DAVE MALINSKY
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Atlanta Braves @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Under 8.5 WSEX
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Ricky Nolasco continues to bring much better stuff to the table than his 5.42 full-season ERA indicates. Jair Jurrjens continues to throw at a consistently high level. With all bullpen arms fresh behind the starters, we have excellent value to work with here in a game in which they allow us to have 8 as a “win” number.
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In nine starts since returning from that stint in the Minors, Nolasco has worked to a 5-2/2.73 tune, and those are the only numbers that matter to us in terms of measuring him. He has been every bit of that, with a 1.01 WHIP and a sparkling ratio of 68 strikeouts vs. only 12 walks, and only once in his last seven starts has his PPI gone above 15.5. He has allowed only eight runs in 36 home innings since the return, and after having twice as many strikeouts as base-runners allowed in shutting out San Diego in his last outing, the confidence level will be high for this key division showdown.
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Meanwhile Jurrjens has been a model of consistency in his young career, bringing a rare savvy for a pitcher of his age. He held the opposition to three earned runs or less in 21 of 30 starts LY, and so far this season it has been 18 of 21, with two or less being allowed in 16 of those games. In two starts since the All Star break he has twice as many strikeouts (10) as hits allowed (five), while also walking only three batters, and in his only start against the Marlins this season he got a “W” from this mound after allowing only three hits in seven innings.
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With both starters more than capable of working deep into the night here the middle relief arms can be taken out of play, and that means a bridge right to the rested set-up men and closers.
STEPHEN NOVER
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Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Washington Nationals
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It's always tough to pull the trigger on the Washington Nationals, but this is one of the top value plays of the month.
The Brewers are huge favorites despite not playing well, being down mentally and starting Charlie Villanueva.
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Milwaukee entered July with a two-game lead in the NL Central Division. They are now four games out and clearly pressing. That's what a 7-15 mark in July will do. The Brewers ever loyal fans have lost their patience. They were booing their team last night.
Milwaukee's problem has been terrible pitching. The Brewers have yielded six runs or more nine times this month.
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Say what you want about the Nationals, but the team does have hitting and power. The Nationals actually are playing good ball, having won three in a row and five of their last seven.
The Nationals are starting 23-year-old Colin Balester, one of their young talented pitchers who probably isn't ready for prime time yet. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are great hitters, but the Brewers as a whole are very poor situational hitters. Jason Kendall is an automatic out at catcher. So Balester may be OK.
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He certainly can't be a worse option than who the Brewers are starting - Villanueva. The last time Villanueva started was May 18 of last year. He has not pitched more than three innings in a row all season.
Villanueva has been pitching worse than any Brewer, which is saying a lot. He's given up 10 runs in his last 4 2/3 innings. He has a 10.80 ERA this month and a 10.71 ERA at Miller Park.
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Brewers manager Ken Macha said Villanueva will be on a pitch count of about 60 pitches. That's probably not going to take him past the fourth inning, which puts the Brewers' battered and brutal relief corps back into play.
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This is a one-unit play for me.
Tom Freese
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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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San Francisco is 38-16 as home favorites and they are 9-2 their last 11 home games vs. teams with a losing record. The Giants are 36-17 at home vs. righty starters and they are 7-1 their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of under 40%. Pittsburgh is 19-47 their last 66 road games and they are 5-11 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Pirates are 1-6 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters and they are 12-41 their last 53 games vs. winning teams. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO
MTi Sports
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Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Houston Astros
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The Astros are 5-0 when Roy Oswalt starts after a quality start and the Cubs are 0-9 when Ryan Dempster starts after a quality start. Consider Houston.
Jeff Saad
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Dodgers at Cards
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A good duel of pitchers here in St. Louis, a pair of strikeout artists. LA starter Chad Billingsley has fanned 126 in 133 innings and has a 3.18 career ERA against St. Louis. St. Louis righty Adam Wainwright (11-6) is having a fine season, with a 2.95 ERA fanning 130 in 143! innings. He is also hot, with a 2.14 ERA his last four starts. There will not be much in the way of offense, play the Dodgers/Cardinals Under the total.
ROCKETMAN
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Houston @ Chicago Cubs
Play: Houston
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Roy Oswalt is 6-4 with a 3.66 ERA overall this year, 4-2 with a 3.37 ERA on the road and 1-0 with a 2.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Dempster is 4-9 with a 4.80 ERA overall vs Houston since 1997. Astros are 15-6 in their last 21 games following a loss. Astros are 5-0 in Oswalts last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Astros are 5-0 in Oswalts last 5 starts. Astros are 5-0 in Oswalts last 5 starts on grass. Astros are 5-0 in Oswalts last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Astros are 8-2 in Oswalts last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Astros are 4-1 in Oswalts last 5 road starts. Astros are 4-1 in Oswalts last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cubs are 1-5 in Dempsters last 6 starts. Cubs are 1-5 in Dempsters last 6 starts on grass. Cubs are 1-6 in Dempsters last 7 starts vs. National League Central. Cubs are 0-5 in Dempsters last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Cubs are 0-9 in Dempsters last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Cubs are 0-4 in Dempsters last 4 starts vs. Astros. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Spartan
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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
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I am suggesting a small wager on the Giants as they continue their series with the Pirates. Barry Zito takes the ball tonight for Bruce Bochy opposing Charlie Morton of the Bucs. Zito was very strong in his last outing scattering 3 hits and allowing a single tally in 7 innings of solid work against the Braves. He has been a truly strong second half pitcher his entire career posting an impressive 71-37 career mark after the break. Morton has been in the rotation for the Pirates for a couple of months now and has shown promise but has battled inconsistency throughout. At -128, I find the price reasonable!
DAVE PRICE
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1 Unit on NY Yankees -133
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The Yanks are on a tear, having won 10 of their last 11, and they get my support tonight at a reasonable price with Sabathia on the rubber, who is 7-1 lifetime when starting against Tampa Bay with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.034. Kazmir has really struggled this season, especially at home where he is just 1-3 with an ERA of 9.50 and a WHIP of 1.889 in 7 stars. The Yanks are torching lefty starters this season, hitting over .300 against them and scoring 5.8 runs per game. That kind of offensive production has helped them achieve a phenomenal 21-11 mark against southpaw starters this season. Tampa Bay has not been nearly as good against the lefty starters, scoring just 4.8 runs per game against them and hitting just .260. I'll back the Yanks in this battle of southpaws tonight.
Freddy Wills
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Under 7.5
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Despite how well the Phillies have hit vs. RHP as of late and over their career they will face Danny Harren for the 1st time for some of the key players on this team. Ryan Howard has never faced him as Harren has no pitched against them since 2003 when he was with the Cardinals. In limited at bats Rollins, Utley, Werth, and Feliz have a combined 5-33 (.151average) against Harren. The line opened up with the Diamondbacks being favored at -130, but has dropped significantly to -112 and I think it is not because Vegas expects Harren to pitch poorly but rather for Cole Hamels to have a great outing. Last night another Phillies lefty went 6.2 IP giving up 0ER. Cole Hamels in his career is 2-0 12.2IP giving up 3ER vs. the Diamondbacks. He has struggled a bit on the road, but he'll be going up against an offense I think he'll have success against with his change up. Hamels has just 5 BB's in his last 5 starts something I think he'll build on here today facing a team he should be able to beat. The Under is 10-4 in Harren's last 14 vs. a team with a winning records. A stat I love because it just proves he gets up for big games against winning teams. Expect a pitching duel here today folks.
John Ryan
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto as they face Seattle set to start at 10:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 62-37 making 30.2 units since 1997. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that is a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. Toronto is 17-7 (+10.5 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season; 15-7 (+10.9 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 3 seasons. Seattle not in a good spot noting they are just 14-22 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in home games versus a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. Seattle starter Washburn is just 13-28 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Toronto starter Rzepczynski has been quite good – better than management though – in his first 4 starts since his contract was purchased from Las Vegas. He has tremendous movement with all of his pitches as a result has some control issues. But, Batters are hitting only 177 against him and it will take at least 4 more starts before scouting reports catch up with this young talented starter. Washburn has been quite good in July sporting a 1.45 ERA, but 4 Toronto players are batting over 300 against him in their careers. Players are batting 298 on Washburn's fastball and Toronto has a lineup of hitters that can work the count in order to get FB situations. Take Toronto.
King Creole
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HOU (+110) vs CHC
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Throughout the course of a very profitable 2009 season, Speedee and his canine pals at the DAWG POUND HOTLINE always look for the best value in a starting pitcher that's in better current form then his favored counterpart. And when you find stud ROY OSWALT at an Underdog price in good form... you RUN (not walk) up to the betting window.
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Rick Dempster gets the call for the host Cubbies. He enters tonight's start on a current record of 1-5 in his last 6 overall starts. Opponents are hitting .409 vs him in his last 3 overall. He's faced the division rival Astros seven times since the 2003 season. And he;s gone 1-6 in those 7 teams starts. That includes a PERFECT 0-2 already in this 2009 season. His inconsistency is actually pretty consistent! Dempster has gone a PERFECT 0-9 dating back to last year when pitching off a Quality Start. Also 0-5 in Game Two of a series... 0-5 when the OU line is 7-8.5 runs... and 1-6 in his last 7 starts vs fellow NL Central division opponents. Meanwhile, ROY OSWALT enters tonight's start on a streak in which he has won EACH of his last 5 starts in a row. ERA during that span is a sparkling 2.00. He's allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 6 starts. Opponents are hitting only .235 vs him. His K/BB ratio of 37-7 in those starts indicates solid 'Play ON' potential. His ERA vs the Cubbies in the last 2 seasons is only 2.53.
Wunderdog
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Toronto at Seattle
Pick: Toronto +100
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The Toronto Blue Jays were in first place in the tough American League East for awhile, but went into a tailspin that saw them go 6-17 and dip below the .500 mark. They have now gotten it turned around winning their last two, and whipping up on Felix Hernandez who was untouchable over the past two months. They will get another hot pitcher in Jerrod Washburn tonight, but the Mariners are in a colossal struggle right now. The M's have dropped four straight, but that isn't all the story. They have been manhandled to the tune of 42-10 in the four games. For as good as he has been lately, Washburn is just 16-36 in his last 52 starts on grass. This looks like a live dog here and I'll play the Blue Jays in this one.
Yankee Capper
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Chicago Cubs -110
Kansas City Royals +110
Chicago White Sox +115
Pittsburgh/San Francisco Over 8
Frank Jordan
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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Bannister is 6-7 with an era under 4, but sometimes he simply doesn't get the run support he needs to pick up the win. Baltimore is sending a pitcher who is 1-8 with an era over 6.50. In this one look for the Royal bats to be all over Baltimore pitching making it an easy win for Bannister and Kansas City. Play Kansas City
LEE KOSTROSKI
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Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under 10
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Incredibly the ‘under’ is 44-15-2 in the last 61 Texas games yet there can not be a significant adjustment to the totals since the Ballpark in Arlington has such a high-scoring reputation. Texas has the 7th highest ballpark OPS in baseball but only 9.5 runs per game are being scored. The ‘under’ is 33-16-2 in Texas home games and 33-17 in Detroit road games making for a perfect trend storm lining up for another low scoring game on Tuesday.
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Lucas French has stepped into the Detroit rotation and immediately done a solid job for the Tigers. He is just 1-1 on the season but he did not allow more than two runs in any of his four starts. French owns a 2.22 ERA and he is backed by a Detroit bullpen that owns a 2.42 ERA over the last ten games. Both Detroit and Texas are batting only .234 as a team in the last the games and the Tigers have scored five or fewer runs in nine of the last ten games. Texas has topped five runs just twice in the last ten games and in a rare departure from past seasons the Rangers have been carried by pitching this season. The Rangers are batting just .219 against left-handers in that span as well which should give French an even greater advantage.
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The Texas bullpen owns a 2.13 ERA over the last ten games and since early June the Rangers have received great relief pitching. The Rangers own 28 saves on the season in 35 save situations, the second fewest number of blown saves in baseball. Vicente Padilla has had some extra rest to recover from the flu but should be ready to deliver another steady effort. Padilla has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last ten starts and the ‘under’ is 11-5 in games that he has started. Both teams are struggling to score and both starting pitchers are capable of delivering very solid performances.