LARRY NESS
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cards may only be 2-2 since acquiring Matt Holliday but he's driven in a run in each of four games with St Louis, batting .571 with five doubles, three walks and three runs scored. LA still owns MLB's best record (62-37) but last night's 6-1 loss against the Cards drops the Dodgers to 3-15 in St Louis since the start of the 2004 season, including a 2-9 mark at four-year-old Busch Stadium. LA's Billingsley is 10-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 21 starts this year (team is 14-7) and is coming off a 6-2 win in his last outing. However, that was his first win in seven starts, as he had gone 0-2 with a 6.5 ERA in his previous six starts (team was 2-4). As for Wainwright (11-6 with a 2.95 ERA in 21 starts / team is also 14-7), he tries to match Jason Marquis' 12 wins (the most in the NL), although Marquis is also scheduled to pitch tonight (at the Mets). Wainwright had some early-season troubles with a 4.35 ERA through his first seven starts but he owns 11 quality starts in his last 14, including a stretch in which he's posted a sparkling 1.59 ERA over his last six outings, not ONCE allowing more than two ERs in any start. Stick with the Cards tonight.
Info Plays
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3* on L.A. Dodgers +106
Reasons why the Dodgers win:
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1.) L.A. is the owner of the best record in baseball, and any time you can get this team as an underdog it is a wise move to pull the trigger. This is especially the case with Ace Chad Billingsley on the mound. Billingsley is a 10-game winner with a 3.72 ERA on the season. He is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA on the road this season.
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2.) The Dodgers are a PERFECT 10-0 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. They won’t be losing 3 in a row tonight. Also, L.A. is 17-8 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. Bet the Dodgers on the road.
John Martin
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1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -115
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Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He has been consistently brilliant all season, and even better of late. Jurrjens is 9-7 with a 2.67 ERA through 23 starts this season. In the month of July, Jurrjens is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA where opposing hitters are batting .162. Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA over his last 3 starts as well. Ricky Nolasco has been far from consistent, compiling a 7-7 record with a 5.42 ERA on the season. He's been anything but dominant against Atlanta. Nolasco posted a 10.57 ERA in three losses to the Braves in 2008, allowing 10 homers in 15 1-3 innings. McCann is 7 for 19 (.368) with two homers against Nolasco, while Chipper Jones is 9 for 16 (.563) with three home runs. The home team is 0-5 in the season series between the Braves and Marlins. Jurrjens is 9-1 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with the Braves as the favorite.
Black Widow
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1* on Braves/Marlins Under 8.5
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We have two very hot starting pitchers tonight in Florida with Jair Jurrjens and Ricky Nolasco. Jurrjens is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in five July starts, holding hitters to a .162 average. Nolasco is 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA since June 7, averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The Braves are 28-12 UNDER (+14.3 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season. Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER (+11.3 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Florida is 20-9 UNDER (+10.1 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The Marlins are 23-9 UNDER (+12.7 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 8.5 runs.
Rob Homyak
5 Units on Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs
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Righthander Vin Mazzaro will take the mound for the Athletics to start this game. Mazzaro is 2-7 this season with a 4.75 ERA.
The Red Sox will counter Mazzaro with Clay Buchholz. Righthander Buchholz has a 3.72 ERA to go along with a 1-1 record this season.
Dustin Pedroia went 2-for-4 with a big fly and two runs batted in, as the Red Sox defeated the Athletics 8-3 on Monday night.
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Boston won as -270 home favorites as the game played OVER the 8.5-run total posted by sportsbooks.
Jed Lowrie also drove in two runs for the Red Sox, while winning pitcher Josh Beckett gave up three runs over seven innings for Boston.
Kurt Suzuki knocked in two runs for Oakland, as Trevor Cahill was tagged for six runs over five innings to take the loss for the Athletics.
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Tonight's starter for Oakland, Vin Mazzaro, is 0-7 over his last 8 starts. 2-7 with a 4.75 ERA and faces Boston for the first time.
Boston has won three straight over Oakland and has captured nine of the last 10 in the series at Fenway Park.
OAKLAND is 18-39 (-17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
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BOSTON is 146-85 (+31.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Oakland
Head to Head
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Athletics are 8-23 in the last 31 meetings in Boston.
Athletics are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
Umpire Trends - Adrian Johnson
Home team is 6-1 in Johnsons last 7 games behind home plate.
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Home team is 5-2 in Johnsons last 7 Tuesday games behind home plate.
GoodFella
LOS (+100) vs STL
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LA Dodgers are 10-0 this season after back to back losses, and tonight fits this situation once again-
Wainwright has been great this month, as his 1.57 ERA for July proves, however he is just 3-5 in 11 home starts this season, as the Cards have struggled to give him run support. Wainwright has also struggled vs the Dodgers in his short career: 3 starts, 1-2 record, 4.43 ERA, 22.3 IP, 11 ER, 23 hits, 9 BB, 15 K's-
Billingsley is coming off a great start vs the Reds in his last start: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 hits, 1 BB, 7 K's & he has had good success vs the Cards in his career: 3 starts, 3.18 ERA, 17 IP, 6 ER, 18 hits, 10 BB, 14 K's-
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Billingsley has pitched very well on the road this season: 3-1 record, 3.38 ERA & a WHIP of 1.155-
LA has the bullpen advantage for the season and in both teams last 5 games: LA Dodgers Team Bullpen for the Year= 3.27 ERA & a 1.234 WHIP. LA Dodgers team bullpen L/5 games= 17 IP, 10 runs, 15 hits, 6 BB, 1.235 WHIP-
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St. Louis team bullpen for the season= 4.15 ERA & a 1.329 WHIP. St. Louis team bullpen L/5 games= 11.3 IP, 14 ER, 21 hits, 12 BB, 1.941 WHIP-
For St. Louis ONLY Holliday and Pujols, have more than 6 AB's vs Billingsley during their career: Holliday is (4-16, .250 AVG, 3 HR's) Pujols is (2-7, .286 AVG)-
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For the Dodgers, these 4 starters have more than 6 AB's vs Wainwright in their career: R. Martin (5-8, .625 AVG, 2 2B's) Furcal (5-9, .556 AVG, 3B) Either (3-9, .333 AVG, 2B) Loney (1-7, .143 AVG, HR)-
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Bottom line for me here guys, I like the Dodgers to get it done in this spot tonight, and I really like the bullpen advantage we have tonight for this one-
Drew Gordon
Colorado -130 at NY METS
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Now on a 33-19 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Colorado/NY Mets match up...
So the Mets have won 3 in a row and all of sudden their backers are getting excited... Hold your horses boys, as one quick way to cool down this Mets offense is to have them face 12-game winner Jason Marquis.
The Rockies ace has been on fire of late, going 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA over his L6 starts, and that was with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand. In fact, he was forced to alter his grip against the Padres in his last one, but has since then skipped a start, and is now back to his original grip. His career numbers vs the Mets aren't great, but that pales in comparison to the recent efforts of his counterpart, Pelfrey.
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Speaking of Mike Pelfrey, the Mets righty has struggled mightily of late, going 1-3 with an ugly 8.02 ERA over his L4 starts! He has been better at Citi Field, but regardless, he'll be facing a Rockies offense that is averaging 5.0 runs per game against righties away! Don't be fooled by his recent efforts against the Nats or Reds, because when he faced a "real" offense (ala Dodgers & Braves), he got crushed... More of the same tonight.
Finally, how many times do the Mets have to burn you before you learn your lesson? Guys, New York is just 6-14 in their last 20 games following a win, and facing a now healthy Jason Marquis isn't going to help that number! In the end, the Mets got a unlikely come-from-behind win last night on a late grand slam by Tatis, but this time around, they won't be nearly as lucky against the Rockies ace. While the same simply cannot be said for the struggling Pelfrey, who runs into trouble once agin tonight. Rockies roll!
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Take Colorado behind Marquis over the NY Mets and Pelfrey in this MLB match up.
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2♦ COLORADO
Michael Cannon
Kansas City +110 at BALTIMORE
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Take the Royals for the road win over the Orioles.
Brian Bannister will start for Kansas City and he’s pitched well despite his 6-7 record. The right-hander has a 3.76 ERA on the year and allowed just two hits over eight innings in a 4-0 win over Baltimore in his only lifetime appearance against them in May, 2008.
The Orioles will counter with rookie Jason Berken, who is 1-8 with a 6.55 ERA on the year. The right-hander hasn’t won since making his debut on May 26.
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I don’t see Berken reversing his misfortunes tonight.
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Take the Royals as they grab the road win.
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3♦ KANSAS CITY
Scott Delaney
I’m taking CC Sabathia all the way to the bank tonight, as he and the red-hot Yankees know damn well they need to win this series while the lowly Athletics are visiting Beantown to play the Red Sox. Last thing the Yankees need is to allow Boston to gain ground in the American League East.
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New York cruised to an easy 11-4 victory in last night’s series opener, improving to 10-1 in its last 11 games overall and 9-3 in its last 12 on the road. In addition, the first-place Yankees are on a slew of positive runs, including 46-21 overall, 7-1 in A.L. East play and 16-5 against winning teams.
In this series, after last night’s win, the Yankees hold a 5-4 edge in this rivalry this season while the road team is on a 6-2 run.
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As for Sabathia, the Yanks have won two straight behind the big southpaw for the first time since nabbing three in a row back in May. He comes in after allowing three runs on nine hits in seven innings en route to a 6-3 home win over the Athletics. Sabathia has been decent on the road this season, sporting a 6-4 mark with a 3.33 ERA in 11 starts with a suitcase in hand. Even better, he’s 7-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 career starts against these Rays.
All Yankees tonight, as I list Sabathia only and cruise to the easy win.
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2♦ YANKEES