Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday October, 2

Chris ElliottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston vs. NY Yankees
Pick: NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Boston Red Sox (69-91) take on the New York Yankees (93-67) in this matchup at the Bronx.
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Ace Jon Lester will toe the rubber for the Red Sox looking to close out his first losing season in a 7 year career. He has a poor record of 9-14 with a 4.94 ERA. He has lost 3 straight starts while posting an ERA of 4.50 with 2 QS. The Red Sox have won 6 of Lester's last 7 starts in New York including 2 this season.
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Rookie David Phelps will counter for the Yankees with a record of 4-4 with an excellent 3.34 ERA. The Yankees have won 3 of his last 4 starts including his last 2 straight. He is 1-1 vs the Red Sox this season with an ERA of 2.92.
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The Red Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 overall including 6 straight losses. The Yankees are 14-6 in their last 20 games and 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
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The Yankees lead the season series 11-5, they have a magic number of 2 for clinching the AL East and are a half game back of the Rangers for home field advantage throughout the AL Championship. The Red Sox are on the road playing for nothing more than pride. The Yankees won Monday 10-2 and I expect another victory Tuesday. Take the Yankees to win.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: San Diego PadresFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee is an excellent offensive park which will help the San Diego attack. The Padres are 11-1 in their last 12 against the National League Central and go with top prospect Casey Kelly, who has walked 10 in 29 innings with 26 strikeouts. Milwaukee has never faced him before and the Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Milwaukee goes with a young arm of their own in Tyler Thornburg, who has a 6.30 ERA his last three starts, so grab the dog. Play the Padres.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers came through as Monday's free play. As long as they still have life, I'll continue to follow them as they've now won six straight. Not a bad matchup with Capuano/Zito, so right back with the Dodgers.

Ross KingFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Yankees 72-38 versus teams with a losing record in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons.Boston 18-35 versus teams with a winning record in the second half of the season and 57-78 the last 3 seasons.Take NY Yankees as your freeplay winner.

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play:Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay will send "Big Game" James Shields to the mound tonight against Baltimore. Shields is 15-9 with a 3.62 ERA in 32 starts. The righty has allowed just 6 runs and 18 hits in his last three starts. Shields has not had good starts against Baltimore this season, but both of them came on the road. The Rays’ pitcher is 8-4 with a 3.42 ERA at home in 16 starts. Baltimore is hitting right around .222 in dome games this season. Endy Chavez (2-9), JJ Hardy (2-8), Mark Reynolds (1-7) and Matt Wieters (5-21) all have had their problems with Shields. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been great at home blowing only 4 saves in 29 chances. Miguel Gonzalez is 8-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 14 starts for Baltimore. Gonzalez has faced the Rays three times this season giving up 9 runs and 15 hits in those outings. The righty will be facing one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Rays. They are putting up almost 5 runs per game in their last eight games and they are 45-34 at home. They have lost just twice since September 18th as they are getting it done with timely hitting and great pitching. We like the Rays to notch another solid home win in this game on Tuesday night.

Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers -154
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The Giants are 3-8 in Zito's last 11 starts vs. the Dodgers and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts vs. them. The Dodgers have won 6 in a row and are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. They are also 4-1 in Capuano's last 5 starts. I expect LA to show up here no matter what happens in St. Louis. Take the Dodgers.

Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals -122
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The Cards can clinch a playoff berth with a win, and I like their chances with Carpenter on the mound. He's been solid in both of his starts, and it's hard to ignore the long term numbers. The Cardinals are 60-24 in his last 84 home starts, 42-13 in his last 55 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 12-3 in his last 15 starts vs. the Reds. The Reds are just 22-49 in their last 71 meetings in St. Louis.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs -110
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The Cubs get the call here because of the way Volstad has pitched inside Wrigley of late. The Cubs are 5-2 in his last 7 starts overall and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. He has held the opposition to 3 runs or fewer in 3 of his last 4 home starts.
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Houston's Norris threw a gem his last time out, but that was at home. He has given up 5 runs in each of his last 2 road starts. The Astros are 4-17 in his last 21 starts, 6-20 in his last 26 road starts and 0-9 in his last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
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The Cubs are 11-5 in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 8-3 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. They have won 7 of their last 10 versus Houston and 10 of their last 13 at home in the matchup. Take the Cubs.

Wunderdog

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians
Pick: Chicago White Sox +110

The White Sox saw their playoffs hopes disappear last night, but the Cleveland Indians saw theirs vanish back in June. The Tribe is a woeful 17-44 in their last 61 games, and basically aren’t competitive against anyone. Justin Masterson has been brutal for Cleveland, pitching to a 5.03 ERA. His last 18 starts have allowed 4 or more runs in 10 of them. It has been a great comeback season for Jake Peavy who has topped the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2007, when he won 19 games for the Padres. He has put together a 3.37 ERA in the process. The White Sox are now 21-8 in their last 29 when facing an opponent that allowed 5 or more runs in their previous game. Cleveland is just 2-10 in their last 12 at home vs. a victorious team. Play the White Sox in this one.

Nelly

Kansas City Royals - over Detroit Tigers

The Tigers finally clinched the AL Central last night and there could be a letdown factor on Tuesday. The Royals have not closed the season well with losses in eight of the last nine games but starter Jeremy Guthrie continues to post great late season numbers. Kansas City has won nine of his last 10 starts and he has allowed more than two runs in just two of those starts. Since joining the Royals his ERA is only 3.18, less than half of what it was in Colorado for the first part of the season. In Kansas City Guthrie owns a 2.33 ERA with Kansas City going 6-2. The Tigers have won seven of the last eight but all that was to get to last night and the division title. The Tigers now need to worry about getting rested and ready for the postseason. Doug Fister has marginal road numbers for the year and while he set a strikeout record in his last start against this Royals lineup he has been pretty inconsistent down the stretch. Fister won't be pushed deep into this game and the Detroit bullpen owns a 6.25 ERA in the last 10 games.

Hollywood Sports

Rangers at Athletics
Prediction: Under

The Under is 5-1-1 in the Rangers' (93-67) last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. They send out Harrison for this contest who is 18-10 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP this season. The lefty has been more effective on the road where he sports a 3.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .247 opponent's batting average as compared to his 3.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .271 opponent's batting average at home. The Under is 7-3-1 in the Rangers' last 11 road games with Harrison pitching as the favorite. The Under is also 10-3-1 in Texas' last 14 games with Harrison facing a team from the AL West. Oakland (92-68) has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 10-4-1 in the A's last 15 home games as an underdog. They counter with Blackley who is 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this year. Blackley has been better at home where he sports a 3.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .216 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 5.37 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .275 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. With Oakland needing a win to clinch a wild card spot, look for these team trends to continue in this pennant race contest.

Ray Monohan

Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati will head into Tuesday night’s game with Mat Latos on the mound. The right-hander is 13-4 this season with a 3.52 ERA. He has given-up just one earned run on nine hits in his last 15 innings pitched. Latos is just 1-4 against the Cardinals with a 10.24 ERA. St. Louis is expected to go with Chris Carpenter has its starter for this game. This will be just his third start of the season after a lengthy stay on the DL. The right-hander only gave up a pair of runs in each of his previous two starts but came away with a no decision and a loss. He is 14-4 lifetime against the Reds with an ERA of 2.48. The Reds are 4-1 in Latos’ last five starts on the road but the Cardinals are 20-9 in Carpenter’s last 29 starts on a Tuesday. Stick with that winning formula one last time as St. Louis racks-up another win against its NL Central rivals this Tuesday night.

Joe Gavazzi

Texas -145

Kudos to Oakland! who has clinched a Wild Card and trails Texas by 1 game for the division lead. They have done so with recent runs of 64-34, 16-8, 7-2, and 4-0. Their hopes for the division title end tonight. Blackley has lasted 2 or less innings in each of his last 2 starts including allowing 5 hits and 5 runs in just 1 IP in his previous outing. Clearly, something is amiss. The Rangers own the tie breaker with NYY for best record in the league and home field. They are also the best team in MLB in being resilient. In fact, they are 44-22/loss. Harrison has been outstanding the entire season and stands 6 -1 with a 3.33 ERA in 9 appearances vs. the As.

Bryan Leonard

St. Louis -127

Chris Carpenter has had a rough season. Dealing with injuries, Carpenter was able to make it back for the postseason push and he will make his third start of the season on Tuesday night with a chance to pitch the Cardinals into the playoffs. A win from the Birds and they're in. The Cardinals are peaking at the right time, winners of 13 of their last 16 games. This is a team hungry to defend their World Series crown and they're playing like it. The pressure won't bother Carpenter at all, as he is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 postseason starts, so he knows how to pitch in big games.

Mat Latos takes the mound for the Reds and he has not fared well against the Cardinals in his career. In six starts against the Reds' chief NL Central foe, Latos is 1-4 with a 10.24 ERA. In three starts at Busch Stadium, Latos is 0-3 with an 18.82 ERA, allowing 23 runs in 11 innings. The Reds have bobbed and weaved to a 5-5 record over their last 10 games, a team just looking towards the playoffs. In their last 27 games, the Reds have scored just 80 runs.

With a veteran like Carpenter looking to punch his team's ticket to the postseason appears to be a strong play.