DUNKEL INDEX
Texas at Tampa Bay
The Rangers look to build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Texas is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100)
Game 985-986: Texas at Tampa Bay (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lee) 16.306; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.109
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Under
NHL
Atlanta at Los Angeles
The Thrashers look to take advantage of a Los Angeles team that is 0-4 in its last 4 games as a home favorite from -150 to -200. Atlanta is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Thrashers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+170)
Game 51-52: Colorado at Detroit (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.920; Detroit 13.277
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-220); Over
Game 53-54: Atlanta at Los Angeles (10:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.927; Los Angeles 10.259
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+170); Under
LT Profits
Rangers / Rays Over 6½
While we get that Cliff Lee of the Texas Rangers may be the best pitcher in baseball when he is healthy, which he is now, and that David Price is the ace of the Tampa Bay Rays, Price has not fared well vs. Texas over his brief career, and a low posted total like this requires both pitchers to be on top of their games.
The bookmakers have installed a total of 6½ for this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘over’ at -115.
Price was the losing pitcher in Game 1 of this series, as he allowed five runs (four earned) on nine hits in 6.2 innings. Remarkably, those five runs were more runs than he allowed in any home start over the entire regular season, when he went 9-3 at “The Trop” with a 2.15 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 17 home starts covering 121.1 innings.
Now, we would be willing to grant Price a mulligan if not for the fact that Game 1 marked the third time in five career starts vs. the Rangers that he allowed five runs or more, allowing five and six earned runs respectively on the other two occasions, and all of those starts have come since the beginning of the 2009 season.
Sure, it is scary to play an ‘over’ when Cliff Lee is starting, as he is now entirely over the back problems that hindered his August performances. However, if Price continues to struggle with the Texas lineup, then the Rays may not need to do much offensively to push this game ‘over’ the tiny total, and the Tampa Bay bats did come alive in the last two games in Texas, so we look for an improved offensive effort compared to the first two games here in St. Petersburg.
It may not be easy, but look for this contest to sneak ‘over’ late.
JIM FEIST
ATLANTA THRASHERS /LOS ANGELES KINGS
PLAY: ATLANTA THRASHERS
The Kings flamed out down the stretch last season and are overvalued here. LA has had a tough scheduling start to the season, opening on the road at Vancouver and Calgary, tallying only 3 goals in those two games. Atlanta is 1-1 on the season despite being a dog twice, winning as a +145 dog, 4-2. The value is all with the dog in this one, Play the Atlanta Thrashers.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas +1.06 over TAMPA BAY
Back to Tampa Bay for the decider and that might not be a good thing for the home side. Cliff Lee won Game 1 with a 10/0 K/BB against the low-contact, walk-dependent Rays. No guarantee of a similar follow-up, but this mark imitates Lee’s outstanding control and suggests he’s in a good position to be successful once again, particularly given the Ray’s offensive track record at home where they average more than a full run per game less than on the road. Another reason to expect success from Lee: His track record in controlling the running game – only four SB allowed in only nine attempts for the season – gives him an edge in handling one of the Rays’ critical offensive tools. David Price struggled in Game One due partially to some bad luck – nine of the 21 balls in play he allowed went for hits, coming to a 43% hit rate. Price’s mistakes were crushed, as suggested by the two HR and two doubles he allowed. But to put into perspective how uncharacteristic his Game One performance was, consider again the fact that Price was 9-2 at home, with a 1.96 ERA for the season. He was dominant in 13 of 16 outings, with three runs the most he’d allowed in any home game all season. We all saw how C.J. Wilson and Cliff Lee dominated this Rays line-up by throwing strikes and keeping the ball down and Lee is a master at both. The Rays have momentum after taking two in Texas but that can change in an instant and it says here that the Rays once again, have very little chance of success against Lee. Play: Texas +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Rangers/Rays OVER 6.5
I'm taking the over tonight, going against what I believe to be a small number. After seeing just 6 total runs scored in each of the first 2 games of this series, these two teams combined for 9 and 7 runs respectively in Games 3 and 4. We saw 37 total hits the last two games after seeing just 27 in the first 2. The over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these 2 clubs, and considering how well each team has scored against southpaw starters, one has to like its chances with the over tonight. The Rays are averaging 5.0 runs/game against lefty starters and the Rangers are averaging 4.5. And this may just be the clincher: Tampa Bay is 8-0 to the over the last 3 seasons when playing at home following 2 straight games with 5 or more extra base hits. Considering how well Texas hit the ball in Tampa Bay in Games 1 and 2, and with the way Tampa's bats came alive in Game 3 and 4, I like this one to find its way over a small number. Bet the Over.
Tony George
TAM / TEX Under 6.5
3 out of 4 in this series have went under and with Cliff Lee and David Price on the hill, with everything on the line, expect a pitchers duel tonight. Premium clients have the side play winner here, but the under worth a half unit play here as neither team lighting up the scoreboard! Also both bullpens solid!
Denver Money
ATL (+165) vs LOS
This is a great spot to back a road team tonight. Although I think Los Angeles will improve over the year they don't look 100% right now. They have failed to convert on power play chances this season and if they can't score on those tonight they could lose their home opener. Atlanta has played very good against the Kings including the last 3 games. I like the way Atlanta has looked this year despite opening the season 1-1-0. They will have their work cut out for them against Jonathan Quick, but I will take the road dog tonight as I think they can get the job done.
Doug Upstone
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Texas Rangers
The situation for tonight’s big game favors Texas because of the experience of Cliff Lee in a big game. In his last three starts at Tropicana Field the left-hander has stuck out 30 Tampa Bay batters. As everyone knows the road team has won all four games in this series and Texas is 19-11 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season. Though I really like David Price as a pitcher, he’s 0-3 with 6.92 ERA against the Rangers. I’ll side with Texas as Free Play.