Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 1,2010

Marc Lawrence

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

When Gio Gonzalez matches serves with John Lackey in Boston tonight he will do so knowing he is 3-0 in his last three team starts with a super sharp 2.34 ERA. On the flip side, Lackey has been lousy with 16 walks and 14 strikeouts in his last four starts, while compiling a 6.36 ERA in that span. Back the better arm as a value dog here tonight.

Craig Trapp

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5

Two teams headed in opposite directions. In fact ATL has now moved ahead of PHILLY and are trying to improve on 6 game winning streak. Even in the perfect game by Halladay we saw this PHI team really struggle at plate. PHI has lost 7 of last 10 and the offense has been the main culprit in this slide. With out JRole at the top of the order PHI really has struggled. Hudson will be the starter on the mound for ATL as he tries to continue his great 5-1 start with a sub 2.5 ERA. His last three starts he has been amazing going 20 innings only allowing 3 ER! Hammels goes for PHI and even though he has pitched well he has not been getting many wins due to offensive struggles. Look for ATL to stay hot as the bats of PHI are still in the cooler!

Rob Vinciletti

D-Backs vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8

Tuesday systems equal 21-0 On Tuesday the MLB free play is Over the total in the Arizona at LA. Dodgers game. Rotation numbers 963/64 at 10:10 eastern. This game has some solid pitching trends that suggest an over play. Arizona starter D. Haren has been awful of late with a 8.68 era over his past 3 starts. On the road overall he has a 5.18 era. In his 11 starts 10 of them have played over the total. Arizona has a terrible bullpen, especially on the road with a 8.73 era. The Dodgers have young pitching stud Ely making the start. While he has pitched well at home 5 of his 6 starts have gone over the total. Look for this one to play over the total tonight.

BIG AL

Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals

The Royals lost 7-1 on Memorial Day to these Angels, but I look for them to rebound Tuesday, and notch a victory, as they have a big advantage on the mound in this game. Joel Pineiro will get the ball for Anaheim, and he's been dreadful, to say the least, this year. In 10 starts, he has a 3-5 record, with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. But that's not the worst part. On the road, Pineiro's numbers spiral down to an ERA of 9.78 with a WHIP of 2.01. In contrast, Brian Bannister has a winning record at 4-3, and he's been especially tough over his last three outings, with three Wins, and a 3.72 ERA (with a 1.29 WHIP). In games against AL Central foes the past two years, Pineiro's teams are 1-8 with him on the hill, and Pineiro's teams have been on the losing side in four straight starts vs. the Royals since 2006. Take Kansas City.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Chicago Cubs

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:

Ted Lilly gets the nod for the Cubbies; Lilly is 1-4 on the year, but has a 3.63 ERA.

He threw seven solid innings on Thursday against the Dodgers and left the game tied 0-0; he allowed just three hits, had 5 K's and walked three.

Lilly has pitched very well, but has not won since April 20th.

Although the Cubs left-hander has struggled already against Pittsburgh this season (two starts with a 4.85 ERA), there is nothing I've seen from Lilly in his last few outings that makes me believe he won't be anything but quality in Tuesday's start.

In the other dugout: Jeff Karstens goes for the home side; Karstens is filling in for Charlie Morton who was just placed on the 15-day disabled list.

Karstens is known for giving up the long ball; he's 1-1 with a 4.78 ERA on the year.

Bottom line: Pittsburgh has had success against the Cubs and is coming off a 2-1 victory over Chicago on Memorial Day.

No two ways around it, Chicago has struggled at the plate and Manager Lou Piniella is frustrated; “I don’t know, I really don’t know,” Piniella said. “I’ll be honest, I wish I had some answers. You would think that sooner or later this offense would wake up and start scoring a sufficient number of runs to win baseball games.”

However, with Karstens on the mound, I believe the Cubs are going to break out of their slump tonight; although both are struggling currently, both Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are 3-for-5 off the right-hander; Ramirez also has a home-run.

This is a clear pitching mismatch; I recommend having a second look at CHICAGO in this situation.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati offense is tops in the NL in runs scored and has helped them sore to first place. They have a young ace going in this one in Johnny Cueto, who is 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA. His control is outstanding (17 walks in 61 innings) and he's fanned 54. He's beaten the Cards already this season, facing them twice with a 3.27 ERA. The value is with the first place visitors and their ace. Play the Reds.

Gill Alexander

MIN (+100) vs SEA

Blackburn has 5 consecutive quality starts, each of which has lasted at least 7IP, and he has posted a 2.65ERA over the stretch. 4 of those 5 outings were against potent offenses: Det, NYY (2x), Mil. He's coming off a 7IP, 2ER, 9H performance v NYY. Tonight, he gets to face an offense that's in a tie for the fewest HRs in the league (30) and at home (12). He has a 2.88ERA in 4 career starts v Sea. Vargas has quality outings in 7 of his 9 appearances in 2010. He's 4th in the AL w a 1.06WHIP. Opponents are hitting .207 against him and he's holding left-handed hitters to a .145BA. Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel are all lefties. However, the Twins aren't your conventional left-handed-heavy hitting club. They hit lefties at a .286 clip, .015 points better than they hit righties. Vargas has a 2.56ERA at Safeco this season. Of course, sabermetrics give us more to go on. Specifically, both Vargas and Blackburn have unimpressive xFIP stats at 4.80 and 5.00, respectively. But, we know that Blackburn's figure is skewed lower because of a poor start to the season, while Vargas has pretty much been consistent all season long. That suggests that Blackburn is really performing at a comparatively higher level these days. What then becomes particularly damning is Vargas' .238BABIP mark, the 7th lowest in MLB. That indicates that, on top of what has been previously mentioned, he has been particularly fortunate to date. As always, I love fading that pitcher profile and this type of matchup dynamic. Grab the value on the Twins.

Spartan

CWS (-119) vs TEX

The last time White Sox veteran started Mark Buehrle was on the bump it was a short day on the job as umpire Joe West gave him the thumb. West, who in my personal view needs to retire and he has been mailing it in for a few years now, tossed Buehrle in the 3rd inning over a pair of balk calls. So on the lighter side of things there can be no doubt Mark will be well rested and ready to take the hill tonight to get back to work. I also suspect he will be going to work tonight brimming with confidence as he has enjoyed success in his past when dealing against the visiting Rangers. He is 7-2, 2.55 against Texas in 11 home games facing them. Plus Texas is limping into this series having now dropped six of their last seven games. Texas starter Rich Harden has been struggling of late with his location and that typically spells doom in the bigs, he sports a lofty 9.45 era his last three starts for Texas.Price seems reasonable to me guys to back a play on Mark Buehrle and the White Sox at home tonight over Texas.

Jorge Gonzalez

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Detroit Tigers Free Pick Play Selected Point Spread: -1.5/131 The Cleveland Indians (18-31) will be going into Detroit to take on the Tigers (26-24). The Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman (2-2, 3.78) will be looking forward to taking on Jake Westbrook (2-3, 4.78 ERA) and the Indians. The Tigers have beaten the Indians. The Indians have lost 23 of their last 27 game 1 of a series. Combine that with the fact that the Tigers have won 14 of the last 18 games with the Indians. The Tigers have also won six of the last seven games that Bonderman has started against he Indians. The Tigers will be looking to take advantage of a tiger pitching staff that has an ERA of 6.79 ERA over the last 14 games. No surprise that the Cavaliers have lost 11 of those games. The offense hasn’t been much better hitting .233 over the same stretch of games. Bonderman has posted a dominating 1.33 ERA over his last five starts. Westbrook has struggled over his last two starts with an ERA of 6.79 and has struggled over his career against the Tigers with a 4-8 record and an ERA of 6.38. Take the Tigers

EZWINNERS

Boston Red Sox -150

Boston's starting pitcher John Lackey has not made the big splash like the Red Sox thought he would when Boston picked him up as their big free agent acquisition over the off season. Lackey has been inconsistent as he has posted a 5-3 record with an ERA of 4.84. Lackey had lost two of his previous three starts while posting a 7.50 ERA in those games, but got back on track with a victory Wednesday at Tampa Bay against the Rays. Lackey is a very streaky pitcher and I expect a solid outing by him today against the A's. Lackey has dominated Oakland in his career as he is 16-4 with an ERA of 2.76 in 29 career starts against the A's. Gio Gonzalez has been pitching well for Oakland, but I don't like him in this match up against a Boston team that is starting to hit. The A's are just 3-10 in their last thirteen meetings in Boston and Oakland is only 1-7 in their last eight games as a road underdog of +$150 or less. Play on Boston.

MTi Sports

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

The Twins are 1-9 as a dog after a one-run win and 1-10 when Nick Blackburn starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. Seattle is 7-0 as a home favorite when they won the last two games their starter started. Consider the Mariners.

Matt Fargo

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Minnesota Twins

This is a great price for the Twins who have now won five straight games including the series opener last night. Minnesota is now 31-20 on the season including two games over .500 on the road and the win last night got the roadtrip off to a better start than the last one where it went 2-5 against the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox. The disappointing season for the Mariners continues as they have lost three straight games following a decent 5-2 run and any sort of hope for a turn around has vanished once again. The offense has been the main cause for concern as the pitching has kept the team from being even worse off. One of those contributors has been Jason Vargas who has gotten off to a surprisingly good start. I say surprisingly because he posted a 4.91 ERA in 14 starts and nine relief appearances last season after not even pitching in the Majors in 2008. He has a 3.12 ERA through nine starts but Seattle is just 5-4 in those games due to the run support issue. After a very slow start to the season, Nick Blackburn is back to where he needs to be and that is pitching exceptional. He has tossed five straight quality starts all of which have been Minnesota wins and the Twins have won nine of his 10 outings on the season. Three of his four career starts against Seattle have been quality outings including both at Safeco Field where his ERA is 2.77 covering 13 innings. The Twins are 7-0 in Blackburn’s last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Mariners are 0-7 in Vargas’ last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Minnesota Twins

BEN BURNS

Reds @ Cardinals
PICK: Under 8

Yesterday afternoon's opener was of the high-scoring variety. Today, we've got a slightly higher O/U line to work with (8 instead of 7.5) but I expect a lower combined final score.

Cueto goes for the Reds and he's coming off the best month of his career. He's got a 0.96 ERA his last four starts and was a perfect 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five May starts overall. Opposing hitters batted a mere .182 in those games with Cueto recording 37 K's over 34 innings. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings, allowing just three hits and two walks, while delivering nine K's.

It should be noted that Cueto left that game after six innings, due to a blister on his hand. However, Dusty Baker noted: "...he'll be ready and feel 100 percent to throw all his pitches his next start."

Cueto's last two starts here at St. Louis both finished with five combined runs, most recently a 3-2 Reds' win on 4/30. Including that result, he's 3-0 with a stellar 2.39 ERA in his last five outings vs. the Cardinals.

P.J. Walters made his first start of the season last week and tossed five shutout innings. He'll have the advantage of starting against the Reds for the first time.

With yesterday's result, the Cards have now seen the 'over' go 11-10-1 when playing during the afternoon. However, the 'under' is a profitable 21-9 in their 30 games under the lights. Consider the UNDER

Mike Anthony

Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Over 10

After lasting just 2 1/3 innings and giving up seven runs against the Rangers, he allowed another four-run first inning on Wednesday against Oakland. Look for the Yankees to pound him on Tuesday night as the bigguys are starting to hit with A-Rod, Tex, GRanderson back in the lineup and and Cano swinging a hot stick

Vazquez is the only Yankees starter with a losing record, and he has allowed five earned runs or more in four of his eight starts this season. Expect a bunch of runs scored on Tuesday night and the OVER looks like a very tasty winner!