Andrew Lange
Detroit at Boston
Play: Over
Pretty amazing to see yesterday's Detroit/Boston game lined at 9.5 (it went over) and tonight's a run and a half lower. The reason of course is that the combo of Max Scherzer and Clay Buchholz doesn't sound as dominant as Justin Verlander and Josh Beckett. And we all know, it is Verlander who is the key ingredient in this total being so low for Fenway. Verlander is always capable of being unhittable but there are some situations that make him a little-less human. For starters, teams facing him for a second time this season have had a good amount success. In second turns against Tampa, Cleveland, New York and Boston, Verlander's combined ERA is 6.04. In an earlier outing in Fenway, the Red Sox – who have as strong of home splits (.279/.340/.465/.805) as anyone in baseball – got to Verlander for five runs and 10 hits in six innings (both seasonal worsts). On the other side of the equation, we have Josh Beckett who has been so inconsistent (and hittable) this season that our bet on the OVER could still be in play even if Verlander is dialed in. Beckett has run the gauntlet here of late in facing Texas, Toronto, Tampa and New York. He hung in there but recorded only one quality start out of the four. Like Boston seeing Verlander for a third time, this will mark Beckett's third appearance against Detroit. The first two were anything but pretty: 11.1 IP, 17 hits, 11 earned runs, and only 4 strikeouts. We have at times two unreliable bullpens, Detroit's shaky defense, and an inevitable short porch home run or two adding to the probability of this game getting OVER.
GoodFella
Oakland A's -110
James Shields is simply not the man of the last several years. He's got a career WHIP of 1.26 but this season it's 1.46 which is bordering on fade material every time. Oakland sends out talented youngster Milone, he's a left handed pitcher and that's something the Rays struggle with, which could only be magnified in this big ball park with the huge amount of foul ground. Milone has been absolutely outstanding at his HOME park (5-1 0.91 ERA) .184 BAA, in 8 starts. After last night's marathon, the Rays have to come back to the park knowing the blew a late lead AND used all their bullpen, which puts even more pressure on Shields. Having a RHP on the mound will give both Cespedes and Carter MORE pitches to see, since they cannot pitch around Reddick and Seth Smith. Shields is simply not great at holding runners, so the Crisps' and Weeks' of the world should turn singles into scoring position all night long. The A's are at home so will be far less effected by the late night, and quite frankly more energized.My money is on the streaking A's tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA 1½ +126 over Miami
The Marlins remain a top fade. They’re a frustrated and disengaged club right now with just six wins over their past 19 games. Eight of those contests were on the road in which the Fish went 1-7 with lone win coming at Wrigley. In nine games against the Braves this season, Miami has just two wins. The losses were mostly one-sided affairs that include 11-0, 7-0, 8-4, 7-2 and 8-2.
Atlanta’s Kris Medlen was called up in mid-June and has been working out of the pen since his call-up in preparation for this more comfortable role. He’s now ready after 54 relief innings. His pre-injury skills showed nothing but promise. He has a 52% groundball rate and his strikeout rate continues to ascend. Over his past 12 innings of relief, Medlen has whiffed 11 and walked three. Expect the Braves to be a little extra amped here in support of Medlen, a pitcher who everyone on the club is rooting for.
Ricky Nolasco’s skills continue to decline. His strikeout rate has dropped for three straight years and the result is a well-deserved 4.80 ERA. Nolasco is not the pitcher he once was and the Marlins have lost Nolasco’s last four starts and seven of his last nine. Nothing suggests this one will be any different.