Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, June 29,2010

Tom Freese
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Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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Angels starter Joel Pineiro has allowed 3 runs total in his last 3 starts. Pineiro has 17-3 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Pineiro has won his last 4 starts. The Angels are 17-6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 20-8 their last 28 games on grass. Texas starter is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched. The Rangers are 2-7 their last 9 games vs. winning teams and they are 3-7 in the last 10 starts made by Feldman on the road.

MTi Sports
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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The Braves are 14-0 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series. The Nationals are 0-6 as a dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost and 0-6 after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings. Finally, the revenge-minded Derek Lowe has produced nine straight wins at home when the Braves lost the last time he started vs this opponent. Consider laying the price or taking Atlanta on the run line.

Steve Merril
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Blue Jays @ Indians
PICK: Under 8.5
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The Indians and Blue Jays continue their series on Tuesday night. Brandon Morrow gets the start for Toronto. He is 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA over his last six starts. Morrow has enjoyed having catcher Jose Molina behind the plate considering his ERA is 1.32 with Molina. The righty picked up a no-decision on May 5th in Cleveland. In that game, Morrow gave up three runs and six hits in 5.3 innings of work. Jhonny Peralta (0-6) and Shin-Soo Choo (0-2) are both looking for their first hits off Morrow. Cleveland’s offense is struggling a bit as they’ve scored just 27 runs in their last eight games.
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The Blue Jays are also struggling offensively as of late. They have scored a total of 38 runs over their last 12 games. Tonight they’ll face Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona who is 6-6 with a 3.64 ERA in 15 starts this season. The righty has won two of his last three starts. Carmona also got a no-decision in that May 5th game giving up two runs and seven hits in 6.3 innings of work. His best two starts against the Blue Jays have come at home in his career. John Buck (2-13), Lyle Overbay (1-10), Vernon Wells (2-8), Jose Molina (2-8), and Nick Green (0-2) struggle against Carmona. As a team, Toronto is hitting just .227 on the road, and since both offenses are in bad current form, we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Blue Jays and Indians tonight.

MARC LAWRENCE
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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The Angels and Rangers open a three-game set in Anaheim Tuesday night when Joel Pineiro matches serves with Scott Feldman. Pineiro takes the mound with four straight team starts wins in a row and is also 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last five starts at home. On the other side of the coin, Feldman enters off an 'inside-out' performance in his last start when he lasted six innings while allowing 13 men on base and five runs in a 6-5 win. Stay at home with Pineiro and the Halos here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Angels.

Jim Feist

Rays vs. Red Sox
Take: Under 9½

Boston returns to Fenway after a long trip out West. The Red Sox lost two key offensive players on the trip, losing 2008 MVP second baseman Dustin Pedroia to a broken foot and catcher Victo Martinez to a broken thumb on Sunday. That will help Tampa Bay starter James Shields, who has a hard sinker and has a 3.68 ERA against Boston this season. Red Sox righty John Lackey is finally throwing better, with a 2-0 record and a 4.58 ERA his last two starts, walking 2 in 19 innings with 15 Ks. Both teams are exceptional defensively, too. Play the Rays/Red Sox Under the total.

EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -285
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The Cardinals took the opening game of this series with the Diamondbacks with their ace Chris Carpenter on the mound and I like them to keep it rolling here with their second ace Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright has shut out two of his last four opponents and I expect him to limit the Arizona offensive chances in this game. Arizona's starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis has all kinds of problems with his control. Willis has issued 18 walks in his last 21 1/3 innings pitched and I don't expect him to magically have fixed those problems coming into this start. Arizona is only 2-30 in their last thirty two games as an underdog of +$200 or more. Play on St. Louis.

Gill Alexander
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CWS (-125) vs KAN
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Floyd has posted a 0.93ERA in his last 4 starts. Opponents are batting .155 against him over that stretch. He has 6 quality starts in his last 7 outings. Bannister is coming off 6 5-hit shutout innings v Was. You almost never read anything from me about day/night splits w starters, but in the case of Bannister, I make an exception. Way back in April, we successfully backed Bannister based on exceptional daytime pitching statistics. Sure enough, his tremendous performances in daytime ballgames has held form in 2010. but so has his pedestrian nature at night. Bannister's 7.66ERA at night is tough not to ignore, especially for someone who so consistently follows such a pattern. Right-handed batters are raking him this season, as well, hitting .314 against the KC righty. As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Sox are a right-handed laden lineup that hits right-handed hitters better than they do lefties. But, all that aside,it's the advanced stats that I turn to for real confirmation in any lean. Here, they corroborate the value on the ChiSox. Floyd has a 3.47FIP (20th best in MLB) and 3.77xFIP. His 1.33 ERA-FIP is the 3rd widest discrepancy in all of baseball to the positive side, a significant indicator of embedded value in this line. Plus, he has a .331BABIP, the 14th unluckiest mark in MLB, meaning there's more stellar outings to come from Floyd. In short, he's a sabermetrics perfect storm. Bannister has a 5.10FIP and 4.61xFIP. This is a must play on Chicago at such an affordable price.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
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The Braves are 14-0 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series. The Nationals are 0-6 as a dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost and 0-6 after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings. Finally, the revenge-minded Derek Lowe has produced nine straight wins at home when the Braves lost the last time he started vs this opponent. Consider laying the price or taking Atlanta on the run line.
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Play on: Atlanta Braves

Tony George
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Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
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The Rangers are hot on the road winning their last 8, however LA has revenge on their mind in this one with a RED HOT Pinerio on the hill tonight with a 1.11 ERA his last 3 outings giving up less than a hit per inning in those games. He is also stellar at home when he starts. Texas beat the Angels in May in a 2 game home series sweep, and the Rangers are due to fall on the road in this one. The Angels should neutralize the bats of Texas somewhat here and get a tight win at home tonight.

Rocketman
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Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
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Texas is 6-13 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. LA Angels are 50-27 the past 3 years in June. Scott Feldman is 5-6 with a 5.32 ERA overall this year and 3-4 with a 5.68 ERA on the road this season. Joel Pineiro is 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA at home this year and 3-0 with a 1.11 ERA his last 3 starts. During Pineiro's last 3 starts he has pitched 24.3 innings and allowing only 14 hits. He has 17 strike outs compared to only 3 walks. We'll recommend a small play on LA Angels tonight!

Craig Trapp
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Two teams headed in opposite directions in this matchup. BOS has a few key injuries but still have great depth and huge momentum behind them. TB on the other hand just can't win lately losing 7 of last ten including being no hit again this last homestand. In fact this TB team since sweeping BOS in April are barely .500. Boston turns to Lester who after a slow start has been very good (6-0 last 6 home starts). TB turns to their worst pitcher lately Shields (0-6 last 6 starts 7.12 ERA). Crawford is the glue behind this TB offense and he looks to be out for game 1 in this series. Too much value on a super hot BOS team that is looking at 1st place if they win this series.

Rob Vinciletti
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Athletics vs. Orioles
Play: Over 8.5
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This game fits a nice totals system. What we want to do is play the over for certain road favorites if both teams are coming off 1 run home wins. These games have played over 78% of the time. Oakland has played over in 5 of 7 games with a day off. The Orioles fresh off a rare sweep have gone over the total 8 of 10 times as a home dog in this range and 14 of 22 times off a win. They have really hit the ball hard over the past week. Baltimore is averaging 6 runs per game and hitting .309 over their past 7 games. In the pitching matchup we have Lefty Dallas Braden making the start for Oakland. Braden has a 5.03 road era and Baltimore right hander Matsuz has a 4.77 era at home. Oakland also has a poor 5.29 road bullpen era this year. With the total sitting at 8.5 we will go over the total tonight

Bryan Leonard

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Brandon Morrow has always had an overpowering arm but he has battled control issues his entire career. He's also been sidetracked because of injuries. But right now he is pitching better than at anytime in his career and the betting public has been slow to recognize. In his last 5 starts Morrow has permitted just 5 earned runs in 34 innings. His last 4 outings have resulted in a 26 to 8 strikeout to walk ratio. On the season he has struck out 92 batters in only 84 innings. And those 5 starts weren't against poor offenses as he is off the Cardinals, Giants, Rockies, Yankees and Rays. He will not be intimidated by this weak hitting Cleveland club.
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Fausto Carmona started the season on fire as much was made about his pitching rubber adjustments. But since that time he has struggled especially in his last 2 starts which resulted in limited pitch counts of 85 and 80. His only wins in his last 7 starts came against two of the worst teams in baseball Washington and Pittsburgh.
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The Indians are 2-7 their last 9 games and just 17-33 on the season against right handed starters. Look for Toronto to right the ship behind the hot pitching of Morrow.

Info Plays

3* on Colorado Rockies +115
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Reasons the Rockies win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. This is a 32-14 ML System hitting 69.6% since 1997.
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2.) Starter Jason Hammel is 4-0 in his last 6 starts, allowing a total of 7 earned runs in 40.2 innings for a 1.55 ERA during this time. Wade LeBlanc is just 2-5 over his last 8 starts, and has allowed at least 7 hits in 5 of his last 6 starts along with at least 1 walk in 10 straight starts. LeBlanc sports a 1.500 WHIP for the season which is well above the league average. This is a huge series for the Rockies who are looking to gain ground on the Padres in the NL West, and we have them winning tonight behind Hammel.