SPORTS WAGERS
NIGERIA +2.14 over South Korea
Nigeria is 0-2 in the 2010 World Cup, but they have played far better than its record indicates. Nigerian goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama has been nothing short of spectacular in both of his outings. The Argentineans were gushing about his performance that held them to a lone goal and then he proved it was no fluke when he stunned the Greeks with save after save. He has been so good that he was named "MAN OF THE MATCH" in both of those losing efforts, which will probably find him the answer to a trivia question one day. The Nigerians would have won their last match with ease if not for the selfish and absurd actions of Sani Kaita. Up 1-0 they were in total control of the match, when the midfielder lost his wits and tried to kick Vassilis Torosidis. It's hard to play 10 minutes down a man in soccer/football but his sendoff happened in just the 33rd minute. The Greek pressure went from 0 to 100, which saw them outshooting the Nigerians 22-7 on their way to a 2-1 come from behind victory. It was a nice rally, but the fact remains that it never would have happened if not for Kaita's foolish play. South Korea beat a very lackluster Greek team in their first match and then was demoralized by Argentina in their second. Nigeria will have to overcome the emotional letdown of losing in such a heartbreaking fashion. However, they’ll want to do just that considering they are playing on their home continent. Nigeria is quite possibly the better team in this one, they certainly have the better goalkeeper and most importantly they sport all kinds of value on the plus side of 2-1. Play: Nigeria +2.14 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Dodger starter Clayton Kershaw has allowed 3 or less runs 11 of his 14 starts this year. The Dodgers are 21-8 their last 29 games as favorites and they are 15-6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. Manny and company after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. Angels starter Ervin Santana has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts both of which were losses. The Angels are 1-4 in the last 5 Interleague starts made by Santana. The Angels are 1-7 their last 8 Tuesday games and Santana is 1-5 his last 6 Tuesday starts.
MTi Sports
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Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners are 9-0 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and 7-0 at home when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. The Cubs are 0-5 after a 5+ run win and 0-10 with Dempster when they won as a home favorite in his last start. Seattle looks like the play.
Scott Spreitzer
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Greece at Argentina
Prediction: Over
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Diego Maradona's squad crushed South Korea 4-1 on Thursday, showing his team is a contender to go all the way. Don't be fooled by their low-scoring 1-0 win over Nigeria in their opening game. Argentina had enough chances where they could have easily scored at least three more times. And while the Greeks would love to focus on the defensive end, they can't be too conservative because they need at least a tie to have a chance to advance to the Knockout round. I believe Greece will score at least one goal, but won't be able to contain Argentina's all-star forwards. I expect a goal total like we saw on Thursday...5 goals on the board before it's all said and done. I'm playing the Over between Greece and Argentina on Tuesday.
Steve Merril
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Cardinals @ Blue Jays
PICK: Under 7.5
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Toronto will face their third left-handed starter in four days as St. Louis’ Jaime Garcia takes the mound against the Blue Jays tonight. Toronto has had a ton of problems against lefties this season as they are hitting just .199 as a team against southpaws. Toronto has gone Under in nine of their 16 games against left-handed pitching. Garcia is 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA and he has gone Under in 12 of his 13 starts. He is 4-2 with a 1.74 ERA on the road with all seven games going Under the total.
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Brett Cecil has been rock solid aside from a shaky start in San Diego his last time out. He's 7-3 with a 3.58 ERA on the year. Cecil has given up seven runs and 15 hits in his last 20.7 innings of work. The Cardinals have gone Under in 20 of their 34 road games and Under in 12 of their 20 games against left-handed starters. They are hitting .252 away from home, and their offense is not in good current form as they’ve scored just 17 runs over their last five games. Since the Blue Jays have gone Under in 20 of their 34 home games and they are hitting .239 over their last seven games, we’ll recommend a play on the Under in this game tonight.
BIG AL
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Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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The Brewers troubles at home continue. They are currently just 11-19 at Miller park heading back home for this series against the Twins after a road trip to Anaheim and Colorado which saw the Brewers go 3-3. They should be so lucky as to do that during the home-stand which starts tonight. But their poor home record may be the least of their concerns as they start off the home-stand against one of the best interleague teams in history. And they will have to face righthander Scott Baker who is coming off of his best start of the season in his last outing against Colorado in which he shut out the Rockies over seven innings allowing just two hits with a career-high 12 strikeouts vs. just one walk. Outings don't get much more dominant than that and now Baker will be looking to parlay that against a team that he has a 4-2 record against in six career starts. Even more impressive, Baker is 8-2 with a 3.81 ERA in 12 career interleague starts. The Brewers will throw lefthander Chris Narveson. About the only positive thing you can say about Narveson is that he has a winning record at 5-4. His ERA is 5.79 and he has surrendered a minimum of four earned runs in four of his past five starts. At .267, the Twins are the sixth-best team in the American League against left-handed pitching. Also, Minnesota is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings and 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Twins.
MARC LAWRENCE
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Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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The Twins open a three game series with the Brewers when they send Scott Baker to the mound in Milwaukee tonight. Bakers enters tonight's fray in great KW form with three walks and 17 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 5-1 in his last six road starts during June. With that, look for Baker to improve to 5-2 in his career team starts against the Brewers while the Twins improve to 9-2 the last 11 games in this series. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Giants @ Astros
PICK: Over
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
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Tim Lincecum heads to the mound for the visitors; Lincecum's last start was cut short as a line drive hit him in the back right shoulder in the sixth inning vs. the Orioles on Wednesday; he allowed two runs on eight hits over that span; he walked four; he's 7-2 on the year with a 3.11 ERA.
Lincecum was 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA on the road last season.
In the other dugout: Roy Oswalt gets the nod for the home side; the best word to describe Oswalt this year would be "unpredictable".
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After a couple of very poor outings, he's seemingly got back on track with a couple of strong showings.
For his career though, he's 5-7 with a 3.67 ERA vs. the Giants.
He's 5-8 with a 3.12 ERA this season.
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Bottom line: San Francisco came alive at the plate in its inter-league contest in Toronto on Sunday, hammering the Jays 9-6; Freddy Sanchez had a three-run shot and Pat Burrell a two-run bomb to help the Giants win their first game this season in an AL stadium; I believe this team will carry over some of that offensive production into Houston.
Important to note as well that Giants relievers have been brutal so far this year on the road with a collective 5.22 ERA through Sunday; the San Francisco bullpen had allowed runs in 20 of 29 contests.
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The Astros are coming off a disheartening 5-4 loss in ten innings on Sunday as the Rangers completed a three-game sweep at Minute Maid Park.
Because of Sunday's result, Houston made its biggest roster shake-up of the year; top position prospect Jason Castro was called up to be the starting catcher; Chris Johnson will enter the regular mix at third base, and a third call-up, Jason Bourgeois, will see some time in the outfield. Outfielder Cory Sullivan, reliever Casey Daigle and catcher Kevin Cash were all designated for assignment.
I believe this move will inspire the Astro's core group to wake up at the plate and take accountability for this teams struggles.
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When factoring in all of the above information, this total seems a little low, and you may want to consider a second look at the OVER in this situation.
Dennis Macklin
Reds vs. Athletics
Play: Over 7.5
Bronson Arroyo has been smoked for a 6.61 ERA in his last three road starts. The Big Red lumber not doing much the past week hitting just .204 but Dallas Braden just might be the remedy. The A's have lost all seven Braden starts since the perfect game, the Oakland southpaw 0-4 and 4.98 over that period. Thinking this one is set to fly over the total.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants -140
Tim Lincecum has the Astros and Roy Oswalt's number. Lincecum is 7-2 with a 3.11 ERA this season with 106 strikeouts in 92.2 innings, and somehow he has been getting bashed for his "drop off" in production from back-to-back Cy Young seasons. But I guess when you win that award two years in a row, you can't possibly get any more compliments. Lincecum is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in seven career starts vs. Houston.
Roy Oswalt is 1-7 with a 4.15 ERA at home this season. The Astros aren't helping him out much by giving him virtually no run support, but with an ERA over 4.00 he certainly has not been on top of his game. Oswalt has voiced through the media that he wants traded, and he clearly isn't happy pitching for the Astros who are just 26-44 this season and basically already out of postseason contention. Oswalt is already 0-2 this season vs. San Francisco, facing Lincecum both times. But it's hard to win when Lincecum has gone 2-0 in their head-to-head starts, allowing 1 earned run and 8 hits in 15 innings. San Francisco is a perfect 6-0 vs. Houston this season. The Astros are 1-8 in their last 9 games overall. Take the Giants Tuesday behind Lincecum.
Jim Feist
Florida Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Florida Marlins
Florida had a great weekend, getting its offense in gear while taking two of three from the (formerly) first place Tampa Bay Rays. The offense scored 19 runs in three games and now faces a Baltimore team that can't score, last in the AL in runs. Florida has a reliable starter in Anibal Sanchez (6-4, 3.22 ERA) while the Orioles have to go with Jeremy Guthrie (0-3, 4.43 ERA his last three). Play the Marlins.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
The Mets have some solid power angles going in this game. The Mets are a solid 24-10 at home this season including 9-2 in the first game of a home series. New York has won 13 of 17 games in June and 9-3 coming off a day off. In interleague action they have won 9 of 12 games. The Mets are also 7-1 as a home dog from +100 to +125 this year. They have averaged 5.6 runs per game on .303 hitting this season vs A.L. Teams and have an excellent 2.26 home bullpen era. The Tigers have been playing very well of late. However they are just 4-7 in the first game of a series, including 0-6 off a win. In the pitching matchup the perception is that the Tigers have a big edge with Verlander over Niese. When we delve into the numbers we see that Verlander has a 4.27 road era. J. Niese has a 2.65 home era and the Mets have a 5-1 home record when he pitches. Look for the Mets to take Game 1 of the series.
EZWINNERS
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Texas Rangers -250
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The Texas Rangers are a red hot baseball team and I will ride them here for hopefully another free winner. The Rangers have won eight straight games and sit at the top of the American League Central with a 3.5 game lead over the Angels. Tommy Hunter gets the start for the Rangers and in three starts this season Hunter has allowed a total of four earned runs in 17 2/3 innings for an ERA of 2.04. I expect another good outing out of Hunter against a struggling Pittsburgh team. The Pirates have won two games in a row, but they are dead last in the National League Central and had lost twelve straight games before defeating the Indians in their last two games. Pittsburgh's starting pitcher Ross Ohlandorf is 0-5 this season with an ERA of 5.22. Ohlandorf has allowed 11 earned runs over his last two starts and is just 1-2 with a 6.40 ERA in interleague play. I don't expect Ohlandorf's numbers to get much better in this game against a red hot Texas lineup in a hitters ballpark. The Pirates are only 3-13 in Ohlendorf's last sixteen road starts and 10-42 in their last fifty two interleague road games. The Rangers are 8-0 in their last eight interleague games and 5-0 in Hunters last five starts against a team with a losing record. Play on Texas.
CAJUN SPORTS
St Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The St. Louis Cardinals head north of the border for an interleague series versus the host Toronto Blue Jays. The first game is set for Tuesday night with the first pitch at 7:07PM Eastern Time. The Cardinals who have posted a record of 6-3 during interleague play this season will send left-hander Jamie Garcia to the bump with his 4-2 road record and ERA of 1.74. Toronto will counter with Brett Cecil who is 2-1 at home with an ERA of 4.50 this season. The Blue Jays have struggled against NL teams this season during interleague play winning only five of twelve contests. A check of the database reveals a MLB system that is active for tonight’s contest and it tells us to play against AL teams who have a team batting average of .260 or worse facing a NL starter whose ERA is 3.70 or better, a team that is batting .240 or worse over their last fifteen games. Playing against these AL teams has produced a record of 59-17 and 38 Units of profit since 97. Toronto leads the league in home runs but Garcia has only allowed two homeruns in thirteen starts so the longball should not be a factor in tonight’s matchup. We will back the better overall team at a very good price as the Cards grab Game 1 on Tuesday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* St. Louis Cardinals 4 Toronto Blue Jays 3
Gill Alexander
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SFG (-140) vs HOU
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Lincecum has not been at his sharpest of late. He has a 4.47ERA in his last 7 starts. He ranks 1st in the NL w 106SO but has also issued 37BB, the 7th worst total in the NL. However, he's holding opponents to a .223BA this season and righties to anemic .191 clip. Keppinger, Lee, Pence, and Feliz are among the Astros who hit from the right side of the plate. Lincecum has a career 1.33ERA v Hou. Oswalt has similar numbers to those of Lincecum. He has 89SO against 24BB and is holding opponents to a .224BA. Righties are only hitting .199 against him. That's not quite the advantage in this matchup, though Sanchez, Molina, Uribe, and Rowand are right-handed. That quartet doesn't represent quite the offensive impact as the Astros quartet mentioned above. Sabermetrics love both Lincecum and Oswalt, though Timmy gets the slight edge. The Freak has a 2.77FIP and 3.12xFIP (both 4th best in MLB) w a .314BABIP, indicating that Lincecum has earned those tremendous numbers. Oswalt has a 3.28FIP (17th best in MLB) and 3.40xFIP (9th best in MLB) w a .281BABIP, not a big dropoff from Lincecum's metrics. The Giants have beaten the Astros 8 times in a row and the Astros have scored a total of 12 runs in their 6 meetings this season. San Francisco has won 9 of 14 over all and have scored 6 runs in 8 of those 9 victories. It's always a little nervy fading Oswalt, but the opportunity to back Lincecum at this price doesn't come along often, especially when he has bonafide ownage on a team (along w the Giants overall ownage of the Astros) and his offense is going good.