SPORTS ADVISORS
Tampa Bay (43-35) at Toronto (41-37)
The surging Rays send right-hander Matt Garza (5-5, 3.61 ERA) to the mound at Rogers Centre for the second game of their series with the division rival Blue Jays, who will counter with righty Scott Richmond (6-4, 3.68).
Tampa Bay posted a 4-1 victory in Monday night’s opener, with Carl Crawford welcoming Toronto starter Roy Halladay back from the DL with a two-run homer in the third inning. The Rays have won eight of their last nine games, including the last six in a row, and are on a 20-8 run overall. However, Tampa is still just 5-10 in its last 15 road games.
Toronto is on a 16-8 run at home against teams with a losing road record, but the Jays have won just two of their last 12 division contests.
This is the first series of the year between these rivals. Last year, Tampa Bay went 11-7 against Toronto, though the Jays earned a three-game home sweep in their final meeting in early September.
Tampa has lost four of its last six with Garza on the hill, but the 25-year-old was sharp last Wednesday against the World Series champion Phillies in a 7-1 home victory. Garza allowed just one run on three hits and three walks, with seven strikeouts, in eight innings. Garza is 3-3 with a solid 1.99 ERA in six career starts against Toronto, but he’s 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA in six road starts this season, and the Rays have lost in his last five outings on the highway.
Toronto has won eight of 12 games this year with Richmond starting, and the 29-year-old is coming off a good effort at home against Cincinnati last Wednesday. Richmond allowed two runs on two hits and two walks in seven innings of an 8-2 victory. Richmond is 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) at home this year, and he is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his lone career appearance against Tampa, allowing all three runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-2 home loss last July.
The under for Tampa Bay is on rolls of 5-1 on the road, 14-5-1 against right-handers, 6-0 overall with Garza starting and 6-0 in Garza’s last six starts on the highway. Likewise, the under for Toronto is on streaks of 7-2-1 against winning teams, 11-4 in division play, 8-2 behind Richmond at Rogers Centre and 4-1 with Richmond facing A.L. East foes.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has hit in 24 of the last 34 clashes and is on further runs of 15-6 in Toronto and 4-1 with Garza starting against the Jays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and UNDER
L.A. Angels (42-32) at Texas (40-35)
The Angels look to strengthen their grip on first place in the A.L. West when they trot out left-hander Joe Saunders (8-4, 3.66 ERA) to face right-hander Scott Feldman (5-2, 4.06) and the rival Rangers in Game 2 of their series at the Ballpark in Arlington.
Los Angeles earned a 5-2 win Monday in the series opener, on the strength of a four-run sixth inning and a solid six innings from rookie starter Sean O’Sullivan, who allowed two runs (both on solo homers) on six hits and two walks, with five strikeouts. The Halos have won six in row and 13 of their last 16 games, and they are on a 7-0 run on the road.
Texas is 3-8 in its last 11 outings, which helped Los Angeles overtake the Rangers for the division lead. Texas is in an 0-6 rut against winning teams, but the Rangers carry positive streaks of 17-5 in division contests and 8-3 at home against southpaws.
The Rangers are still on a 5-2 run in this rivalry, including a three-game sweep at home in mid-May in the only other series this year between the two teams. The Angels have lost in Saunders’ last four road starts against Texas.
Los Angeles has won three in a row behind Saunders, after dropping his previous three starts. Last Wednesday in an 11-3 home win over Colorado, he allowed just one run (a solo homer) on four hits and a walk in six innings, with six strikeouts. Saunders is 4-2 with a 4.57 ERA in seven road starts this year, with one of those losses coming at Texas, where he got shelled for seven runs on eight hits and a walk in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-8 loss on May 15.
Saunders is 3-4 with a 5.48 ERA in eight career starts against the Rangers. On the positive side, with Saunders starting, L.A. is on runs of 54-24 overall, 7-1 in division play, 8-3 on the road and 23-10 against winning teams.
Texas had lost three in row backing Feldman before coming up with a 9-8 win at Arizona last Thursday, with the righty allowing three runs on four hits and a walk in six innings. Feldman is 1-1 with a 3.83 ERA in eight appearances (six starts) at home this year, and he’s 1-3 with a 5.35 ERA in 14 appearances (five starts) against Los Angeles. On May 17, he threw six shutout innings in a 3-0 home win over the Angels but got a no-decision.
The Rangers are 8-3 in Feldman’s last 11 starts, but they are on slides behind Feldman of 4-12 at home and 3-8 against winning teams.
The over for Los Angeles is on streaks of 11-6-1 overall, 5-0 with Saunders taking the ball and 6-2 with Saunders facing the Rangers. On the flip side, the under for Texas is on rolls of 44-17-1 overall, 5-0 at home against lefties, 6-1 in the A.L. West, 24-6-1 at home, 27-11 with Feldman starting and 7-0 behind Feldman in Arlington.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has hit in five of the last six meetings in Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
San Francisco at St. Louis
The Giants look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 0-6 in its last 6 games as a home favorite. San Francisco is the underdog pick (+180) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+180).
Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.142; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.678
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); Under
Game 953-954: Arizona at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.223; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 13.948
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Under
Game 955-956: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 15.570; Florida (West) 14.866
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+155); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.141; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.652
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Over
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.086; Milwaukee (Burns) 14.896
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under
Game 961-962: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Johnson) 15.226; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.164
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+180); Under
Game 963-964: Houston at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hampton) 15.486; San Diego (Banks) 14.586
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-120); Over
Game 965-966: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 16.035; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.433
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+165); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 16.015; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.760
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-250); Over
Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 15.114; Cleveland (Lee) 14.372
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+180); Under
Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.229; Toronto (Richmond) 15.694
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Under
Game 973-974: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Smoltz) 15.956; Baltimore (Hill) 14.690
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 15.838; Texas (Feldman) 15.013
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Over
Game 977-978: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.147; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.473
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Over
Game 979-980: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 15.309; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.140
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Under
WNBA
Washington at San Antonio
The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Washington team that is coming off a loss in Chicago on Saturday and is just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing with two days rest. San Antonio is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Siver Stars favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6).
Game 601-602: Minnesota at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 106.344; Atlanta 112.201
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 168 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 172 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Washington at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.965; San Antonio 113.439
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 150 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 143
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Over
Game 605-606: Sacramento at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 108.256; Chicago 110.173
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 139 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7 1/2); Under
Bob Harvey
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Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Play: Under 10
The Yankees are rolling. They’ve won five straight overall and look to extend their current streak while hoping to maintain their dominance of the Seattle Mariners.
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The Yanks have been crushing the baseball against the Mariners hitting .348 while averaging 9.0 runs during an eight-game winning streak at home versus Seattle. This will be the teams' first meeting at the new Yankee Stadium aka Coors Field of the East.
New York has also dominated the Mariners on the mound during this streak. The Yankees have posted a 2.75 ERA in their last eight meetings and with Joba Chamberlain on the hill the Bronx Bombers are hopeful of another strong performance.This will be Joba’s first career appearance against Seattle.
The Mariners will counter with reliever turned starter Brendan Morrow who is 0-3 this season and will be making his fourth start following 16 relief appearances. His ERA is an astronomical 5.64.
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It’s doubtful that Seattle’s woeful offense will be able to take advantage of the new Yankee Stadium launching pad. The Mariners rank 29th in runs scored and 20th in homeruns. Seattle is middle of the pack with a .260 team batting average and their lack of punch is evident in a 44-29-2 record to the UNDER.
And while the Yanks rank in the top three in all of baseball in homeruns, runs per game and OPG, it usually takes some help from the other side to cash the OVER. The Yankees are just 6-4 to the UNDER in their last ten outings.
Red Dog Sports
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Boston at Baltimore
Play over 10
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John Smoltz pitched poorly last week and faces Hill, who has an ERA of 7.20. The Orioles have 35 overs, 16 unders and 5 pushes in their last 56 on Tuesdays. They have gone over in 6 of 8 vs. the AL East. Baltimore was shut out last night so look for them to bounce back and score a few runs in a game that goes over the total.
Vernon Croy
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New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: New York Mets
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are actually getting great value with the Mets who have the superior pitcher on the mound Tuesday night. The Mets are 12-3 in Johan Santana's (9-5, 3.08 ERA) last 15 starts when pitching with 4 days rest and they are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts against an NL Central team. Santana has pitched solid over 8 career starts against the Milwaukee Brewers with an ERA of just 2.96 and the Mets are 16-6 in Santana's last 22 starts as a favorite. Santana faced the Brewers once this season and he allowed just 5 hits and 0 earned runs over 7.0 innings while striking out 7 batters. The Brewers are just 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and the Mets are now 5-1 in their last 6 road games against the Brewers. Take the New York Mets for Tuesday night.
Cajun Sports
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies and Braves open a three-game set at the Ted on Tuesday night with Joe Blanton scheduled to get the ball for the Phillies and Derek Lowe for the Braves. Philadelphia should be excited about facing NL teams again after suffering through another interleague portion of their season. The Phillies went 6-12 W/L against the American League this year and 4-11 W/L during the regular season last year for a 10-23 W/L combined record versus the AL. If we look at just their NL record for the same time period we see they are a league best 121-81 W/L versus National League teams during that same time frame. The Ted has been very good to the Phillies with them taking all nine games versus the Braves here last season and winning fourteen of the last seventeen visits to ATL overall. Philadelphia even with their poor record during interleague play were able to win their last two games versus the Blue Jays and had won ten of their last thirteen NL games before the latest edition of interleague play began. Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton is 4-4 W/L on the year with an ERA of 5.06 although over his last three trips to the bump his ERA is a solid 3.20. In his last start versus the Braves earlier this season they tagged him for six runs on eight hits over eight innings of work for a 6 to 2 loss. We expect Blanton’s fortunes to change tonight as our Pitcher Efficiency Index projects a Quality Start for Blanton and a projected win over the Braves at the Ted on Tuesday night. The Braves Derek Lowe will take the hill with his 7-6 W/L record and ERA of 4.53. Lowe is currently on a three-game losing skid with an ERA of 12.34 over that span. In his last outing versus the Yankees he was pounded for eleven hits and eight runs in only three innings of an 11 to 7 loss. Our projection from our Pitcher Efficiency Index is not quite as bright for Lowe in this situation even though he has been solid against the Phillies in the past we expect him to struggle here. Lowe is 4-12 W/L (-12.4) in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51 to 54 percent since 1997. Philadelphia is 10-1 W/L (+10.5) in road games vs. a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season and 10-1 W/L (+9.5) in road games vs. teams averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game this season. The Phillies are 17-8 W/L (+10.6) on the road and 12-6 W/L (+8.5) as a road underdog of +150 or less this season. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Phillies win by 0.77 runs over the Braves tonight and our Math Model also favors the Phillies with a projected win of 1.3 runs. The combination of technical, situational and fundamental factors point to a Phillies win at the Ted so back the visitor here as they continue to build on their most recent winning streak with a game one win over the Braves.
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Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 3 Atlanta Braves 2
Rocketman Sports
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LAA Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
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Two teams here with similar records as LA Angels are now 42-32 this year and Texas is 40-35 on the season. Texas is 13-3 this year against division opponents. Texas is 38-24 last 3 years when playing on Tuesday. LA Angels bullpen has a 5.49 ERA overall this year and a 5.76 ERA on the road this season. Scott Feldman is 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA in all starts this year and has a 2.57 ERA at home this season. Texas has won 3 out of 4 against the Angels this year. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Craig Trapp
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LAA Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: LAA Angels
Betting Trends
-LAA are 8-3 in Saunders' last 11 road starts.
-Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 road games.
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-Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
-Rangers are 1-8 in Feldmans last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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Pretty hard to imagine that Texas is the favored team after such poor play recently (3-7 last 10 games)!! If that was not enough LAA are now on a 6 game winning streak where they have just been playing great. Today Saunders goes for LAA and he has been much better in his last 4 games going 2-0 with a 3.64 ERA!! Feldman goes for TEX today and although his record looks good don't be fooled. He has not won a games since June 3rd and his ERA has been over 4.5 in that stretch. TEX is usually known for having one of the best offenses but lately they can't score runs. In the last 10 they are only averaging 3.8 runs per game!! Conversely LAA have been scoring in bunches averaging over 7 runs per game in the last 10 played. Love the extra juice today from a hotter team with better pitching and hitting! SCORE LAA 7 - TEX 3
Marc Lawrence
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Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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When the Angels send right hander Joe Saunders to the mound against the Rangers in Arlington tonight they will do so knowing he has cashed in 10 of his last 14 road team starts. He is also 8-4 in his last twelve team starts in June. With the Rangers mired in a hitting slump, we'll stay with the steady serves of Saunders and the Halos here this evening.
MTi Sports
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San Francisco Giants at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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The Cardinals are 15-0 as a 140+ favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a 4+ run loss ? with each of the last ten wins by multiple runs. Consider playing the Cardinals on the run-line.
Karl Garrett
Arizona -135 at CINCINNATI
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Monday comp play winner on San Francisco in shutout fashion.
For Tuesday, G-Man going to lay some more road wood with the Arizona Diamondbacks to snap their 5 game losing streak with Dan Haren on the mound.
Haren may be just 6-5 on the year, but his ERA is among the best in all of the bigs, at 2.25.
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His counterpart Bronson Arroyo sports a season ERA well over 5, and his last 3 starts have seen an alarming 14 runs over his last 16 innings of work for a 1-2 mark.
Arroyo owns a season win over Arizona, but he did allow 5 runs in 7 innings of work in that one, so it is not like he was fooling anyone in that lineup.
The good old "due theory" is in effect on the D-Backs tonight, and the G-Man is on them minus the small road lay.
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Take 'Zona.
1♦ ARIZONA
Bobby Maxwell
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Arizona at CINCINNATI +125
Going with the Reds at home for tonight's FREE play on the diamond as they host the Diamondbacks in the first of this three-game series.
The Reds have been a light-hitting team all season, but over the last two games, these guys have pounded out 28 hits and 15 runs Saturday and Sunday agaisnt the Indians. Tonight, they actually face a team that is even lighter hitting than them and we're going to play Cincinnati in this one.
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Each of Cincinnati's last three wins have been big, getting 43 hits in those three wins and 22 runs.
Bronson Arroyo (8-6, 5.54 ERA) is on the mound for the Reds and this guy has had a roller-coaster season, with his last start being a downer as he allowed seven runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings of an 8-2 loss at Toronto.
Cincinnati swept three games in Arizona in May as the Reds hit .333 and outscored Arizona 26-9 in the three-game set. The Reds have won 11 of the last 13 meetings with the D'Backs and they even got a win off tonight's starter, Dan Haren (6-5, 2.25 ERA).
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Haren gave up three runs and six hits in seven innings of a 3-1 loss on May 12 and he is now just 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in five games agaisnt Arizona.
Arizona has dropped five in a row, and lost a slugfest to the Angels on Sunday, falling 12-8. They actually got some offense in that one but still weren't able to pull it off as their bullpen couldnt' do anything right.
Love the plus-money with the Reds in this one. Play Cincinnati.
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2♦ CINCINNATI
Dominic Fazzini
Arizona -130 at CINCINNATI
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Dan Haren (6-5, 2.25 ERA) has been one of the few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this season.
The Arizona right-hander leads the National League in ERA, but hasn’t gotten much support from his offense. That again was the case in his last start Wednesday, when he allowed two runs on four hits in seven innings against Texas but lost 2-1. In Haren’s previous five starts, he was 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA.
Haren will try to help Arizona snap a season-high five-game losing streak as he faces the Reds today. Haren gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings of a 3-1 loss to Cincinnati on May 12, falling to 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in five games (four starts) against the team.
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Right-hander Bronson Arroyo (8-6, 5.54) takes the mound for the Reds, and he has struggled this month, going 1-3 with a 6.51 ERA in five starts. Arroyo got battered for seven runs and eight hits, including three homers, in 3 2/3 innings Wednesday in an 8-2 loss at Toronto.
He hasn’t fared very well vs. the Diamondbacks in his career, going 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA in seven starts. And even in that lone win he wasn’t sharp, allowing five runs and 10 hits, including three homers, in seven innings on May 11.
Arizona might be struggling, but it has actually played better away from home this year, so leaving Phoenix could be the best thing for the team. And the way Haren has been throwing, I’ll gladly take him against Arroyo any day. Take the Diamondbacks.
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3♦ ARIZONA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston -130 at BALTIMORE
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Monday comp play winner on the White Sox to make it a 17-9 comp play run the last 26 days.
For Tuesday, we have to lay the road wood with the Red Sox, as Boston just isn't going to lose to the slumping Orioles.
John Smoltz did absorb one of Boston's two losses in their last ten games, but we expect him to iron some wrinkles out in this start against a Baltimore team that has lost their last pair, and five of their last seven.
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With last night's win, Boston is a perfect 5-0 against Baltimore this year, and 17-6 overall since last year against their AL East rival.
Baltimore starter Rich Hill is coming off a 4 inning, 6 run shell-job in a loss at Florida, and in two home starts this year sports an ERA over 12.
Lay it with Boston on the road this Tuesday night.
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3♦ BOSTON
John Ryan
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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they host the Cubs slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-20 making 24.8 units since 1997. Play against road teams that are poor hitting teams batting <=.250 facing an average NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 54-26 making 33.3 units since 2003. Play against any team after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and in a game involving two marginal losing teams sporting a win percentage of 46 to 49%. Pirates are also a perfect 6-0 (+6.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. Pirates starter Ohlendorf has never faced the Cubs and that is a big advantage for him and the Pirates. It is always far different facing a pitcher in a live situation than analyzing video and scouting tendencies. His slider is by far his best pitch and he throws that 21% of the time. Batters are hitting just 103 on that pitch. Moreover, he will throw slider 38% of the time when ahead in the count. Look for first pitch strikes from him and then to dictate the game from there on out. Take the Pirates.