JEFF BENTON
I’ve hit 9 of 14 freebies, and in addition to that, I’m on a 95-64-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Tuesday, we’ll lay the 1½ runs with the Braves on the run-line over the Nationals.
There’s a bit of uncertainty over who will start for the Nationals tonight, but it’s expected to be right-hander Craig Stammen, who went 1-2 with a 5.43 ERA in 12 starts with Washington before being optioned to Triple-A. Stammen is likely to be recalled in time to get the nod in this one, but regardless of who toes the rubber for the Nats, it doesn’t much matter.
That’s because the Braves – who will hand the ball to red-hot veteran Derek Lowe – are such a superior ballclub. With last night’s 5-0 win over Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals, Atlanta is now on a 32-14 overall roll, including 3-1 in the last four. Meanwhile, Washington, which got swept at lowly Baltimore over the weekend, has lost four in a row, 11 of 13 and 13 of 16.
Even more telling, the Nationals’ last six wins have come against the Pirates (3 wins), Indians (1) and Royals (2). And Strasburg was on the hill for two of those six victories. The Nats have also lost 12 of 13 – including the last seven in a row – away from D.C. (again, only road win came when Strasburg pitched).
Back to Lowe: He’s held eight of his last nine opponents to three runs or less; he’s got a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts (five runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings); and he’s 6-2 with a 3.81 ERA in eight starts at home (where Atlanta supports him with an average of 6.5 runs per game).
The Braves have 10 wins with Lowe on the mound this year, and eight have been by more than one run. Atlanta is also 22-5 in its last 27 home games, with 11 of the last 13 home victories covering the run line.
7♦ ATLANTA BRAVES -1.5
JOEL TYSON
With losses in their last pair, and 6 of 7 overall, it is time for the Twins to resurface for a win tonight at home against the Tigers.
Minnesota is still 23-14 at home, and they have won 3 of their 4 home games this season against Detroit.
The Tigers enter tonight's play at 16-23 away from home, and starter Armando Galarraga has been roughed up by the Twins. In his last 3 starts against Minnesota, the righty has allowed 14 runs in 17 innings for a 1-2 mark.
His counterpart Nick Blackburn has been lights-out at home this year, spoting a perfect 4-0 record with a 3.19 home ERA. Blackburn is also 2-0 his last 3 starts against Detroit, working 25 innings of 5 run ball.
Minny the call tonight.
5♦ MINNESOTA
JAY MCNEIL
Houston at Milwaukee
Love this play on the run line, as Milwaukee will jump all over Houston’s Brett Myers immediately to take the Astros out of this game early on. Myers is 1-5 in seven road starts on the season.
Thus, it looks like a blowout win for the Berew Crew tonight, as they hand the ball to Yovani Gallardo, who is 7-1 with a 1.78 ERA since losing his first two starts.
Gallardo comes in after tossing a five-hitter in a 5-0 victory over Minnesota on Thursday. He was extremely impressive in retiring first 16 batters while striking out a career high-tying 12 batters.
All Brewers tonight.
2♦ MILWAUKEE -1.5
BRETT ATKINS
My free winner tonight is coming on the Padres as they are at home, hosting the Rockies in the second game of their series at Petco Park..
Surprising score out of San Diego on Monday night as the Padres battled back after falling down 8-0 and made it close but eventually fell to the Rockies. Tonight, I’m going with San Diego to get the win as they won’t be shut out by Ubaldo Jimenez for the first five innings like they were on Monday.
Wade LeBlanc is on the hill for the Padres and he’s 2-3 at home with a 2.25 ERA. In his last two at home he gave up a total of two runs over 12.2 innings. He faced the Rockies on May 4 and allowed two runs in six innings of a 3-2 win.
Jason Hammel is on the mound for Colorado and he is an ugly 0-2 on the road with a 6.55 ERA. The Rockies are on slides of 1-6 as road ‘dogs, 4-7 on the road overall and 1-4 when Hammel faces a winning team on the highway.
San Diego is 7-3 as a home favorite and 4-1 when LeBlanc faces division rivals. I’ll pay the small price to go with the Padres tonight.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Bobby Maxwell
My FREE play record is at 114-99-3 and tonight I've got a comp winner for you on the Angels as they welcome the Rangers to Anaheim for a three-game set.
Here is the Angels chance to close some of the gap that separates them from the Rangers in the A.L. West standings and I’m going with Los Angeles in the opener as Joel Pineiro (7-6, 4.21 ERA) will outduel Scott Feldman (5-6, 5.32 ERA).
Pineiro has been dominant here lately, winning each of his last three outings and posting a 1.11 ERA in those three. He’s 4-2 at home with a 2.25 ERA and last time out he held the Dodgers to one run in 7.1 innings of a 2-1 victory. The Angels have won each of his last four starts and seven of his last nine. He hasn’t faced the Rangers since 2006 and while he didn’t have much success against them in the mid-2000s, he’s a different pitcher now and he’ll get the job done here tonight.
Feldman got slapped around on Thursday when he gave up five runs on 12 hits in six innings against the Pirates. He’s allowed three runs or more in nine of his last 10 starts. He faced the Angels in September in Los Angeles and gave up four runs in 3.2 innings of a 5-2 loss. In his last two trips to Los Angeles he’s given up eight runs on 15 hits in 9.2 innings.
Texas is just 3-7 in Feldman’s last 10 road starts and 2-5 when he’s a road ‘dog. The Angels are 20-8 overall, 15-6 against right-handers, 12-5 as a home favorite, 5-0 with Pineiro at home and 4-1 when he’s a chalk.
I’m going with the home team in this one as the Angels take the opener behind Pineiro.
2♦ L.A. ANGELS
Derek Mancini
Now 3 straight Free Play winners, including the Marlins last night! Also hit my 3rd straight 15 Dime winner (Reds) with my paid play (+509 Dimes L39 days)! Upping the ante tonight with a 30 Dime paid release on the Atheltics-Orioles match up - don't miss it! Back to Tuesday's Freebie...
I know gamblers refuse to believe the "red-hot" White Sox can lose two in a row to the Royals (and three straight overall) tonight, but they can and they will. You need to stop betting the White Sox like they're on fire - all runs come to an end - and it appears as though Chicago's is coming to a grinding halt.
It's all about the White Sox offense (they're pitching has been solid for the most part). They started to sputter in the final game of the Atlanta series, but were saved by tonight's starter Gavin Floyd. Then we saw some up and down play in the Cubs series, followed by an awful game at the plate last night (just 4 hits). Lerew has been decent, but he completely shut them down... If they thought he was tough, it doesn't get any easier facing Brian Bannister tonight.
Bannister went through a rough patch mid-month, but he turned things around with an excellent effort in his last one (6 scoreless at the Nationals). He's been much more effective at home, and especially lately, going 4-0 with a 3.46 ERA in his L4 starts at Kauffman. Let's also not forget, for as hot as Floyd has been of late, the last time he pitched in Kansas City, he gave up 5 runs on 10 hits in 6 innings May 16th. The public gets slaughtered in this one, but not us. Royals (Bannister) over White Sox (Floyd) Tuesday.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Chuck O'Brien
Tuesday’s complimentary selection comes from A.L. Central action, as I’ll play the White Sox over the Royals in Kansas City.
It took a little more than two months, but White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd has finally figured things out. After posting a 6.64 ERA in his first 11 starts, Floyd has been absolutely lights out in his last four outings, surrendering just three runs, 15 hits and seven walks with 32 strikeouts in 29 innings (0.93 ERA). And after allowing seven home runs in his first 11 starts, he hasn’t served up a gopher ball in his last four.
Tonight, Floyd faces an old nemesis in the Royals, who have definitely had the Maryland native’s number. In 10 career appearances (nine starts) against Kansas City, Floyd is 1-7 with a 5.53 ERA, including 0-2 with an 8.03 ERA in two games this season (11 runs allowed in 12 1/3 innings). However, I’m confident the Royals will be seeing a completely different Gavin Floyd than the one they saw twice over a 12-game stretch in May.
Besides, as bad as Floyd’s career numbers are against Kansas City, the numbers of Royals starter Brian Bannister against Chicago are worse. Bannister has faced the White Sox 14 times, and he’s 4-5 with a 7.91 ERA. He’s allowed 118 baserunners – including 16 home runs – in 71 2/3 career innings against the Sox, who are batting a robust .306 all time against Bannister.
True, Bannister is coming off a strong 1-0 win at Washington on Wednesday, scattering five hits and two walks over six innings. However, that was a day game, and here’s why that’s important: Bannister is 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA in sunshine this season … and 3-5 with a 7.66 ERA at night. That’s not a fluke; that’s a telling trend.
Speaking of trends, despite last night’s 3-1 loss to Kansas City – their second loss following a 10-game winning streak – the White Sox are still on impressive upticks of 17-6 overall, 6-1 on the road and 14-3 against right-handed starters.
4♦ CHICAGO
Stephen Nover
I am 34-15-1 with my past 50 free selections after losing with the White Sox last night against the Royals. I have one of my strongest plays of the season going tonight on a mispriced total, but for today's complementary selection I'm taking the underdog Rays on the road versus the Red Sox.
The Rays are the top road team in baseball at 24-12. This has been a road team series with the away club winning all seven meetings so far this season. Tampa Bay has won during its past four visits to Fenway Park.
That includes beating the Red Sox and John Lackey, today's Boston starter, 8-2 back in April. The Rays scored eight runs off him in just 3 1/3 innings. Lackey hasn't lost at Fenway since, but his home ERA is 5.03. He has a 4.41 ERA this month.
The Red Sox are without second baseman Dustin Pedroia, the 2008 AL MVP, who is on the disabled list with a broken foot. Boston is likely to be without catcher Victor Martinez , too. He has a broken thumb.
Rays pitcher James Shields has had some shaky starts but looked more comfortable and in control during his last start throwing seven solid innings this past Wednesday against San Diego. He had seven strikeouts in seven innings, while allowing four runs.
Shields has performed better on the road going 5-3 with a 3.49 ERA on the road compared to a 1-4 mark with a 5.58 ERA at Tropicana Field. Shields was tough against he Red Sox during his last start against them on May 25. He allowed two runs on four hits with two walks in eight innings.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Karl Garrett
G-Man smelling a pitcher's duel this evening in the Bronx.
It will be Cliff Lee against Phil Hughes, and it was just this past October when Lee was responsible for the Phillies 2 wins in the World Series, as he thoroughly dominated the Yankees in the 2 games he started.
Lee has won his last pair of starts coming into this contest - both in complete game fashion - and has allowed just 1 run in those 18 innings worked. For the year, Lee's ERA is a miniscule 2.39. G-Man doesn't see much offense from the Yankees in this one.
Same can be said for the Seattle offense, as Phil Hughes is a whopping 10-1 for the year with a 3.17 ERA. Hughes has been a little more yielding of late, but with Seattle on a 2-7-1 under run their last 10 games, G-Man has a feeling Hughes will hunker down and match pitches with Lee in a game that will feature very little scoring.
Take the under in the Bronx tonight.
3♦ UNDER
Michael Cannon
I’m now 71-57 with my last 128 free plays.
Take the Reds for the home win over the Phillies.
Cincy has won six of seven and will send rookie Mike Leake to the mound.
Leake is 5-1 with a 2.92 ERA on the year and he should be well rested for tonight’s outing. That’s because the Reds pushed his start back two days so he could comply with a season innings limit.
The Phillies have lost two of three and will start Joe Blanton, who is 1-3 with a 9.27 ERA on the road this year.
The Reds have too much going for them tonight offensively and with the pitching matchup to let this one get away.
Take the Reds for the home win.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Chris Jordan
Looks like a solid chance for the National League Central-leading Reds to keep the winning momentum going, as Mike Leake is up tonight to make his first appearance against the Phils. Cincinnati has won six of its last seven games, while Leake is an impressive 3-1 at home to go along with his 3.67 ERA.
Leake will get plenty of run support in taking on Joe Blanton, who is 1-3 on the highway this season and has a sky-high 9.27 ERA. I know the Philly right-hander has won his last two starts, but those wins also came against American League foes – the Indians and Twins. It’s back to the senior circuit tonight, and outside of this last stint in Interleague play, he hasn’t been all that, going 1-4 overall.
Not a good sign for him, as the Reds have been hitting the ball well lately, especially Scott Rolen, who leads the team with 17 home runs and 53 RBI and has gone 8 for 23 with three home runs and eight RBI over the last seven games. He stroked the long ball yesterday in a 7-3 win in the opener of this three-game set, and generally does well against his former team, going 10 for 22 with two homers and eight RBIs in six meetings.
I’m playing Cincinnati here.
4♦ CINCINNATI