Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday July, 31

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

When the A's send young phenom Tommy Milone to the mound in Game Two of this four-game series with the Rays Tuesday night, Oakland will do so knowing Milone is in smoking KW form with 41 strikeouts and 2 walks in his last six starts. He is also 7-1 in his eight home team starts with a 0.90 ERA this season. With his opponent, James Shields, winless in his last two starts in this park with a 10.80 ERA, and 1-4 with a 6.76 ERA in his last five away team starts in July, look for the A's to continue their winning ways tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

MTi Sports

Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

The Blue Jays are 0-32 as a road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed four-plus walks as long as they allowed fewer than 18 runs and did not blow a three-plus run lead. Consider a play on the Mariners.

Matt Fargo

New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

San Francisco lost for the fifth straight time last night as it blew a big lead by allowing four runs in the eighth inning before tying it up in the ninth only to lose in extra innings. The Giants remain tied with the Dodgers for first place in the National League West and the pitching needs to turn things around for the Giants to rebound from this skid. The starting pitching has a 5.14 ERA over those five games but tonight the price is right and the Giants are 18-4 in their last 22 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150. The Mets picked up a rare win over a solid team and their two consecutive wins mark the first time in the entire month of July that they have won back-to-back games. New York was in the playoff hunt much of the season before this month as it has gone 7-17 and the once solid pitching has completely fallen off. Of those 24 games, the Mets have allowed five runs or more 19 times including seven runs or more in exactly half of those games. New York is 3-12 in its last 15 against teams with a winning record. The Giants are still fifth in the baseball in ERA despite the recent struggles as well as the season struggles of Tim Lincecum. He is in the midst of his worst season ever and while things started to turn around, he regressed once again in his last start. He opened the second half with two straight quality starts so the potential is still there and facing the Mets can help as he has a 2.77 ERA in eight career starts against them. The Giants are 5-0 in his last five starts against them as well. New York could not have asked for a better Major League debut from Matt Harvey as he allowed no runs on three hits while striking out 11 in 5.1 innings against the Diamondbacks. He is one of the top prospects in the organization as he was picked seventh overall in the 2010 draft and despite a solid opener, we can expect a dropoff here. He takes a step up in competition and his team behind him has struggled in this spot as the Mets are 0-11 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters.

Rob Vinciletti

Indians vs. Royals
Play: Over 9.5

This game fits a nice totals system that has won 11 of 14 times. We want to play the over for home teams like the Royals. that are off a road loss and scored 5 or more runs with 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs. Both teams have solid totals angles going in this one and 16 of the last 20 here have flown over the total. D. Lowe for the Indians has a 5.81 road era and 9.60 in his last 3 overall. Hochevar for the Royals has a 5.72 home era and 6.00 overall in his last 3. Look for this one to go over the total. See the system below. On Tuesday there are 3 Big Plays up. The lead is a 5* Blowout System Side that has all 11 times and 2 Totals, one of which is perfect and has a subset that averages 15 runs. The other total has won 14 of 16 times.

Jesse Schule

Chicago vs. Minnesota
Pick: Over

The Twins won last night's series opener in another high scoring ballgame here in Minnesota. It was the third time in the last four games at Target Field that the total has gone over the number. Tonight we will see former teammates Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn face off against each other on the mound, in what might just prove to be another high scoring affair.

Liriano (3-10, 5.31 ERA) will be making his debut for the White Sox, after being traded by the Twins just a few days ago. He will hope his first game for Chicago will be better than his last game for Minnesota, as he got roughed up badly, allowing seven runs on seven hits, including three homers, in just over two innings, in a 7-4 loss to .. none other than the team he is starting for tonight, Chicago.

Liriano will be feeling a lot of emotions tonight, making his debut for one team, as he takes on his former team. It could work for him or against him, but after a look at his numbers on the season, it isn't likely he comes in here and throws a shutout tonight.

Nick Blackburn will get the call for the Twins, coming off another terrible start. Blackburn (4-6, 7.99ERA) was just destroyed, giving up eight runs on ten hits, including a pair of homers in just over four innings. It was the eighth time in ten starts that Blackburn allowed four or more runs, and he has only gone past the fifth inning twice in his last ten starts. He's allowed multiple home runs in four of his last five starts, and it doesn't stop there ..the numbers just get worse and worse.

The White Sox have eaten Blackburn alive, batting .331 as a team against him. A.J. Pierzynski has faced him 45 times, hitting .356 with three doubles in his career. Alexei Ramirez has seen him 40 times, and he's hitting .350 against Blackburn. Kevin Youkilis has seen him 22 times, he's hitting .409 with a double and a triple. Gordon Beckham has seen him 26 times, and he has hit . 346 with a homer against the right-hander.

I think it is fair to say that this isn't a good matchup for Blackburn, and I definitely expect him to get roughed up again today. We should see the runs cross the plate early and often here in this game, with the total going way over.

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The Amazin' A's scored their 12th walkoff win of the year last night, in a game they absolutely should have lost. With Tommy Milone throwing in Oakland tonight, I'll ride the tide and back the A's.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Chicago White Sox

First place Chicago has a strong offense and faces Nick Blackburn (4-6, 7.99 ERA), who has an ERA of nine his last three starts. Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn had another poor outing last week as he was beaten in Chicago. Blackburn was torn apart for eight earned runs on 10 hits and a walk over just 4 1/3 innings in the defeat. Chicago belted two homers off Blackburn, who struck out just one batter in the game. The White Sox are 12-5 in their last 17 vs. the American League Central. Jake Peavy has thrown well against Minnesota this season with an ERA of 3.00, fanning 13 in 12 innings and only 3 walks. And the Twins are 10-22 in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the White Sox.

Scott Spreitzer

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

Weaver has been absolutely on fire since coming back from his minor back injury and one of those starts was a strong effort in a win in Anaheim over Texas. The Halos struck first last night with a 15-8 win, yet another loss for Texas against teams with a winning record. The Rangers have played 18 games against teams with a winning record at the start of a series since June 1. They're just 6-12 in those outings. Texas has won just 9 of their 22 July contests overall, with a minus-25 run differential. There's no doubt which one of these teams has been playing the better baseball over the last month and I believe it'll be on display again tonight. I'm backing the Angels to go up 2-0 in this important 4-game series.

SPORTS WAGERS

TEXAS +105 over L.A. Angels

Jered Weaver has won seven straight games to run his record to 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA. However, we’re still not buying that he’s this good because the skills suggest otherwise. Weaver has pinpoint control (26 BB) and a decent strikeout rate of 89 k’s in 116 innings. However, he has a fly-ball bias profile and has been greatly aided by an 81% strand rate. With a fly-ball bias profile, it’s no surprise that Weaver has posted an 11.15 ERA while losing his last three starts at this park. In 86 career innings here, covering 14 starts, Weaver has two wins, seven losses and a 5.31 ERA. His xERA of 3.71 is 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA. Weaver isn’t quite the dominant pitcher that his surface stats indicate and this park is testament to that.

Derek Holland has given up three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts since coming off the disabled list. The velocity in his fastball dropped from 94.1 MPH to 91 MPH before his DL stint (shoulder fatigue) but he’s picked it up again and could be in for a strong stretch run. Texas is still an offensive powerhouse while Jered Weaver is overvalued here.

Dave Essler

Rays / A's Over 7

This is almost an auto-bet for me after these teams played so late and used the majority of their bullpens last night. I get that typically "over", "Tampa Bay", and "MacAfee" don't usually go in the same sentence, but quite frankly all it will take is one of these starters to falter to open the floodgates. I have zero faith in Shields at all, and the Rays have already seen Milone. It hasn't mattered whether Cespedes and/or Carter have seen the opposing pitcher (they haven't seen Shields) as they hitting about anyone these days. Add all that to the wind blowing out, which neutralizes some of the size of the park (although not the foul territory) and you've got all in ingredients for an easy winner.

Vegas Experts

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A's
Play: Oakland A's

Keep an eye on starting rotations. Trade deadline is today and James Shields (8-6, 4.39) has been a name that comes up often in the rumor mill. Assuming he is still with Rays by game time he'll be opposed by Tommy Milone (9-6, 3.34). Shields winless in four allowing five or more runs in three of those contests and on a 1-4 team start skid vs A's including 0-2 in Oakland expect Rays to fall to 5-11 L16 trips into Oakland. As for Milone with his sparkling 5-1 stretch at O.co Coliseum and miniscule 0.91 ERA he'll move 7-1 during game-2's of a series.

Rocketman

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics

Oakland is 32-21 this year against teams with a winning record. Oakland is 10-2 this year against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Tampa Bay is scoring only 3.7 runs per game against left handed starters this year and 3.4 runs per game their past seven games overall. Oakland is scoring 7.4 runs per game their past seven games overall. Oakland is allowing only 3.7 runs per game overall this year and 3.3 runs per game at home this season. James Shields takes the mound for Tampa Bay where he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Tom Milone toes the rubber for Oakland where he is 9-7 with a 3.51 ERA overall this year, 5-1 with a 0.90 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA his last 3 starts. Milone has 21 strike outs and only one walk in his past three games. I'm looking for Oakland to continue their winning ways tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland!

Tony Stoffo

Padres vs. Reds
Play: Under 8.5

With Jason Marquis matching up with Homer Bailey here makes for a solid release on the under in this spot tonight. Marquis in his last 3 starts has really come on strong allowing just 6 earned runs resulting in a 2.95 ERA - while Baily for the Reds has been brilliant this month - in his last 3 starts he has allowed just 2 earned runs and striking out 19 in 23 innings pitched - producing a 0.78 ERA. Plus we have a strong umpire trend pointing towards the under here this evening. Under is 20-4-3 in Marquez's last 27 games behind home plate vs. San Diego. Under is 16-4 in Marquez's last 20 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati. Under the 8.5 runs the play here tonight

Lenny Del Genio

Arizona vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers

Last night, we cashed the underdog D'backs in what we labeled as a "clear ambush spot" for the Dodgers (who were coming off a sweep of the rival Giants). The race in the NL West is getting very tight right now with three teams seperated by just 3.5 games and the Dodgers and Giants in a virtual tie atop the division. We see Dodger Blue getting back into the win column Tuesday as this lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup works to their edge, particularly with Chris Capuano as their southpaw. Capuano has been outstanding at home all year w/ a 1.64 ERA in 10 starts. On the flip side, LA is +$840 vs. lefties this season, so they should do some damage against Wade Miley. Go with the home team here.