Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 30

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Prediction: New York Mets

When the Mets send Zack Wheeler to the mound against Nathan Eovaldi and the Marlins in Miami Tuesday evening, New York will do so knowing Wheeler's road ERA (2.31) is nearly 3 runs per game lower than his home ERA (5.07) this season. On the flip side, Eovaldi stands 0-2 in his home career team starts against the Mets, while the host team in his starts versus New York is 0-4 in his MLB career. Look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Matt Fargo

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Play: New York Mets

The Mets snapped their three-game losing streak with a win last night in this series opener as underdogs and we are again catching them as underdogs against the team with the worst record in the National League. New York moved to .500 on the road and it is the only team in baseball that has a losing record at home and a .500 record on the road. Despite being 2-3 on this current roadtrip, the Mets are 15-9 over their last 24 road games and they send Zack Wheeler to the hill tonight. After tossing six shutout innings in his Major League debut, he had a couple rough outings but has rebounded nicely as over his last four starts, he has a 2.78 ERA with the Mets winning all four of those starts. New York is 3-1 in his four road outings this season with Wheelers putting up a solid 2.31 ERA in those games. Miami has put together a solid run, going 5-3 over its last eight games following a four-game skid. It is rare to see the Marlins as favorites when Jose Fernandez is not on the hill as this is just the fourth such occasion with them going 1-2 the previous three times. The Marlins are 18-37 in their last 55 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game and they turn to Nathan Eovaldi tonight. He has been very solid since entering the rotation as six of his seven starts have been quality outings including both at home so getting to him has been tough. The problem is that he has been solid during the day, posting a 1.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in four starts but it has been a different story under the lights as he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in three starts. I expect that trend to continue tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -128

There is no denying that Stephen Strasburg is one of the best pitchers in the Nationals rotation. However, his numbers this season do not even come close to matching those of Anibal Sanchez for Detroit. Sanchez has a 2.19 ERA in his 7 starts at home with a 5-2 record. Strasburg on the other hand has a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts.

The Tigers will also have a huge advantage at the plate in this game. Over their past seven games they are scoring 6.7 runs per game with a .281 batting average. At home this year their batting average improves to .301. The Nationals have a .219 batting average on the road and they are scoring a mere 3.4 runs per game. The Tigers are an easy call as such small favorites today.

Steve Janus

Diamondbacks/Rays Over 8

With Ian Kennedy and Roberto Hernandez scheduled to take the mound in tonight's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Rays, I expect to see the total score reach double-digits.

Kennedy has been a complete disappointment in 2013, he's just 3-7 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.403 WHIP over 20 starts and it's been just as bad on the road, where he's 1-4 with a 5.25 ERA. Considering the Rays are average 4.6 runs/game at home and are hitting a solid .266 as a team over their last 7 games, I like their chances of scoring at least 4 runs with the potential to cover the total on their own. Not to mention, Kennedy is 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rays. Each of his last three starts have come at Tampa Bay and he's allowed 12 runs on 15 hits in just 16 and 1/3 innings of work over the three.

As for Hernandez, he's arguably the worst starter in an otherwise stacked rotation in Tampa Bay. He's 5-11 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.323 WHIP over 19 starts and hasn't been a whole lot better at home, where he has a 4.25 ERA and 1.321 WHIP. He goes up against a hot Arizona offense that is average 4.9 runs/game and hitting 2.63 over their last 7 games.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the Diamondbacks last 7 road games vs a team with home winning percentage greater than 60% and 27-13-2 in their last 42 road games with a total between 7 and 8.5. It's also 4-0 in the Rays last 4 interleague home games vs a RHP and 12-4-1 in their last 17 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.

Jeffrey Brandes

Royals / Twins Over 8

Pitchers:
KANSAS CITY ROYALS: ERVIN SANTANA (R) ERA: 3.06 W/L: 6-6
MINNESOTA TWINS: MICHAEL PELFREY (R) ERA: 5.15 W/L: 4-8

ERVIN SANTANA is 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA in his last 3 starts. He went eight innings on Wednesday, holding the O's to three runs (one earned) on seven hits. In his last start, MICHAEL PELFREY gave up just one run on five hits and a walk with five strikeouts. He's lowered his ERA in 8 straight starts. He's 0-2 with a 3.06 ERA in his last 3 starts.

Key Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Minnesota's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home

Art Aronson

Royals / Twins Over 8

Ervin Santana (6-6, 3.06 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Santana was decent in going eight frames vs. the Orioles on Wednesday, giving up three runs off seven hits with two walks in the no-decision. Santana has been solid all year, but if he's had one weakness it's been his play on the road, coming into Minnesota with a 2-3, 3.53 ERA record away from friendly confines thus far. He'll be throwing opposite Mike Pelfrey (4-8, 5.15 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits with a walk over six frames in a loss to the Angels on Wednesday. Pelfrey has looked brilliant at times this season and pretty horrible in others; take note that he's just 2-3 with an extremely pedestrian 5.33 ERA home record this season. Three of these teams last five in the series have flown above the number and with these two streaky starters facing off in the opener of this three-game set, all signs do indeed once again point to a higher-scoring affair. Consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

Dave Price

Cleveland Indians -146

The White Sox have lost five straight to Cleveland, and I expect their struggles with the Tribe to continue with Peavy on the mound. The Sox have dropped 14 of his last 19 road starts and are 0-8 in his last 8 starts as a road underdog. He has a 6.10 road ERA on the season. The Indians have won five in a row and are 32-13 in their last 45 home games. Kazmir has a 0.89 ERA over his last three starts and has been rock solid at home all season where he's 5-0 with a 3.92 ERA in eight starts. The Indians are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite. Take the Tribe.

Alex Smart

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland A's
Play: Oakland A's

These are two teams performing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. Oakland has won four straight, while Toronto has lost 11 of its last 15 overall. The A's boast the AL's best home record (34-16) and pounded the Jays yesterday by a 9-4 count. Athletics are 44-13 in their last 57 games as a home favorite and Im betting on them cashing again here today.

Sports Experts 17

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
Pick: Washington Nationals

We can´t say that Stephen Strasburg is losing his control with his 5-8 record compared to the one he had on 2012 15-6¡¡, most of Strasburg´s loses came from games decided by 3 or less runs against good teams: @ CIN L 3-6, ATL L 1-3, STL L 2-4, @ CLE L 0-2 and his last one PIT L 2-4, what this numbers are saying, that hitters from the Nationals didn´t help Strasburg in all this loses, but tonight things will change with a great opportunity to have Stephen as underdog (not to many times we will see this again in 2013 season) because Washington came back to the winning road taken 3 out of 4 to the NY Mets. People might say that guys from Sports Experts 17 are crazy on saying this, but we have a great argument to make clear this: it doesn´t matters who they won to or if the NY Mets is a good team or not, Nationals knows again what´s the feeling of winning after drop 6 in a row. For the Tigers is coming out tonight Anibal Sanchez that it is not the pitcher all people think, his numbers are bad: 2011 (8-9), 2012 Miami(5-7) Detroit (4-6) and 2013 (8-7), what is the support for such high lines having Anibal this season? the answer is THE TEAM HE PITCHES FOR, but tonight he is facing Stephen Strasburg that will be with less pressure after his team 3 winning streak and well motivated to bring his winning record back.

Bruce Marshall

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres

The Reds have sunk into a mini-funk with four straight losses, and team psyche was bruised further when the Padres rallied for two runs in the ninth off of Cincy closer Aroldis Chapman to score a 2-1 win on Monday night. Although Reds starter Mat Latos pitched well in his last start on Thursday vs. the Dodgers, the Cincy offense has gone on the blink during the current losing streak, scoring just three times over a four-game span, and San Diego's ex-Rred starter Edinson Volquez has delivered the occasional quality effort this season. Serviceable in his last two starts, Volquez has recorded a pair of wins on the trot. And with Latos posting a 5.16 ERA over his last four outings (even with that win over the Dodgers last Thursday). can't count on a Cincy side that isn't scoring any runs at the moment.

Jim Feist

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

San Fran is a long way from home and lefty Barry Zito (4-7, 4.92 ERA) is back to his bad ways of walking too many batters, allowing 9 walks his last 12+ innings. That has resulted in an 8.59 ERA - and no wins. Zito has allowed three runs or more in four of his last five starts. The 35-year-old veteran owns a whopping 9.39 ERA in nine starts on the road. The Giants are 7-19 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Philadelphia lefty John Lannan is on a roll with a 2.25 ERA his last three starts and has a 1.74 ERA in 20 career innings against the Giants.

Don Best Consensus

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are 7-1 in their last 8 overall and 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 1-5 in Strasburg's last 6 starts and 1-5 in their last 6 interleague road games.

Will Rogers

San Francisco vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

Nobody will deny that the Phillies have been a major letdown this year, but they get a favorable draw Tuesday night in Barry Zito as they open up a three-game set with the equally disappointing San Francisco Giants. These teams have combined to drop 15 of their last 16 games. But I say the edge goes to the home team.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Zito - The eccentric lefty has been a disaster on the road with an 0-6 record (1-8 TSR) in nine starts. His ERA is 9.39 and his WHIP is a horrible 2.373. He has failed to make it past the fifth inning in either of his last two starts, both of which were on the road. Overall, he's gone 0-4 his last nine starts, posting a 9.89 ERA and hasn't delivered a quality outing since May 30th.

2. Trends - Despite being on their longest losing skid of the millenium and having been outscored 52-14, the Phils can rest easy that they are a money-making 17-6 after allowing nine or more runs in back to back games. Meanwhile, the Giants are just 9-25 as a money line underdog and 3-11 when taking the field with a day off this season. They are just 7-16 in July and are 2-13 off a one-run loss this year. They lost their last game 2-1 to the Cubs on Sunday.

3. X-Factor - Lefty John Lannan could be the savior that Philadelphia is looking for as his home ERA is a very respectable 2.73 this season. San Francisco is just 14-20 vs. southpaws this year.

Bryan Power

Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

The Kansas City Royals are on a real roll right now, winning a season-high six straight, but I feel the hometown Twins are the better value Tuesday night. Both teams were off Monday and while that usually works to a team's advantage this time of year, days off have not been kind to the Royals in 2013....

Kansas City is just 1-8 when playing w/ a day off this season. They are certainly sky high after sweeping the White Sox on the road and taking three straight against a good Orioles team before that. A win here would put them over .500, something that hasn't happened this late in a season in a decade. But I feel it's a letdown spot and the day off could kill their momentum.

The Twins are expected to get catcher Joe Mauer back from paternity leave. That's key as Mauer's hitting .324 for the year and the Twins have somewhat struggled to hit in his absence, despite going 4-3 during that stretch. Overall, Minnesota has been pretty hot too; winning 8 of their last 12. Starter Mike Pelfrey has looked good this month, posting a 2.28 ERA. Look for the Twins to surprise here.