Bobby Maxwell
I've got a FREE winner for you today from the desert as I go ahead and play the Cubs on the road in Phoenix to take on the D'Backs.
The Cubs send their best pitcher to the hill tonight in Arizona in Carlos Silva (8-2, 2.96 ERA) who is looking to get back on the winning track after a long dry spell. The Cubs have already taken four of five from the Diamondbacks this season and expect them to make it five of six tonight.
Silva is 4-0 on the road with a 3.06 ERA. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since May 7, a streak of nine starts, including on Wednesday when he gave up two runs in 7.2 innings against the Reds, but his offense didn’t deliver and the Cubs fell 3-2. Chicago has lost each of his last four outings, but that’s no fault of Silva who hasn’t gotten much support.
For Arizona, Barry Enright is making just his second career start after beating the Cardinals in his debut a week ago.
Chicago is 4-1 in Silva’s last five roadies, 5-1 the last six times he’s faced a losing team and 5-2 when he gets four days off. The Cubs also dominate the N.L. West, winning eight of their last nine against that division.
Things have not been good for Arizona, firing its manager and general manager and they are currently riding negative streaks of 12-27 overall, 16-41 as underdogs, 8-21 against losing teams, 5-16 on Tuesday, 1-5 at home and 0-7 at home against losing teams.
The Cubs crushed the D’Backs on Monday, 9-4, and now they send Silva to the mound to shut down the Arizona bats again. I’ll load up on the Cubs in this one.
2♦ CHICAGO CUBS
SPORTS WAGERS
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Netherlands –1.35 over Uruguay
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The "South American World Cup" took a turn for the worse when three of their four teams were eliminated in the quarterfinals at the hands of European teams. Uruguay, the second smallest nation participating in the tournament, is the last South American team standing and now must face the Netherlands for a spot in the final. The 'Oranje' shocked the world (but not us) and knocked off football superpower Brazil with a very impressive 2-1 victory. They trailed 1-0 at halftime and then did the unthinkable in scoring two unanswered goals in the second half. The Brazilians were all over the Netherlands early in the contest, scoring a goal in just the 10th minute, due to a number of Dutch defensive blunders. The Netherlands buckled down defensively and held the Brazilians to just a handful of opportunities as the game progressed. The Dutch hadn't been out of third gear in this World Cup prior to its victory over Brazil but they still entered that match playing impressive football on both sides of the ball. They swept through their group with relatively easy victories over Denmark, Japan and Cameroon. Holland would have kept a clean sheet throughout the group stage if not for a converted penalty kick by Samuel Eto'o. They were robbed of another shutout in their Round-16 match vs. Slovakia when the Slovaks were wrongly awarded a penalty kick in the dying seconds of stoppage time. The Dutch have only allowed 16 shots on target in the entire tournament and only one of its three goals allowed has been surrendered from regular play. The Uruguayans have also played a tight game defensively in this World Cup, surrendering just 18 shots on target and two goals. They shared an auspicious honor with only Portugal in keeping a clean sheet throughout the group stage. Uruguay won their group in impressive fashion, with victories against both Mexico and South Africa and a draw against France. They dominated South Korea in their Round-16 match, even though the score line would only read 2-1. When Uruguay was not just focused on stopping the Koreans, they were nearly impossible to contain and dispossess. They fell behind 1-0, in their quarterfinal match against Ghana, when goalkeeper Nestor Muslera was caught napping on a shot from long range. Diego Forlan netted the equalizer in the second half and Uruguay went on to win, via penalty kicks, in what was certainly the most dramatic game of this World Cup. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez have announced themselves to the world as one of the most lethal combos in international play. Forlan is a magician with the ball and Suarez is a goal scorer through and through. One problem though... Luis Suarez is not eligible to play in this match, after receiving a red card for "smartly" blocking a Ghanaian match-winning goal with his hand in the final minute of extra time. Forlan is brilliant but a Suarez-less offense should essentially cripple the Uruguayan scoring attack. Uruguay will also be without defender Jorge Fucile due to a one game suspension and it's also a possibility that defensive anchor and captain Diego Lugano will miss the match with a knee injury. Holland will have some personnel issues of their own, with suspensions to both Gregory van der Wiel and Nigel De Jong. The Netherlands enters this match on an incredible 24-game unbeaten streak and they are the only team in this World Cup to have won every match that they have played. Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder are two of the best footballers on the planet and you can rest assure they will have a huge impact on this match. With the key losses in the Uruguayan squad it's very likely that the Netherlands will constantly be on the attack. Uruguay has not faced an offense as explosive as the Netherlands and it's hard to imagine that they will be able to hold them off for 90 minutes. Without Suarez it's difficult to envision Uruguay scoring a goal on this stingy Dutch defense. The Uruguayans will also have to avoid a "letdown" after the emotional rollercoaster of their quarterfinal match. The Netherlands is peaking at the right time and enters this match with all kinds of momentum. They are the better team, with a more impressive resume, and they are capable of putting this match out of reach very early. It should be noted that if the unthinkable was to happen and Uruguay was to advance in this match we would have our Uruguay: TO WIN WORLD CUP wager alive at over 17-1. Play: Netherlands –1.35 (Risking 2.7 units to win 2).
Matt Fargo
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Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Kansas City started this series with a win last night and it now sends its ace to mound for Game Two. The Royals have been playing real well, going 4-1 over their last five games as well as 8-3 over their last 11 games. The road has not been as good as home but they are a respectable 19-25 in road games on the season. Seattle had been playing much better but it is once again slumping, going 1-4 over its last five games. The Mariners are just a game over .500 at home which is far from strong. Zack Greinke is pitching very well again this season but he simply is not winning and that has due to poor run support but it has gotten better and should continue to do so. He is coming off a poor outing in his last start and gives us some added value in a great bounce back situation. He has tossed three straight quality performances prior to that game against the White Sox, and on the season, he has tossed seven quality outings in nine road starts. In his last six games against the Mariners, all have been quality efforts including four games where he allowed no runs and that has been the case in the last three where he is currently riding a 29-inning shutout streak. The Mariners counter with Ryan Rowland-Smith who has been pretty horrible all season. He is coming off a quality start but those have been few and far between and it sets up a good spot to play against. He is 1-7 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 14 starts with Seattle going 3-11 in those games. The Royals roughed him up for five runs in five innings in his lone start against them this season. The Mariners are 4-17 in Rowland-Smith’s last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 3* Kansas City Royals
Bryan Leonard
Los Angeles at Chicago
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Jered Weaver was left off the All-Star team surprisingly as he has been outstanding this season. He has led the league in strikeouts and has a 2.82 ERA entering play tonight. He's been even better as of late with a 2.11 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has completely owns the White Sox in the last 5 meetings with a remarkable 0.52 ERA.
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Jake Peavy has pitched much better as of late with 5 straight quality starts. But those games came against the likes of the Cubs twice, Washington, Kansas City and Cleveland.
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The Angels have the more consistent offense and the Sox are just 21-19 at home this season. We'll go with the motivated hurler to once again shut down this Chicago lineup.
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PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Lenny Del Genio
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Yankees at Athletics
Play: Under
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Play NY at Oakland Under – great pitching matchup tonight in Oakland with Sabathia facing Cahill. CC is getting into one of those groves as in his last three starts he’s been nearly unhittable with a 0.75 ERA. Meanwhile, Oakland’s Cahill doesn’t get much publicity but he’s quietly put up a 10-3 team start record and 2.74 ERA. At home he’s been very tough with a 1.35 ERA. CC faced these A’s once this season way back in April and he went eight innings and allowed only four hits and three earned runs. He was a bit wild allowing six walks but that was early in the season. CC’s on his game and we don’t see the A’s putting up many runs on him tonight. This will be the first time the Yankees face this tough righty and don’t see them scoring many runs. These two teams played a low scoring game last night and it will be another under tonight.
VEGAS INSIDER
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Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
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The Rangers are 8-0 when C.J. Wilson starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and the Indians are 0-9 with Justin Masterson when he threw more than 100 pitches at home in his last start. A perfect 17-0 for the Rangers. Consider Texas.
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Play on: Texas Rangers
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on New York Yankees -146
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Cahill may be having a terrific season for the A's, but the Yankees get the call here. Sabathia is dialed in right now. The lefty has won his last 6 starts, and he is carrying an ERA of only 0.75 over his last 3. He is 4-1 on the money line in his last 5 starts against the A's, and I expect his success against them to continue tonight. Oakland has had all kinds of trouble against southpaw starters, hitting just .253 and scoring only 3.6 runs per game against them. Meanwhile, New York is hitting .283 and scoring 5.7 runs per game against righty starters. New York has also had Oakland's number. The Yankees have won 15 of 19 meetings in this matchup the last 3 seasons. The Yankees are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite while the Athletics are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Take the Yankees.
Tom Freese
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New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
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Oakland starter Trevor Cahill has allowed 3 or less runs 11 of his 13 starts this year. The Athletics are 8-1 with Cahill in his last 9 home starts. Oakland is 7-3 their last 10 games overall and they are 14-3 with Cahill his last 17 starts following a quality start in his last game. Yankee starter C.C. Sabathia is pitching great this year going 11-6 in 17 starts. Sabathia could be distracted has he is pitching tonight where he grew up. The Yankees are 2-5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. New York is 0-5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their last game.
JR O'Donnell
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WAS (+100) vs SDP
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Nationals JR O STYLE as the Padres who are not scoring right now are way to easy to take tonight @ a pickem on the road. Come on boys, The 49-33 Padres and C Richard -120 tonight vs a Livan Hernandez lead Nationals ball club. JR IS GOING WITH THE HOME TEAM + 100 and solid L Hernandez pitcher @ 4-1 the last 5 and a 1.75 ERA, He is in the zone at home and the Nationals are dangerous here !Padres are 2-5 in Richards last 7 starts as a favorite and the Nat's are a smooth 4-0 in Hernandezs last 4 starts as a home underdog. Play the Nat's
ROCKETMAN
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San Francisco @ Milwaukee
Play: San Francisco
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San Francisco is now 42-40 overall this year while Milwaukee comes in with a 37-46 overall record on the season. Milwaukee is 2-7 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. San Francisco has won 2 of their last 3 while Milwaukee has lost 3 of their last 4 games overall. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.25 ERA in all games this year. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.35 ERA overall this year and a 5.62 ERA at home this season. Randy Wolf is 2-3 with a 5.25 ERA at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
Insider Angles
Jeff Niemann of the Tampa Bay Rays is quickly proving that his 2009 breakout season was not a fluke, and with the Boston Red Sox starting an unproven hurler here in Felix Doubront, we will go for the value with the Rays on the Run Line.
Niemann came seemingly out of nowhere last season with his 13-6 record and 3.94 ERA, but he has continued his improvement by pitching even better this season. Granted, he is just 6-2, but that does not tell the whole story as he ranks sixth in the American League with his 2.80 ERA, and he also has an excellent 1.08 WHIP in 106 innings. Neimann has incredibly allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of his 16 starts with 13 official Quality Starts.
While he has not gotten many decisions himself in those 16 starts, it is worth noting that the Rays as a team are 12-4 in every game Niemann started, meaning that he almost always pitches well enough to keep Tampa Bay in the game. Also, his only start vs. Boston this year was a good one, as he allowed two runs on only five hits in seven innings.
Doubront is making his second Major League start, and he was not impressive in his debut vs. the Dodgers on June 18, allowing five runs and eight baserunners in five innings of a fortunate 10-6 victory. It is unlikely that he will go much more than five innings in this game either, which means that the Boston bullpen should be called on early. That is definitely not a good thing considering the Red Sox pen entered Monday with a horrific 9.88 ERA in the last 10 games!
On the other hand, the Tampa Bay pen has a 3.47 ERA during that same span, meaning that the Rays should have a rather big pitching edge from start to finish on Tuesday night, making the Run Line a worthwhile investment.
Pick: Rays -1.5 +130
WUNDERDOG
Indiana at Chicago
Pick: Indiana -155
This becomes a big game for Indiana who after last season's run to the WNBA Championship round, find themselves two full games behind Washington for second place in the East. The 9-6 record is good, but since they started 0-2, they have since gone 9-4. This team was out of the gate at 2-3, but has since only lost three games - all to teams with winning records, that combine for a 37-13 mark. Chicago is playing better, but certainly not in the mold of teams that have beaten Indiana now that they have things going. With this being a huge game for the Fever, a win is in order. I'll go with Indiana on the moneyline.
Gamblers World
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Play: San Diego Padres
The Padres will pin their hopes on the pitching of lefthander Clayton Richard in this game. Richard has a 6-4 record and a 2.74 ERA this season. Starting this game for the Nationals will be Livan Hernandez. The righthander has a 2.98 ERA to go along with a 6-4 record this season. Tony Gwynn drove in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth to give the Padres a 3-2 win over the Astros, as -152 favorites. The game's five runs went UNDER the posted over/under (7) set by sportsbooks. Aaron Cunningham cracked a two-run single to drive in the other runs for the Padres. Heath Bell pitched a scoreless ninth and improved to 4-0 in relief. Take the Padres tonight
John Ryan
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Connecticut Sun vs. San Antonio Silver Stars
Play: Connecticut Sun +1.5
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5* graded play on Connecticut as they take on San Antonio set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Connecticut will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-9 for 78% winners since 1997. Play on any team that is an explosive offensive team scoring 77+ points/game on the season and after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. San Antonio is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Our simulator also shows that there is a very high probability that Connecticut will score between 78 and 82 points in this game. Note that SA is just 5-31 ATS (-29.1 Units) when they allow 78 to 82 points in a game since 1997. Take Connecticut.
SEAN MURPHY
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals have quietly been one of the hottest teams in baseball lately, winning eight of their last 11 games overall. After beating Felix Hernandez in the opener of this series last night, they should be high on confidence as they send their own ace to the hill on Tuesday night.
Few could have predicted that the Royals would be the best hitting team in baseball in the first week of July, but that's exactly where they stand. They're hitting .283 as a team this season, and .307 over their last 10 ball games.
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The Mariners are at the opposite end of the spectrum. They're hitting just .240, and limp into Tuesday's contest having dropped four of their last five games overall. They're not winning many games without Felix Hernandez or Cliff Lee on the mound and that's a trend I expect to see continue tonight.
Zack Greinke will get the call for the visiting Royals. It appears he has turned the corner, posting a 3-1 team record over his last four outings. Even though he was roughed up by the White Sox in his last start, he still managed to earn the win. He did allow 10 hits and six earned runs in that game, but needed just 105 pitches to get through eight innings, and didn't walk a single batter. He's posted an impressive 26:2 strikeout to walk ratio over his last four starts.
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Greinke hasn't lost in Seattle since way back in 2005. He's made a pair of starts here since, going the distance in both, with the Royals winning those games by 5-1 and 3-0 scores.
The current Mariners roster is hitting just .135 and slugging .167 in 96 career at-bats against Greinke. They have just one extra-base hit, that being a home run from Jose Lopez (he's 1-for-17 against Greinke).
The Mariners will hand the ball to Ryan Rowland-Smith. He remains in the rotation only out of necessity as Erik Bedard suffered a setback and wasn't able to make his scheduled return. Despite holding opposing hitters to a .220 average, Rowland-Smith owns just one victory in five starts at Safeco Field this season. After holding the Yankees to five hits and two earned runs over six innings in his last start, I look for some regression from the left-hander here.
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The current Royals roster is hitting .225 and slugging .366 against Rowland-Smith, but only Billy Butler and David DeJesus have faced him more than eight times, and they're 8-for-22 (.364) against him.
The Royals are just 18-40 in their last 58 games against a left-handed starter, but that doesn't mean much when you consider they've won three straight against southpaws.
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This is a clear case of two teams heading in opposite directions, and after suffering a tough extra innings loss after blowing a 4-1 lead last night, I have a hard time envisioning the Mariners picking themselves up off the mat. Take Kansas City.