Vernon Croy
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Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the White Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Mark Buehrle (8-2, 3.09 ERA) has pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 2.88 over 59.3 innings and the White Sox are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games when Buehrle has started in game 1 of a series. The White Sox are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games against a lefty starter and Jeremy Sowers (2-6, 5.68) has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 8.81 over 3 starts. The Indians are just 1-10 in Sowers last 11 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and they are just 0-9 in his last 9 road starts against a team with a winning record. Sowers is 0-5 in 6 career starts against the White Sox with an ERA of 7.72 and the White Sox are hitting .311 as a team over their last 7 games. Take the Chicago White Sox Tuesday night.
LARRY NESS
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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Chicago Cubs
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Derrek Lee hit a two-run HR in the first inning last night, as the Cubs beat the Braves 4-2. He's batting .333 with five HRs and 14 RBI to help the Cubs open the month of July 5-1. More good news came Chicago's way with 3B Aramis Ramirez returning from the DL. Ramirez was batting .364 with four HRs and 16 RBI before separating his left shoulder. He played for the first time since May 9 last night but went hitless in four at-bats. However, the Cubs expect he'll "round into form" and in the meantime, they'll hope that Lee will continue his outstanding play (.333 with 11 home HRs and 34 RBI over his last 33 games). Tonight's pitching matchup features Javier Vazquez and Ryan Dempster. Vazquez, who fell out of favor "big time" last year with Ozzie Guillen, has pitched very well for the Braves in 2009, but has little to show for it. He's allowed 97 hits in 112 innings (130-23 K/W ratio) and owns a 3.05 ERA but enters just 5-7 with the Braves going 7-10. Vazquez is 1-4 over his last eight starts (team is 2-6), despite a 2.68 ERA. The problem has been run support, as the Braves have averaged a miniscule 1.84 runs over his last eight outings. Getting the call for Chicago will be Ryan Dempster. After three years as Chicago's closer (85 saves from 2005-07), the Cubs put Dempster back in the rotation and he delivered by going 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA last year in 33 starts. While his ERA was pretty similar home and away, the Cubs went a dominating 16-4 in Dempster's home starts but just 6-7 in his road starts. His 2009 season has been disappointment, as he'll enter this game with a 5-5 mark and a 4.09 ERA in 17 starts (team is 6-11). He's been a "road disaster" this year, despite a lower ERA away from Wrigley (4.06) than at home (4.12). He's 1-4 in 10 road starts, with the Cubs losing NINE of those 10 starts. Here at Wrigley, he's 4-1 in seven starts (team is 5-2), which means since the beginning of last year, the Cubs are 21-6 in his home starts. My problem is that Dempster's just 2-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 15 career starts vs the Braves (teams are 6-9). I like the Cubs here but that lifetime mark "curbs my enthusiasm."
Michael Cannon
Pittsburgh at HOUSTON -120
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Take the Astros for the home win over the Pirates.
I had Houston on the run line last night as my 30 dime GOY for my paying clients and they delivered. I see no reason to step away from them as they are looking to get back to .500 for the first time since the second game of the season.
Plus the Pirates are in their annual nosedive and they won’t put up much of a fight here tonight.
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Houston is 7-3 versus Pittsburgh this year and the Bucs are just 11-24 against NL Central foes.
Brian Moehler will start tonight and the Astros have won his last four starts. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA in that span.
The Bucs will counter with Paul Maholm, who is 2-3 with a 7.76 ERA in five career outings at Minute Maid Park.
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Take the Astros as they grab the home win.
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3♦ HOUSTON
Drew Gordon
Pittsburgh at HOUSTON -120
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Now on a 22-12 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pittsburgh/Houston match-up.
Brian Moehler can be incredibly inconsistent, there's no denying that, but fact of the matter is he's "on" right now. The Astros righty is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA over his last 4 starts (all Astros wins), and let's not forget his complete game winner in Pittsburgh back on May 29th! While I can understand some bettors being hesitant to buy into Moehler's success, let me be the one to tell you... He will deliver tonight.
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Opposing Moehler is the Pirates southpaw Paul Maholm, who albeit is better than his record indicates, has been in a downward spiral since mid-June. He's 1-2 while allowing 21 runs on 38 hits over his last 21 1/3 innings (4 starts)... Ugly to say the least! Although he has some decent numbers against the Astros, his 7.76 career ERA at Minute Maid Park (5 outings) should have his backers worried.
Finally, while the Astros offense is no juggernaut, the one thing they do well is hit lefties at home. Houston averages a solid 4.8 runs per game against lefties at Minute Maid Park, batting .261 in the process (not great, but good all things considered for this Houston club). In the end, Pittsburgh is a disaster on the road, and Maholm has been a disaster for the last 3 weeks... Astros and the red-hot Moehler take care of business Tuesday night.
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Take Houston behind Moehler over Pittsburgh and Maholm in this MLB match up.
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2♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
San Diego at ARIZONA
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We scored two straight totals right here with the complimentary selections, but we'll give the over/unders a rest and look at the Diamondbacks on the Run Line tonight.
Off that comeback win last night, I expect Arizona to roll to its fourth straight win tonight in blowout fashion.
San Diego has now lost five of six and sends Kevin Correia to the hill. The right-hander gave up a season-high six runs in a loss May 26 at Chase Field, and comes in after giving up six runs in Thursday night’s 7-2 loss in Houston. Correia is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA in nine career appearances in Arizona, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Snakes send him to the showers early.
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On the flip side, we’ll be able to count on Arizona starter Doug Davis, who is 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 appearances versus San Diego, while his teams are 11-4 when he starts against the Friars.
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All Diamondbacks in this one.
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1♦ DIAMONDBACKS RUN LINE
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
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We nailed No. 2 in a row yesterday as the Mariners took care of business in easy fashion. We’re making it 3 in a row tonight as we’re taking the Cubs at home against the visiting Braves.
We gave out the Cubs as our paid Top Play yesterday and delivered. Tonight, I’m backing the Cubbies again.
The Cubs come into this game having won 5 of their last 6 overall and 8 of their last 9 at home.
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On the other side, the Braves come into this game absolutely struggling lately. Atlanta has now lost three straight games and have lost 9 of their last 12 on the road, including 5 of their last 6 away from home.
Now the Braves turn to scheduled starter Javier Vazquez, who has fared just about as well as Atlanta has lately. The Braves are just 2-6 his last 8 starts and have lost each of his last 3 starts on the road.
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Things won’t get any better for Vazquez and the Braves as the Cubs hand them another loss. Take Chicago at home in this one tonight.
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3♦ CUBS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Boston Red Sox, on the run line, over the Oakland A's.
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Did anyone happen to catch those imposters playing in Red Sox uniforms last night, because it sure wasn't Boston. How does the team with the best record in the American League get shut out at the hands of Brett Anderson? Not only were they shut out for nine innings, they were nearly held hitless (2 hits all game). That's simply not going to happen tonight as the Boston bats cannot be kept quiet back-to-back nights; it's just not possible.
Let's also remember that John Smoltz was on the hill last night and he's still trying to figure out what type of pitcher he is. Oakland got to him early and often, but tonight it's going to be a different story with Josh Beckett toeing the rubber. Beckett enters tonight's contest with a 2.87 ERA at home, a 1.11 WHIP and opponents hitting just .204 against him at Fenway.
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Oakland's Eveland has faced the Red Sox just twice in his career and his numbers are about as bad as they can get: 6.2 innings pitched, 16 hits, 14 earned runs and just four strikeouts. To put it lightly, Boston has punished Eveland and there's no reason to think that after being shut out last night the Sox won't come out firing on all cylinders tonight.
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Play the Red Sox on the run line as your complimentary play.
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5♦ BOSTON -1 1/2