Jesse Schule
White Sox vs. Indians
Pick: Indians
Jake Peavy is most likely on the way out of town, but for the moment he's scheduled to start Tuesday's game in Cleveland. The Indians are in hot pursuit of the Tigers for the lead in the American League Central, sitting just 2.5 games back.
Peavy (8-4, 4.28 ERA) allowed four runs on four hits (three home runs) in a 7-4 win over the Tigers his last time out. Prior to that he allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings in a 10-6 win over the Braves. He was fortunate his team was able to put some runs on the board in those two games, both home victories. He hasn't had the same luck on the road, and he's allowed a dozen runs in just 6 1/3 innings in losses to the Mariners and Cubs in his last two road outings.
The Indians hand the ball to Scott Kazmir, who is 3-0 over his last eight appearances. Kazmir (6-4, 3.96 ERA) tossed eight strong innings allowing a single run (unearned) on just one hit in a 10-1 win over the Mariners his last time out. He boasts a very impressive record of 5-0 with a 3.92 ERA in eight starts at Progressive Field this year.
Despite the fact that Peavy is considered a top major league pitcher, the numbers suggest the Indians still have an advantage with Kazmir on the mound at home. There is still a good chance Peavy is traded prior to game time, and a lesser starter or a relief pitcher comes out of the bullpen to make a spot start.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Tigers -135
Strasburg isn't getting help from an offense that is batting only .219 on the road. The Nats have dropped five of his last six starts overall and seven of his last 10 on the road. Strasburg hasn't pitched since the 24th, which isn't a good sign considering the Nats are 0-6 this season when he works on 5 or 6 days' rest. Washington has lost these by an average score of 5.0 to 1.8. Sanchez has been reliable for the Tigers all season, especially at home where he has a 2.19 ERA. He has a terrific track record against the Nats at 8-1 with a 2.02 ERA in 20 starts. Bet the Tigers.
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. Lions -6½ over TORONTO
The favorites continue to take the money this season. They went 4-0 last week and they’re off to a 3-0 start this week. Overall, the chalk is 15-4 this season and they are 5-0 on the road. What that suggests is that there is little parity in this league right now and the Argonauts without Ricky Ray have little hope of changing that. With Ray, the Argos are just 2-2 with a win over Winnipeg and a fluke win in the season opener against Hamilton. Combined, the Tiger-Cats and Bombers are 2-8. With starting quarterback Ricky Ray sidelined by injury, the Argonauts are placing their offense in the hands of a second-year backup who was never offered a scholarship by a school outside his home state of Ohio. Zach Collaros showed flickers of promise at the University of Cincinnati, but not enough to spark serious interest from the NFL. The Argos saw something in him, signed him, and left him to learn the game from deep on the depth chart last season. No question, Collaros will be jazzed up and he’s definitely more mobile than Ray. However, the Argos are not deep in talented receivers and Toronto will also be playing without running back Chad Kackert, the reigning Grey Cup MVP. In Week 2, the Lions held Toronto’s healthy roster to 16 points. The Argos will be hard-pressed to match that mark here.
The Lions have won three straight, they boast one of the stingiest defenses in the league and although they are 3-1, they have not come close to playing their best football yet. B.C. has a strong running game and Travis Lulay is close to 1000 yards passing already. Defensively, B.C. is first in the league in yards allowed at 288.0 per game and they remain the only CFL team that is allowing fewer than 300 yards per game. The disparity between these two defenses is astounding, with the Argos allowing a massive 418 yards per game. The Lions always play well against Toronto with six straight wins and 16 wins in the past 17 games. This one might be the worst beating of them all. The chalk rolls on.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets +111 over MIAMI
The lone chip of the 2011 Carlos Beltran trade to the Giants, Zack Wheeler was brought up out of necessity last month. While a bit wild, he generated optimism with 6 innings of shutout ball in his debut. It's been up and down for the 23-year-old since then. Mirroring concerns about his game at Triple-A, Wheeler has been a little erratic with his control and prone to surrendering HR’s but the Marlins are not a home-run hitting team (last in the majors with just 62) and this is not a home-run hitting park. Wheeler displayed a strong strikeout rate while keeping the ball down at the minor league level and he’s getting progressively tougher after each start. More importantly, the Mets win when he starts. New York has won Wheeler’s last four starts and overall, they’re 5-2 in his starts. Wheeler has an ace-level ceiling and he and the Mets are certainly worth a wager taking back a price.
Nathan Eovaldi is attempting to re-live 2012’s September magic. Eovaldi appeared on several breakout lists for 2013, largely on his September performance in 2012. However, a spring training shoulder injury shut him down and since his recall in June, the early results have been mixed. In just seven starts, Eovaldi’s results have been better than his skills. His 3.54 ERA looks pretty on the surface, but a 24% hit rate is keeping it out of the 4.50 range, where it belongs. Eovaldi's strikeout rate is still below what one would expect for someone pumping a 96.9 mph four-seamer (as he’s done in 2013) and his control has gone a bit worse, leaving his command at a barely acceptable level. Overall, though, it’s still a raw package. It’s difficult to teach that velocity and he’s still green at 23 years old. But without the swings and misses, the fastball is pretty much an empty skill. Look for your 2013 second half, poor-team sleeper elsewhere.
Washington +126 over DETROIT
Anibal Sanchez made a five-inning, solid return to the rotation on July 6. Two of his three games since then have also been of the pure-quality variety. Sanchez has posted the best strikeout rate of his career season-to-date with 119 K’s (33 walks) in 104 innings. That said, Sanchez does have one red-flag in his profile this year and it’s a significant one. His line-drive rate is 26% overall and 29% over his past five starts. That’s a high percentage that could result in some not so pretty stat lines. However, this has nothing to do with fading Sanchez and everything to do with taking back a tag on Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals.
Washington has nothing but talent on its roster but outside of the Blue Jays they have been this year’s biggest disappointment. However, they’ve won three in a row and they’re in second place now with a long way to go. Don’t be surprised to see a serious push from the Nats in the final two months. Then there’s Stephen Strasburg with just five wins in 20 starts. How can that be? Strasburg has allowed just 94 hits in 123.1 innings for a BAA of just .211 to go along with an elite 1.07 WHIP. He also has 127 K’s in his 123 frames, a 51% groundball rate and an elite level line-drive rate of just 17%. Over his last two starts, Strasburg has 18 K’s and 1 walk in 15 frames and the Nats are 0-2 in those games and 1-5 in his last six games. Strasburg is firmly among the game's best with a 2.85 ERA and a sick xERA over his last four starts of 1.55. He won’t win a Cy Young award this year but you would be hard pressed to find a single pitcher in baseball with better under the surface stats than Strasburg and few with better surface stats minus the W/L record. Anytime we’re offered a price on an elite profile like the one here, we’re quick to accept it and we absolutely make no exception here. If justice prevails, Strasburg may not lose another game for a while.
San Fran/PHILADELPHIA Over 9
It’s the same old story regarding John Lannan. He’s always waiting in the wings and he always makes his way into the rotation at some point due to inevitable injuries to other starters. This year is no different, as Lannan has started just 10 games and comes in with a 4.13 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The ERA is somewhat respectable but the WHIP is not. His xERA of 5.36 over his last five starts reminds us that this is still John Lannan, a pitcher that has never had prolonged success, has a low strikeout rate of 31 K’s in 57 frames and sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP in 58 starts over the past two years. Current Giants have 28 hits in 74 career AB’s against Lannan for a BA of .374 and that’s because he’s never been able to get righties out consistently. The Giants may go off for a crooked number here and if they do, this one goes over early. If they don’t, that’s still ok because Lannan’s mound opponent is Barry Zito and he has almost no shot of throwing a good game.
Zito is in the rotation only because the Giants are playing him 20 million this season and they’ll keep sending him out there until his arm falls off. If he was making a normal salary, he would be nowhere near a pitching mound. After a lucky first month, Zito has progressively gone from bad to worse in May, June and July. On the road, Zito is 0-6 with an ERA of 9.39 after allowing 69 hits and 37 earned runs in 33.2 innings for a BAA of .426. The big-two overall metrics that wrap up the individual items - xERA and pure quality starts - are again far below desired levels. Zito’s xERA, in fact, is the worse of any pitcher in the big leagues since 2007. These are two frustrated teams and one or both of them is going to put up something crooked here.
Red Dog Sports
Colorado Rockies +152
The Braves won last night and move to 35-15 at home. Juan Nicosia starts for the Rockies and he has pitched well lately after being demoted to the minors. He has allowed just one run in his last 3 starts and won 3-0 at LA recently on the road.
Colorado is a good home team but has solid hitters like Fowler .270, Gonzalez .306 (5-5 last night), Tulowitzki .330, Cuddyer .329, Helton and Rosario.
Alex Wood pitches for the home team and he has mostly been a reliever and allowed 4 runs in 4 innings at the New York Mets. I think there is plenty of value on the road team.
Mike Lineback
Oakland A's Team Over 4 -120
Coming right back with the A's to score some more runs tonight. They have scored 28 runs (7 rpg) in their last 4 games combined. Meanwhile, Toronto have given up 4+ runs in 14 of their L17 games & 5+ runs in 6 of their L8 games overall.
Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals -124
The Kansas City Royals are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now. They have won six straight to get to .500 at 51-51 on the year. They have held their last six opponents to a combined 9 runs in the process!
I look for that dominant starting pitching to continue Tuesday with Ervin Santana on the mound. The right-hander is 6-6 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Royals. Santana is also 5-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 12 career starts against Minnesota.
The Twins give the ball to Mike Pelfrey, who is 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.505 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in nine home starts. Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City as well.
The Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Twins are 16-56 in their last 72 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Minnesota is 2-9 in its last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Twins are 2-8 in Pelfrey's last 10 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the Royals Tuesday.
Greg Shaker
NY Mets +128
There's a lot of talk about Wheeler and his control issues but the Miami Hurler tonight has not done well in that department either One would also think that with a "Fast" Fastball, this guy would be getting a lot more K's than he is. The problem is with movement and he has not developed that part of his game very well. He is off a strong performance at Colorado but let's not forget that the Rockies were slumping at the plate badly at that time. His previous 3 games saw the opposition score 12 times in less than 17 innings. Our guy is a strong prospect to be somebody someday and while he has allowed way too many Dingers so far, he will be pitching in a Non-Dinger Park and verses the worst Dinger Hitting Team in the Big's. The Marlins are Overvalued here. I have bet them 3 times over the last week and I have won betting them each time. But when Oddsmakers start putting out Huge Fav Numbers verses these guys it's time to jump and that is what I am doing. It's easy for Miami to get fired up about playing the Pirates. They are playing the Mets, and they will do so in front of a very small crowd, negating the home field advantage. Let's also consider that the Mets actually have a better road mark than they do at home and they have won the last 4 times that Wheeler and Dealer has taken to the Hill. I'm going to grab this one with both hands and jerk.
Bob Balfe
Texas Rangers -140
The Angels are on a losing streak and last night had a win snatched from them because of a pathetic bullpen. This team can't hit left handers and after a blown game like yesterday its tough to bounce back. Take Texas
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at San Diego
Pick: Cincinnati -150
The Reds let one slip away last night, as they took a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th, but watched the Padres plate a pair of runs for the walk-off win. Mat Latos takes the mound tonight for the Reds, and brings with him a 10-3 mark backed by a 3.39 ERA. That trumps the numbers produced this season by Edinson Valquez who enters at a disappointing 8-8 with a hefty 5.70 ERA. The Reds have now seen each of their last two games result in a loss when their opponents staged a walk-off win in each game. Teams over the past 10 seasons that have faced that fate are strong when coming back at 21-11 with a healthy 15.3% ROI when playing as a road favorite. I think the Reds come to play tonight, as they are 37-15 in Latos' last 52 starts. Play on Cincinnati.
Teddy Covers
Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Kansas City
My clients and I cashed a pair of winners with KC over the weekend in Chicago, riding KC’s current six game winning streak. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the surging Royals won’t be able to notch another victory against the slumping Twins this evening.
Kansas City has a boatload of positive momentum. The Royals are winners of six straight, back to .500 for the season while trailing in the Wild Card race by only five games. Starter Erwin Santana has been as steady and consistent as it gets all year; throwing 15 quality starts in his last 19 trips to the hill. Santana has shut down the Twins twice already this year – 14 innings of work, four earned runs allowed in a pair of KC victories. Coming off an eight inning, one earned run performance against the hot hitting Orioles, look for Santana to take care of business against Minnesota again tonight.
The Royals lineup has underachieved for much of the season, but they’ve had little trouble against the Twins pitching staff while winning seven of ten previous meetings between these two teams this year. KC has scored seven runs or more three times in the last five meetings against Minnesota. They destroyed Mike Pelfrey once already this year (two innings, six earned runs) and the Twins haven’t won for Pelfrey all year: 5-10 in his last 15 trips to the hill. No surprise here if they bash Pelfrey again tonight. Take Kansas City.
Joe Gavazzi
Oakland -150
Try not to get excited about the last start of Buehrle who pitched a 2 hitter with 9 Ks in a 4-0 win. It was only against Houston, the worst team in the league. Now, Buehrle must take to the road where, in 10 starts, he has a 6.44 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Buehrle has never had much success from this mound where, in 13 starts, he is 2-7 with a 4.45 ERA. Far prefer to ride the positive momentum that is Oakland following their wire-to-wire 9-4 rout of the Jays last night. With their 4th consecutive victory, Oakland is now vying for the best record in all of MLB at 63-43. That is courtesy of their recent 43-21 blitz and includes one of the best home records in baseball at 34-16, 24-6 recently and 21-6 following a win. Well aware that Strailly struggled in BBLs vs. LAA but prior to that the As had won 7/9 Strailly starts in which he personally went 5-0. In a similar way, Oakland has won 5/6 Strailly home starts where he has pitched his best ball of the year with a 3.63 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Must be impressed with the youngster's 75/28 KBB for the season!
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Rockies-Braves to sail Over the total with Nicasio and Wood starting.
Last night's contest saw 17 combined runs, and with Wood making just his second start of his career, the runs could be adding up once again tonight.
Nicasio is looking for his third straight win, but keep in mind the Over is 12-6 when he starts this season.
These teams have played 3 straight Overs this season, and the Rockies come into this game having played Over the total in each of their last 4 games.
If you like offense, then Turner Field is the spot for you tonight.
Take the Rockies and Braves to head Over the total once again tonight.
2♦ COLORADO-ATLANTA OVER
Brad Wilton
Tuesday's comp play is the underdog Diamondbacks over the Rays.
Tampa Bay playing a make-up game last night in Boston was extended into the later part of the evening due to a rain delay in the 8th inning, and while they got away with the 2-1 win last night, I look for the Rays to be just a little tired from having to extend themselves last night against their division rival.
Arizona needs to string together some wins, as they have been passed by the Dodgers for the lead in the N.L. West division.
The Diamondbacks will look to get their offense cranking against one of Tampa's lesser starters. Roberto Hernandez has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last 9 starts, and while Ian Kennedy has been a shell of his former 20-win self, I will look for Kennedy to give Arizona the quality start it is looking for against the tired Rays tonight.
Arizona to post the upset win.
2♦ ARIZONA
Brett Atkins
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds, as the home underdog looks awfully good a second night in a row.
After showing up in Los Angeles for a weekend series with the Dodgers as one of the hotter teams in baseball, the Reds have to now be one of the more disappointed teams, as they've lost four straight.
After winning the series-opener in Los Angeles, the Dodgers took the last three, including Sunday's walk-off victory, then last night it was San Diego winning in walk-olff fashion, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth.
This continues to be the right spot for the Friars to gain a little momentum, while avoiding the National League West cellar, where the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants currently reside.
Cincinnati has to be one of the most tired baseball teams in the bigs, having been on the road since July 22 and not having a day off the entire second half. In fact, over the first 11 days since the All-Star Break, the Reds have played 12 games - nine of them on the road.
While the Padres might not be the better team, they're the better choice and certainly the better value. Take the home dog here.
4♦ SAN DIEGO