Tom Freese
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Prediction: New York Mets
Mets starter Mike Pelfrey has allowed 3 runs total in his last 3 starts. Pelfrey is 9-2 this year in his team starts. The Mets are 8-2 in the last 10 starts made by Pelfrey. New York is 10-4 in Game 2 of a series. The Mets are 8-3 their last 11 games as favorites of -110 to -150. San Diego starter Wade LeBlanc has lost his last 3 games allowing 13 runs in his last 15.2 innings of work. The Padres are 23-54 vs. an NL starter with a ERA of 3.50 or better. With LeBlanc having a tough time we will go against him tonight! PLAY NEW YORK METS
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -132
I'll take the Giants with my free selection tonight considering the dominance Zito has had against the Rockies. Zito is 5-2 (9-3 on the money line) lifetime when starting against Colorado with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.055. Zito's 2.00 career ERA against the Rockies is his best against any opponent, and he has a 1.24 ERA against them in five outings since the start of last year. The Giants are 4-0 in Zito's last 4 home starts vs. the Rockies. Meanwhile, Hammel has struggled against the Giants, and the Rockies are 0-4 in his 4 career starts against them as a result. Plus, he's 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) on the road with an ERA of 8.80 this season. The Rockies took Game 1 behind a gem by Jimenez, but the Giants have still won 8 of their last 10 home games and they are still 43-20 in their last 63 games as a home favorite. We'll take the Giants here tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +1.22 over ATLANTA
The Braves are hot while the Phillies are not. Tim Hudson is considered to be one of the premier pitchers in the league and he’s put up great numbers so far this year. In fact, Hudson comes in with a 5-1 record and a 2.24 ERA and over his last three starts, he’s 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA. Now, most will look at Hudson, they’ll look at how hot the Braves are and how cold the Phillies are and then they’ll see the Braves as a seemingly cheap –1.30 favorite and pull the trigger. It all looks good on paper, but let’s have a closer look. The Braves have been beating up on the Pirates and Marlins. They’ve faced 10 stiffs over its last 10 games that included Joe Blanton last night and prior to that it was Maholm, Burres, Duke (twice), Robertson, Ohlendorf, and Charlie Morton to name a few. Before facing a slew of stiffs they were scratching a clawing to score anything. They also faced the Brewers recently with Dave Bush and Doug Davis going and those two guys couldn’t be the 10th pitcher on 99% of the teams in this league. So, yeah, they’re scoring runs but will face a quality starter tonight in Cole Hamels. Hamels (103 BPV, 5-2-2-5-3) hasn't pitched like his vintage 2008 self, but he's not that far off, either. His ERA has dropped about 1½-runs over his last half dozen games and he’s looking sharper with each outing. He’s whiffed 63 batters in 63 IP and he doesn’t issue many walks. Cole Hamels is sharper than Hudson indeed despite the numbers that don’t reflect that. Hudson's (19 BPV, 3-3-5-3-0 PQS) 5-1 record and gaudy ERA don't reflect his skills. Even with his elite GB%, Hudson has to rely on some breaks, such as an 83% strand rate to get results. His luck will turn at some point and this is the perfect spot for that to occur. Hudson has faced the Padres in San Diego, the Giants at SBC park, the Astros, the Cards in St. Louis, the Pirates and the list goes on. The books are begging for Braves money here. You’ve been warned. Play: Philadelphia +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +1.12 over ST. LOUIS
The Cards came up big in the opener of this series but Bronson Arroyo was long overdue to get rocked and he did. Johnny Cueto (95 BPV, 4-5-5-5-5 PQS) is one of the hottest starters going in the majors. His command has been outstanding with 54 k’s and just 17 walks in 61 frames. On the road he has a BAA of just .213 and his BAA in May was .182. The Reds are scoring runs in droves these days and should be able to put up plenty against P.J. Walters. Walters is in the rotation because of an in jury to Kyle Lohse. His debut was a decent one but it came against that weak hitting group in San Diego and that works out beautifully for this one. He’s appeared in 10 games in his career with the Cards and in 25 IP he’s allowed 28 hits with six of those going yard. He has a career WHIP of 1.64 and an ERA of 6.84. That’s only a handful of games and not a true measure but in his first start of the year in San Diego he only lasted five innings and of the 22 batters he faced, 10 of them flied out. In the minors this season he had an 81% strand rate and that’s a number that won’t repeat itself at this level. So, we get a tag on one of the premier pitchers in the business with an offense that usually gives plenty of support against the most overvalued team in the majors with an unproven rookie pitcher on the hill and an offense that is feeble at best and gets way too much credit. Play: Cincinnati +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA /Milwaukee over 9 –1.16
Totals is something we try and stay away from but damn, this one looks too good to pass up on. The Brewers starter and pen here is a combination that has been disastrous all year long and there’s no reason to expect a change. Dave Bush has been batting practice all year with a BAA of .297, a WHIP of 1.68 and the following are the scores in his five road starts this year: 7-6, 8-1, 3-0 (in San Diego), 7-3 and 15-3. Bush has walked 27 batters and struck out 27 in just 51 IP and he’s also allowed eight bombs. Ricky Nolasco has never been able to get these Brewer batters out. The current Brewers hitters are batting a robust .367 off Nolasco and it’s also worth noting that Milwaukee is second in the NL in runs scored, they’re second in home runs and they’re pretty much in the top three in all major offensive categories. They lose so much because they feature the worst pitching staff in the majors. Furthermore, Nolasco has been prone to giving up the long ball this year and has already allowed nine of them. He’s also allowed 18 hits and 11 runs over his last 9.1 IP. In three games in his career against the Brew Crew, Nolasco has an ERA of 11.81 and has lasted a combined 10.1 innings in those three starts. The Brewers pen will make an appearance here for sure and that’s a horror story in itself. Play: Florida/Milwaukee over 9 (Risking 2.32 units to win 2).
TAMPA BAY –1½ over Toronto
Brian Tallet gets the start for the Jays in place of Dana Eveland, who will likely never pitch for the Jays again. Brian Tallet is not far behind him. Tallet is one of the biggest stiffs you’ll ever see. None of his pitches are strong and he serves up juicy and hittable pitches in every single sequence of pitches to a batter. He had forearm stiffness and was out for a while but he was lousy before that in three starts with an ERA of 6.11 and giving up six bombs in 17 IP. In two rehabs starts, Tallet was brutal, going 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA and surrendering 11 hits over 5.1 innings. Tallet was 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in three starts last season against Tampa Bay and the Rays had an off year last season. The Rays bats will wake up tonight. Jeff Niemann does not have to be perfect or anything close to it for this ticket to cash. Still, Niemmann is a quality starter with a ton more upside than his counterpart. Play: Tampa Bay –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
We’re backing the White Sox behind Mark Buehrle against Texas and Rich Harden. The Rangers have dropped four straight, and now face a pitcher that owns a 17-5 team start record as a favorite of -150 or less, and an even better 13-1 TSR at home when pitching on 5 or 6 days of rest. Buehrle was ejected in his last start at Cleveland after just 2 1/3 innings, and will be well rested for this game tonight. Harden’s ERA of 9.45 over his last three starts won’t cut it tonight against a focused White Sox team! Take the Sox.
Play on: Chicago White Sox
John Ryan
Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Oakland Athletics
3* graded play on Oakland as they take on Boston at Fenway set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Oakland is a solid 177-124 (+60.4 Units) against the money line in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games since 1997; 20-13 (+11.0 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons; 10-5 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 6 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Lackey is just 6-11 (-10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons; 14-20 (-18.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997. A’s starter Gonzalez has been vert good over his past 3 starts posting a 2.53 ERA and a 0.938 WHIP. He is also a perfect 3-0 and has allowed just 1 HR during those 3 starts. We strongly believe that Gonzalez will complete more innings than Lackey and should that occur the model based probabilities rise big time for an Oakland upset winner. Take the A’s.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
John Ely allowed five runs in his MLB debut in late April but since that start he has delivered excellent results to hold a spot in the Dodger rotation. Los Angeles is 4-1 in his last five starts and he has pitched at least six innings in every outing this year. Ely has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five starts and he is still yet to allow a home run this season. For a young pitcher Ely has displayed excellent command, currently featuring an over 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while opposing batters are hitting just .220 against him. Ely has been especially sharp at home where is ERA is 2.29 and his WHIP is just 0.92.
Arizona was expected to be a contender in the NL West this season but the Diamondbacks have not been able to keep up. Arizona has basically played .500 ball at home this season but the Diamondbacks are just 9-20 in road contests. For the season Arizona’s offense has been very productive, but in road games Arizona is hitting just .238. Arizona has now lost eight straight games as this long road trip continues and tonight’s match-up does not appear to provide much relief.
Dan Haren is supposed to be the ace of the staff and pitcher that can bail the team out of losing streaks with a quality effort. Haren has posted excellent strikeout numbers this season but he has been quite hittable. Haren has allowed four or more runs in six of his last ten starts and over his last four starts he has allowed 23 runs. In the last three games that Haren has pitched he has allowed ten home runs and his season ERA sits at 5.35. In road games his WHIP is 1.40 even though Haren allows few walks as he is allowing opponents to hit .279 for the season. Arizona also features the highest bullpen ERA in baseball at 7.70.
The Dodgers have snuck out narrow wins the last two nights including a late comeback win last night. Los Angeles is 6-1 already against Arizona this season with the lone win for the Diamondbacks coming in extra-innings. Los Angeles is 16-8 at home this season and 11-2 in the last 13 games playing as a favorite. With a well known starter in Haren on the mound for Arizona, Los Angeles will play as just a very slight chalk tonight and this is a series that the Dodgers have owned the recent history of.
DAVID MALINSKY
Milwaukee Brewers @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
We think the markets are wrong on this one, and with the price point now dropping below the -150 target line for us, we can get in play.
Milwaukee may look like a disappointment to some at 21-31, as does David Bush at 1-5/5.05, but there is a great deal of truth in those numbers, and they absolutely connect. First note that the Brewers have been out-scored by 38 runs, and already have the alarming count of 18 losses by four runs or more. Their spot in the standings is not a fluke driven by bounces. They have gone 2-8 in Bush’s 10 starts, getting out-scored in those games by 33 runs. The wins came over hapless Pittsburgh and Houston, the latter in extra innings, and in his five starts against teams at .500 or better it is an 0-5 collar, with a -30 run differential. Bush is certainly contributing.
Over the last 12 months Bush checks in at 3-13/6.97, making him arguably the worst full-time starter in the sport in that span. And instead of getting better many of the key indicators are actually worse - his Hits per 9 and W’s per 9 are at career-highs, the latter alarmingly so, while his K’s per 9 is at a career low, and HR’s per 9 are almost at a peak (the current 1.39 on the verge of over-taking his previous high of 1.41). Those are all ugly counts. And while reducing his ERA from LY’s 6.38 to the current 5.05 might appear to be a good sign, that is only because there have also been six unearned runs in his allowance that do not show up. And that is the connection between pitcher and team. Bush must pitch to contact in order to get batters out, and the Milwaukee defense rates dead last in the Major Leagues on both of our best sets of ratings. It is an ugly combination.
Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins bring more than enough to take advantage off of yesterday’s confidence-boosting breakout. Nolasco gets the bonus of being physically fresh off an early exit because of rain in his last outing vs. Atlanta, and note that since the All Star break LY he has worked to a 1.86 tune in seven starts following a game in which he threw less than 95 pitches. He can handle a free-swinging Milwaukee lineup that lacks experience against him (no Brewer has more than five career at-bats vs. his offerings), and Monday’s big working margin has the bullpen well-set for the latter stages.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies +124
I'm backing the Phillies showing solid value Tuesday against the Atlanta Braves. Yes, Philly is on their worst run of the season, losers of 7 of their last 9 games. But with their struggles comes some nice value as they are an underdog for a third straight game. There's no question that Philly remains one of the best teams in the league despite their recent struggles. Cole Hamels gets the ball tonight, and he is 5-3 with a 3.82 ERA this season and 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hamels owns 63 strikeouts in 63.2 innings this season. Compare that to Tim Hudson, who has just 27 K's in 64.1 innings this year, and I like our chances with Hamels on the mound. Hudson has pitched well this season, but he pitches to contact and over time that strategy will catch up with him.
The Phillies are a solid 24-15 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Philly is 22-9 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Though Atlanta has been solid offensively this season, they have not fared well against left-handed starters. The Braves are hitting .247 and scoring 4.2 RPG against lefty starters this season. Philly is 15-7 in 22 road meetings with the Braves over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Phillies Tuesday.
Black Widow
1* on New York Mets -101
After an embarrassing 6-18 loss at San Diego last night, we expect the Mets to give a very motivated effort Tuesday behind the right arm of red hot starter Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is 7-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.303 WHIP this season and the Mets are 8-2 in his 10 starts. Pelfrey has been brilliant of late, going 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a 1.31 ERA and 1.209 WHIP. He beat the Phillies, Yankees and Braves which are three of the best teams in the big leauges. San Diego starter Wade LeBlanc has gone in a different direction, going 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In his last 2 starts, he allowed 12 earned runs, 19 base runners and 4 home runs in 8.2 innings with losses to the Mariners and Cardinals. Pelfrey is a perfect 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season, and the Mets are outscoring their foes 4.3 to 1.6 runs/game in this situation. San Diego is 23-54 (-26.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 3 seasons. Take the Mets on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Baltimore Orioles +206
Reasons the Orioles win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors, in June games. This is a 57-49 ML System hitting 53.8% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +50.6 units betting 1 unit/game.
2.) Brian Matusz is one Orioles' starter who has experienced success against the Yankees. Matusz has posted a 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 3 starts against the Yankees, allowine 5 earned runs in 19 innings. He has allowed 3 runs or less and has gone at least 6 innings in all 3 of his lifetime starts vs. New York. Javier Vasquez is clearly the Yankees' work starter and should not be this heavily favored. Vasquez is 3-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.619 WHIP for the season, and 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.281 WHIP in home starts in 2010. We'll take the value. Bet the Orioles on the road.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 -120
The Cubs are only averaging 2.22 runs in Lilly's starts this season. In addition, Lilly went 0-1 with a 4.85 ERA against the Pirates in 2 starts last month. The Cubs did win one of his starts against them, but it came by just 1 run. It is also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last nine games against left-handed starters and 6-1 against the Cubs this season. Excellent spot to take the Pirates catching 1.5 runs.
Dennis Macklin
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs are a train wreck, thanks in the most part to their 8-18 record against teams with losing records. Add the Blue Bears 2.4 rpg and .222 BA over the past seven days and we see why Pittsburg is a VERY live dog. Ted Lilly not getting much support since he's been back, 1-4 with a 3.63 ERA. The Bucs Jeff Karstens, like Russ Ohlendorf yesterday, is ex-Yankee prospect that's a different animal on home mound. Comes of six shutout (three-hit) innings vs. the Cards and has always had a modicum of success facing Chitown. Pittsburg already 6-1 against the Cubs this year!
Nelly
Pittsburgh + over Chicago
The Pirates and Cubs are valued as drastically different teams but in reality the numbers are quite similar. The Cubs are just three games better in the standings and since this game is in Pittsburgh the Pirates should have the edge. Chicago is just 10-15 in road games and the Pirates are a .500 team at home. While the Cubs have been huge profit losers the Pirates have been profitable despite being ten games below .500 overall and dog status is again with Pittsburgh tonight. The Pirates have won six of the seven games between these teams so far in 2010 including all four games at PNC Park. Ted Lilly is pitching well but eh Cubs are just 2-4 in his last six starts and Pittsburgh has scored seven runs while posting 15 hits against him in two outings. In home games the Pirates are batting .275 against left-handed pitching and Chicago's offense has disappeared, scoring just nine runs over the last five games. Jeff Karstens has mainly been used as a reliever this season but he has made 33 career starts and met modest results. In his lone home start this season he pitches six scoreless innings while allowing just three hits. Karstens rarely walks batters and he has much better numbers in night games so this should be a solid set-up. Neither team has enjoyed great relief pitching but the numbers all around have varied considerably whether home or away and with solid dog status the Pirates are a great bet tonight.
Stan Lisowski
Minnesota
Twins stand 11-5 against left-handed starters this season and go 7-1 vs. the AL West. Seattle is just 8-22 off of a loss this year. In Blackburn’s starts, Minnesota is 8-1 on the season.
Dan Bebe
LOS (-122) vs ARI
We're going small on this Birthday Freebie, but a day without a Birthday Freebie is like a day without sunshine!
The Dodgers are affordable, thanks to the listed starters, and the D'backs are an absolute MESS right now.
It's not often that I advocate making a play that is based so largely on the complete and utter lack of confidence of one of the two teams involved, but that D'backs look so absolutely lost on the diamond that, as long as we can get a relatively reasonable price fading them, I would never argue with that position.
If you haven't been watching Arizona play, you're probably much less nauseous than their fans. The D'backs have lost all 7 games on their current road trip, 8 games in a row, and the last 2 nights they literally threw away the games. The bad feelings are mounting, and this team just wants to get home. It's incredibly demoralizing to take a lead into the 8th and 9th inning repeatedly and then watch the bullpen either balk the game away, or watch the second baseman commit a handful of errors on the same play to, as we noted above, throw the game away.
I know one of the beauties of baseball is that the guys get right back out there the next day with a chance to right their prior wrongs and there's no real time to brood over mistakes, but when you go out there expecting to lose, it's awfully tough to win, especially against a rock solid team like the Dodgers.
In terms of the pitching match-up here, this is something of a rematch, so I'm going against my usual philosophy by backing the guy that won the first meeting in John Ely. I really like this kid, though. He throws strikes, and the D'backs bats have been so cold lately, that the ultimate best move is to force those cold bats to put the ball in play. No free passes, no gifts, and the D'backs will likely continue to beat themselves.
Opposite Ely is Dan Haren, who just has not been himself AT ALL this year, and has already faced the Dodgers twice, his team losing both games. The Dodgers got a rusty Andre Ethier back in the lineup yesterday, and while he's still going to be a bit off, timing-wise, he's still a guy that dominates Dan Haren, and I like the Dodgers to scratch across enough runs to keep it close during the first 6-7 innings, and then that D'backs bullpen can come in and blow the whole thing to pieces.
Both bullpens are rested, which means the one that doesn't stink is going to have a huge, huge edge. That's the Dodgers. I like LA at this cheap price, and I think the D'backs lose their 9th in a row.
Play on LA!