SPORTS ADVIORS
St. Louis (45-39) at Milwaukee (43-39)
The top two teams in the N.L. Central begin a three-game series at Miller Park, with the Cardinals handing the ball to Adam Wainwright (8-5, 3.32 ERA) and the Brewers countering with ace Yovani Gallardo (8-5, 2.75).
Both squads were idle Monday, and St. Louis comes in on a 4-1 roll after Sunday’s 10-1 wipeout of the Reds in Cincinnati, while the Brewers have dropped four of their last five, including Sunday’s 8-2 setback at the Cubs.
The Cardinals are on further upticks of 9-4 in divisional games, 12-5 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Tuesday, but they have lost nine of their last 12 series openers and four of five after an off day. Milwaukee is on positive stretches of 16-6 in series openers, 21-9 against N.L. Central rivals and 20-8 versus winning clubs, but it has dropped 12 of 17 against right-handed starters.
The Brewers are 4-1 against the Cardinals this season and 11-3 in the last 14 series clashes dating back to last July. However, the visitor has taken 10 of the last 12 meetings, including five of six in 2009.
Wainwright is coming off a complete-game, 2-1 home victory over the Giants, allowing the run on six hits while striking out a season-high 12. The right-hander has given up just three earned runs in his last two starts covering 16 innings (1.69 ERA), but in his last three road starts, he’s surrendered 13 runs (all earned) in 20 innings (5.85 ERA). Still, he’s 5-1 with a 4.80 ERA in seven road outings, six of which St. Louis has won.
With Wainwright pitching, the Cardinals are on tears of 36-17 overall, 7-1 on the road, 6-1 against the N.L. Central and 6-1 on Tuesday. Wainwright is also 3-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 15 career appearances (eight starts) against the Brewers, including 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts this season, giving up a single run in a 1-0 home loss on May 16 and a single run in an 8-1 road win 10 days later.
Gallardo continued his incredible season on Wednesday, holding the Mets to a run on five hits in seven innings, and like Wainwright, he whiffed a season-high 12 batters. However, the Brewers were blanked and Gallardo suffered a 1-0 loss. He’s 1-2 in his last three starts despite a 2.08 ERA, and he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts this season, including the last seven in a row, posting a 2.00 ERA during this seven-game stretch.
The Brewers are 9-4 in Gallardo’s last 13 starts overall, 5-2 in his last seven at home, 6-1 in his last seven against divisional foes and 5-0 in his last five when opening a series. Gallardo is 4-3 with a 2.47 ERA in eight home starts this year, with the lone no-decision coming in the Brewers’ 1-0 victory over St. Louis on May 25 as he allowed two hits and walked four in eight innings. Despite that strong effort, he’s 0-1 with a 5.30 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Redbirds.
Behind Wainwright, the Cardinals are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 11-1-1 on the road, 4-0 on Tuesday and 9-3-1 against the N.L. Central. Conversely, with Gallardo pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 20-8 overall, 4-1 at home and 9-4 against the N.L. Central.
As a team, Milwaukee is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 on Tuesday and 5-1 in series openers, but the under is 9-4 in the Cards’ last 13 divisional contests and 4-1 in their last five after an off day.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
Texas (45-36) at L.A. Angels (46-35)
The battle for first place in the A.L. West continues at Angels Stadium, where the hosts send John Lackey (3-3, 4.70) to the mound opposite the Rangers’ Dustin Nippert, who is making his season debut in the big leagues.
Los Angeles ran its winning streak to three in a row, snapped Texas’ five-game run in the process and took over sole possession of first place in the West with Monday’s 9-4 blowout win. The Angels are on additional surges of 10-3 overall, 6-1 at home and 13-5 versus right-handed starters.
Despite falling last night, the Rangers are still on runs of 19-8 against the A.L. West and 35-17 on Tuesday. Additionally, they still have a 5-2 edge over the Angels in the season series, though the first six contests prior to Monday were played in Texas.
Nippert hasn’t pitched for Texas this season, but he posted a 2.55 ERA in minor-league rehab assignments. The right-hander, who was on the 60-day disabled list with a shoulder injury, went 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA in 20 appearances (six starts) with the Rangers last season.
Nippert faced the Angels three times in his career – all last year – going 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA. His one start versus the Halos came in August in Anaheim, and he yielded three runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings, walking just two and striking out seven but losing, 3-1.
Lackey has regained his ace-like form over his last two outings, holding the DBacks and Orioles to a combined three runs (two earned) and nine hits over 15 innings, walking just four while striking out 16. He got a no-decision in his team’s 2-1 win at Arizona then picked up the 5-2 home victory over Baltimore on Thursday.
The Angels have lost five of Lackey’s last six home starts, where he’s 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in three contests this season. But otherwise behind the big right-hander, L.A. is on runs of 20-8 against A.L. West opponents, 8-1 on Tuesday and 16-5 in the second game of a series. However, Lackey is only 10-10 with a bloated 5.79 ERA in 28 career starts against the Rangers. He made his season debut in Texas on May 16, but got ejected after throwing just two pitches, the second of which beaned Rangers leadoff hitter Ian Kinsler.
For Texas, the “under” is on runs of 37-15-1 overall, 15-7 on the road, 23-9-1 against righty starters, 21-8-1 versus teams with a winning record and 14-3 in Game 2 of a series. Similarly, with Lackey pitching, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 4-1 at home and 5-1-1 on Tuesday. However, as a team, the Angels carry “over” trends of 5-1-1 overall, 10-4-1 at home and 10-3-1 against right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
LA Dodgers at NY Mets
The Dodgers look to take advantage of a Mets team that is just 3-13 in its last 16 games as an underdog between +110 and +150. LA is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145)
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.616; Philadelphia (Happ) 14.451
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+140); Over
Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.018; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.497
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under
Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.315; Houston (Moehler) 15.027
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Over
Game 907-908: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.788; Cubs (Dempster) 15.609
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); N/A
Game 909-910: St. Louis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.659; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.536
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+140); Over
Game 911-912: Washington at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.117; Colorado (Hammel) 16.370
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-155); Over
Game 913-914: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.359; Arizona (Davis) 15.327
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-160); Over
Game 915-916: Florida at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.689; San Francisco (Zito) 16.754
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Under
Game 917-918: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rzepczynski) 14.546; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.168
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-200); Over
Game 919-920: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 15.056; Detroit (Verlander) 14.213
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+210); Under
Game 921-922: Oakland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 14.518; Boston (Beckett) 16.370
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-240); Under
Game 923-924: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 14.699; White Sox (Buehrle) 14.491
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+160); Over
Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.022; Minnesota (Baker) 15.542
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under
Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Nippert) 15.844; LA Angels (Lackey) 17.761
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Over
Game 929-930: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.501; Seattle (Bedard) 15.300
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Under
WNBA
Washington at Minnesota
The Lynx look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games versus the Eastern Conference. Minnesota is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5)
Game 651-652: San Antonio at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 108.998; Seattle 115.024
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 6; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 6 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Connecticut at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 112.681; Atlanta 111.022
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+1 1/2); Over
Game 655-656: Washington at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 106.503; Minnesota 113.878
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5; 163
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5); Under
Game 657-658: Chicago at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 106.258; Sacramento 109.134
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 6 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2); Over
Craig Trapp
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5
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Betting Trends
-Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
-Indians are 2-8 in Sowers' last 10 starts.
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-White Sox are 6-2 in Buehrles last 8 home starts vs. Indians.
-White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
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CHW -1.5 (+125): Mark Buehrle has been one of the best pitchers in the league for years and recently he has shown why. His last three starts he is 2-0 with 1.71 ERA. The CHW have owned CLE recently sweeping them in CLE less than a month ago. This WhiteSox team has won 14 or last 20 games and many of these wins were on the road. Today for CLE Sowers will take the mound after several really poor starts. Less than a week ago he was pounded by this same CHW team. Sowers is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in six starts against the White Sox. In three outings against them this season, he's allowed 13 runs and 23 hits over 16 innings. At the plate CLE has been so up and down whereas CHW have been putting up an average of 5 runs per game in the last 15 games!! This one works out pretty easy Buehle goes 8 innings of 1 run baseball while the CHW batters take batting practice scoring at least 6 runs. SCORE CHW 6 - CLE 1
LT Profits
Minnesota Twins +125
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C.C. Sabathia has been a disappointment for the most part for the New York Yankees, while Scott Bakers has been hot of the Minnesota Twins, making the Twins the call as decided home underdogs tonight.
Sabathia is just 7-5 despite a potent Yankees offense supporting him, and while his 3.85 ERA is acceptable, the Yanks were expecting better when they shelled out millions to sign him in the off season. Speaking of shelled, that is exactly what happened to C.C. in his last start when he surrendered six earned runs on 10 hits while lasting only 5.2 innings vs. the light-hitting Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium.
He now must contend with a Minnesota offense that has surprisingly hit better vs. left-handed pitching (.281) than vs. right-handed pitching (.266) this season. This difference has been even more pronounced at home (.299 vs. LHP, .276 vs. RHP), where the Twins are averaging a very good 5.45 runs per game.
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Granted, Baker still sits with a modest 6-6 record and a less than mediocre 4.99 ERA for the season, but that does not give an indication of just how good he has been lately. Baker has now allowed three runs or less in six straight starts and in seven of his last eight outings. Besides, as bad as his record and ERA look, he does have an excellent overall WHIP of 1.14 on the whole year, suggesting that he has been pitching in tough luck.
Finally, Baker allowed exactly one run in each of his two career starts against the Yankees while allowing a grand total of just five hits in 12 innings, and a similar effort should be good enough to top Sabathia at a nice price at home tonight.
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Pick: Twins +125
Tommy Gill
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Brewers and Cardinals Under 8 3 units
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I believe we are getting some good value in the under today with 2 quality pitchers that have fared well their last few games against the opposing team. Wainwright (8-5 3.32 ERA) vs. Gallardo (8-5 2.75 ERA) will be taking the hill today and both pitchers are pitching lights out recently. Wainwright has had 7 out of 10 quality starts giving up 3 ER or less in that span while Gallardo has had 9 out of 10 quality starts giving up 3 ER or less. In Gallardo only game against the Cards this season he gave up 2 hits and 0 runs in 8 innings looking un hittable in that game. Wainwright has faced the Brewers 2 times giving up 2 runs in 15 innings pitched. With both pitchers being on fire as of late I see a lot of value in this play tonight with two teams that have problems scoring runs and rely to heavy on their big hitters to get these runs with both teams going 5-1 in both pitchers last 3 to the under I see this as a great spot for a classic low scoring NL game with runs having to be manufactured against two pitchers that average against under 4 runs a game this year.
Marc Lawrence
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Play On: Cincinnati w/Harang
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Aaron Harang and the Reds find themselves in a serious bounce back mode tonight following last night's 22-1 pasting here against the Phillies last night. Harang enters tonight's fray in great KW form with 4 walks and 21 strikeouts in his last four starts. He's also 3-1 in his last four team starts against the Phils. With that look for Harang to improve to 10-3 in his last thirteen team starts in July here tonight.
Brad Diamnd Sports
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Play: Boston (Beckett) -1 1/2 Runs over Oakland
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Off a loss in game one of the series, favor the Sox to dine on Oakland pitching this evening. Boston hurler has been super this season with a 9-3 mark and a consistent 3.67 ERA. Opposing lefty Eveland of Oakland has a 18+ ERA in two starts versus Boston.
John Martin
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -150
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The Phillies are finally getting their bats going after scoring 22 runs in a 22-1 victory over the Reds yesterday. Philly is 4-0 in their last 4 games, outscoring their opponents 35-4 during this ridiculous stretch. Now they throw their most consistent starter this season in J.A. Happ to make it 5 straight victories. Happ is 5-0 with a 2.96 ERA this season, including 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. Aaron Harang has been touched up on the road this season, going 1-5 with a 4.94 ERA away from home. Harang owns a 5.55 ERA in 8 career starts against Cincinnati, while Happ has never faced the Reds which really gives him an advantage tonight. The Reds are 1-10 in Harang’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 45-17 in their last 62 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Cash in with the Phillies as the favorite.
Info Plays
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3* on Colorado Rockies -155
Reasons why the Rockies win:
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1.) Colorado is 23-7 in their last 30 games overall. They should be nearly a -200 favorite tonight, but we’ll gladly take this discounted price as Tuesday’s free play. The Nationals are 9-46 in their last 55 road games against a right-handed starter and 10-43 in their last 53 road games against a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 2-7 in Zimmerman’s last 9 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts overall. The Rockies are 7-1 in Hammel’s last 8 starts overall.
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2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (WASHINGTON) - allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 103-33 ML System hitting 75.7% over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Rockies at home.
Black Widow
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1* on New York Mets +127
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The Mets are getting a great price at home here tonight against the L.A. Dodgers. You’ll rarely find New York playing in the role of the home dog, but when you do it’s certainly worth a look. The Mets are 21-10 (+10.4 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. New York tends to play well against the best starters in the league as well. The Mets are 57-26 (+31.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 3 seasons. The Mets are 6-1 in Pelfrey’s last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Also, New York plays well following an off day as they tend to use their rest wisely. New York is 59-28 in their last 87 games following an off day. Mike Pelfrey has been a dependable starter with a 6-3 record and 4.21 ERA this year. Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA at home. Clayton Kershaw’s 5.54 ERA on the road this year shows that he is still a young pitcher who doesn’t handle the pressure of the road atmosphere very well just yet. Take the Mets on the Money Line.
Jr Tipps
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NY YANKEES vs. MINNESOTA
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The New York Yankees have not lost to the Minnesota Twins(43-40) this year and this will be the first time CC Sabathia will face them. Coming off just their second loss in 12 games. The Yankees starter Sabathia (7-5, 3.85 ERA) has been outstanding in recent years versus the Twins posting a 1.24 ERA in winning his last four starts and the veteran left-hander is 12-8 with a 3.12 ERA in 27 starts against Minnesota.Minnesota has won 15 of its last 23 games and start Scott Baker (6-6, 4.99) who is 4-0 with a 3.20 EERA in his last six starts. The right-hander allowed one run and five hits in five innings to earn a win in Minnesota's 2-1 victory over Kansas City on Tuesday night. Baker is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees, who are averaging 6.6 runs in their last 12 games. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez is batting .370 with 21 homers in 55 games at Minnesota has five homers in his last 11 games at the Metrodome. The Yankees are perfect against Minnesota and they always hit well in the Dome.with the New York bats averaging over 6 runs a game in their last 12, they will have no problem continueing their dominace over the Twins with CC on the mound.
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TAKE NY YANKEES-127
JIM FEIST
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES / HOUSTON ASTROS
Take PITTSBURGH PIRATES
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Pittsburgh lefty Paul Maholm throws strikes and is having a decent year, at 5-4. He says he is healthy, denying that knee and groin injuries have hampered his performance. "No, not at all," he said. "I'm perfectly fine to pitch." The team is 3-3 his last 6 starts, yet he is a dog here. Houston starts Brian Moehler is getting hit at a .304 clip and has a 5.66 ERA against the Pirates. Can't back the home favorite here. Play the Pirates.
DAVE COKIN
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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
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Big series opening tonight between the Cardinals and Brewers. Yovanni Gallardo is pitching great ball for Milwaukee, but Adam Wainwright has been solid as well for the Cardinals. The Brewers have not been especially dominant at home this season, while the Redbirds sport a winning road record. Tough game for sure, but I see some value at the price with the road underdog Cardinals.
The Sports Investing Professional
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Detroit Tigers 1H -210
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This one is tough because the lay is so heavy. Of all the games and totals I look at I think the biggest mismatch is Verlander vs Chen.Question for me is to play the whole game or just the first 5. If you've watched the Tigers lately, you know that they can't seem to get anyone out from their pen and so I really don't want any part of that. I see the Tigers bouncing out to the early lead and then after the 5th I don't care what happens. Let's take the bullpen out, play ONLY THE FIRST 5, and gut it up to make the lay.
Hentai Sports
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Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Prediction : Chicago White Sox -1.5
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Mark Buehrle has been one of the best pitchers in the league for years and recently he has shown why. His last three starts he is 2-0 with 1.71 ERA. The CHW have owned CLE recently sweeping them in CLE less than a month ago. This WhiteSox team has won 14 or last 20 games and many of these wins were on the road. Today for CLE Sowers will take the mound after several really poor starts. Less than a week ago he was pounded by this same CHW team. Sowers is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in six starts against the White Sox. In three outings against them this season, he’s allowed 13 runs and 23 hits over 16 innings. At the plate CLE has been so up and down whereas CHW have been putting up an average of 5 runs per game in the last 15 games.