LEE KOSTROSKI
Orioles @ Tigers
PICK: Over 9.5
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The Orioles and Tigers combined for 21 runs and 31 hits in yesterday’s game, including 14 runs scored in the first two innings. Both starting pitchers failed to get through the second inning and both teams had to rely heavily on the bullpen as the game stayed close enough most of the way. Baltimore is batting .291 against right-handed pitching over the last ten games while Detroit is batting .285 in those match-ups. The Tigers have averaged six runs per game over the last eight contests to climb back into first place in the AL Central but the Tigers have also allowed 5.5 runs per game in that stretch.
Baltimore still owns the worst record in baseball but the Orioles are 6-5 in the last eleven games. The offense has improved dramatically, averaging 5.5 runs per game in that span but still allowing at least three runs in all but one of those games. The ‘over’ is 10-4-1 in the last 15 Baltimore games and the Orioles have featured one of the worst bullpens in the AL. The bullpen could again be called upon early tonight with rookie Jacob Arrieta on the mound.
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Arrieta owns a 5.81 ERA for the season and only once in five starts did he allow fewer than three runs. Walks have been a problem as Arrieta has 16 walks allowed while producing just 13 strikeouts. Arrieta’s numbers are poor despite mainly facing weak offensive teams as his last four starts have come against the A’s, Nationals, Padres, and Giants. That could be problematic facing a Tigers team that hits .286 in home games.
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Armando Galarraga has struggled in his last three starts after a great start to his 2010 season. Galarraga has allowed 14 runs in his last three starts, twice getting bounced before completing the fifth inning. The ‘over’ has hit in each of his last three outings and while his numbers are stronger at home, he not pitched well in night games. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these teams in Detroit. For the season Comerica Park has leaned slightly to the ‘under’ but the ‘over’ is 7-3 in the last ten games with the weather warming up.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals +109
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I'll back Livan Hernandez and the Nationals at home Tuesday at a solid price. Hernandez has revived his career in Washington, going 6-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.259 WHIP with the Nationals winning 10 of his 16 starts overall. The righty has been virtually unbeatable at home, going 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 9 home starts. In fact, Washington has gone 8-1 in his 9 home starts this season. Clayton Richard has posted solid numbers this year for San Diego, but the Padres are just 8-8 in his 16 starts this season. Richard gave up 4 earned runs along with 2 home runs in 7 innings of a 3-5 home loss to the Nationals earlier this year on May 28th.
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Washington is a solid 14-5 against the money line in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. The Nationals are also 14-3 against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. San Diego is 2-5 in Richard's last 7 starts as a favorite. After the Padres great first half, you will find solid value betting against them in the second half this season as they've clearly overachieved to this point. The Nats have won 7 straight home games with Hernandez on the bump and you can chalk up an 8th in a row tonight. Roll with Washington Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -115
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Hernandez has been strong at home for the Nats this season, but the Padres have had his number. The Nationals are 0-5 in Hernandez's last 5 starts vs. the Padres. In fact, the entire NL West has had the number of Hernandez. He is just 1-12 on the money line against NL West opponents over the last 2 seasons, losing these starts by an average score of 2.2 to 6.0. In addition, San Diego has had no trouble winning in Washington. The Padres are 14-3 in their last 17 trips to the nation's capitol. San Diego brings the lefty Richard to the mound (2.29 road ERA), and he figures to have the edge considering the Nationals are 12-29 in their last 41 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite and the Nationals are 6-24 in their last 30 games as an underdog. Take the Padres.
Info Plays
3* on Detroit Tigers -187
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Reasons the Tigers win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher who strikes out 3 or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. This is a 59-10 ML System hitting 85.5% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 3-0 this season. Bet the Tigers at home.
Scott Spreitzer
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Twins at Blue Jays
Play: Twins
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Carl Pavano has quietly had a great season, healthy with 9 wins and a 3.30 ERA. He throws strikes and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. The Twins are strong defensively, a plus for a guy like Pavano who puts the ball in play and doesn’t walk anyone, and he has a sizzling 1.11 ERA his last three starts. Toronto is in a slump and starter Jesse Litsch is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +1.76 over DETROIT
There are a few things to note here with the first being the O’s offense, which has suddenly started to string together some solid numbers. In fact, the O’s have scored 30 runs over its last six games and in three of those they scored six or more. They really have a good shot at putting up a few more here against Armando Gallaraga. There is no loyalty in wagering. Just four weeks after hurling the "perfect" game, Galarraga resides near the top of my fade list. How does this happen to a hurler with a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP? Well, a 4.68 xERA and a very low strikeout total reveal the true pitcher here. A 21% hit rate and 79% strand-rate disguise Galarraga's actual skill level. Gallaraga is just not that good and even against the O’s he’s way overpriced. Jake Arietta does not have good numbers and one has to be concerned about his walk/strikeout ratio, which is a horrible 16BB/13 K’s in 26 IP. However, he’s performing better with each starts and in two road starts his BAA is just .216. He’s had three very decent starts in five tries and that includes his season debut against the Yanks. Arrieta has a pretty good shot at success at this pitcher-friendly venue and thus, with a big take-back like this, the risk on the O’s is worth the reward. Play: Baltimore +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.28 over MILWAUKEE
Madison Bumgarner has made just two starts in the majors and we can see why he’s considered a top prospect. Overall, Bumgarner fared well in his first start against the Red Sox, as he gave up four earned runs in seven IP, allowing five hits, one walk, two HR and striking out five. The good news is that he gave up all four runs in the first two innings, and then settled down and did not allow another run. In his next start, in Colorado, another tough game, he went seven innings, allowing nine hits and just three earned runs and once again he walked just one and struck out five. So, in two starts, covering 14 frames against two tough opponents, Bumgarner has 10 K’s and he issued just two walks. He was 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in his last 10 minor league starts prior to the recall amd now he’ll face a Brewers team that is very beatable and you can double that with Randy Wolf throwing. Wolf does not have many strong performances this year. He’s coming off a strong start against the Cards but who isn’t coming off a strong start against them? Fact is, Wolf has a 5.25 ERA at home to go along with a BAA of .297. Wolf posted a 3.34 ERA this April but things fell apart in May, however, as his ERA was 5.50, and he walked more batters than he struck out. If that’s not enough reason for worry, check out Wolf’s recent K/9 trend. 2007: 8.2, 2008: 7.7, 2009: 6.7, 2010: 5.9. Unless that trend reverses, expect to see more months like May in his future. The Giants have woken up with two wins in three games and over that stretch they’ve scored 20 runs, a trend that can certainly continue here. Play: San Francisco +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +2.06 over TEXAS
The Indians may not win here but they’re absolutely worth a wager against C. J. Wilson, a guy who might be very vulnerable to getting whacked. You see, Wilson has already surpassed his season high in IP, as it was previously 74 and now he’s logged 106 innings and we’re just into July. He’s a reliever turned starter and all the signs are there that fatigue is setting in. For one, he’s walked 17 and struck out 17 over his last four starts. Also note that he faced the Astros twice and Mariners once in three of his last five starts, so he’s been able to avoid being exposed. While it's been a good ride so far and Wilson has demonstrated a solid skills foundation, he has now entered uncharted IP territory and will very likely pay the big price very soon. Committing to this guy at this price could be a huge mistake. Furthermore, Justin Masterson is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Masterson has an elite groundball % of 64%. He threw a two-hitter vs the Red Sox on June 2 and he’s coming off a gem against the Blue Jays. Masterson’s confidence is much stronger these days and it’s also worth noting that he catches the Rangers at precisely the right time. After a stretch in which they were hitting everything and everybody, the Rangers have slowed way down. In fact, over its last six games the Rangers are batting a combined .216, which is dead last in the AL and overall, only the Cubbies and Astros have been worse over that stretch. The Indians won and scored nine times last night and there’s no reason they can’t win again tonight. Definite overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Astros -145
The Astros are a perfect 5-0 in Rodriguez's last 5 home starts vs. the Pirates, and this really shouldn't come as much of a surprise when you consider that the Bucs are only 13-40 in their last 53 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Pirates are 17-61 in their last 78 road games and just 23-58 in their last 81 meetings in Houston. Take the Astros at home tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Padres/Nationals UNDER 7.5
This game has the makings of a pitcher's duel tonight in Washington. Clayton Richard and Livan Hernandez each spot sub-3.00 ERA's. Richard is 6-4 with a 2.74 ERA this season, and 3-1 with a 2.29 ERA on the road. The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Richard's 6 road starts this year. Hernandez is also 6-4 with a 2.98 ERA this season, and 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA at home. The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Hernandez's 16 starts this year, including a perfect 8-0-1 UNDER in his 9 home starts. Take the UNDER 7.5 runs here
Cajun Sports
LAA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: LAA Angels
We won with the White Sox on Monday night as they defeated the Angels 9 to 2 but we are turning the tables tonight and backing LA with Weaver on the bump. Jered Weaver is 4-0 with an 0.52 ERA in five career starts against Chicago and has given up just one run over 19 2-3 innings winning all three outings at U.S. Cellular Field. The Angels are 139-83 after allowing 6+ runs for a profit of $4550. The White Sox are 5-14 at home after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a profit of $1240 when playing against them. We will back the visitor here as the Angels grab a victory on Tuesday night in Chicago.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* LA Angels 4 Chicago White Sox 2
TEDDY COVERS
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Kansas City Royals
All of a sudden, the Kansas City Royals are starting to play some pretty good baseball. Since reaching their low point of 14 games under .500 two weeks ago, the Royals have won eight of their last eleven behind a combination of solid pitching and timely hitting. KC took two out of three in LA against the Angels to open up their road trip, then rallied to win again in extra innings here in Seattle last night. KC has legitimate momentum right now, giving us a prime opportunity to cash supporting them here.
Zack Grienke is clearly back in the Cy Young form he showed last year. He’s got a 26-2 strikeout to walk ratio in his last four starts. Grienke has a 1.86 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners. He threw seven innings of shutout ball against Seattle in his lone previous outing against them this year, and threw a complete game one hit shutout against the Mariners on his last visit to Safeco Field.
Seattle is 3-11 in Ryan Rowland Smith’s 14 previous starts this season. He’s allowed more walks than strikeouts this year, and his 16 home runs allowed in 73 innings of work is as bad as it gets at the major league level. This is probably his last start, with Erik Bedard slated to re-join the rotation this week, and the struggling bullpen behind him got lit up once again last night, blowing the save and taking the loss. We’ve got a very reasonable price to support the better, hotter team with a complete pitching mismatch. 2* Take Kansas City.
Dan Bebe
OAK (+139) vs NYY
Someone's got a case of Sabathiitis.
Any time C.C. comes home to the East Bay, it's generally a decent idea to fade him. His lifetime mark in Oakland is abysmal, and far and away the stadium where C.C. pitches the worst is this one in Oakland.
He is 5-8 lifetime against the A's with a 5.63 ERA. That's pretty bad, but we can have a little more fun. That is in 19 career starts against the Athletics, where he's gone 115 innings, striking out 89, walking 49, and posting a WHIP of 1.51.
At Oakland Coliseum, C.C. has made 10 starts, and he's 2-5 (so 3-3 against the A's outside of Oakland) with an ERA of 5.95, and a WHIP of 1.58. In those 10 starts, C.C. has lasted 59 innings, striking out just 37 and walking 29. If we compare his numbers against Oakland here to his numbers against Oakland elsewhere, you can see he fanned 52 batters in 56 innings outside of this ballpark, and walked just 20, and that strikeout discrepancy might very well be the difference for Sabathia. When guys put the ball in play, things happen; it's just that simple. If the A's are aggressive, get a few base hits, run the bases well, and don't strike out, C.C. will give up a couple runs.
To his credit, he did go 8 innings the last time he faced Oakland here in the Bay Area, but walked 6 batters and allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in a 4-2 Yankees loss, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see something similar develop this time around.
Trevor Cahill was selected to his first All Star team, and I believe he comes out and pitches well today. The Yankees, believe it or not, have been struggling a bit offensively outside of that huge 11-run inning, and if not for some lucky breaks, might have lost that series to Toronto. Cahill gets a ton of ground balls, and if you keep the Yankees in the yard, you've got a shot.
This is a very beefy dog price to get in such a spot, but it's also almost 20 cents lower than the line the last time C.C. pitched in Oakland, and that definitely tells us something about the money books are expecting to take on this one. The very low total is also indicative of a strong outing from, likely, both guys, and I'll take our chances on a low-scoring game at this price, considering the A's bullpen, at home, posts an ERA of just 2.96.
Play our freebie on Oakland!
Sac Lawson
CHC (-115) vs ARI
Barry Enright: Mediocre fastball at 88 MPH, an average slider, and a well-commanded Changeup. Your typical, control pitcher. He's certainly not going to over-power anybody, and that means he's probably going to have equal success against both sides of the plate. He's a guy that simply has to hit his spots to be effective, and historically, he's done that very well. However, his first start showed a lot of inconsistency in painting his corners and even more inconsistency in pitch count recognition. The reason he only gave up one run... LUCK. If this guy is off the plate as much as he was his first time out, it'll mean big trouble. Don't get me wrong, his pitch-to-contact style can be very effective against this Cubs lineup, but as a scout it's more about predicting what will happen next, and looking at his statline, the next step is a bad outing. 100+ pitches through 5 innings is a huge huge red flag.
Carlos Silva: Continuing to pitch well for the Cubs. He's had some tough luck losses lately, ones in which he simply hasn't got much run support. But the guy continues to plug away, and that 2-seam/sinker that he throws should be very effective against the right-handed power that the Dbacks exude.
Obviously, both bullpens are a bit rough, but statistically the Cubs have the edge here, even on the road. In capping this game, I was a bit conservative, and gave the edge to Arizona actually. Meaning the reason I'm playing this game is because I truly feel that Silva out-pitches Enright, and I truly feel that this 4 game skid the Dbacks are currently on will continue through the weekend. Cubs for 2 units!
COL (-135) vs STL
Jeff Francis: 7 career starts against the Cardinals, just one defeat. The guy simply has success against both righties and lefties, and is very very comfortable at Coors Field. He's coming off one of the worst starts of his career, and there's nothing better than catching a guy in a bounceback position.
Blake Hawksworth: A guy whose WHIP is through the roof, and has equal trouble against both righties and lefties. He'll have to pitch to contact to get outs. Hawksworth is not a terrible starter, but more suited for long relief in my opinion. He'll give up his fair share of hits, and the Rockies will have their opportunities to score, believe that.
The kicker: Simply cannot pass up taking a starter in a bounceback position, especially the more talented starter, when his team is 26-15 at home and their opponent is 18-22 on the road. Rockies for 1 unit!
O.C. Dooley
Orioles / Tigers Under 9.5
Both teams desperately need their starters to pile up innings tonight in order to give their exhausted bullpens a break. For some reason these two teams played a Monday “afternoon” game where the temperature reached the mid-90’s and a heat advisory was posted for the local area. That excessive heat obviously had a negative affect on both starting pitchers who failed to complete the second inning of what turned out to be a wild 12-9 slugfest. Ever since getting robbed of that infamous perfect game, Detroit’s Aramando Galarraga has posted a 6.00 ERA and also surrendered six earned runs in his most recent trip to the mound. The good news for Galarraga is that his ERA in front of the HOME fans (2.22) is drastically better than when he pitches on the road (7.78) so the mere location of tonight’s game is critical. In his initial pair of major league starts for Baltimore Jake Arrieta posted an excellent ERA (2.77) which included a triumph inside the famed Yankee Stadium. Despite recent troubles on the mound Arrieta is one of the Orioles best pitching prospects and has the ability to dominate. Turning to the database here is an eye opening 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (70-32 since 1997 with a posted total between 8’-and-10 runs) which takes road teams like Baltimore with a starter who averages “4 or less” strikeouts per assignment UNDER the total, immediately following a game where the bullpen was extended to 7+ innings of work. In his brief Tigers career Armando Galarraga is a staggering 12-1 UNDER the total when facing a poor American League opponent who has an on-base percentage of .330-or-worse