Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals -108
The Detroit Tigers just clinched the AL Central division with a win over the Kansas City Royals last night. They have nothing to play for in these final two regular season games, so I look for the Tigers to let down here Tuesday in Game 2 of this series with the Royals.
The Royals want to send their home fans out on a high note, and I certainly don't mind backing Jeremy Guthrie at this time of year. Guthrie (4-3, 3.18) hasn't lost since falling to Texas on Aug. 3, going 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA over his last 10 starts. The Royals are 9-1 in those 10 contests.
Detroit's Doug Fister is just 6-22 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 since 1997. The Tigers are 3-12 in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. The Royals are 6-0 in Guthrie's last 6 home starts. Bet Kansas City Tuesday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +114 over WASHINGTON
It’s been a long road for the Washington Nationals since moving from Montreal seven years ago. The Nats had consecutive 100-loss seasons and many last place finishes so last night’s clinching of the NL East was worthy of a big celebration. After a night in which the players post game T-shirts were soaked with champagne and the victory celebration lasted well into the night, it now becomes a great situational fade.
The Nats are setting their rotation for the playoffs so Tom Gorzelanny will get this meaningless start. Had they not clinched last night, Gio Gonzalez would have started. Gorzelanny has been in the pen all season. Three innings was his longest outing this season. He’s put up decent numbers as a reliever but a starting job is one he’s never been able to keep.
B.J. Rosenberg has 21 K’s in 21 innings since his call-up. He’s made 21 relief appearances and now gets a chance to start. His fastball tops off at 96 MPH. He isn’t afraid to work inside and he has shown the ability to spot it with precision. Rosenberg’s slider is nasty and he uses it as his strikeout pitch. He’ll now face a Washington team that really has no interest in this game and is likely to rest many of its starters.
MIAMI +149 over N.Y. Mets
R.A. Dickey is coming off his 20th win and the celebration that comes with that achievement. There are endless interviews, emails, telephone calls and congratulatory texts that he’s had to field. The result is a huge letdown spot here. It’s equivalent to a pitcher’s first game out after a no-hitter. It becomes anti-climactic.
Expect the Marlins to be a little extra motivated here, as the Mets have announced that Dickey will go for his 21st win on four days rest. If New York was involved in a pennant race and this was a crucial game, the Marlins could understand and accept that decision. Being 23 games out with two left and going with a guy on short rest is an insult to the Fish. They’ll do their best to respond appropriately.
Jacob Turner remains a work-in-progress but has pitched well since his trade here from Detroit. He had a 14/1 K/BB in his first 17 IP with Miami and he’s posted a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts covering 18 innings. When all is equal, Dickey has an edge on the hill over Turner. However, the Mets’ choice to start Dickey makes this is a strong situational play against a team that has dropped three in a row and one that can’t wait for this season to conclude.
Minnesota +144 over TORONTO
The Twins offer up too much value against such a raw rookie here to pass up on.
Chad Jenkins has made two starts lasting just 8.2 innings to go along with some relief appearances totalling 18.1 innings for a combined 27 innings over 10 games. The Blue Jays have lost all 10 games he’s appeared in. He’s also allowed 14 runs and walked 10 batters over his brief stay. The strikeout rate is surely a disappointment, as it has been on a downward trend since signing as a first round pick in the ’09 draft. He’s a fastball pitcher with weak secondary stuff and major league hitters feast off guys like him.
Anthony Swarzak is a little more seasoned with 252 career innings. He’s certainly not going to dazzle many and he’s had trouble keeping his starting job at this level but what he brings is great control, a groundball bias profile and a more experience than his counterpart. This one is all about taking back a hefty tag against a minor league pitcher.
Houston -101 over CHICAGO
The Cubs lost their 100th last night to these Astros. They couldn’t avoid the embarrassing triple digit loss number and now they have nothing to play for tonight. Playing behind Chris Volstad isn’t going to motivate them much either.
Volstad’s numbers, both surface and beneath, are about as ugly as it gets. He has 43 walks and 55 K’s in 109 innings. He has a 6.64 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP and three wins in 20 starts. His xERA is 6.76, his ERA at home is 6.27 and his ERA over his past four starts is 11.22. He only has a job because the Cubbies are obligated to pay him 2.6M a year and for that money, they may as well ship him out there for one last start.
The Astros are on their NL farewell tour. They will begin next season as an AL club and they’re still giving it their all with three wins in their last four games. With all the upheaval in Houston, it's easy to forget there are a few major-league level players already on the team. Bud Norris is one of them. Norris has 161 K’s in 162 frames. His xERA is a full run lower than his actual ERA and he’s coming off a very good September. He also threw a gem his last start out against the Cardinals. Norris is a pitcher to watch in 2013 and certainly offers up more value as a pooch than Volstad does as the favorite.
Scott Delaney
On a 16-6 Complimentary Pick run, and for the second-straight night I am going to play the Los Angeles Dodgers at home against the San Francisco Giants, as the hunt for the Wild Card continues. The Giants have wrapped up the National League West, but the Dodgers are still two games back for the second Wild Card spot, and it's all or nothing at this point.
I know it won't come easy, as the final series of the year comes against the team's most bitter rival, but for the value I'm looking at, with a team that has won six straight games, I have to believe I'm on the right side tonight. The Dodgers are playing with a sense of urgency, and though it may be too little, too late, I'm not going to be scared away.
I know the Dodgers have lost five of their last seven against the Giants, but I believe being swept in the teams' most recent three-game series at Chavez Ravine in late August could spark L.A. for a bit of revenge.
Take the Dodgers on the Run Line in a blowout tonight.
3♦ LOS ANGELES
Chuck O'Brien
My free winner for Tuesdat night is going to be on the Oakland Athletics, for a second straight night, as I once again take them against the Texas Rangers. Last night I laid a cheap price, tonight I'm taking the plus-price. After last night's series-opening win, the Athletics bring a four-game win streak into Game 2 of their final series of the season, against these Rangers.
As I said last night, something tells me the four-game win streak the A's are on is an indicator of a red-hot team ready for the postseason. And what's amazing about this series, is two months ago, a month ago, even two weeks ago, there was no way I'd say the American League West could come down to this three-game set. But with two games to go, a changing of the guard could be on hand in the West.
While the the Rangers clinched a postseason berth with an 8-7 win over the Angels two nights back, the A's can still win the division with a sweep. Last night's win secured the Athletics' first postseason berth in six years, and now you best believe they're fired up for the bigger prize.
Another win tonight and the A's know darned well how big the final game of the series - and season - will be tomorrow night.
I'll play the A's.
2♦ OAKLAND
Craig Davis
80-66 is my free play run.
Tuesday's free play is the Yankees on the Run Line.
They face the rival Boston Red Sox, looking to extend their win streak to three games and stretch their lead in the AL East to possibly two games... which would guarantee the AL East crown again.
They enter tonight's game with a one-game lead over the Orioles, who lost last night, 5-3, in Tampa.
David Phelps (4-4, 3.34) takes the mound for Yankees in a return to the starting rotation from the bullpen where he served the last two weeks. He was solid in his last start before going to the pen... allowing only one run in 6 2/3 innings, earning a no-decision for his efforts.
On the other side for the hated-nation, Jon Lester (9-14, 4.94) looks to snap a three-start losing streak (and it's been bad, too) as he gets the start for Boston. His last outing vs. the Bronx Bombers wasn't great but wasn't bad... just average. Back in early September he allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings of work to earn a (yep, you guessed it) no decison.
The Yanks can relax tomorrow if they can take care of business tonight and the O's lose again. Free play of the night on the Yankees run line as they roll by at least four.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Jeff Benton
8-2 free play run coming into Tuesday.
Your Tuesday freebie is the St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis is looking to clinch the second Wild Card spot, and a win tonight against the suddenly anemic Reds would do just that.
Dusty Baker returned last night just in time for another Reds setback, as Cincy dropped the series opener by a 4-2 count. That puts the Reds are just 3-3 their last six games. While that mark is not terrible, the fact they have been held to just one or two runs in five of those six games with a .220 batting average certainly is not where you would like to be when you are looking to clinch the best record in the National League.
Mat Latos will look to improve on his 13-4 mark, but the fact he is 1-4 in six starts against the Cardinals with an over 10 ERA does not bode well for the Red Legs this Tuesday on the road.
Chris Carpenter is making just his third start back since his shoulder surgery, but his 12-1 career mark with a 2.28 ERA against Cincinnati certainly gives his team reason for optimism as they look to get back to the playoffs and defend their World Series title.
St. Louis has won 11 of their last 14 overall, and I am riding them tonight to bump that mark to 12 of 15 with a playoff-clinching win tonight.
4♦ ST. LOUIS
Chris Jordan
This write up may seem weird, but you'll get my point by the end of the analysis of my free pick, which is the Miami Marlins over the New York Mets.
But check this out, the Mets are handing the ball to R.A. Dickey, who will step the hill tonight, with a chance to become the first New York Met to surpass 20 wins in 27 years. The right-hander has been incredible dominant throughout the season, despite a couple of dry patches.
He is 20-6 with a 2.69 ERA on the year. This has been quite a season, a career-best, since the 37-year-old had never won more than 11 games in a season. Now he's even in the running for the National League Cy Young Award.
On top of that, he would become the first knuckleballer with at least 21 wins since Atlanta's Phil Niekro and Houston's Joe Niekro achieved the feat back in 1979.
Now, with so much riding on this decision tonight, this looks like the dream-come-true matchup to get it done, as he's compiled a 10-2 mark with a 2.75 ERA against these Marlins during his career. H's also 8-0 with a 0.92 ERA over his last eight meetings with the Marlins, including five wins against them this season.
So with all that being said, doesn't it sound like the absolute most perfect write-up for the Mets tonight?
Well, here's the thing, I had to stand back and ask myself, with all those intangibles, why isn't he laying more to the lowly Marlins? Thus, with the Mets on a three-game slide, I'm looking at the message the oddsmakers are trying to send and will side with the home underdog.
2♦ MIAMI
Matt Rivers
28-15 is my free play run.
Tonight I will look for a low-scoring game between the Giants and Dodgers.
Los Angeles will know whether they have a shot at the wild card spot when they are on field tonight, as the Reds-Cards game will be into the later innings by the time L.A. hits the field.
Regardless, I don't see many runs being scored here, as these teams have combined to stay Under the total in each of the last three games they have played versus each other. The Under is now 6-1-1 the past eight series meetings.
Barry Zito is rolling right now, four straight winning starts with a 2.19 ERA along the way.
Chris Capuano has struggled down the stretch, but his ERA at Dodger Stadium is still a respectable 3.10.
Have to look for the runs to be limited as the Giants and Dodgers hold Under the total on Tuesday night.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO-LOS ANGELES UNDER