Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday June, 26

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

When the Cardinals send Kyle Lohse to the mound against Carlos Zambrano and the Marlins in Miami Tuesday evening St. Louis will do so knowing Lohse is 9-6 in his last fifteen road team starts, and 2-0 in his last two starts in Miami. On the other side of the coin, Zambrano enters in rotten current KW form with 7 strikeouts and 13 walks in his last three starts, while his home ERA (6.12) at new Marlins Park is 3.5 runs worse than his road ERA (2.66). Back the better team and the better arm here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Rob Vinciletti

St Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals came back for a nice win last night as our free system play. Tonight they fit a different system that has cashed 11 of 13 times and plays on road favorites off a 1 run road favored win and scored 5 or more runs with 10+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a 1 run home dog loss with 10 or more hits while stranding 5 or more base runners. The Cardinals have won 7 of 9 on the road in the series and are averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. The Marlins are 5-17 in June, 10-38 as a home dog from +100 to +125 and have dropped 9 of 13 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. Lohse for the Cardinals has a solid 2.83 road era and 1.66 in his last three compared to Zambrano who has a 6.12 home era and 13.50 in his last three. Look for St. Louis to take game two.

Jesse Schule

Diamondbacks @ Braves
PICK: Over 8

Today will feature a battle of Hudson versus Hudson, which sounds like a messy divorce trial. This is a tale to two very unreliable Hudsons however, and I am confident that after hearing the evidence, you will find neither of the two to be 100% credible.

The Braves will give the start to veteran Tim Hudson today, coming off a solid outing his last time out. Hudson (5-3, 3.88 ERA) picked up the win in his last start, only allowing two earned runs over five innings, however he had some control issues, walking five. Hudson has been battling an ankle injury, and it has appeared to bother him at times, we will see how he handles it tonight.

The other Hudson (Daniel) gets the start for Arizona. He got roughed up his last time out, allowing seven runs on 10 hits, and giving up a pair of home runs. Hudson (3-1, 6.60 ERA) has posted an 11.37 ERA over his last three starts, exiting very early in two of the three.

"(I'm) just in a stretch right now where balls are finding holes and I can't make a pitch to get out of an inning," Hudson said. "It's one of those things I'm going through, have to dig deep and try to get out of it. I'll keep working hard and push through it."

The D'backs have been on fire at the plate lately, hitting .348 with runners in position over their last 16 games. "We were clicking on all cylinders; it's always nice to see that," outfielder Justin Upton said. "We're very capable of scoring runs. You can't expect it every night, but when we get the bats going, we can put up runs."

I expect to see a few runs scored before all is said and done here today.

Freddy Wills

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play; Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are currently putting up some runs with a 7-2 lead in the 4th inning on Monday and I think that will continue on Tuesday when they face Eric Bedard who has an ERA over 6 on the road this year. However, the main reason we like the Phillies as our play of the day is the man starting for the men in red pinstripes. Vance Worley has been pretty consistent thus far in his career and right now he's on a roll despite his team going 0-3 in his last three starts he has a 0.90 WHIP and a 1.35 ERA. He goes up against the worst RHP hitting team in the majors as the Pirates are dead last with a .647 OPS vs. RHP. I equate OPS to the ability to score runs. It combines power and the ability to get on base and the Pirates can't do either as they are 30th in total walks for the year.

Speaking of walks, Eric Bedard is having all kinds of control issues walking nearly 4 batters per game and the Phillies are not nearly as bad as the Pirates at scoring runs. The Pirates are just 8-24 in their last 32 visits to Philadelphia and part of the reason is it's known as a hitters ball park and the Pirates really can not compete in that type of game. They are also losing 70% of their games over their last 200 vs. a RH starter on the road going 61-135.

Notable Hot Starters:
Justin Masterson (2-1, 0.65 WHIP, 0.39 ERA)
C.J. Wilson (3-0, 1.22 WHIP, 2.11 ERA)
Tim Hudson (2-1, 1.15 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (1-2, 1.02 WHIP, 1.66 ERA)
Travis Blackley (2-1, 1.02 WHIP, 2.89 ERA)
Ryan Vogelsong (2-1, 0.92 WHIP, 2.49 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Dice K despite his 6.06 ERA over his last three starts since coming back from injury he has dominated the Blue Jays. In 98 AB the Blue Jays have a .409 OPS against him while the Red Sox have a .309 average and .793 OPS vs. Aaron Laffey and are #2 in OPS vs. LHP.

Notable Cold Starters:
Brian Matusz (0-3, 2.43 WHIP, 8.03 ERA)
Daniel Hudson (2-1, 1.97 WHIP, 11.37 ERA)
Carlos Zambrano (0-3, 2.79 WHIP, 13.50 ERA)
Bruce Chen (1-2, 1.54 WHIP, 7.30 ERA)
Liam Hendricks (0-3, 2.11 WHIP, 8.03 ERA)
Javier Vargas (0-3, 1.80 WHIP, 9.33 ERA)
Randy Wells (0-3, 2.19 WHIP, 6.57 ERA)
Barry Zito (0-3, 2.16 WHIP, 10.67 ERA)

Dave Cokin

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros
Pick: San Diego Padres

Hard to believe Kip Wells is back in the show. Harder to believe he'll be any good. But for one night, I see Wells being worth a shot and I'm going with the Padres to get the upset against the Astros tonight.

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has a fine offense (11th in runs scored) and heads to Cincinnati, a great hitter's park. Starter Marco Estrada has been sharp, with 34 Ks in 36 innings and only 33 hits and 7 walks allowed. The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds are 1-4 in Bronson Arroyo's last 5 starts, and in his last three starts has a 5.29 ERA. The Brewers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings, including 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati. Play the Brewers!

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +170 over TEXAS

The Tigers have underachieved all season. They were heavy favorites to run away with the AL Central but they’re two games under .500 and in third place. The good news is that they’re just two games out of first and they’ll probably still run away with the division. They came in here last night in an unfavorable spot and whacked the Rangers 8-2. That could trigger a big run before the break. The Tigers wasted little time giving Drew Smyly an opportunity at the MLB level this year and he has not disappointed. The Tiger roster has been crippled by injury and Smyly is dealing with recent issues that have led to a minor DL stint (blister) but he returns here fresh and ready to go. Smyly's early results are encouraging and his skills provide even more reason for optimism. ERA is solid but xERA is even better. Neither his hit% or strand% hint that a dramatic correction is looming. The kid can pitch and is certainly worth a serious look taking back a tag like the one offered here. Yu Darvish is 9-4 with a 3.45 ERA and a 3.64 xERA. He’s been progressively better each month and he could live up to his hype. However, Darvish has admitted to feeling fatigued after his June 7 th start and although he’s thrown back-to-back gems since, the toll of playing his first full season in America will take its toll along the way. This isn’t really about playing against Darvish anyway. It’s more about taking back a tag on the strong combination of Smyly and the undervalued Tigers. Play: Detroit +170 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +107 over KANSAS CITY

Chris Archer made his major league debut on June 20 and allowed two hits, struck out seven in seven innings while walking just one. Archer was one of the more dominating pitchers in the minors. He features a plus fastball and an outstanding slider. He has achieved a high strikeout rate because of his dominant offerings and that was evident is his first start at this level. The Royals have never seen him either and that often favors the pitcher. The Royals snapped a four-game losing streak with an impressive 8-0 win last night. Luke Hochevar gave the spent bullpen a much needed break but that weak unit figures to be back at work here. The Rays haven’t faced Bruce Chen in two years but Chen isn’t fooling anyone recently. He can barely last five innings anymore and enters this one with a 4.81 ERA and a .272 BAA. Chen has an awful 30%/46% groundball/fly-ball ratio. Those balls hit in the air are finding gaps and leaving the yard. He’s allowed three dingers over his last 12.1 frames. The combination of Chen and the Royals is not a favorable one spotting a price. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it here. Play: Tampa Bay +107 (Risking 2 units).

WUNDERDOG

Arizona at Atlanta
Pick: Arizona

The Atlanta Braves have not played good baseball lately. They are just 4-9 in their last 13 games, dropping them to just four games over the .500 mark after a quick start. Their hitting and pitching have both betrayed them during the 13-game stretch as they have been out-scored 65-42, and have been shutout three times. Despite Ian Kennedy standing at 5-7 off a 21-4 season a year ago, the Diamondbacks have played above the .500 mark. They are playing their best baseball of the season right now at 12-5 in their last 17, and own a four game winning streak coming to Atlanta. The D-Backs have been strong behind Hudson vs. the NL East where they are 6-1 in his last seven starts. The Braves are just 4-13 following a loss and 1-6 in their last seven at home. Play on Arizona.

MLB Predictions

St Louis Cardinals -114

The St Louis Cardinals will be looking for their 7th straight win against the Marlins tonight. Last night's 8-7 win after being down 6-2 entering the ninth inning was St Louis' 6th straight win against the Marlins dating back to last season and makes them 2-0 against them this year. The first meeting was the season opener when tonight's starter, Kyle Lohse, took a no hitter into the 7th inning in a 4-1 St Louis victory. The Cardinals are 39-35 on the year and 22-19 on the road, while the Marlins are 34-39 on the year and just 18-21 at their new stadium. St Louis has won 4 straight and 5 of their last 6, while the Marlins have lost 7 of their last 8 games and are just 5-17 in their last 22 overall. Lohse is 6-2 on the season for the Cardinals with a 2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average. He has pitched just as well on the road with a 4-1 record and 2.83 ERA. Carlos Zambrano is 4-5 on the season with a 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .224 opponents batting average. In his last three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs over just 9.1 innings of work. He has walked 13 batters while striking out just 7 over that span. At home Zambrano is just 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and .303 opponents batting average. Note that the Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 5-1 in their last 6 as a road favorite, and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Cardinals are 18-8 in Lohse's last 26 starts vs a team with a losing record, and 9-3 in his last 12 starts with 4 days of rest. The Marlins are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games, and 3-13 in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record. The Marlins are also just 6-8 in games Zambrano has started this year, including 0-3 in his last 3 starts. Not only is St Louis 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Marlins, they are also 22-7 in their last 29 meetings in Miami/Florida. Take the Cards tonight with confidence.

Matt Fargo

Arizona D-Backs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

After a very successful homestand, the Diamondbacks take to the road where they are under .500 on the season. They were shutout in their last two road games at Los Angeles as the Angels beat them by matching 2-0 scores. The offense has been an issue on the road all season as Arizona is hitting .238 including just .227 against right-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are 8-19 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves meanwhile are back home following a split with their six-game roadtrip. The home field has not been very strong this year as Atlanta is just 15-17 and that is due to a bad homestand last time out where it went just 3-6 including losses in six of the final seven games. The Braves will be more than ready to get this homestand started the right way and the spot is good as they are 60-29 in their last 89 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Tim Hudson takes the hill for Atlanta and he has been pretty inconsistent this season. Half of his 10 starts have been quality outings but he has allowed three runs or less in six of his last eight starts including the last three so he is coming back into good form. That should continue here against a bad offense and against an Arizona team that he is 6-0 against with a 1.36 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight career starts. The Braves are 12-4 in Hudson's last 16 starts as a home favorite. Daniel Hudson has been very inconsistent as well and when things go bad, they really go bad. He has allowed six runs or more in three of his eight starts including his worst outing of the season last time out as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just four innings against the Mariners. Overall he has a 6.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP and those numbers are even worse at night where he has a 12.12 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in four starts. He has faced the Braves once which came last season where he allowed four runs in a loss.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Dodgers -115

Even though the Dodgers are just 1-6 over their last 7 games, there is no way I will pass up on taking Clayton Kershaw at this price.

Kershaw is 5-3 with a 2.73 ERA in 15 starts (Dodgers 10-5 ML), and comes into this game off one of his best starts of the season. He allowed just one earned run over 8 innings against the A's, but the Dodgers bullpen allowed 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth to spoil his efforts.

There's plenty of reason to expect Kershaw to dominate the Giants tonight, as he is 6-2 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in 12 career starts vs. San Francisco.

San Francisco will counter with Ryan Vogelsong, who in his own right has been very solid this season. Vogelsong is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 13 starts.

For whatever reason, Los Angeles seem to play their best when they face a top level pitcher. Los Angeles is 12-2 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 21-6 in Kershaws last 27 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower, and 4-1 in Kershaws last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Nationals -133

Washington has the clear advantage on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. The southpaw is 9-3 with an ERA of 2.55 in 14 starts with the Nationals winning 11 of those. The Nationals are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus a team with a losing record. Colorado's Christian Friedrich is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.40 over his last three starts and 1-2 with a 12.60 ERA in three home starts. The Rockies, who are 4-14 in their last 18 overall, are 1-6 in their last 7 home games and 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Expect the Nats to bounce back behind Gonzalez.

Jeff Alexander

LA Angels -133

The Halos have the edge with Wilson on the hill. The southpaw is 8-4 (11-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.44 this season. The Angels have won each of his last 6 starts, and he has held the opposition to 1 earned run or fewer in 5 of those. Baltimore's Matusz, who is 5-8 (6-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.00 on the season, is really struggling. He's 0-3 with an ERA of 8.02 over his last 3 starts. We'll get behind Wilson and the Angels here.

Dave Price

Cleveland Indians +145

The Yankees are rolling but there's value in the Indians at this price with Justin Masterson on the hill. The right-hander has been dialed in. He has won his last two starts while given up no earned runs on 7 hits with 18 strikeouts and three walks in 16 innings of work. He's also enjoyed success against the Yankees. He's 2-1 with an ERA of 2.08 in 4 career starts versus the Yanks, holding them to no runs on 3 hits in 8 innings of a 5-3 victory in his most recent start against them. We'll take the Tribe.