Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday July, 3

Scott Spreitzer

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

With a little more run support, Nats' starter Jordan Zimmerman would likely have a spot on the NL's all star roster. The righty has been outstandning all season, but has yet to register a win in seven home starts (0-3) despite a 3.25 ERA & 1.13 WHIP. But with the way the Nationals have been hitting and scoring of late, I expect Zimmerman to lead his team to a win on Tuesday, at the very least. Washington has been red-hot at the plate, averaging over 8 rpg in their last six contests. They'll face Tim Lincecum tonight and while Skinny Timmy has looked a bit better in his last two starts, I'm not yet "buying." Lincecum has been smacked around for an ERA approaching 6 in his last four starts against Washington. And while he did fare better in his last two outings, he has not shown command when pitching out of the stretch this season - and he's still leaving those 91 mph fastballs too close to the middle of the plate. Doing so against the hot-hitting Nats could lead to a short outing. The Giants have won just 5 of Lincecum's last 22 starts and they're on a 2-9 slide when he toes the road rubber. Meanwhile, the Nationals are on a 20-8 run as home chalk. I'm recommending a play on the Nationals on Tuesday.

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona was out free play on Monday and they went down. Tonight they will look to bounce back knowing that they are 18-1 as a home favorite off a 1 run win in a game where they were trailing by 2 or more runs in their starting pitchers last outing. The Angle is nice but there is also a nice 18-5 system that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored loss by 2 or more runs at -140 or higher, if they scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits while stranding 5 or more men, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 2 or more runs, while scoring 5 or more runs with 10 or more men left on base with No errors. San Diego is 0-4 this year in game 2 of a road series off a game one win. Arizona has won 14 of the last 19 here and the pitching looks even with Cashner and Bauer. Take Arizona tonight.

Matt Fargo

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
PLAY: New York Yankees -114

Something is going to have to give tonight in Tampa Bay as the Rays have won eight straight home meetings against the Yankees while New York pitcher Ivan Nova is a perfect 6-0 on the road this year with the Yankees going a perfect 8-0 in his eight road outings. We used the Rays in this spot last night but we will back the Yankees as the stronger pitching gets the edge over recent team history. Even with the loss, New York is a powerful 27-10 over their last 37 games. The Rays showed a lot to us last night as they trailed early but fought back to pull out the one-run victory. Things will not be as easy for the offense tonight as they had trouble getting to Freddy Garcia and it only gets tougher tonight. The offense has been a problem all season as Tampa Bay is hitting just .232 overall which is the second lowest average in baseball and it has actually been worse at home with a .221 average, tied for third worst in the Majors. As mentioned, Nova has been outstanding on the road and in addition to his perfect record, he has a 3.44 ERA in those eight starts with five of those being quality outings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts, posting a 1.59 ERA in those games while going 4-0. the Yankees have lost only three of his 15 starts all year and the last two were by a single run. He is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts against the Rays and the Yankees are 12-0 in his last 12 road starts against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay sends ace James Shields to the hill and he has been anything but an ace this year. He has a 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 16 starts with only eight of those going quality. His ERA improves slightly at home but his ratio goes up to 1.51 and Tampa Bay is just 4-4 in eight home starts. Tampa Bay has dropped five of his last six outings including all three at home and in three starts against New York this year, he has a 7.88 ERA. The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven road games against right-handed starters.

David Chan

Giants @ Nationals
PICK: Under 7

The Giants' Tim Lincecum (3-8, 5.60 ERA) is set to square off against the Nationals' Jordan Zimmermann (4-6, 2.77 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Lincecum bounced back after a tough stretch to dominate in his last start, scattering four hits over seven scoreless frames; he struck out eight and walked two in the 3-0 victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday. The beleaguered right-hander now has a big opportunity to build off that performance vs. the lighter hitting Nationals.

Zimmermann gave up eight hits over seven frames, allowing just one run in his team's 11-5 win at Colorado on Wednesday. Zimmermann has had an excellent season thus far, sporting a very respectable 2.77 ERA. Like Lincecum, Zimmermann has an opportunity to string together back to back victories facing this soft-hitting Giants team which ranks just 10th in the Senior Circuit in scoring.

And while past success guarantees nothing in the future, Zimmermann will be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that he was 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two matchups vs. San Francisco a year ago.

Lincecum showed me enough in his last start to make me believe he truly has turned a corner; Zimmermann has been as about as solid as it gets all year.

With these two competent starters going head to head on Tuesday night, you may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Jesse Schule

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers scheduled starter Max Sherzer, will sit this one out with a groin injury. Taking his place out of the bullpen will be Duane Below. The relief pitcher is making his first start of the season, and just the third of his career. His last outing was a tough one, giving up two runs on four hits in just over two innings in relief. He has been pretty effective overall, holding opponents scoreless in seven of his ten relief appearances. It is anybody's guess how this kid will do on the hill today, however it is a safe bet that he can't do much worse than his counterpart Nick Blackburn.

Blackburn (4-5, 7.74 ERA) is winless with an 8.45 ERA in nine career starts in Detroit, and the way he is pitching lately, he isn't likely going to improve on those numbers. In his last four starts, he has allowed four or more runs in each, only getting out of the 5th inning once. He has also given up multiple home runs in both his last two starts. An early exit for Blackburn is a solid bet in this game, as he hasn't gone more than six innings in any of his starts this year.

This one could be a barn burner, but I expect the Tigers to come out on top after the smoke clears.

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Boston Red Sox

Jon Lester and the Red Sox take on the Athletics in Game Two of this three-game series in Oakland Tuesday evening knowing Lester enters the game in solid KW form with 38 strikeouts and 5 walks in his last six starts. Lester is also 8-3 away in his career team starts during July. With Lester's road ERA (3.28) more than two runs a game better than his home ERA (5.60) this season, look for the A's to fall to 11-17 against southpaws this season here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston.

Freddy Wills

Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Johnny Cueto gets the ball in LA and he is coming off a great June where he posted a 1.74 ERA which included a 1.35 ERA over his last three. Cueto has been dominant on the road posting a 2.24 ERA and I think he will be plenty motivated after not being selected to the All Star game which in my opinion is a complete joke. Cueto has struggled number wise vs. the Dodgers as they have posted a 1.016 OPS, but Cueto does not have to face Matt Kemp or Mark Ellis who were a combined 9-17 with 2 HR. Cueto has good numbers vs. the Dodgers actually posting a 2.08 ERA in 4 career starts when you take out his lone poor start. Capuano on the other hand can not claim the same.

First of all the Reds have been consistent with the bats and are ranked 8th in OPS vs. LHP. Phillips, Votto, Bruce and Phillips all have OPS over 1.000 vs. Capuano as they are a combined 24-60 with 5 HR. Capuano has a 6.75 ERA in his last 4 vs. the Reds over the last three years. The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 road vs. a LH starter and 20-7 in Cueto's last 27 as a favorite while the Dodgers are now 3-11 in their last 14 at home as an underdog. All of this after they posted a .571 OPS in June which was good for dead last in the league. The reds were 8th in June and are scoring roughly 2 runs better per 9 over the last 10 games.

Notable Hot Starters:
A.J. Burnett (3-0, 1.19 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Max Scherzer (2-1, 0.85 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Lucas Harrell (1-2, 1.03 WHIP, 2.53 ERA)
Vance Worley (1-2, 1.05 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Jeff Francis (3-0, 0.94 WHIP, 1.69 ERA)
Felix Hernandez (3-0, 0.87 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Chris Capuano (2-1, 0.86 WHIP, 2.05 ERA)
Jordan Zimmermann (1-2, 1.40 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher Dan Haren who posts an 8.31 ERA over his last three starts. However, he has dominated the Indians in 231 AB the Indians hitters have just a .612 OPS.

Notable Cold Starters:
Anibal Sanchez (2-1, 1.62 WHIP, 6.48 ERA)
Nick Blackburn (2-1, 1.69 WHIP, 7.88 ERA)
Vin Mazzaro (1-2, 2.03 WHIP, 8.71 ERA)
Brett Cecil (2-1, 1.59 WHIP, 6.06 ERA)
Chris Volstad (0-3, 2.08 WHIP, 10.38 ERA)

Jim Feist

Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Houston Astros

Lucas Harrell of the Astros is throwing well, with a 2.53 ERA his last three starts fanning 18 in 21 innings. He faces a terrible Pittsburgh offense, one ranked 27th in runs scored, 30th in on-base percentage and a weak team batting average of .236. The Pirates have never faced Harrell before, while Pittsburgh starter A.J. Burnett is 2-5 with a 4.79 ERA against Houston. Play the Astros.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

The Dodgers are a truly awful team right now. Respect Chris Capuano a whole lot, but All-Star snub Johnny Cueto has a point to prove here and the Reds are clearly the better current entry. I'll go with Cincinnati.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kansas City +128 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays are in danger of falling below .500 and dropping back even further in the tough AL East. They’ve now lost two in a row, four of six and the injuries to their starting rotation is taking its toll. That puts a lot more pressure on guys like Brett Cecil, who didn’t even make the team out of spring. Cecil made nine starts in Double-A before a promotion to Triple-A. He had 40K/14 BB in 49.1 IP in the minors. In previous MLB stints, Cecil has displayed marginal command and below average xERAs in the 4.25-4.75 range. He has yet to show substantial skills growth and pitching for a troubled squad, he should be avoided when spotting a tag. The Royals have won five of eight. They’re currently seeing the ball real well with a .299 BA over their past 13 and took the opener last night 11-3. Vin Mazzaro returns to the rotation after a demotion to the bullpen. His surface stats are middling at best but he has an outstanding 55% groundball rate and a 2.16 xERA over his past two starts. We’re calling the pitching match-up pretty even. However, current form, momentum and confidence at the plate heavily favors the visitor and with the tag, it’s sensible to take a position. Play: Kansas City +128 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -117 over Texas

Roy Oswalt and his 2-0 record pitching for the Rangers looks like a pretty sweet combination on paper. It’s not. Oswalt should really be 0-2. In his pair of starts, covering 12.2 frames, Oswalt has allowed 22 hits for a BAA of .397 and a 1.97 WHIP. Oswalt displayed skills erosion in an injury-plagued 2011, which included two DL stints with back ailments. This isn’t Hollywood and at the age of 34 and with too much mileage on a near “dead” arm, Oswalt is not making a Rocky-like comeback. Numerous pitchers have tried with a very low percentage succeeding. Nothing in Oswalt’s two starts suggest he’s going to defy the odds. As a result of his misleading 2-0 start, we get the White Sox at home with Chris Sale going at a very playable price. Sale has become a legit ace, a fact that is confirmed in his LH/RH skill splits. He’s just as good against righties as he is against lefties. Sale has a 2.27 ERA, 94 K’s in 95 innings, outstanding control and a groundball bias profile. Texas is dangerous but they’re likely going to need to score a bunch here to get Oswalt off the hook. Sale has been too good to allow that to happen. Play: Chicago -117 (Risking 2 units to win 1.7).

San Francisco +120 over WASHINGTON

Don’t look now but the Giants have leapfrogged over the Dodgers and are now in sole possession of first place. They’re 7-3 over their past 10, 45-35 overall and that’s with Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner struggling in the first half. Lincecum is coming off his best outing of the year vs. LA in which he struck out eight batters over seven scoreless innings. His skills in June were much improved over April and May, as was his control. His 7.59 road ERA is merely an anomaly as Linceum has the pedigree and skills to be one of the best in the game. Jordan Zimmermann has been very consistent this season, going six innings or more in each outing this year. All but two of his 15 starts have been quality. No doubt, he gives the Nats a chance to win every time he takes the mound. However, he has just four wins in those 15 starts. The Nats rarely give him any run support and that plays on a pitcher’s mind, as he steps to the hill figuring he needs to be near perfect for a chance at a “W”. Still, this one is more about backing the red-hot Giants and their undervalued ace. Play: San Francisco +120 (Risking 2 units).

Ed Meyer

Milwaukee Brewers -110

The Marlins had an excellent change to pull the big upset vs Greinke last night but they blew two separate multiple-run leads to lose 6-5. Miami is not a team that can regroup after these types of defeats. The Fish are 7-29 since last June when they are off a loss in which they held the lead, as long as they were not a 140-plus favorite in that loss.

Miami is 1-9 their last ten in this spot and all ten games are from THIS season. The last time Sanchez started in this spot, he gave up six runs in three-and-a-third innings in a 12-5 defeat as a home favorite.

The Brewers are actually very reliable in this spot. Milwaukee is 30-12 as a favorite vs a team that has a better record, 60-26 as a favorite after a one-run win and 15-5 as a day home favorite after scoring six-plus runs at night.

Sanchez is off a quality start win vs the Cardinals at home. This is keeping the line reasonable here, but the fac t is that the Marlins are 3-17 with Sanchez when he is off a quality start in which his WHIP was less than 1.50.

All three wins were by one-run. In his last three starts in this spot, the Marlins lost by scores of 14-7, 11-0 and 12-5. In these three starts, Sanchez has allowed an average of 6.00 runs in an average of 5.11 innings.

The Fish have demonstrated no guts in this situation and the Brewers love to beat up on a team that is down. Lay this small price.

FORECAST: MILWAUKEE 7 Miami 3

MLB Predictions

New York Mets -119

Philadelphia enters tonight's game with a 36-45 record, and 19-21 road record which has them in last place in the NL East division. The Mets are 2nd in the division with a 43-37 record and 23-17 home record. These two teams have met 9 times this year with the Mets taking 6 of the 9 meetings. Philadelphia has lost 5 straight games, while the Mets have won 4 of their last 5. We do see two good pitchers on the mound with Vance Worley and Jon Niese. Worley is 4-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .247 opponents batting average. Niese is 6-3 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .246 opponents batting average. In June he went 3-1 with a 1.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .271 opponents batting average over 4 starts. He is 1-0 against the Phillies this season over 3 starts, where Philadelphia batters are hitting just .183 against him. None of those starts came in the month of June, where he has been pitching the best he has been all season. Philadelphia is just 8-20 over their last 28 games, and 0-6 in their last 6 road games. Despite Worley pitching well they are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts, and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts. The Mets are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs a team with a losing road record, and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Niese enjoyed 5 days of rest, and they are 12-5 in his last 17 starts with 5 days rest. They are also 6-1 in his last 7 vs a team with a losing record. New York is 9-4 in these two teams last 13 meetings overall, and I like them to win tonight.

Royals / Blue Jays Over 10.5

These two teams met last night with the Royals winning 11-3 as pretty big underdogs. The OVER last night was the 6th straight OVER for the Jays, with totals of 14, 16, 13, 12, 16, and 14. The Bats are going for Toronto, but their pitching is not. Toronto turns to Brett Cecil for his 4th start since being called up. In his last start he went just 5.1 innings giving up 10 hits and 8 earned runs, bumping his overall ERA up to 6.06 on the season. Vin Mazzaro comes out of the bullpen for a start for the Royals. He is 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .305 opponents batting average as a starter this season. Take note that the OVER is 12-3-1 in the Blue Jays last 16 games overall, and 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The OVER is 5-2 in Cecil's last 7 starts with a total set at 9-10.5. Take the OVER here tonight with these two pitchers on the mound and both teams swinging well.

Rockies / Cardinals Under 9.5

If you take away Jeff Francis' first start of the season where he allowed 8 earned runs in 3.1 innings of work he would have a very respectable ERA. In fact the Rockies have won his last 4 starts, and over his last 3 starts his ERA is just 1.69. Joe Kelly will be making his 5th start for the Cardinals. He is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .318 opponents batting average. At home (2 starts) he is 0-0 with a 2.89 ERA. Note that the UNDER is 10-4-1 in Francis' last 15 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The UNDER is also 4-1 in their last 5 meetings overall, and 8-1 in their last 9 meetings in St Louis. Although Colorado has been playing to the over quite a bit lately they haven't really done too much with their bats besides a few big offensive games over their recent rough patch. With the two pitchers on the mound tonight pitching well as of late I think we have value going with the UNDER on this high total.

Vegas Experts

Baltimore at Seattle
Play: Seattle

The Seattle Mariners host the Baltimore Orioles in a night game at Safeco Field. Starting pitcher for the Mariners Felix Hernandez has struck out 23 in his last two consecutive starts. Hernandez is 5-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 13 career starts against Baltimore. The Orioles starter Chen has lost his last two starts and has an ERA of 3.73. The Orioles have lost their last five of six and nine of twelve games. Baltimore has scored three runs or fewer in all but two games during a 3-10 game stretch. Seattle should take advantage of their hot pitching and bring home a win tonight.

Tony Stoffo

San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals

Tim Lincecum has proved in the past that he definitely doesn't like to pitch in the hot weather that he sometimes has to face in his East Coast starts. Well this will be the case here this evening in Washington as the forecast calls for temps in the upper 80's with an incredibly high 70% dew point. This will really take it's toll on Lincecum and is the main reason for this fade against the Giants here today. Plus it doesn’t hurt the case for a play on the Nationals with Jordan Zimmerman getting the start here. Zimmerman in his last 3 starts against the Rockies, Orioles, and Yankees has been sharp allowing just 5 earned runs in 20 innings pitched resulting in a 2.25 ERA. Add this all up and Washington becomes the solid release here this evening.