to give teams fits when he runs up his opponents' "LOB" numbers in every contest.
Of course, when you play with fire for 6 straight months, eventually you're going to, at the very least, singe a few hairs off your forearm. Honestly, I'm left consistently scratching my head every time I see that Garland went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs. It won't last.
In fact, if you look at his season, there has been a very slow, steady, downward progression. He's not giving up a ton of runs, but he hasn't gone beyond 6 innings in any of his last 4 starts, and hasn't gone 7 innings since early June. Only 1 of his last 4 starts has been a quality outing, his walks are up, his strikeouts remain extremely low, and he's surrendered 5 homers in those 4 starts. And yet, somehow, the Padres have won his last 2 starts. That's a testament to the team, but also does us a favor by concealing, to some degree, that Garland has been putting his team in tough spots and the Padres are finding ways to fight out.
Today, they won't be so lucky. Chad Billingsley has been a Padres (and Giants) killer in his time with the Dodgers, probably why the team and city continue to embrace the kid despite his issues in the postseason. He went 7.1 shutout innings against San Diego this year already, and in his career, Chad is 9-4 with a 2.51 ERA against San Diego. I know what you're thinking - "but the Padres have stunk." That's true, but even when they were bad, San Diego gave the Dodgers fits, and Chad found a way to beat them.
My one concern with this game, and the reason it remains a Freebie and not a bigger Top Play is that the Dodgers haven't been hitting at all. I mean, just anemic beyond anemic, offensively. However, they've found ways to win low-scoring games against the Mets, and the finale against the Giants, and I think they get it done again tonight against a division rival.
Dodgers take this one 3-2 or 4-2.