Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays +101
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The Boston Red Sox are hurting right now, with both Dustin Pedroia and Victory Martinez injured. Neither player will be suiting up tonight and I expect the Rays to take advantage as they look to get back on track in the AL East. The Rays are the only team to beat John Lackey at Fenway this year, scoring eight runs in 3.1 innings during an 8-2 win on April 19th. In fact, the road team is a perfect 7-0 in 7 meetings between these teams this season. The Rays swept Boston in 4 games at Fenway, while the Red Sox returned the favor by taking all 3 games in Tampa.
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James Shields is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this season, clearly pitching his best baseball away from home. John Lackey has not been that impressive this season with a 4.69 ERA in 15 starts overall, and a 5.03 ERA in 8 home starts. He has just been fortunate to get solid run support, which likely won't be the case tonight against Shields with a depleted roster. Tampa Bay is 11-1 against the money line in road games against division opponents this season. They are scoring 6.7 RPG in this spot. The Rays are 25-10 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. Take the Rays Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Los Angeles Angels -117
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Look for the Angels to cut into the Rangers' division lead with a home win tonight. The Halos will be in good hands with Pineiro. He's been good at home all season, going 4-2 (6-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.25. He has won his last 4 starts, and he has really been dialed in over his last 3, posting an ERA of just 1.11. He's also a perfect 2-0 in division play with an ERA of 2.40. It is also certainly worth noting that the Rangers are 0-9 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing to these teams by an average score of 2.8 to 6.7. They are also 0-5 in Feldman's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Halos at home tonight.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +115
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The Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss, and I'll take them showing solid value in this bounce back spot today. The Reds' Leake has not been sharp, as evidenced by his 6.06 ERA and his 2.205 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Blanton has had plenty of struggles this season, but I'm very encouraged by what he has done in his last two starts, earning wins while only allowing 3 runs in each. Plus, Blanton is 2-0 lifetime against the Reds. The Phillies have won 9 of the last 13 meetings in this matchup and 6 of their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Philly's bats are starting to come alive, and I really like their chances against the rookie Leake in this spot.
Nelly
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Detroit + over Minnesota
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Nick Blackburn has pitched far better at home this season but the Twins have lost each of his last five starts. In those five games Blackburn has allowed 25 runs while getting just nine strikeouts. In night games Blackburn owns a 1.71 WHIP with a 5.98 ERA and the Twins are in the midst of an awful slide, losing six of the last seven games. Minnesota has scored just 21 runs in those seven games and while the schedule has been challenging there have been some clear signs of trouble. The Tigers claimed the lead in the AL Central with last night's win and with Armando Galarraga on the mound there will be an opportunity to extend that lead. Detroit is 5-0 in Galarraga's last five starts and while he does not post great strikeout numbers he has been very tough to hit. For the season his WHIP is just 1.14 and opponents are batting only .224 against him. Galarraga does own stronger numbers at home but his last two road outings have been solid efforts. The Twins own a strong home record for the season but have gone just 2-4 in the last six home contests. The Tigers got some bad news yesterday with the injury to Joel Zumaya but the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season. Umpire Scott Barry has also been favorable to road teams this season with those squads going 8-6. The Twins are slumping and Blackburn does not appear to be in a position to bail the team out given how poorly his recent starts have gone. Detroit is playing much better ball right now while still catching underdog value.
JR O'Donnell
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CWS (-130) vs KAN
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KC Royals and Brian Bannister will help the Chi Sox avoid a 3 game tail spin, The Sox send Gavin Floyd and his sub par 2-7 over all mark, and close to 5 ERA tonight, we note that he also is 0-4 and close to a 8 ERA vs the Kc Royals .. All that being said the Vegas lines makers are showing respect and love for the Chi Sox @ - 130. This line tells us that the Chi Sox are the play! Just not in love with B Bannister as that 1-0 win over S Strasburg was not normal. he bounces tonight.
Easy Baseball Betting
Diamondbacks (+260) over Cardinals
We are going to take a little chance here with Dontrelle Willis. The +260 of the D'backs is just too big to pass up. First, the Cardinals are impressive in games 1s going 18-7, +7.6 units. The rest of the series, they are mediocre at best = 22-26, -15 units. So what we basically have here is a below 500 team that is super mondo favorites. They hit lefties a bit better than they do righties but after a win, they are -12 units whereas off a loss are +5 units. So something about this team causes them to lack the motivation to come back and win a second game in a row. This is going to be more important a game for Willis than it is for the Cardinals. With that said, +260 is pure value.
Pirates (+215) over Cubs
These Pirates are not a very good team on the season BUT a lot of their bad record has come from non-divisional rivalry games 8-19, -3.5 units and interleague games 2-13, -11 units. This is a total of 10-32, -14.5 units. In divisional rivalry games, these Pirates are 16-18, +6 units. They are a totally different team when playing rivals. This makes them super value as a +215 dog. Our program always tends to look for these dichotomies. A team that is undervalued perhaps because of a poor record but they have either a super strong home record, record vs lefties, divisional rivalry record, etc that justifies their odds to be much better than it should be. And then by betting those teams, you make money in the long run.
BOB WINGERTER
Minnesota Twins -125
The Minnesota Twins lost to the Detroit Tigers on Monday and at the same time lost their lead in the American League Central that they have held since opening day. Francisco Liriano allowed nine hits and six runs while striking out six over six innings of work but it was the four runs in the first followed by the run in the second that were his undoing. The loss was the sixth for Liriano and the seventh in their last 10 games for the now second place Twins. Jim Thome hit his seventh home run of the season and Thome, Orlando Hudson, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau all had two hits each but Minnesota was never able to dig themselves out of the hole that Liriano got them in. The Twins look to get back in the driver's set as they send Nick Blackburn to the mound for the start. Blackburn hasn't won in his last five starts and has been pummeled in the four that resulted in losses and for the year he has allowed 111 hits and 54 earned runs while striking out 26 in 79 and two-thirds innings of work. Blackburn beat the Tigers earlier this season. The Detroit Tigers have been battling it out in the AL Central all season long and they have finally emerged all alone in first place. Detroit has won five of their last 10 and two in a row as they have a half of a game lead in the division. Jeremy Bonderman was gifted and early lead and then he allowed nine hits and four runs in five and a third innings of work to earn his fourth win and Jose Valverde pitched an inning and two thirds to get his 18th save of the year. Gerald Laird hit his second home run and Austin Jackson, Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn, Miguel Cabrera, and Danny Worth all had two hits to pace the attack. The Tigers look to build on their lead as they send Armando Galarraga to the mound for the start. For the season Galarraga has allowed 38 hits and 18 earned runs while striking out 16 in 44 innings of work. Galarraga hasn't lost since the the perfect game plus one game. Minnesota is 39-17 in their last 56 against the American League Central, 5-1 in Blackburn's last six starts as a home favorite, and 41-19 in their last 60 games as a favorite. Detroit is 1-4 in their last five road games against a right handed starter and 19-40 in their last 59 as a road underdog. Detroit is 29-65 in their last 94 games in Minnesota.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Spain -½ +107 over Portugal
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It's a shame that one of these superpowers of football will be going home before the quarterfinals. This is the first time that the neighboring nations will ever meet in World Cup play and it figures to be a great match. Spain has failed to hit their stride yet in the tournament. They were shocked by Switzerland in their first match and were unable to score a goal on 25 shots. A shoddy display of Spanish defending lead to the Swiss goal that gave us the first major upset of the World Cup. Spain rebounded with a 2-0 victory over a defensively minded Honduran squad. Spain would have won 3-0 if not for David Villa missing a penalty kick in the 2nd half. Spain played much better defensively in the effort allowing just four shots, with none of them being on target. They managed to beat a very energetic Chile squad 2-1 to propel them to victory in Group H. Many feel that Portugal has fared better in this tournament, however the numbers are very deceiving. They were outworked and outplayed by the Ivory Coast but were very lucky to walk away with a 0-0 draw. They rebounded from that effort with a 7-0 thrashing over North Korea. However, Portugal was only up 1-0 until the 53rd minute when they scored 3 goals in 7 minutes. They then scored another 3 goals in the last 9 minutes of regular time. The match was not nearly as impressive as the score line would indicate. Many were impressed by the Portuguese effort against Brazil where they seemed to control the play in the 2nd half. However, the Brazilians only needed a draw to win the group and were in total defend mode late in the contest. It will be very difficult for the Portuguese to play aggressive against the Spaniards today as seven of their players enter the game with yellow cards, including Cristiano Ronaldo. Spain will not have that problem since they have not received a booking yet in the entire tournament. Spain has 15-5-12 lifetime edge over Portugal, but they've played only 6 times in the last 20 years. The last time they met was at EURO 2004 with Portugal winning 1-0 but this is a Spanish side with far more talent now. Spain was dominant in the 2008 installment of the Euro Cup, which saw them being crowned the kings of European football. They have not found that form as of yet, but with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line they figure to play their best match of the tournament. Before the tournament the Spaniards would have been much bigger favorite in this match. People are putting too much emphasis on their sluggish start and loss to Switzerland. Spain will shut down Ronaldo and play the electrifying football they were accustomed to prior to this World Cup. Play: Spain -½ +107 (Risking 2 units).
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Colorado +1.15 over SAN DIEGO
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Great value here on Jason Hammel and the Rocks. Hammel has average surface stats but pay no attention to his 4.31 ERA and .285 BAA. He got off to a rough start before going on the DL for three weeks and his current form says everything is just fine. Hammel's string of good starts ended with his last outing vs. Boston but prior to that he threw 28.1 scoreless innings in a row and allowed just one run over 29.1 innings. Hammel’s ERA since his return from the DL on May 15 has dropped 3½ runs and that’s an outstanding number. Hammel is solidified now as a groundball pitcher and he has an elite BPV (112) over the past six weeks that nobody knows about (see explanation of BPV and PQS at the bottom of this page). His control has been good all year and he’s certainly one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Wade LeBlanc was an early season darling who blew up and then settled into the ho-hum pitcher that he really is. His 2.37 ERA in June is sweet but that’s largely based upon an unsustainable 88% strand rate. Leblanc is an average pitcher that’s short a plus pitch and in no way should he and the Padres be a –1.22 favorite over the far superior pitcher. Play: Colorado +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
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Washington +1.87 over ATLANTA
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After an exciting and intense pitcher’s duel for the first 6+ innings last night the Braves broke out in the seventh amidst some very shaky defense by the Nationals and ultimately put them away. Stephen Strasburgh was pitching, the joint was rocking and the game was televised nationally. This is a letdown spot for the Braves after that satisfying win and they could be very vulnerable here. Derek Lowe has been hit and miss all year and as a result, cannot be trusted as a huge favorite. His strikeouts are way down, his walks are up and he basically pitches to contact. Lowe has pitched terribly from the stretch this year. He also has shown a huge BPV decline during games. He starts off looking fantastic. First time through lineups: 118 BPV. His skills erode the second time through lineups (40 BPV) and they fall into a black hole after that. He has a –94 BPV, a 6.29 ERA and 1.89 WHIP the third time through lineups along with some ugly skills. Lowe has not faced the Nats this year but last season he went 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA and current Nats hitters have 225 combined AB’s against him and they’re batting a combined .302. Lowe is one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game and we’ll try to cash in on that here. Craig Stammen makes his first start since being demoted June 6 to clear a rotation spot for Stephen Strasburg. He had little trouble in the minors, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts and we’ve seen plenty of guys do well upon their return to the big club after a brief demotion. Anyway, this one is much more about playing against a hugely overvalued Lowe. Play: Washington +1.87 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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One can't ignore Seattle's 11-26 road record or that the Yankees are 25-10 in The Bronx but I'm still making a small play on the Mariners in this game. Cliff Lee makes it worth the gamble. He got a late start this season (first start came on April 30) and is 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA. He's got a STUNNING 76-4 KW ratio (hasn?t issued a walk in 37 innings) and is 5-1 (team is 6-1) over his last seven starts. He's allowed a modest nine ERs over his last six starts (50 IP), giving him a 1.62 ERA (includes three CGs and two eight-inning efforts). Hughes (10-1 with a 3.17 ERA) has given the Yanks everything and more this season but note that while the Yanks are 8-4 at home vs lefties this season, they are averaging only 3.5 RPG vs lefties in night games. Bottom line is I'm taking a chance (at this price) with Lee.
John Ryan
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Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Play: Seattle Mariners
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3* graded play on Seattle with Cliff Lee as they take on the Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Perhaps an on the job interview for Lee, who will most assuredly be courted against this season as the trading deadline approaches. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-13 making 27.6 units since 2004. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and with a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. Lee is a solid 30-13 (+17.9 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game since 1997; 41-16 (+21.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Ny has struggled against LH starters batting 255 with just 61 extra base hits in 27 games. Lee is one of the best lefties in the AL and we feel strongly he will dominate tonight. Seattle bullpen is in fie shape as well noting they sport a 1.83 ERA and a 1.118 WHIP over the past 7 games. Take Seattle.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers are 17-8 this season in the opening game of a series and with a 16-2 record in the last 18 games, no team has been playing better ball than Texas. The Rangers did draw a few favorable match-ups to produce the wins but Texas has now won eight consecutive road games. Texas have averaged 6.9 runs per game scored in that 18-game span, scoring at least three runs in all but two games and at least four runs in all but four games. In the last ten games Texas owns a .325 team batting average and the Rangers won each of the first two meetings with the Angels this season, while also winning 12 of the last 20 between these division rivals.
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In past years the Angels have been a dominant team at home but that has not been the case this season, just going 21-17 so far in Anaheim. The Angels are favored in this match-up due to Joel Pineiro who has made three consecutive strong starts. Pineiro has average numbers for the season but he has had great success against the Dodgers who he faced in two of his last three starts. Five times in his last twelve starts Pineiro has allowed four or more runs and the Angels are only 4-5 in his night game starts. For the season his ERA is 4.95 in night games with a 1.42 WHIP. The Angels also feature one of the worst bullpens in the AL, with a 4.83 season ERA.
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After going 17-8 last season, there have been some setbacks for Scott Feldman in 2010. He struggled considerably in the first six weeks of the season but he appears to be back to solid form as Texas is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Feldman is not quite as strong on the road but in his last three starts he has 19 strikeouts and only five walks allowed and that span included two road outings. Feldman is 4-2 in his last six decisions and the Rangers went 4-1 when he started against the Angels last season. The Rangers have been led by the bullpen in recent weeks to help survive some injuries in the starting rotation and the bullpen has a 1.40 ERA over the last ten games.
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American League underdogs in division match-ups have a great track record of success and Texas is 8-2 in the last ten games as an underdog including 7-0 in the last seven games as road underdogs. The Rangers have been one of the best performers in baseball this season, having gone 36-17 in the last 53 games while the Angels have not lived up to their reputation on offense this season. Los Angeles is batting just .258 for the season compared with a .283 for the Rangers and in home games the Angels are batting only .250. Los Angeles also has one of the worst home records of any of the current playoff contenders. Los Angeles is also just 14-20 this season against winning AL teams and this is an opportunity for the Rangers to emerge as the clear front-runner in the AL West. The Rangers will not often be underdogs with the way they have been playing and this appears to be a great opportunity to back the superior team.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -140
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With Wainwright on the hill, the Cards are worth a shot on the run line. Wainwright is a perfect 7-0 with an ERA of 1.67 at home this season, and it is worth noting that the Cards have won 6 of those starts by at least 2 runs. The Cards will also be very motivated tonight as a win and a Reds loss will put them back in the top spot in the Central. I must also mention that Arizona is only 4-18 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season, losing in these games by an average score of 3.3 to 6.4. Take the Cards on the run line.
Red Dog Sports
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Phoenix at Atlanta
Pick: Under 190
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Diana Taurasi is doubtful tonight for the Phoenix Mercury. They are an automatic over at home as they have played close to 80% over at home in the last two seasons. However, most of their totals are in the 182 or less range and not up to 190. These teams could play a 105-100 game but I like our chances for it to stay in the 180-188 range and end with an UNDER.
Black Widow
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1* on Toronto Blue Jays -115
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The Toronto Blue Jays send red hot starter Brandon Morrow to the mound tonight in what should be an easy win for the road team. Cleveland is just 28-47 this season, including 13-20 at home while the Blue Jays have posted a winning 19-18 record on the road. Morrow is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last 5 starts, facing the likes of the Rays, Yankees, Rockies, Giants and Cardinals. So it's not like he has been beating up on weak competition. Morrow has allowed just 5 earned runs in 34 innings over his last 5 starts, and he hasn't allowed more than 5 hits in any of those outings. The Indians are 0-8 in Fausto Carmona's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is also a very profitable 25-9 in their last 34 games as a favorite. Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line.
Dan Bebe
MIN (-142) vs DET
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For those who get the Paid Package, you'll see that one play that was originally going to be a Freebie had some very nice line movement that bumped it into the Paid Package.
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This play was the one that escaped the package, and became a Freebie. Why? Well, we missed the best line, but I still love the play.
This one opened at -120, and for those avid blog readers, you probably saw how much I liked Minnesota last night. Of course, this will happen from time to time when you wait on line moves before locking plays in. At this current price, it's not a wildly favorable deal, but it's still a winning proposition.
Armando Galarraga is a ticking time bomb, and though he's been able to put together more strong starts than bad ones, the Minnesota Twins have beat him up throughout his career (see blog for numbers).
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On top of that, the Tigers have been miserable on the road, and won yesterday, which basically means they're done winning for this road series. Okay, that's a tad bit of an exaggeration, but rarely does Detroit truly play strong baseball on the road, and they very nearly gave back what appeared to be a pretty comfortable winner, yesterday.
Minnesota is a very good home team, as well, so the odds that Detroit beats them two times in a row at new Target Field are rather steep.
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And I know what everyone is thinking, but Nick Blackburn has been a totally different pitcher at home than on the road, and he's always fared just fine against the Tigers. This line jumped 20 cents for a reason, and that reason is because the Twins should take this one handily.
Play on Minnesota.