Ben Burns
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
I've been riding Felix Hernandez of late and I expect him to pitch well again tonight. Indeed, Hernandez has been practically unhittable of late. He's off a shutout victory over the Red Sox last time out, striking out a whopping 13 along the way, allowing only five hits.
I backed the M's (as a free play) in that 1-0 win over Boston. I also won with the M's (as guaranteed plays) in each of Hernandez's previous two starts, a 2-1 win vs. the Giants and a 5-1 win vs. the Padres.
During that 3-game stretch, the Mariners' ace had 30 K's vs. just three walks, compiling a remarkable 0.78 ERA.
Off the Boston victory, King Felix had this to say: "This year, this is the best game that I've thrown. I was throwing a lot of strikes and all the pitches were working."
Not that he typically needs much help - but it should be noted that Hernandez is backed by a Seattle bullpen which has a spectacular 1.03 ERA the last 10 games.
Chen has done a solid job this season. However, he got roughed up last time out and he's not in the class of Hernandez.
After allowing six runs in his last start, Chen commented: "...Today, I just don't feel it."
The O's are 3-10 their last 13 and they've scored three runs or less in 11 of those games. I expect them to have trouble scoring once again, as Hernandez keeps on rolling for another day. Consider Seattle.
Lenny Del Genio
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
We won with the Pirates last night and are offering them up as a complimentary selection for Tuesday as they should again have little difficulty hosting the sorry Houston Astros. Houston's offense has been non-existent during a five-game losing streak as they've scored just seven times, including four in the last four games w/ two shutouts. Tonight, they must deal with AJ Burnett, who has enjoyed a shocking resurgence in the National League, going 9-2 overall w/ a 3.31 ERA. But at PNC Park is where he's really been great as he's yet to lose in his new home park (7-0 TSR) thanks to a 1.11 ERA! Houston has the worst road record in MLB right now at 9-29 and is a horrific 56-116 (-$4450!) vs. righties the last two seasons. Put them in the +175 to +250 price range and the Astros are 9-43 since the start of last year. The Bucs are 24-13 overall at home this year and should continue their recent offensive surge (8.0 runs L7 games) against Lucas Harrell, who has a 6.36 ERA in nine road starts.
Bryan Power
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
This seems to a steal getting Mariners' ace Felix Hernandez at this price considering the way he's pitched of late. Over his last three starts, King Felix is 3-0 with an amazing KW ratio of 30-3 and an ERA of 0.78 (WHIP 0.870). He is coming off a complete game shut out of what was at the time a very hot Red Sox offense last Thursday, striking out 13 Boston batters. Though he's only .500 at home this season, Hernandez has pitched well (2.14 ERA). I see him having little to no difficulty handling a Baltimore team that's dropped six of seven, scoring three runs or less five times in the procees.
Baltimore has also dropped six of seven here at Safeco Field. They will send out Wei-Yin Chen to counter Hernandez Tuesday evening. Though he's been effective most of the seasn, Chen has shown signs of slowing down and allowed six runs in his last start, a 7-2 home loss to Cleveland. The Baltimore bullpen has struggled during the team's losing streak, producing an ERA of 5.52 over the last week. Meanwhile, Seattle relievers have an ERA of just 1.03 the last 10 games. This one goes to the home team.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -125
The Red Sox get the call as our free play with Lester on the hill given Oakland's struggles against southpaw starters. The Red Sox are 4-1 in Lester's last 5 road starts, and he figures to have plenty of success against an Oakland club that is batting just .218 against lefty starters this season. The Athletics are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter. In addition, Oakland's Colon has been awful at home where he is 1-5 with an ERA of 6.98. Bet Boston.
Jeff Alexander
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +120
I'm fading Chicago's Chris Volstad here. Volstad, who has a 7.46 ERA on the season, is 0-10 on the money line in his last 10 starts. 9 of those losses have come by 2 runs or more, and his teams have lost by an average of 3.3 runs during this stretch. Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens has pitched well in his last 2 starts, and he is 3-0 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus the Cubs. The last 2 wins versus Chicago have come by 2 runs or more. We'll take Atlanta on the run line.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Yankees -110
The Yankees have lost eight in a row in Tampa, but I believe the skid comes to an end tonight with Ivan Nova on the mound. The Yankees are 25-7 in Nova's last 32 starts. The right-hander is 6-0 (8-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.44 on the road this season. The Yankees are 19-4 in his last 23 road starts and 12-0 in his last 12 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Nova has also had a ton of success against Tampa Bay. He's 4-0 (6-0 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.05 in six career starts against the Rays. The Rays are just 1-5 in James Shields' last 6 starts. He's lost his last two starts against the Yankees and is just 5-13 (7-16 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.55 in 23 lifetime starts against them. We'll take the Yanks behind Nova.
Dave Essler
SD Padres +135
In short, Bauer is simply not going to pitch deep being on a short leash, and the D-backs bullpen has been used quite a bit lately. With Quentin in the lineup this is a different Padres team, and they'll build off of last night's win. Cashner had a no hitter deep in the Houston game, and granted it was the Astrso who aren't hitting, but it was also in a small park that could easily have been more intimidating than it was. With that total coming down, that tells me that they're not expecting the D-backs to go off on the kid, so at this great price the Padres are in play.
GoodFella
Washington -127
We're backing Jordan Zimmerman over the still over-valued "Timmy". The Nationals are simply hitting on all cylinders right now, both up and down the order as well as front to back end pitching. Because Zimmerman is on a team with Strasburg and Gio he's often overlooked, but this is someone that's clearly a number one starter for many teams. The Giants are barely a .500 team on the road, and this is simply a tough spot for the, being on the East Coast right before the All-Star break & for me the "value" screams on the home team in this spot & my money is on the NATIONALS tonight.
Tony George
NY Mets -120
Playing the Phillies at home and I like to fade the Phillies against southpaws when the right scenario pops up. They face John Niese tonight who is 6-3 on the year and 3-1 at home with a 3.74 ERA. I like the set up here for the Mets who are 4-1 their last 5 playing the fading Phillies who have dropped 5 straight. Two decent ptichers tonight but the Phillies do not hit lefties all that well and I think Niese gets the run support here for the win at home.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta/ Chicago Over 8.5: Sweltering heat in the south, with a pitcher that has struggled mightily this year and one that throws a lot a fly balls. Oh yeah. I have to go with the Over in this one. Chris Volstad was sent down to the minors, due to poor showings up here, but the Cubs need him due to injuries. That helps us here. Chris has a 7.46 ERA in 8 starts this year, including a 6.50 ERA in 3 road starts. Dating back to last year, Chris has a 5.40 ERA in his last 37 starts and he didn't do much in the Minors this year, with a 4.44 ERA in 8 starts at AAA Iowa. The Braves should be able to get their offense back on track vs Chris tonight. Last night Atlanta scored just 1 run off of Cubs pitching, but they do score 4.5 rpg at home, and they had scored 5.2 rpg in their previous 6 home games before last night. There is no reason the Atlanta offense shouldn't have a good showing tonight. Jair jurrjens was also sent to the minors this year, but has since come back to have two pretty good outings. Still he has a 6.75 ERA at home on the year and he does toss a bunch of flyballs and in this heat that should help the ball carry very well. The Cubs have hit lefties at a .195 clip and have scored just 2.04 rp/9 off of them on the road this year, but it's a different story vs righties as they have hit .261 and have scored 4.2 rp/9 off of them away from home. Getting at least 4 runs from the Cubs in this one would be golden, because I expect at least 5 from Atlanta off of Volstad an company. Both pitchers may not last the whole game in this heat, but fear not as the Braves have a pen ERA of 4.54 at home, while the Cubs have a pen ERA of 4.86 on the road. I expect no less than 10 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Texas/ Chicago Under 9: The White sox were killing the ball on the recent road trip and then in their final two games of that trip they scored just 2 total runs. Now they are back home where they have averaged 4.98 rpg on the year, but recently they have struggled at home, putting up just 3.3 rpg in their last 6 games here. This offense will be facing Roy Oswalt, who will be making his first road start of the year. Roy had 1 good and 1 bad home start so far, but in his career he has been a good pitcher on the road, posting a 3.54 ERA. The Ranger offense struggles vs lefties at home, but on the road they have hit .325 and scored 6.21 rp/9 off of them. it will not be easy for them to get those kind of numbers off of tonight's pitcher. Chris sale has been awesome this year, especially at home, where he sports a nifty 1.69 ERA and an 0.83 WHIP in 7 starts. Chris comes in having allowed just 2 total ER's in his last 4 home starts (32 innings) and 0 ER's in his last 23 innings pitched at home. Let's also note that Chris' home starts have averaged just 6.4 rpg These teams met last in the first week of the season and no more than 7 runs were scored in any game and I don't expect more than 7 in this one as well.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Washington/ San Francisco Over 7.5: Haven't had one of these in a while, but now that I'm settling in my new place I will look to have them more often. Tim Lincecum is off two solid starts, but let's not get that excited as one was in a big park in Oakland and the other was vs the offensively pathetic LA Dodgers. Tim still has a 5.60 ERA overall, with an average of 8.9 rpg being scored in his starts, while on the road his ERA is 7.59, with an average of 11.6 rpg being scored in those starts. Tim also has struggled with the Nats of late, posting a 7.16 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. The Nats have played teir last 10 games on the road and that averaged 5.8 rpg in that stretch and the hope here is that offensive confidence will spill over at home where they have averaged just 3.7 rpg. The Giants don't score well at home at all, but on the road they have averaged 4.7 rpg and have hit a solid .260. Jordan Zimmerman has a 2.77 ERA overall, but it's slightly higher at home 3.25, so he will give up some runs at home. His home starts have averaged 7.9 rpg. I expect both offenses to come up with enough runs to push this one Over. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2007 the OVER is 18-5 when the Nats are in game 1 of a series and the start time is 6:35 or earlier.
San Diego/ Arizona Under 9: Last night these teams put up 8 runs and than now means that no more than 8 runs have been scored in the 7 meetings between the teams this year. Granted 6 of those games were in San Diego, but I still don't expect more than 7 or 8 in this one. Trevor Bauer is off his first career start and he allowed just 2 ER's in 4 innings in that start. In the Minors this year he has a 2.23 ERA in 16 starts and allowed just 75 hit in 93 innings in those starts. This kid can pitch and he gets to take on anemic San Diego offense in this one. The Padres score just 3.8 rpg on the road and they have averaged just 2.9 rpg off of Arizona pitching this year, plus having never seen Bauer, that gives the Pitcher an edge. Andrew Cashner has just 2 starts on the year and both were on the road. His 4.50 ERA on the road is a bit deceiving as he has allowed just 3 ER's in the two starts. He allowed 2 ER's at Houston and 1 ER at Milwaukee, but he was lifted in the 3rd inning after suffering an injury in that Milwaukee game. Overall he has 3 career starts and has allowed just 4 ER's total in those starts, while in AA ball he had a 1.88 ERA in 3 starts this year. This kid can also pitch and his lone start last year was vs Arizona, in which he allowed just 1 ER in 5.1 innings of work. The D-Backs score 5+ rpg at home, but they do come in slumping some, having put up just 6 runs in their last 3 games. These two starters tonight should shut down these offenses as this game barley his 6 runs.
Jack Jones
New York Yankees -113
After blowing a late lead to the Tampa Bay Rays last night, I have the New York Yankees bouncing back with a victory Tuesday in Game 2 of this series. Tampa has been ice cold at the plate, scoring four runs or fewer in each of their last eight games, going 2-6 in the process.
Ivan Nova has put together another impressive 2012 campaign. The right-hander is 9-2 with a 4.03 ERA in 15 starts this season, 6-0 with a 3.44 ERA in eight road starts, and 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last three outings.
James Shields has come back down to reality in 2012 after a fine campaign last season. Shields is 7-5 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 16 starts this season, and 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in eight home starts. He's been fortunate to have a respectable ERA because he puts so many guys on base.
Nova has never lost to the Rays, going 4-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in six career starts against them. The Yankees are a perfect 6-0 in those contests. Shields is 5-13 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 23 career starts against the Yankees.
The Yankees are 12-0 in Nova's last 12 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 25-7 in Nova's last 32 starts overall, including a perfect 8-0 in his eight road starts in 2012. The Rays are 1-5 in Shields' last 6 starts. Bet the Yankees Tuesday.
Wunderdog
Texas at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox -135
The Texas Rangers saw their five-game winning streak come to a close last night in a 3-1 defeat at the hands of the Oakland A's. The White Sox had a welcomed day off Monday after a successful seven-game road trip that saw them go 4-3. Chris Sale is on his way to stardom, and gave glimpses of that over the last two years in limited work, allowing just 67 hits in 94.1 innings of work. Sale is currently 9-2 with a 2.27 ERA, and has allowed just 68 hits in 95.1 innings of work. That means in his short major league career he has allowed just 135 hits in 190 innings - by far the best mark in baseball. Roy Oswalt is still shaking off the rust and has allowed 22 hits in 12.2 innings of work so the White Sox have a big advantage in this one. The Rangers are in a bad spot here as they are a woeful 2-12 on the road as a dog of +110 to +150 in their last 14. Play on the White Sox.
Ross King
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Los Angeles Angels
Angels are currently 24-17 versus teams with a winning record while Cleveland is 92-122 the last 3 seasons.Haren who has struggled this season has beaten Cleveland this year and allowed one run strikingout 7 in 8 innings pitched and overall in Cleveland is 3-0 e.r.a 1.80.Take the Angels who are playing really well and expect Haren to continue to dominate Cleveland just like he has in the past as your freeplay winner.