Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 19,2010

Rocketman

Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver is 24-13 last 3 years after a non-conference game. Vancouver is 9-3 SU and ATS overall vs Minnesota the past 3 years. Canucks are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Canucks are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Canucks are 14-5 in their last 19 vs. Northwest. Canucks are 43-21 in their last 64 vs. a team with a losing record. Wild are 4-9 in their last 13 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Wild are 8-18 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Wild are 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog. Wild are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. Wild are 2-8 in their last 10 overall. Wild are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Wild are 1-5 in their last 6 Tuesday games. Wild are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Wild are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. We'll recommend a small play on Vancouver tonight!

LT Profits

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants +105

If you look at just the year-date-date numbers for Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies and Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants, the two starters for Game 3 of the NLCS at AT&T Park, you might think you are looking at the same pitcher! That in itself is usually a good enough reason to take a home underdog.

The bookmakers have set the betting odds on the Giants at +105 today in Game 3 of the NLCS.

If you combine regular season and playoffs, both pitchers have identical 13-11 records personally and both have identical team records of 19-15 in games they start. The difference in their key numbers is also negligible, as Cain has a 3.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while Hamels has a 2.94 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

They even have similar numbers in their last three starts, where they are both 1-1 with a team record of 1-2, Cain has a 3.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and Hamels has a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

So the numbers for the staring pitchers simply do not justify the Phillies being road favorites here. Furthermore, if you look at the bullpen numbers and at the recent history of the starters vs. their respective opponent today, it is the home standing Giants that appear to have the edge.

The Giants had one of the best bullpens in the National League this season, as they have a 3.04 bullpen ERA for the whole year, and they have actually improved that figure to a phenomenal 1.85 over the last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ pen has a rather erratic 3.95 ERA for the year, and it has gotten slightly worse, sitting at 4.01 in the last 10 games.

As for the head-to-head, Hamels had more trouble with this Giants’ lineup this season than with just about any team in the league, as he allowed nine earned runs on 16 hits and five walks in just 11 innings over two starts against them. Meanwhile, Cain posted a Quality Start in his only outing vs. the Phillies this year, and he has three such outings in his last four career starts against them.

Finally, San Francisco is batting a robust .304 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, while Philadelphia is struggling at .238 vs. right-handers over this same timeframe. All things considered, the Giants look to offer nice value as a home underdog in this spot.

Ben Burns

Vancouver Canucks @ Minnesota Wild
PICK: Minnesota Wild

This is a big game for the Wild. They're already off a to a slow start to the season and could badly use a victory. Additionally, Vancouver is a division rival and figures to be a team that the Wild will be 'chasing' all season. Knowing that they'll have to take on the Canucks again in a few days, at Vancouver, the Wild would really like to "hold serve" here at home.

While the Wild had some trouble at Vancouver last season, they did easily beat the Canucks in both 2010 meetings here at the Xcel Energy Center. Vancouver's Roberto Luongo took the loss in both games, giving up five goals in each start. Minnesota won by scores of 6-2 and 5-2.

With an O/U line of 5.5, note that the Canucks are a money-burning 29-39 (-14.6) the last 68 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. During the same stretch, the Wild were a profitable 27-13 (+11.6) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Consider backing the highly motivated home underdog.

Jim Feist

Hurricanes vs. Sharks
Play: Under 5½

Carolina is one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, averaging 2 goals per contest. They are on a 2-1 run under the total and this is their 3rd straight road game. San Jose is 2-1 under the total for the season, scoring 2, 3, and 2 goals. Don't look for much offense in this one, Play Carolina/San Jose Under the total.

EZWINNERS

San Jose Sharks -210

In uncharacteristic fashion, San Jose not only lost on their home ice but blew a two goal lead against the Thrashers, but I like them to get on track against a road wear Hurricanes team.
Starting out in Helsinki was the easy part of Carolina's early season schedule. The Hurricanes built some positive momentum by sweeping a pair of games from the Wild in Finland, but they've found it to be tough since getting back to the U.S. and embarking on a five game road trip that currently has them in California. Carolina will have traveled more than 15,000 miles and through 11 time zones before playing its first home game on October 27th against the reigning Presidents' Trophy winner and Southeast Division champion, Washington and I expect the Sharks to feast on those tired legs tonight. Play on San Jose.

Tom Freese

Rangers at Yankees
Prediction: Over

New York starter A.J.Burnett has been lit up in his last 2 starts allowing 15 runs in his last 8.1 innings of work. The Yankees are 35-16-4 OVER their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 13-6 OVER in game 4 of a series and they are 19-6-1 OVER their last 26 games when their opponent allowed 2 runs or less. Texas starter Tommy Hunter is 13-9-1 OVER in his team starts this year. The Rangers are are 17-4-2 OVER in Game 4 of a series. Texas is 4-1-3 OVER their last 8 games on grass and they are 5-1-1 OVER their last 7 games with the Yankees.

Bobby Maxwell

Philadelphia (-110) at SAN FRANCISCO

I'm on the diamond for a FREE winner with the Phillies as they will take a 2-1 lead on the Giants behind the left arm or Cole Hamels.

For my comp winner, can’t go against the Phillies today as they send postseason ace Cole Hamels (13-11, 2.94 ERA) to the mound for Game 3 in San Francisco. Hamels looked great in the NLDS against Cincinnati and he’s certainly been through many postseason wars before, so today in San Francisco won’t faze him.

Hamels threw a complete-game, five-hit shutout in Cincinnati in the first round of the playoffs, and he was outstanding down the stretch for these Phillies. He has allowed a grand total of one run in his last 24.2 innings on the road, and overall the Phillies are 6-2 in his last eight starts. He made one start in San Francisco this season and gave up four runs in six innings of a 7-6 Philadelphia victory, striking out 10 and walking four. The Phillies are 6-2 the last eight times he’s seen the Giants.

On the hill for the Giants is right-hander Matt Cain (13-11, 3.05 ERA) who hasn’t pitched in 10 days when he threw in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Braves. He gave up one unearned run in 6.2 innings but the Braves ended up rallying for a win, 5-4. His previous home start to that was in the final series of the season when the Padres got him for six runs in four innings of a 6-4 victory.

Cain saw the Phillies just once this season and gave up five runs, only two earned, in six innings of an 8-2 loss in Philadelphia. He’s made five starts against them in his career and the Giants are just 1-4.

Philadelphia comes in on several positive streaks, including 22-5 on the road, 53-20 overall, 37-14 against the N.L. West, 37-16 against right-handers, 5-1 when Hamels is a road favorite, 6-2 with him on the road and 5-1 when he faces a winning team. San Francisco is just 5-11 at home against teams with winning road marks.

I like the Phillies and the experience they bring to this crucial Game 3. Play Philadelphia behind Hamels today.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA

Chuck O'Brien

Philadelphia at SAN FRANCISCO

For today’s complimentary selection, I’ll play Game 3 of the Phillies-Giants series UNDER the total.

We’ve seen two outstanding pitching matchups so far in this series, and today’s is as good as any with the Giants’ Matt Cain (13-11, 3.05 ERA) facing the Phillies’ Cole Hamels (13-11, 2.94 ERA). Both guys were near perfect in their first postseason starts, as Hamels pitched a complete-game five-hitter against the Reds, striking out nine in a 2-0 series-clinching road win and Cain surrendered just one unearned run over 6 2/3 innings in Game 2 against Atlanta at home.

Both guys have been filthy since the All-Star break, too. Hamels is 6-4 with a 2.04 ERA in 16 starts, allowing just 24 runs in 105 2/3 innings with opponents batting barely .200 against him. Cain has a 2.73 ERA in 16 starts since the break, holding 14 of those 16 foes to three earned runs or fewer.

Neither team is in much of a groove offensively – Philly is hitting .245 in its last 10 games; the Giants are batting .227 in their last 10 – while both pitching staffs have been lights out of late (over the last 10 contests the Phillies have a 2.25 ERA while the Giants have a 2.47 ERA).

The under is 21-8 in Hamels’ last 29 starts overall, 20-6 in his last 26 as a favorite and 9-2 in his last 11 road outings, and the team has stayed low in six straight road games with the total set at 6½ or lower. San Francisco carries “under” trends of 9-3-1 overall, 13-4 at home, 9-1-2 as a home ‘dog, 4-0 after a loss and 7-1 following a day off.

4♦ UNDER

Derek Mancini

Philadelphia at SAN FRANCISCO (+105)

I've got a small, but solid Free Play going on the Giants this afternoon, as they take care of business at home in Game 3. In a series that's featured some excellent pitching, we get more of the same today, as Hamels and Cain match up at AT&T Park. Both offenses will be hard-pressed to get much of anything done, but there's a couple strong reasons to back the home team here.

Neither pitcher has been particularly effective (in their careers) against their respective opponent today, but if there's one number that stands out above all the rest, its Cain's numbers at AT&T Park this season, going 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA (and a WHIP 1.03). Hamels remains pretty consistent no matter where he pitched, but there's no question that Cain is at his most effective pitching in front of the home fans.

From an offensive standpoint, neither team has impressed, but I'd be more worried if I were a Phillies-backer. Giants took care of business all year without a real offense, specializing in winning close low-scoring affairs. Gamblers have been underestimating San Fran all season, and here we find the public doing it again! Of all the Phillies, only Howard boasts solid numbers at AT&T Park, so this match up is a lot closer than people think it is. Giants have been great at home (50-33), and I expect they'll protect their house this afternoon. Take San Francisco (Cain) over Philadelphia (Hamels) Tuesday.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Joel Tyson

Texas at N.Y. YANKEES

Free play tonight, and I am taking the over between the Rangers and the Yankees.

Tommy Hunter and A.J. Burnett will toe the slab, and it is no secret that Burnett has struggled this season for the Pinstripers. Burnett's season ERA is over 5, and the lineup he is facing tonight has plated 20 runs already in the first 3 games of this series.

The series stands at 2-0-1 over the total through the first 3 games as well. That puts the last 7 meetings between the teams dating back to the regular season at 5-1-1 over the total.

After facing Cliff Lee last night, I feel sure the Yankees bats will welcome seeing Tommy Hunter on the mound tonight.

Game 4 of this best-of-seven set heads over the total.

3♦ OVER

Karl Garrett

Texas at N.Y. YANKEES

Free play winner last night on the Texas Rangers from the G-Man.

Staying in the American League again tonight, and heading over the total with the Rangers and Yankees.

Texas has brought the thunder to this series, plating 20 runs already through their first 3 games, and with Yankee starter A.J. Burnett sporting a season ERA over 5, the chances look strong for Texas to pile up some more runs tonight.

The Yankees attack has been quieted, and certainly no shame in getting shut down by the great Cliff Lee last night, but the G-Man gets the feeling that Tommy Hunter's pitches are going to look like beach ball compared to the peas Lee was twirling last night.

The teams have gone 5-1-1 over the total in their last 7 meetings dating back to the regular season, and I will back the percentages and play the over in tonight's 4th game.

2♦ OVER

Steve Merril

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees

New York trails 2-1 in this best of seven series after Cliff Lee had another dominating performance last night. Lee has been one of the best pitchers in postseason history, so it is understandable that the Yankees were shutout and had only two hits all night. New York is still an extremely talented offensive club and they should bounce back tonight as they are still 53-30 at home this season where they average 6.2 runs per nine innings. Rangers’ starter Tommy Hunter has a weak 6.75 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in his two career starts versus the Yankees and Curtis Granderson (4-6), Robinson Cano (2-5), Lance Berkman (2-4), Derek Jeter (2-3), Mark Teixeira (1-3), and Francisco Cervelli (1-1) have all hit Hunter well. New York turns to A.J. Burnett who was left off the ALDS roster and should have plenty of motivation tonight. Burnett has been one of the best pitchers in the league over the past decade and Curt Schilling was actually quoted as saying that Burnett had the best stuff of any pitcher during the past ten years. The knock on Burnett has always been his focus and lack of effort. This should be less of an issue tonight in the playoffs, especially since Burnett is on a mission to rebound from his regular season struggles.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Rangers/Yankees OVER 9.5

Both of these teams have crushed righty starters all season. The Rangers are hitting .278 and scoring 5.0 runs per game against righty starters. The Yankees are hitting .272 and scoring 5.4. I expect both teams to be able to put the bat on the ball against the likes of Hunter and Burnett tonight. Hunter is carrying an ERA of 6.75 in 2 career starts against the Yankees. He's also been susceptible on the road this season, where his ERA is 4.48. Burnett is carrying an ERA of 5.26 on the season, and he enters with an ERA of 7.94 over his last 3 starts. The Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. It is 8-3 in Hunter's last 11 starts overall. It is also 7-2-1 in the Yankees' last 10 playoff games. I expect New York to be aggressive at the plate tonight after getting shut down by Cliff Lee last night. Plus, the Rangers should be able to plate some runs against Burnett, who has struggled all season. Bet the Over.

Jack Jones

Rangers vs. Yankees
Pick Over 9.5

The Rangers and Yankees are each throwing their worst starters out to the wolves in Game 4. This has the making of the highest-scoring game yet in this series when Tommy Hunter squares off against A.J. Burnett. Hunter is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in 2 career starts vs. New York. Hunter has posted a 4.48 ERA in 11 road starts this season. Burnett has to be lacking in confidence right now after Joe Girardi took him out of the rotation in their opening series against the Twins.

Burnett has been a completely different pitcher this season from the one he was a year ago when the Yankees won the World Series. The righty is 10-5 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in 33 starts this season, and 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has had 16 days of rest in between starts, which certainly could have him coming out tonight very rusty. The Yankees are scoring 5.8 RPG at home this season, while the Rangers are putting up 5.0 RPG against righty starters. New York is 32-15 to the OVER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. The OVER is 7-2-1 in Yankees last 10 games overall. Roll with the OVER in Game 4 Tuesday.