Bryan Power
Houston vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -1.5
There really aren't enough adjectives to properly describe how bad the Houston Astros are. I grabbed a decent number last night and rode Milwaukee to a come from behind victory. Tonight, with the money line even higher, I'm selecting the Brewers on the Run Line.
Houston has now dropped 26 of their last 29 games. No other way to slice it, that's horrible. Their only win over the last 14 games came Sunday, which is why I thought it was such a good idea to go against them yesterday. Things don't look very rosy for Tuesday with Dallas Keuchel pitching as his ERA over the last three starts is 9.00. The team is 4-27 this season when priced as a road underdog of +150 or higher on the money line. Yes, when factoring in the Run Line, Houston is 4-0 the last four games. But prior to that, they were 0-7 on both the run and money lines.
Yovanni Gallardo is having a bad stretch for Milwaukee, but has always pitched well against the Astros with an 11-2 record and 2.72 ERA. His record is the same on the run line. This includes a 7-1 earlier this month where he allowed only four hits over six innings.
Teddy Covers
Detroit vs. Boston
Pick: Detroit
Josh Beckett is still being priced like a ‘front of the rotation’ starter, despite the fact that he’s been largely ineffective since coming off the DL in June. The Red Sox are just 1-7 in Beckett’s last eight trips to the hill. In four July starts, opponents are hitting .330 against him and he’s got a 6.38 ERA.
Facing the potent Tigers lineup certainly isn’t a recipe for an immediate turnaround. Beckett’s faced them twice already this year and he got shelled both times: 11 earned runs, including five homers, on 17 hits in just 11.2 innings of work. Boston lost those two games by a combined margin of 17-3.
Beckett ‘s recent quote doesn’t sound too confident, bad news for any starting hurler. "Obviously the results aren't what you want them to be, but I have to keep going out there. I can't say that I'm looking at a whole lot of positives from that outing. I got burned whenever I didn't make pitches."
And it’s surely worth noting that he threw 114 pitches in the Texas heat in his last outing. In three previous starts following 104+pitch efforts this year, Beckett has been lit up to the tune of 14 runs allowed in 14.1 innings of work. The Red Sox bullpen behind him has been spotty since the All Star break.
Detroit’s Justin Verlander’s 2012 campaign has been every bit as good as he was during his MVP season last year, with very similar strikeout rates, WHIP, batting average against and ERA. The Tigers are 7-2 in his last nine trips to the hill. He already owns an eight inning, two hit shutout performance against the Red Sox this year, and he gave up only three runs in his two starts against Boston last year. Lay the small chalk! Take the Tigers
Black Widow
Oakland A's -108
The Oakland A's just continue to go under the radar day in and day out. They are right in the thick of the AL West race, while also leading the AL Wildcard race as well. The A's have put themselves in this position by winning 19 of their last 23 games overall. With the edge they have on the mound tonight, I like their chances of pulling out a victory over the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday. Tom Milone has been untouchable at home, going 5-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.804 WHIP in eight starts in 2012. This guy is clearly one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. James Shields has struggled this year, going 8-7 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 21 starts, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.660 WHIP in his last three. In his last start against the A's, Shields gave up 10 earned runs over four innings of a 4-13 loss at Oakland. Milone is 9-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. Take the A's on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -101
The Los Angeles Angels now sit just four games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West division after exploding for 15 runs last night in a Game 1 victory. I look for Jered Weaver to shut down the Rangers in Game 2, while the Angels stay red hot at the plate against Texas' Derek Holland.
Weaver has posted Cy Young-worthy numbers in 2012. The right-hander is 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Weaver is 10-7 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 27 career starts against Texas. He allowed one earned run over seven innings to earn the win in his last start against the Rangers on July 20th in a 6-1 Los Angeles victory.
Holland has been inconsistent all season. The left-hander is 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 15 starts this year, including 3-3 with a 6.06 ERA in eight home starts. Holland is 4-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in 10 career starts against Los Angeles. He was Weaver's opponent in that July 20th game, yielding six earned runs over 6 2/3 innings to take the loss.
The Angels are 41-15 in Weaver's last 56 starts overall, including 15-3 in his 18 starts in 2012. Los Angeles is 7-0 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Angels Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Washington Nationals -140
The Nationals, winners of 8 of their last 9, have the edge tonight with Strasburg on the hill. He's 11-4 (14-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.76 on the season. The Nationals are 12-4 in Strasburg's last 16 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 8-2 in his last 10 starts vs. the National League East. It's been a forgettable season for Philly's Lee, who is 1-6 (5-12 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.95. The Phillies are 2-7 in Lee's last 9 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 road starts. Philadelphia has lost 9 of its last 11 versus the Nats and 6 of its last 8 in Washington. Take the Nationals on the money line.
Jeff Alexander
Pittsburgh Pirates +101
The Cubs have been playing well at home, and Dempster has been dealing all season. However, I'm going to take a Pittsburgh club that is showing value at this underdog price. Dempster often receives little run support. Plus, I have no problem getting behind Burnett here considering the Pirates have won 14 of his last 15 starts. Burnett has won his last 5 starts versus the Cubs while Dempster has dropped his last 3 versus Pittsburgh. Take the Pirates.
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals -132
The Cards are showing value at this price with Lohse on the mound against a Colorado club that has lost 17 of its last 22 at home. The Cardinals are 5-1 in Lohse's last 6 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. He has an ERA of 2.81 in 11 road starts while Colorado's Francis has an ERA of 5.12 in 4 home starts. Bet the Cards.
DAVID BANKS
Angels / Rangers Under 9.5
Most experts felt that the American League West would be a two-horse race between the Los Angeles Angels (55-47) and the Texas Rangers (59-41) before the season, and while Oakland is doing its best to crash the party, the experts will probably be right in the end. To that end, the Angels entered this series in third place and five games behind the division leading Rangers while trailing the second-place Athletics by one-half game, so this series appears to be more crucial for Los Angeles, which does not want to fall further behind. The Angels certainly appear to have the pitching advantage when the teams meet Tuesday night at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET in a game that can be seen nationally on MLB Network.
The Halos were shut out over the weekend by the Tampa Bay Rays while suffering tough losses by scores of 3-0 and 2-0 respectively, so to say that the offense needs to wake up would be a gross understatement. The pitching performances over the weekend were certainly encouraging though and that figures to be the case again on Tuesday with a Cy Young Award candidate in Jered Weaver on the mound. Weaver is personally a remarkable 13-1 with the Angels as a team going 15-3 in the games that he has started, as he has an American League leading 2.26 ERA to go along with a scintillating 0.95 WHIP over 115.2 innings! Weaver has not been striking out as many batters as of late as he was earlier in the season, but he still has a fine ratio of 89 strikeouts vs. 26 walks and he has continued to get batters out, allowing two runs or less in six of his seven starts since coming off of the Disabled List on June 20th. This stretch includes a brilliant start vs. these Rangers in Anaheim 10 days ago when allowed only one run and six hits in seven innings of a 6-1 Angels' victory. Weaver could be catching Texas at the perfect time too as it is batting an uncharacteristic .233 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games heading into Monday's series opener, with even Josh Hamilton starting to hear some boos from the usually supportive home crowd.
The Rangers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games overall entering Monday, allowing the Angels and even the A's to hang around, and the only reason Texas has four wins in that span is because the starting pitchers have a collective 3.78 ERA. Tuesday starter Derek Holland got one of those wins last Wednesday when he posted a Quality Start against the Red Sox, allowing three runs on only five hits in 7.2 innings. Holland is having a very erratic season as he is 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA, and he will need to be at his best vs. a pitcher of Weaver's caliber for Texas to have a chance here. With that said Holland is actually on a pretty good cycle right now as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts. That is the good news, but the bad news is that the one bad start in Holland's last five outings came vs. these Angels, who roughed him up for six earned runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings when also matched up with Weaver on July 20th. Furthermore, Holland has not handled the wind tunnel blowing out in Arlington well as he has a bloated 5.94 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his home stadium. Yes, the Angels were held scoreless on Saturday and Sunday, but they still rank second in the American League behind these Rangers with a .269 team batting average.
The Angels as a team have gone 7-3 the last 10 times that Weaver has started against Texas and the Halo lead the season series 5-4 so far in 2012, although the Rangers won two of the three meetings in Arlington pending Monday's result.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis -139 over COLORADO: St Louis had a day off to stew over losing 2 of 3 in Chicago. Yes they lost the last 2 in Chgicago, but the Cubs have played really well at home of late. Just ask Pittsburgh. After that series and the fact that Cincinnati just swept Colorado here this is a very big series for the Cards as they look for a return to the post season. The Rockies are just 20-32 in their own park this year, including just 2-9 in their last 11 here. Pitching for the Rockies have been a big problem for them as they come in with a 5.87 ERA in their last 10, while they have a 5.84 ERA in their home games on the year. A shitty staff in this park does not add up to a lot of wins. Tonight Jeff Francis gets the call and while the Rockies are 3-1 in his home starts, he does have a 5.12 ERA in those starts. Making it tougher for him tonight is the fact that he will be facing a Cardinals team that averages 5.8 rpg vs lefties on the year and they have gone 19-11 vs them. The Rockies do average 5.73 rpg at home, but they have struggled of late, averaging just 3.5 rpg in their last 11 at Coors. It won't get easier for them tonight as they face Kyle Lohse, who has been very good for them this year. Kyle is 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA overall and 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA on the road. Kyle has faced the Rockies 4 times from 2010 till now and he has allowed just 5 ER's total in the four starts, while in his lone start here over that stretch he went won the game allowing just 2 ER's in 6 innings of work. The Rockies will play the roll of spoiler the rest of this year, but with their pitching they just won't be able to handle the roll. The need this one much more and clearly have the edge on the mound and should take game one here.
NY Mets/ San Francisco Over 6.5: Tim Lincecum has pitched pretty well of late and he does own a 3.90 ERA at home with those games averaging just 6.4 rpg, but he also has a 5.53 ERA at night and those games have averaged 9.79 rpg. He has pitched well vs the Mets in his career (1.09 ERA L5 Starts vs them), but will be taking on a team that has averaged 5.1 rpg away from home on the year. Vs righties on the road the Mets have hit .271 and have scored 5.6 rp/9 innings off of them. The Giant offense is not that great, but could be upgraded tonight after the trade deadline and they did show signs of breaking out last night, by pounding out 16 hits and 7 runs in the 8-7 loss. Matt Harvey has a great debut vs the D-Backs, but still this is just his second career start and he wasn't all that superb in the minors this year, so I look for a desperate Giants offense to get some hits and runs off of him. I don't expect either strter to go the distance here and that means the Pens come into play. The Mets have the worst pen ERA on the road (5.53), while the Giants pen has been knocked around of late with a 4.75 ERA in their last 10 games. Last night the pens combined to allow 9 ER's combined in the 8, 9th and 10th innings and we could see more of the same tonight. This game could flirt with double digits.
Detroit -125 over BOSTON: Google News Play Justin Verlander is one of the besat pitchers in baseball and he know how to bounce back from a tough outing. In his 4 starts following a game in which he has allowed 4 ER's or more he is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA and if you include his outing the All-Star game then he has gone 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA following those tough outings. Verlander is also 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Sox. Josh Beckett has really struggled for Boston and he is 2-5 with a 4.55 ERA and he has gone 2-7 with a 5.27 ERA at night on the year. Boston is just 2-9 in his night starts. He is also 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA in his last 3 starts vs Detroit. The Sox have played well of late, but may be without Becket and Jarod S. for this one, plus Ortiz is out and Detroit needs a big win. With or without Beckett I like Detroit in this one.
Philadelphia/ Washington Over 6.5: Stephen Strasburg is coming close to his 160 inning pitch limit this year, so I don't see him going too deep in this one. That will give the ball over to a Nats pen that has a 4.74 ERA in it's last 10 games. Lets also note that in Stephens last 5 starts their pen has allowed 14 total runs once he has left the game. I Know the Phils offense has been struggling and they will be without Victorino and maybe Pence for this one, but they still have some pop ion their bats and they do average 4.4 rpg on the road, including 4.1 rpg in games that Lee has started. Speaking of Lee, He may be traded by game time, but if he isn't he comes in with a 3.54 ERA on the road and a 4.12 ERA at night on the year. He has made 3 career starts in this park and has a 4.21 ERA in those starts. The Nationals have cranked it up offensively as they have averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 10 games. They average just 4.1 rpg at home, but in their last 14 in this park they have cranked out 5.4 rpg. I know the Phils roster may look very different tonight, but even if Lee doesn't start, whoever does would still be a downgrade from him. The Phils should get 1 or two off of Strasburg and they get a few more once he is out of there. Look for at least 8 runs in this one.
POWER ANGLES FOR TONIGHT (13-3 RUN) (22-11 +8.21 UNITS)
Since 2009 Toronto is 1-32 as a road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had a least 4 wealks and did not hold a lead of 3+ runs in that game. Play on Seattle -122 over Toronto
Play on any team that averages 4.1 rpg or less with a starter that has a WHIP of 1.450 to 1.550 vs a team that has a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or higher. This play is 32-14 since 1997. Play On San Francisco -145 over NY Mets
Stan Lisowski
LA Dodgers
Dodgers have been outstanding at home against southpaw hurlers, winning 11 of 15 games. Arizona is just 5-12 in game 2 of a series if they won the opening matchup. LA starter Capuano is solid on this field with a 1.64 ERA.
Scott Delaney
Aiming for free pick winner #4 of 6 tonight, I'm going to lay the run line with the Atlanta Braves over the Miami Marlins, as the National League East rivals meet at Turner Field for the second game of their four-game series. The Braves won the first meeting last night, 8-2, making it six in a row now. During this six-game run, Atlanta has outscored its foes, 33-10, never allowing more than three runs in any of the games.
The Braves inched closer to the Washington Nationals, who were idle last night and are now just 3-1/2 games in front of second-place Atlanta in the National League East standings. The Braves are an impressive 17-8 in the month of July, and don't appear ready to let off the gas pedal or by releasing any pressure they've applied on the front-running Nats.
Atlanta is 23-16 in division play, while the Marlins are a sub-par 15-18 when taking on East-division teams this season. Making matters worse for Miami, it is now 29-41 against right-handed starters.
The Braves hand the ball to Kris Medlen, who will make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2010. He's been an integral part of the bullpen, but with Jair Jurrjens struggling, this spot start give Medlen a chance to prove his worth as a starter.
The Marlins are giving the ball to right-hander Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA this month, and who is 5-9 with a 5.18 ERA lifetime against the Braves.
I'm like the Braves on the run line here, as they should get the best of Miami and will send Nolasco to the showers early. All Atlanta.
2♦ ATLANTA -1.5
Craig Davis
Gave you a free play winner on Oakland last night, now 51-34 with my comp play releases.
Tuesday's free play is the Milwaukee Brewers on the Run Line over the Houston Astros.
The Astros are a completely different team when they play at home and on the road, and fortunately for us tonight, they are on the road.
Houston keeps finding ways to lose on the road, and last night was no different. After scoring three runs in the first seven innings to grab a 3-0 lead, the Brewers would score 4 in the 7th and 4 in the 8th to take an 8-4 lead heading into the top of the 9th.
Houston would score three more times but fell up one run short. That's the story of their year.
I think I can sum up this series by looking at last year's series record. Milwaukee 12, Houston 3.
Granted, Houston was probably worse last year than this year, but still... 12-3 is horrendous for any major league team.
Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo shoots for yet another win against the Astros in his career. Back on July 6 Gallardo beat the Astros 7-1 over six innings of work to run his overall career record against them to 11-2 in 13 starts. Houston has managed only a .229 batting average against him.
Folks, think about it... there's a reason that Milwaukee is listed as a -260 money line favorite in this one. Houston sucks badly on the road and Gallardo flat out owns them. This one could be ugly by the 5th inning.
Free play of the day on the Milwaukee Brewers on the run line.
2♦ MILWAUKEE -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is to roll with the home-loving Seattle Mariners.
Seattle has reeled off five straight wins at Safeco Field, and they are 6-2 on their current July homestand.
Last night the Mariners held the Blue Jays to just one run in the series opener, as Seattle pitching is allowing just under three runs per game through their last eight at home.
Jason Vargas is shooting for his fifth straight win, and has allowed just eight runs his last 43-plus innings pitched. Going to be tough for the slumping Toronto offense - just two runs scored their last pair of games - to get much going against Vargas tonight.
Aaron Laffey has gone 2-0 his last three trips to the bump, but his ERA is a little fat at 4.08 in that span.
I like the Mariners to extend to a sixth straight win versus a Blue Jays team that has dropped four of their last seven.
2♦ SEATTLE
Chris Jordan
My free pick run is now at 15-7, and tonight I'm laying the heavy chalk with the deserved favorite in the Washington Nationals. They continue to lead the National League East, they've had the night off and they catch a traveling Philadelphia Phillies team that is so caught up in trade talks and, who knows, could be shuffling new players in and out by the time this game starts. There's just too much going on with the struggling Phils.
And it's getting worse, mentally, for preseason favored Philadelphia, which so many had penciled as the National League representative in the World Series, if not the World Series champ.
As it is, the Phils are in last place in the N.L. East, if they were in the American League they'd have the third-worst record on the junior circuit and they arrive in the nation's capital on a three-game losing streak.
Ready to pounce, has to be the Nationals' young and powerful squad. I know the Phils are handing the ball to Cliff Lee, but really, how much longer is everyone going to hold out for his second win of the season? He's 1-6 with a 3.95 ERA this year, and he comes in after allowing 12 hits, six runs, one walk, four home runs and six strikeouts over seven innings during a comeback win over the Brewers. Yes, I said win. But that was his team - he didn't notch the victory. He has a 5.10 ERA in his past seven starts.
On the other hand, you have Stephen Strasburg toeing the slab for the Nationals, and the hard-throwing righty is in after dominating the Mets on Wednesday, by striking out 11, scattering four hits and allowing one earned run over seven innings. Over his last 10 starts, he's allowed no more than three earned runs in just one game.
In Strasburg's last 10 starts he's averaging 8.1 strikeouts per contest, while he's struck out 11.6 batters per nine innings in 2012.
This one is a mismatch boys, as Strasburg and company get the money tonight.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Matt Rivers
Your Tuesday free play winner is the Over in the Orioles-Yankees game.
Well aware that last night's game just did hold Under the total to make it seven of the nine season series meetings having played Under this year between the teams, but with four home runs belted last night, I just get the feeling that a few more balls may be landing in the seats this Tuesday night in the Bronx.
Yankees starter Ivan Nova has an over five ERA for his last three starts, and he also has an over five ERA for his starts at home this year.
Baltimore hurler Chris Tillman is making only his 5th start of the year for the O's, and while he has looked strong in limited duty thus far, this New York attack has the capability of making any pitcher look bad for the night.
Runs going to add up in this one. Play Baltimore and New York to go Over the total tonight.
3♦ OVER