VEGAS EXPERTS
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies hammered the Cincinnati Reds last night 22-1 to open their three-game series last night. The Reds have lost their last two games by a combined score of 32-2 and it can only go up from here. Cincinnati is 9-0 over the past two seasons after losing back-to-back games with the opponent scoring eight or more runs. Not to mention they are 10-1 when coming off a loss by six or more runs. Go with the Reds
Play on: Cincinnati
Karl Garrett
Oakland at BOSTON
Now on a 6-2 comp play run thanks to a Monday winner on the Angels!
For Tuesday, G-Man on the Red Sox on the RUN LINE to dispose of the Athletics.
Boston was blanked 6-0 last night, but Red Sox starter John Smoltz is a former shell of his self, and tonight's hurler Josh Beckett is going to present Oakland with plenty of trouble.
Beckett is 4-0 with a 2.87 ERA at Fenway Park this season, and I fully expect him to be through 7 or 8 frames without allowing more than 1 run to score.
Boston is not likely to get shut down again tonight against Dana Eveland, as the Sox are still 26-12 at home this year, and they are 6-2 at home the last 8 times they have faced Oakland.
Go with Boston on the RUN LINE tonight, as they reverse the score from last night, and take this one by a 7-2 margin.
4♦ BOSTON -1 1/2 RUNS
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at MINNESOTA
Despite CC Sabathia's recent numbers against Minnesota - 4-1 last 5 starts, 5 runs allowed in 37 innings of work! - we will be playing tonight's Yankees-Twins game to go OVER the posted total.
New York just went OVER the posted price in yesterday's 7-6 loss to Toronto, as they have now gone OVER in their last pair of games, and 3 of their last 5 overall.
Minnesota's Baker sports a season ERA of 4.99, so there is a strong chance the cranking of late Yankees bats will inflict more damage on Baker and his mates tonight.
Last season, 4 of the 7 meetings between these teams at the Metrodome went OVER the posted total, and we like tonight's meeting to sail HIGH as well.
Play on the OVER in tonight's New York-Minnesota meeting.
3♦ OVER
Wunderdog
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Baltimore at Seattle
Pick: Seattle -140
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Sometimes when you look over a game, you try to seek out and play against a team that is in their worst possible position to win. The Orioles fit that description tonight. They have played well at home, but on the road this young team has a tremendous drop-off offensively. The O's plate over five runs per game at home, but the road tally is just 3.8 and they are off a whitewash last night, which is their second problem. They are at their worst against left-hand pitching. The O's are scoring 5.3 against right handers, but just 3.8 against lefties, and face one of the top lefties in the game in Eric Bedard tonight. Bedard is 39-22 over the last four years, so I'm going with the Mariners in this one.
The Spread
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, 8:05PM ET
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Chi Cubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants, 10:10PM ET
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Florida is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Florida
Pick: Florida
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40PM ET
San Diego is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Diego
Arizona is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
Pick: San Diego
Frank Jordan
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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This is a great pitching match up between a pair of 8-5 pitchers with good era's. Right now these two teams are even in the loss column and St. Louis has two more wins so the Cards are in first place. Look for each starter to go 7 or more innings and the bullpens to be solid with St. Louis coming out ahead in the end 4-2 as Pujols has a better day at the plate then Fielder. Play St. Louis
Stephen Nover
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Under 9
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Look for CC Sabathia to bounce back from a rare poor performance. He's not pitching at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Sabathia has a 3.12 ERA in 27 starts pitching at the Metrodome. He has a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts versus the Twins.
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Prior to his 8-4 loss to Seattle last Thursday, Sabathia was in a nice groove going 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his last previous 10 outings.
This will be just the fourth time in 18 games the Twins will face a lefty.
After a bumpy start, Scott Baker has come on to go 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in his last six starts for Minnesota. Baker is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees.
Both team's ace closers, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, are rested.
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The under has cashed in eight of Minnestoa's last nine games. The Yankees are 9-4-1 to the under in their last 14 road contests.
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This is a one-unit play for me.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -137
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Seattle blanked Baltimore last night and the M's get the call at home again tonight. Home field has treated the Mariners well of late as they are 8-1 in their last 9 home games. They are also 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite. The M's send Bedard to the hill, who is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.00 over his last 3 starts, and the Mariners are 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles have dropped 5 of the last 6 in this head to head series and I'll fade them tonight.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
289 - 191 run 60 % 37-20 run here
TUES MINN TWINS
8)
GREG SHAKER
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Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants
Play: Under 8
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The GIANT Pitcher is damn good. No, not Zito, the 6 foot 7 inch Guy named Josh Johnson. He has been one of the most consistant throwers in the Bigs this year but he is coming off his worst performance in a long time. That does two things for us here. He only threw 89 pitches in the last game verses Washington in only 3.1 innings, somehow only game up one run and he is not happy about it. The effort wasn't indicative of the big right-hander's season. Johnson, 7-1, 2.76 ERA has turned in 14 quality starts in 17 outings, holding opponents to a .228 average. He has not allowed more than 3 runs over the last 10 games. He has a lifetime ERA verses these Giants of 2.70. He is a GIANT! The Term "Focus" comes to mind for this one as he will more than likely bounceback quick and he will be well rested to do so. While Zito has not been the toast of the town he has been pretty good at this park and he has been damn good verses these Marlins. His Home pitched games are 5-2-1 UNDER and his last 3 verses the Marlins have resulted in a 3-0 Record and ERA of 0.98. Florida has played more than their share of Overs this year but low and behold, the last 22 times they have faced a lefty away from home they are 16-5-1 UNDER. BINGO!! They do not hit Southpaws well, and they especially do not when they eat strange food. There is some strange food in San Fran, I can attest to that. I don't know if the Bullpens will be needed very much tonight, but if they are used, both come in performing very well lately and the likelihood of that continuing is good. Let's play this Nice-A-Roni San Francisco Treat tonight.
GoodFella
NY Yankees @ Minnesota
Play: UNDER 9
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I look for a CC bounce back start tonight
Baker has been LIGHTS out his last few starts vs New York....Baker is 2-0 when starting against NY Yankees with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.750
Both Bullpens are more than capable of holding down the opponent tonight, as I am expecting the starters to pitch well tonight & both Nathan & Mariano are rested
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Several KEY Twins players have struggled big time vs CC in their career
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Having this UNDER at a VERY KEY # of 9 here, makes me like this play & I see value with going UNDER that KEY # tonight
BEN BURNS
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San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Over 9
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With this evening's over/under line having fallen from 9.5 to nine, I feel we're getting some value with the 'over.'
The Diamondbacks have seen the 'over' go a lucrative 28-15-1 at home this season. That includes a 19-7-1 mark when playing a home game with a total of nine or 9.5 and a 9-1 record when favored at home in the -125 to -150 range.
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The Padres have been a profitable 'under' team at home over the years. However, the opposite has been true when they've played away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Looking back more than a decade, we find the OVER at a profitable 539-432-52. That includes a 22-16-1 record this season, including a 9-3-1 mark when the total has been either nine or 9.5.
Davis has admittedly been tough of late and is having a strong season. This is the third time the Padres have seen him this season though and his lone home start against them this season produced 16 combined runs.
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Correia has seen four of his six starts against Arizona finish above the number, including both this season. They each finished with double-digits in combined runs. Last time out, Correia was rocked for six runs in five innings.
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The Padres bullpen has a poor 5.38 ERA and an ugly 1.705 WHIP on the road. Arizona's bullpen hasn't been much better here in the desert, as the Diamondback relievers have a combined 5.05 ERA at home. Consider the Over.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -138
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Washington is just 9-30 on the road this season and 9-46 in its last 55 road games vs. a right-handed starter. I don't see the Nats beating the righty that Colorado is putting on the hill tonight as the Rockies are 7-1 in Hammel's last 8 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 0-4 in Zimmermann's last 4 road starts and 0-4 in their last 4 meetings with the Rockies. Cash in with Colorado.
WHO2BETON
Yankees vs Twins
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While C.C. Sabathia has had some nice moments in his first year with the New York Yankees, he has generally been a disappointment overall, and we look for the Minnesota Twins to score enough runs off of him tonight for this game to sneak Over this total.
Sabathia is just 7-5 despite a potent Yankees offense supporting him, and while his 3.85 ERA is acceptable, the Yanks were expecting better when they shelled out millions to sign him in the off season. Speaking of shelled, that is exactly what happened to C.C. in his last start when he surrendered six earned runs on 10 hits while lasting only 5.2 innings vs. the light-hitting Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium.
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He now must contend with a Minnesota offense that has surprisingly hit better vs. left-handed pitching (.281) than vs. right-handed pitching (.266) this season. This difference has been even more pronounced at home (.299 vs. LHP, .276 vs. RHP), where the Twins are averaging a very good 5.45 runs per game.
Granted, Scott Baker has been hot for Minnesota, but he is still a modest 6-6 with a less than mediocre 4.99 ERA for the season, with the Over going 9-6, 60.0 percent in his starts. It certainly does not help that he is facing a hot Bronx Bombers offense that is averaging 6.00 runs per game over the last 10 games, with a nice team batting average of .284 over this time.
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Look for the scoreboard operator to be kept busy tonight as these teams combine to reach double-digits in the Metrodome.
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Pick: Yankees/Twins Over 9
Rob Homyak
5 Units on Colorado Rockies
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Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in All games as a road underdog of +125 to +150
The record is 8 Wins and 30 Losses for the last two seasons (-19.40 units)
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (WASHINGTON) - allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 103-33 ML System hitting 75.7% over the last 5 seasons.
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Jason Marquis pitched eight scoreless innings to earn the win, as the Rockies blanked the Nationals 1-0 on Monday night.
Colorado won as -215 home favorites as the game played UNDER the 10-run total listed by sportsbooks.
Todd Helton drove in the only run of the game for the Rockies, while Clint Barmes went 2-for-4 for Colorado.
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Craig Stammen gave up one run over seven innings for Washington, as Josh Bard was 2-for-4 for the Nationals.
Colorado is 23-7 in their last 30 games overall. The Nationals are 9-46 in their last 55 road games against a right-handed starter and 10-43 in their last 53 road games against a team with a winning record. The Nationals are 2-7 in Zimmerman?s last 9 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts overall. The Rockies are 7-1 in Hammels last 8 starts overall.
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Head to Head
Nationals are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in Colorado.
Nationals are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
Umpire Trends - Randy Marsh
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Home team is 5-2 in Marshs last 7 Tuesday games behind home plate vs. Washington.
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Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 games with Marsh behind home plate.