Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on NY Yankees -146
I'm not backing the Yankees because I think Burnett will shut the Rangers down. I'm backing them because this is more or less a must-win game, they are on their home field, and I like their chances against Hunter. New York was shut out by Lee last night. We're talking about a team that hits .280 and scores 5.8 runs per game at home. I believe they'll take their frustrations out on Hunter, who has a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against New York. The Yankees weren't favored against Lee last night, but they are tonight. And that's significant when you consider that they are 14-2 in their last 16 playoff games as a favorite. Burnett does have a 3.45 career ERA against Texas, and his arm should be extremely fresh having not pitched since October 2. Take the Yankees.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia –1.10 over SAN FRANCISCO
Cole Hamels is coming off a brilliant Game-3 clincher in the NLDS: a complete-game shutout in Cincinnati in which he allowed only five hits. The performance was an extension of September, when Hamels went 4-1 in five starts with a 1.93 ERA. Hamels started 15 games on the road this year and posted an ERA of 2.96 with a BAA of .227. Everything this guy does is top notch, from holding runners to getting ahead in the count to striking out batters and to not walking many. The Giants went just 12-12 against southpaws at home this season and they’re facing one of the top three in the game. Take away Cody Ross, and the Giants are 10 for 61 (.164) with one extra-base hit and 19 strikeouts and it’s hard to imagine them having any success against Hamels. The Phillies aren’t hitting much better but they’re very streaky and they’re coming off a six-run outburst in game two. When you watch each team take its turn at the plate, you can’t argue that the Phillie bats instill about 100 times more fear than the Giants hitters. You have Rollins, Utley, Werth, Polanco, Howard and Victorino to deal with and when the Giants come up you see Renteria, Sanchez, Burrell, Fontenot, Sandoval and nobody instills fear. Matt Cain is a decent pitcher but the Phillies went 15-7 on the road vs righthanders and they also have had success against Cain. In fact, against Cain, Utley is 7 for 15 (.467) with three jacks, Rollins is 6 for 10 and five of those hits were for extra bases and Howard has two homers in 10 AB’s. As long as the Phillies don’t let Cody Ross beat them they’re in very good shape for this one with a much stronger hitting line-up and an edge in both talent and playoff experience on the bump. Play: Philadelphia –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Texas +1.36 over N.Y. YANKEES
One of the most interesting things about the timing of games in this ALCS is that both teams are all but forced to send out their fourth starters. A.J. Burnett will go for the Yankees and Tommy Hunter for the Rangers. The Yankees would have liked an extra night off, because they apparently tried real, real hard to figure out a way to keep Burnett off the mound, especially after a Wednesday throwing session/simulated start that went about as well as a Lindsay Lohan rehab, with Burnett all over the place and even hitting two teammates. But pushing CC Sabathia to Game Four on short rest meant also pushing Phil Hughes on short rest, and on balance, the Yanks decided to avoid that issue. So Burnett will pitch. And Yankee fans are concerned. They have reason. Burnett looked fairly terrible this year, with a 5.26 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP and a 10-15 record. He gave up 1.2 HR/9. He didn’t win a game in June. Or August. In the second half, he was 3-8, 5.95/1.56, with an .858 OPS against. The enduring image of his season was Burnett trudging off the mound after 2.1 innings at Toronto with seven runs on the board. Burnett lacks finesse or a strong pitching IQ. Any success he has enjoyed has been based on overpowering the opposition but he can no longer do that. Throw in the pressure of this game and the immense booing that Burnett will endure should things go bad early and what you get is a fragile Burnett with no confidence in a heap of trouble. Tommy Hunter is a risk too but not as much. Hunter is a low-K, low-walk, pitch-to-contact nibbler who throws as many cutters and curves as fastballs and hits bats with pretty much all of them. He also allowed 1.5 HR/9 this season. That said, Hunter has decent career numbers against the New Yorkers and his road ERA was nearly a run-and-a-half lower than his home ERA. A five-run eighth inning in the opener is all that stands between the Yankees and actually being down three-games-to-none, so thoroughly are they being outplayed to the tune of 26 innings to one. Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada look old, Mark Teixeira has gone hitless in the ALCS and Alex Rodriguez hasn’t been able to deliver anything. In other words, the Yanks have more issues than giving the ball to Burnett. Play: Texas +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.64 over WASHINGTON
The Bruins are coming off a horrible year in which every game was a struggle to not only win but to score goals also. They ended up making the playoffs by three points, defeated Buffalo in the first round and then blew a 3-0 series lead to the Flyers and a 3-0 game 7 lead in the second round. There has been very little talk about the Bruins either now or prior to the season and you should always beware of teams nobody has noticed. Thing is, the Bruins may be the least flawed team in the NHL. They have the best goaltending duo in the business with Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask. They added Nathan Horton in the off-season, a pure talent and point producer that never got the recognition he deserved playing in Florida. They have a rock solid defense and they have goal scorers besides Horton. The Bruins have allowed just one goal over its last two games while scoring seven. The Caps have reeled off four in a row after opening night loss in Atlanta but they’ve really looked very average in doing so. They beat New Jersey, Ottawa, the Islanders and Nashville but were outplayed in Nashville (an OT win) and were somewhat fortunate to beat both the Islanders (a late third period goal) and Ottawa (in OT). The Caps are squeaking by some very average squads and the B’s are simply not among that group. This is a top-tier and undervalued guest that has looked very strong out of the gate and they're very undervalued right now. That won't last much longer. Play: Boston 1.64 (Risking 2 units).