Sac Lawson
FLA / MIL Over 9
Let's do things a little bit backwards and talk about our home plate umpire first.... Chad Fairchild is a guy who has called a few unders this year, and that alone will alarm some sharp bettors out there. But looking back at the pitching matchups he's seen so far this year, I'm really not surprised that the majority of his games have gone UNDER. That being said, compared to what he's seen so far this year, what he'll see tonight is mediocrity. Both Nolasco and Bush have a hard time hitting the zone and staying consistent at times, and I actually think Fairchild will shrink his zone a bit tonight. Anytime you see a bunch of staff aces, and then come back to earth and call a game involving Dave Bush, and the semi-wild Ricky Nolasco.. It's assumed that their pitches simply aren't going to look as good from behind home plate. Obviously not a huge factor in the total, but I'm just throwing out an angle that's running through my head here.
The main reason we're pulling the trigger is because we've all watched Dave Bush struggle like a mother this year. The guy is all over the place, and he happens to be facing a Florida team that got a huge charge in the 5th inning yesterday. I think they've got a lot left in those bats for tonight. On top of that, behind Dave Bush is the 2nd worst bullpen in the major league's. We're simply seeing a mediocre pitching staff against a Florida team that showed some serious fire yesterday.
On the other side, I'm actually a big fan of Ricky Nolasco, but it's hard to deny his struggles this season. This really isn't anything knew, we saw him get sent down to the minor league's early on last year due to similar troubles. Point being, the guy has been getting shelled a bit at home this year, and this Brewers offense can definitely bring some pain when they see some hittable stuff. Plus, the long relief staff, headed by Burke Badenhop is one that we'd absolutely love to see in this game. So if Nolasco doesn't go deep, we'll have the pleasure of seeing the weaker part of that Marlins pen.
After yesterday, I just have that vibe that we're about to see an insanely high scoring series. Both starters have had their struggles this season, and both bullpens are extremely rough in the long relief spots. Expect some runs today guys!
CIN (+106) vs STL
There is no denying the success that Cueto has had early on this season.. The guy is in top form, it's as simple as that. And there is also no denying how poor this Cardinals lineup can be. Coming off that huge barrage of runs yesterday, some people may argue that this team is catching fire, but I'd argue that they just spent all their runs for the entire series on one game. Until the Cardinals prove they can put up runs for an entire series, I'm going to keep betting that they won't.
On the Reds side, just like most, I've been shocked by the strength of their bats this season. I provided a full PJ Walters scouting report before his last start, so I won't be redundant by breaking him down again. I'll simply say that he was very lucky to be pitching at Petco park for his first call-up this season, and very lucky to be facing a Padres team that was cold as ice with the bats. Today he won't have those luxuries, and I don't think his stuff is where it needs to be to truly be competitive at a major league level right now.
Reds will take advantage of a poor start from PJ.
Dwayne Bryant
Boston Red Sox -148
The A's played well in Detroit, taking three of four. They now make the trip to Boston, while the BoSox had yesterday off following two straight wins over KC. Lackey has been a hit-or-miss proposition this season. His last three starts have all been on the road and against some good O's in Tampa Bay, Philly (before their current slump), and Detroit. Lackey has owned the A's in his career, sporting a 16-4 record and 2.76 ERA. More importantly, most of the A's hitters have been kept in check by Lackey.
Gio Gonzalez has pitched fairly well of late, but he has his work cut out for him today. In his only start against Boston (7/30/09), Gonzalez allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in just 5 1/3 innings. Several key Boston batters got at least a hit off him in that game, and new addition Adrian Beltre is 3-for-7 (.429) with 2 walks against Gonzalez.
I really like how Boston hits lefties at home. They're scoring 6.27 runs per game against lefties at Fenway this season. Oakland is averaging just 3.19 runs per game on the road against righties in 2010. And that Oakland pen is allowing teams to hit .294 against them on the road this season. That has led to a 4.97 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and .372 OBP.
It all adds up to a nice Small Action Wager for me on Boston/Lackey over Oakland/Gonzalez.
GREG SHAKER
TB Rays/Toronto Bluejays Under 9
This line is 9 and -125 at most books but one can get the extra 1/2 run at the better price and I suggest that they do. This is a high number for sure and it is because of the Toronto Hurler as he has not been up to snuff this year. But he will have the best chance to perform well tonight as he faces the Rays worst hitting posture, Southpaws that is, as this team is hitting just .234 this year in this situation. Certainly the Rays starter has been very good this year and his recent performances have been as well as he continues to WHIP Well and put himself into a lot of UNDER Games. His last 6 in fact have fallen below the posted number for tonight. Both Pens are performing well right now and have all year and in Toronto's case, their entire throwing staff has allowed just 5 runs over the last 4 games. Contagious behavior is sometimes the case when throwing staffs do this because it allows rested Bullpeners to perform at optimum level. My Model says we will see 9 or less 63.2% of the time and that is strong right there. I have to agree somewhat with her but maybe not quite as much. Still, a very playable game here.
St Louis Cardinals -117
This line is going to probably go upward here. Things are coming together for this Redbird team and while the starters for this one favors the Reds, most likely, everything favors the hometeam with their bats starting to produce and the Reds Pen have difficulty stopping anyone. Just brief thoughts on this one as it is clear advantage with the low line posted, the Reds so so play on the road, and our team having great success at Busch.
Pirates +1.5 Runs -125
The writeups get more and more brief. The Cubbies are going to score 2 times tonight at least to beat me here. Can they do that? I dunno. They have failed to do that the last 4 of 5 games played. These Pirates love to beat the Cubs and they have the last 8 of 9. In fact their only loss was a 1 run affair. BINGO! I will stop here.
Andre Gomes
Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx
In the WNBA is not that easy winning on the road and at the same time in a convincing way like the 6-points line spread is suggesting for Phoenix to beat the Lynx tonight.
Minnesota is riding a 4-game losing streak and they have lost their last 3 games by double digits points (by 12, 26 and 15 points) so their expectations for tonight's contest aren't exactly high. Their offense struggled to score against Chicago as the shot 32.1% from the field, 4-14 behind the arc and 18-32 from the line however they have been a good rebounding team and this is huge factor for tonight.
I expect their offensive struggles to disappear tonight because the Mercury are a terrible defensive team that doesn't rebound the ball and their only way to win a ballgame is to outscoring their opponent. The problem is that so far in the season their team chemistry isn't the same than last season chemistry with Pondexter and that's why they are 2-2 and 1-3 ATS this season and their ball movement is mediocre at best. In their only road game of the season they went to Tulsa and defeated the Shock 110-96 however they just took advantage of the Shock defensive scheme and torched the Shock behind the arc.
I expect this contest to be a tight game and I'm taking the points with the home under dog Minnesota Lynx as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Minnesota Lynx (+6)