Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta at CHICAGO CUBS -110
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I've hit two of my last three FREE selections and I've got a winner here for you as I'm playing the Cubs at Wrigley to easily take care of the Braves.
The Cubs are playing well right now, especially at Wrigley where they have won eight of their last nine home games. I'm going to ride the hot hand and play them and starter Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09 ERA) tonight.
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Chicago has won eight of the last 10 against the Braves and took Monday's game 4-2.
Dempster is 4-1 at Wrigley this season and he gave up three earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 9-5 win on Thursday against the Brewers. He faced these Braves on June 22 and pitched well, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings but his offense gave him nothing in the 2-0 loss. Last year he threw a complete-game against these Braves at Wrigley, giving up two runs on four hits in a 7-2 victory.
Javier Vazquez (5-7, 3.05) is on the hill for the Braves and they are just 2-6 in his last eight starts. the Braves are just 2-6 as a road 'dog, 1-5 on the road and 1-6 agaisnt right-handed starters on the road.
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Meanwhile the Cubs are 75-36 as a home favorite and 49-17 at home against teams with losing records. And they are 22-7 when Dempster pitches at Wrigley and 20-7 when he's a home chalk. This one is perfect for Chicago. Play the Cubs.
4♦ CHICAGO CUBS
Dominic Fazzini
Florida -125 at SAN FRANCISCO
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Barry Zito (4-8, 4.82 ERA) is 3-0 in four career starts against the Marlins, but he has struggled in his last four starts overall, going 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA.
And Florida has ripped apart southpaws this season, at 20-10.
Right-hander Josh Johnson (7-1, 2.76) has become the ace of the Marlins, with 14 quality starts in 17 outings this season.
He struggled in his last start, however, allowing one run on five hits and four walks in 3 1/3 innings Wednesday against Washington. Despite only giving up one run, he was pulled after 89 pitches because of his ineffectiveness.
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What that tells me is that, even when Johnson is off, he’s still able to minimize any potential damage. He has a 2.70 ERA in three starts against the Giants, but has never beaten them.
I think that is going to change today as I’m looking for Johnson for have a solid outing after being named to the National League All-Star team Sunday. Go with the Marlins.
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3♦ FLORIDA
Jeff Benton
Texas +155 at L.A. ANGELS
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I always say, if I have to lose a play, I might as well get crushed, and boy did I with Monday’s free play on the Reds, who lost 22-1 at Philadelphia. I’ll get back on track Tuesday by backing the Rangers plus the big money in Southern California.
Obviously, the Angels have the perceived pitching advantage tonight with veteran John Lackey going up against youngster Dustin Nippert, who is making his first big-league start of the season after missing the first 3½ months with a shoulder injury. However, I’m not so certain the advantage is as great as the oddsmakers would have you believe.
First off, while Lackey has been dynamite in his last two starts, he has hardly been a picture of consistency this season, going 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA overall and 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA at home. In fact, the Angels have split his 10 starts this season, and going back to last year, they’ve lost five of his last six outings in Anaheim.
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Also, Lackey hasn’t exactly enjoyed facing the Rangers in his career, going 10-10 with a 5.79 ERA in 28 career starts. In fact, the last time he faced Texas at home was on Sept. 26 last year, and the Rangers clobbered him for 10 runs in just 2 2/3 innings en route to a 12-2 victory, improving to 4-2 the last six times they’ve faced Lackey.
As for Nippert, he was strong in his minor-league rehab assignments with a 2.55 ERA, and he pitched very well in a 3-1 loss in Anaheim last August, allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-1 defeat.
Bottom line: Even though the Angels took last night’s series opener 9-4, they’re still just one game better than Texas in the standings and the Rangers are still 5-2 against the Halos this year. To get this kind of a plus price back with a quality team like Texas is well worth the shot.
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3♦ TEXAS
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the Indians at US Cellular.
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Jeremy Sowers is not good right now with his 2-6 record and the Indians overall are extremely underachieving but at this price with at least the potential that the Tribe have in Sizemore, Martinez, Choo and Hafner I'll take my chances with these visitors in revenge. I can't fully make this a pay play because Cleveland is certainly not a team that I really want to back as they are still mush.
Just last week the White Sox went to Jacobs Field and embarassed Eric Wedge' club in the easy three game sweep. Certainly things will not get easier here in Chicago as Mark Buehrle has been really good and the "good guys"as a whole have stepped things up a ton of late but with that said I still do not believe Ozzie Guillen's club is ready to be laying a price such as this.
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I can easily see the South Siders regress a bit and come back down to Earth. The Indians have been miserable but if you're telling me that this team can't bust out at anytime than you're crazy. There are weapons on this club, no matter how underachieving those weapons may be, it's still a bit tough to pass up this price in this semi rivalry.
Revenge plus some talent at this price is a must play on the Indians, period!
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1♦ Indians
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
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We came through with a solid win yesterday as the Phillies take care of business and deliver for us. We’re making it 2 in a row tonight as we’re headed out West where we’re taking the Mariners at home against the visiting Orioles.
So far this season the Mariners and Orioles have met 6 times, with Seattle taking 4 of the last 5 meetings, including each of the last two matchups.
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Overall, the Mariners come into this game having taken 3 of their last 4 games, while the Orioles are just 1-4 their last 5 and are just 2-6 their last 8 games.
On the road, Baltimore has lost 6 of its last 7, while the Mariners are 9-2 their last 11 games at home.
Seattle will come through once again at home as the Orioles continue their road woes. Take the Mariners at home in this one tonight.
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3♦ MARINERS
BIG AL
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Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
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At 8:40 pm our complimentary selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Washington Nationals. One of the true tests for any young starter who has shown promise is how he performs when he gets his first career start at Coors Field against the Rockies. Such is the case this evening for young Nationals righthander Jordan Zimmerman, who has shown so much promise in his rookie season for the worst team in baseball. Long known as the most hitter-friendly park in the Majors, Coors Field has dashed many hopes of young pitchers in the past. Zimmerman has been extremely impressive in his last several appearances in every category except the one that no doubt matters most -- Wins. In five starts since the beginning of June, Zimmerman sports a 2.12 ERA but only has a single win to show for it. Not only does Zimmerman have to deal with Coors Field for the first time in his career, but he also has to face a team that has been winning a lot of games lately and another young starter in Jason Hammel who also has been pitching extremely well. Like Zimmerman, Hammel has excelled since the beginning of June (six starts), but unlike Zimmerman, Hammel has four wins in this stretch. And three of those have been at Coors Field. Take the Rockies.
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Play on: Colorado
Triple Threat Sports!
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Play OVER in the White Sox/Indians game.
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Tribe is 12-5 to the Over against southpaw starters this season, Sowers has an 8.81 ERA in three road starts this season, and just allowed 11 hits in six innings against the White Sox in his last outing. That struggle is nothing new for him, as he has a 7.72 career ERA against the Pale Hose. Chicago ace Beurhle not exactly stellar against the Indians in his career either, posting a 4.86 ERA in 33 starts. The OVER is the way to go here.
Matt Fargo
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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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Can a team recover from a 21-run loss right away? I believe it can. Cincinnati was bombarded last night by the Phillies and that does two things for us. It gives us enormous line value for tonight?s game as well as putting the public squarely behind Philadelphia. Despite winning four straight games, the Phillies are still five games under .500 at home and the Reds actually have a better road record than that. Cincinnati is 5-4 in its last nine games and it brings in a 9-3 record in its last 12 road games against teams with a losing home record. The Phillies meanwhile are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. Despite not picking up wins, Aaron Harang is having a pretty solid season. He has a 3.86 ERA on the year and after a rough May, he has posted a 3.22 ERA over his last six outings. Over the last two seasons, he has had excellent success against the Phillies, putting up a 2.70 ERA covering three starts, all of which were quality performances. He squares off against J.A. Happ who has yet to lose this season. He posted a 2.49 ERA as a relief pitcher and since entering the starting rotation, he has a 3.15 ERA covering either starts. The Phillies are just 4-4 in those games however and in three home starts, Happ has a 5.29 ERA. The Reds are hitting .281 over their last 10 games against left-handed pitching. Cincinnati falls into a solid contrarian underdog situation as well. Play against National League home favorites of less than -150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season in July games. This situation is 61-39 (61 percent) over the last five seasons and it has picked up close to 34 units thanks to the underdog numbers involved.
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3* Cincinnati Reds
Tom Freese
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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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Cincinnati is 35-16 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 9-3 their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Reds are 4-1 off a loss and they are 4-1 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game. Off a deflating 22-1 loss last night we expect the Reds to play well tonight. Philadelphia is 3-8 their last 11 games vs. righty starters and they are 3-7 their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 2-5 in the last 7 starts made by Aaron Harang against them. The righthander has allowed 3 or less runs in 12 of his 17 starts this year. PLAY ON CINCINNATI w/Harang
Jimmy The Moose
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Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
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The Braves have lost 5 of their last 6 road games. In their last 6 following a loss they are 1-5. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 7 as a dog. The Braves have lost 6 of Vazquez's last 8 starts. Chicago comes into this one having won 5 of their last 6 overall. The Cubs have won 8 of their last 9 home games. They are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. NL East opponents. Chicago is 22-7 in Dempster's last 29 home starts. The Cubs have won 8 of the last 10 meetings. The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 trips to Chicago. Play on the Chicago Cubs -.
IndianCowboy
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Take the Under between the NY Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
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The NY Yankees are 48-34 and yet they are still looking ahead to Boston as they look to take over the division lead prior to the All Star Break. The Yankees have won 8 of 10 games and they come off a 6-7 loss to the Jays at home as they were attempting to sweep them. CC comes off a non-quality start where he was roughed up for 6 runs in less than 6 innings as he lost to Seattle 4-8. Note, that he lost as a -315 favorite. He looks to bounce-back today against the Twins no the road and given that CC is 3-0 over his last 4 road starts and he as well as the Yankees are on a bounce-back, he should have a strong outing today. After struggling early, Baker has put together 6 straight quality starts and is 4-0 over his last 6 starts. He is part of the reason why the Twins are 3 games above .500 as they put together a run to topple the Tigers who are just in front of them. I look for both pitchers to have a strong outing today as the Under 8-1 for the Yankees when the total is set at this range and the Under is 4-0 when Baker starts at home as an Underdog.
John Ryan
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds as the face the Phillies set to start at 7:05 EST. Phils have played well of late, but are in a series of poor roles for this game. We had them as a 3* winner yesterday as they won in a franchise record breaking fashion 22-1. Now, the tables will be turned and the Reds will prove that all a 22-1 loss is is just that – one loss. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 61-40 mark for 32.6 units won since 2003. Play against home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season in July games. Reds are 14-7 (+8.7 Units) against the money line versus poor fielding teams turning 0.8 or less DP's/game this season. Reds are a perfect 9-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight losses where opposition scored 8 or more runs over the last 2 seasons.
Alex Smart
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Milwaukee Brewers -137
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Adam Wainwright (8-5, 3.32 ERA) the Cardinals starting pitcher tonight has been a workhorse for his team so far this season, but I can see him faltering very soon. Last time out he threw a season-high 122 pitches in a game his team eventually won in extra innings. That exhausting effort and the fact he has thrown at least 110 pitches in seven starts this year tells me a story of pitcher on the verge of imminent collapse and dead arm syndrome (in the short term). Meanwhile, Yovani Gollardo (8-5, 2.75 ERA)is another top tier hurler, that is off an impressive appearance , allowing only one run in seven quality innings while garnering a career high 12 strikeouts. Gollardo pitched eight lights out innings on May 25 here in Miller Park vs the Cards allowing no runs on just two hits, despite of getting a no decision. Tonight I am expecting a similar effort from the right hander, but this time I am betting on him to record the victory for his team. Final notes & Key Trends: Brewers are 5-0 in Gallardos last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 3-9 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series. The Brewers have won 11 of the L/14 meetings in this series. ...... The Milwaukee Brewers
MTi Sports
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Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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The Cubs are 0-9 when Ryan Dempster starts after a quality start and the Braves are 9-1 vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Atlanta is the most profitable team in the league when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led, going 50-23 as a 104 DOG on the average, making 32.65 units. The Phillies are a distant second at 39-23, making 17.65 units. Consider playing Atlanta.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -1.5 +100
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The Tigers have dropped 3 in a row after giving away a lead to KC in the 8th last night. I expect them to be focused and ready to get back in the win column behind their ace tonight. Verlander has been sensational at home this season, going 4-0 with an ERA of just 1.11. Verlander is also a ridiculous 8-1 lifetime when starting against KC with an ERA of 2.21 and a WHIP of 1.086. I expect the bats to back Verlander up as well, as Royals lefty Bruce Chen hasn't won a start since Oct. 2, 2005. Plus, the Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take Detroit on the run line.