JIM FEIST
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ATLANTA BRAVES / FLORIDA MARLINS
TAKE UNDER
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The Braves are better in the pitching department than on offense, on a 16-10 run under the total. They go with their ace here in Jair Jurrjens (2.67 ERA), who has been red-hot, with a 3-0 record and a 1.37 ERA his last three starts. He's a good strikeout pitcher and faces a free swinging Florida team. Marlin righty Ricky Nolasco has been hot of late, as well, with 6 walks and 23 strikeouts his last 3 starts (18 innings). He has a sizzling 105-23 K to walk ratio overall. Look for a defensive duel, play the Braves/Marlins under the total.
DAVE COKIN
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS / SEATTLE MARINERS
TAKE SEATTLE MARINERS
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The Mariners are on the verge of falling out of the AL West chase. But Jared Washburn is pitching absolutely great ball, and he's listed as small chalk tonight as Seattle hosts the Blue Jays and rookie lefty Rzepczynski. He's been effective to date, but I can't resist the red hot Washburn at this number, so the Mariners are the choice.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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MIN (-120) vs CWS
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While Mark Buehrle tries to put the hoopla of his last start behind him, he'll look for a better effort against the Twins after giving up a season-high eight runs in 3 1-3 innings of a 13-7 loss at Minnesota on July 12. Though he's 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA against the Twins this season, Buehrle has lost his last three outings at the Metrodome; that being said, I look for Buehrle to have a letdown today and believe we're getting great value on the home side! Minnesota's Scott Baker (8-7, 5.04) tries for a third straight win overall and second this month over Chicago. The right-hander allowed five runs in 6 1-3 innings to beat Buehrle on July 12, but has pitched better in two starts since the All-Star break as he's allowed three runs and struck out 14 in 13 innings. Look for the TWINS to improve to 13-6 (+4.9 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150!
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
300 - 196 run 60 % 48-25 run here
TUES KC Royals
;D 8) 😮
Tommy Gill
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Cardinals ML -125 for 3 units
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The Cardinals have been making moves to try to stay atop of NL Central with the additions of Holliday DeRosa and Lugo to make a playoff push. This is probably the biggest test in how they are going to do against the best team in the NL in the Dodgers. The pitching matchup today is Wainwright (11-6 2.95 ERA) vs. Billingsley (10-5 3.72 ERA). I dont know if it just me by Billingsley has not been impressive at all in his last few starts. He did pitch well against Cincy at home giving up 2 runs in that game but looking at his 6 games prior there has to be some concern for the Dodgers. In those games he gave up 6,5,3,3,5,4 runs in those contests and the worst one against Houston giving up 6 runs in 1.2 innings pitched. Wainwright has been the best pitcher for the Cardinals in my opinion this year and he has had 6 quality starts in a row giving up 2 ER or less in that span averaging over 7 innings pitched. The Dodgers have really struggled in St. Louis in the past being 8-25 in their last 33 meetings their and that gives them a win percentage to this stat of 25%. I believe we are getting the better pitching in this game with Wainwright and Cardinals to win today.
Matt Fargo
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Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
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The Mets won last night as rather hefty underdogs and I believe they can do it again. New York is having a very disappointing season as it is four games under .500 and the playoffs are not looking good at this point. It has won three straight games and 13 of its next 15 games are against teams from the National League West, excluding the Dodgers, so if there is a time to make a late season push, this is it. The Rockies are one of the surprises this year as they still holding onto the lead in the wild card race, a game ahead of division rival San Francisco. Most surprising has been its road success where it is three games over .500 but these big road favorite prices are out of line. Mike Pelfrey takes the hill for the Mets and after a great start, he has been struggling. He is coming off a quality start in his last game and he can ride that into this one. He has been solid at home with a 4.32 ERA with five of his 10 starts being quality versions. He faced the Rockies twice last season and did not allow a run through 13.2 innings. Jason Marquis toes the rubber for Colorado and he in on a run of four straight quality starts and he is definitely one of the big surprises of this starting staff. The run could easily end here as he has not had great success against the Mets of late as he has posted a 7.04 ERA over his last four starts against them. Colorado has averaged just 3.2 rpg over his last five starts. The Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 games as a road favorite while the Mets are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150. With Pelfrey, they are 6-2 in his last eight starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
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3* New York Mets
Jorge Gonzalez
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Look for the Dodgers to bounce back here against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers lost to the Cardinals last night 6-1 but did have 11 hits in the game, 9 coming off Chris carpenter. The Dodgers faltered once they had men in scoring position. As a team the Dodgers were 3-15 with men in scoring position. The Dodgers hope to rebound behind Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.72). The righty bounced back from his worst start of the year to hold Cincinnati to two runs while striking out seven in six innings of a 6-2 victory last week. The Cardinals will counter with Adam Wainwright (11-6, 2.95 ERA). The Dodgers are 21-7 as an underdog of +150 or less and have to good of an offense to be held to one run in back -to-back games.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins +110
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Both of these teams enter this series playing well, but I'll side with the home team at an underdog price tonight. One of the major keys is that the Braves are 0-7 in Jurrjens' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series while the Marlins are 18-6 in Nolasco's last 24 starts during game 1 of a series. Research also shows that the Braves are in a letdown spot tonight as they are only 1-14 in road games after a win by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons and 1-10 in road games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are a perfect 8-0 in Nolasco's last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. He's coming off a 2-hit gem in San Diego and I like him to lead the Fish to a victory this evening.
Jr Tips
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PHILLIES vs. PADRES
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The Philadelphia Phillies haven't gotten exactly what they expected from reigning World Series MVP Cole Hamels as the left-handed ace is 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA, but He is reclaiming his 2008 form after he held San Diego to three runs and four hits in seven innings of a 9-4 victory in his last outing Thursday.The Diamondbacks starter Haren is 10-5 with a 2.14 ERA leading the majors in opponents' batting average (.194), and he's the only Diamondbacks starter with a winning record. Haren has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 10 straight starts before giving up four in five innings Thursday over Pittsburgh improving to 8-1 in games started by Haren since June 7th.The Phillies are remarkable record on the road as they have improved to 30-15 outside Philadelphia with four straight road wins including a 6-2 victory last night. Hamels is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in two starts against Arizona so runs will be hard to manufature tonight for both teams against these dominate aces.
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TAKE UNDER 7 1/2
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels
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The Cleveland Indians have been riding high on their road trip outscoring their opponents 52-27, but that is about to end when they face Angels ace Jered Weaver. Weaver has a 9-2 TSR at home this season as well as carrying a 2.51 ERA. The Angels are also very good after they blow a save in the previous game winning in eight of 10 tries. Los Angeles is also 20-10 against left-handed starters this season. Go with the Angels.
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Play on: LA Angels
Chris Jordan
Los Angeles at ST. LOUIS -125
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I am siding against major league-leading Los Angeles tonight, and will look for the Cardinals to deliver another blow to the men in blue.
The Redbirds are on positive runs of 5-1 at home, 5-1 against the National League West and 16-4 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. They’ve owned the Dodgers most recently, going 42-20 overall and 25-8 at home.
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If I’m going to list a pitcher in this one, it’ll be St. Louis’s Adam Wainwright, as the Cardinals have won seven of his last nine starts, including four of the last five. Last Thursday in Washington D.C. he gave up one run on eight hits while striking out seven over six innings, as the Cardinals won 4-1 in a rain-shortened game.
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Wainwright has thrown at least six innings in 19 straight trips to the hill and lasted seven innings or more 12 times. Though he’s 3-5 in 11 home starts this season, he’s sporting a rather respectable 2.37 ERA. And when he toes the slab, the Cards are on winning runs of 35-16 overall, 23-3 against winning teams and 19-8 at home.
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1♦ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
LT Profits
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
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The Under is now 19-7-2 in the last 28 Pittsburgh Pirates games, as they continue to get decent pitching but struggle offensively, and we look for that to continue tonight when they visit the San Francisco Giants.
The Pirates have been poor on the road all year, where they are 17-37 while averaging only 3.85 runs per game and batting just .239 as a team. Most alarming is the fact that they have actually gotten worse as they starting lineup at the beginning of the season keeps getting traded away, and they have scored a grand total of two runs in their last three games.
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That said, Pittsburgh starting pitcher Charlie Morton is quite capable of at least keeping the Pirates in this game. He has made seven starts for the Bucs since being acquired from the Atlanta Braves, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in five of them. His best outing as a Pirate came against these Giants when he allowed three hits in seven scoreless innings, marking his second Quality Start in two starts vs. San Francisco in his brief career.
The oft maligned gets the nod for the Giants here, and he appears to have straightened himself out, allowing two runs or less in three of his last four starts. He is also three for three in Quality Starts vs. Pittsburgh since coming into the National League including one outing this season, where he allowed two runs on six hits in 6.2 innings. Given the current state of the Pirates lineup, we see no reason why Zito cannot continue his resurgence here.
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Thus, look for both offenses to struggle at AT&T Park tonight.
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Pick: Pirates/Giants Under 8.5
The Spread
Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins, 7:10PM ET
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Pick: Florida
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, 8:05PM ET
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
Texas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Pick: Detroit
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40PM ET
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Pick: Arizona
Jeff Alexander Sports
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1 Unit on Phillies/D-backs UNDER 7.5
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Dan Haren has been unbelievable this season with a 2.14 ERA so it comes as no surprise that the Under is 10-4 in Haren's last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies send Cole Hamels to the hill, and while he hasn't been the pitcher we saw dominate in the playoffs last fall, he figures to fare well tonight against one of the worst lefty pitching teams in baseball. The Snakes are scoring just 3.7 runs per game against lefty starters on the season. The Under is 5-1 in Hamels' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Under in this battle of aces.
Wunderdog
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Los Angeles at Mineesota
Pick: OVER 152.5
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The oddsmakers have had trouble keeping pace with the accelerated scoring in the WNBA as we have seen the season tally reach 59% in favor of OVERS this season. A league that once saw teams struggle to average 70 points per game, with just one or two teams achieving that over a season, has risen to a league with all teams averaging 70+. The Minnesota Lynx is near the top of that offensive surge. When playing at home, they have posted 82.2 points per game at home, and reached 87 in a game earlier this year at Los Angeles. The Sparks have gotten healthier as the season has progressed, and after not going over 80 points in any of their first seven games, they have now toppled the 80-point mark in three of their last six. The Lynx sport a 48-18 mark to the OVER in their last 66 games can not be ignored here. And with six of the last seven between these clubs going OVER in games played at Minnesota, I'm going with the OVER in this one.