SPORTS ADVISORS
N.Y. Yankees (5-1) at L.A. Angels (4-2)
After a thrilling 11-inning victory Monday, the Angels look to even this best-of-7 American League Championship series when they give the ball to newcomer Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.99) in Game 4 at Angel Stadium, while the Yankees counter with ace CC Sabathia (21-8, 3.24 ERA).
Los Angeles rallied from 3-0, sixth-inning deficit in Game 3 and prevailed 5-4 in 11 innings thanks to Jeff Mathis’ two-out double that scored Howie Kendrick from first base, handing New York its first defeat of this postseason. These teams have played 24 innings the last two games, following New York’s 4-3 victory in 13 innings Saturday.
New York – which is back in the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007 – is still on impressive runs of 46-18 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday, 11-4 in the fourth game of a series and 8-3 against left-handed starters. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re now 1-7 in their last eight road playoff contests.
Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall, seven of eight at home, 37 of 52 against southpaw starters and 14 of 19 at home against lefties. However, L.A. has dropped 12 of its last 17 playoff games, including six of nine at home, and it snapped a six-game ALCS losing skid with Monday’s win. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
The Yankees had won four straight in this rivalry prior to blowing Monday’s game, and they’re now 7-6 in 13 meetings this year. However, New York has lost five of six this year in Anaheim and is just 8-21 in their last 29 games at Angel Stadium. In fact, the host is 17-4 in the last 21 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-3 this season).
These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Sabathia struggled in his first two postseason appearances in 2007-08, going 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five starts with Cleveland and Milwaukee. However, he’s been brilliant in two playoff outings in pinstripes, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in beating the Twins 7-2 and the Angels 4-1, both in Game 1 at home. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total 14 2/3 innings, walking just one while striking out 15.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss), and Sabathia has delivered 12 consecutive quality starts. Even with the bad outing at Tampa Bay, New York is 13-1 in Sabathia’s last 14 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-0 against the A.L. West, 9-1 against winning clubs and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts. Also, with the dominating eight-inning effort in Game 1 on Friday, he’s now 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career outings versus the Angels, including 1-2 with a 4.22 ERA in three games this year and 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts at Angel Stadium.
Kazmir got roughed up a bit in Game 3 of the ALDS in Boston on Oct. 11, allowing five runs on five hits in six innings, but the Angels rallied for a series-clinching 7-6 victory to improve to 5-1 in Kazmir’s last six starts (2-1 at home). Prior to the outing against the Red Sox, Kazmir had gone 2-2 with 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts after being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, with opponents batting just .212 against the left-hander in those six games.
Kazmir is 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three home starts with Los Angeles, but the one loss came against the Yankees on Sept. 23. In that game, Kazmir suffered a 3-2 setback, allowing all three runs on six hits in six innings. Despite that result, the Houston native, who faced New York often with the Rays, is 6-5 with a sparkling 2.67 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against the Yanks. Finally, including five starts with the Rays during their World Series run last year, Kazmir is now 1-1 with a 4.83 ERA in postseason play.
New York is on “under” runs of 15-6-1 overall, 8-3 in playoff road games, 5-1-1 in playoff games overall, 5-2 in ALCS action, 6-2-1 against lefty starters and 16-5-1 after a victory. However, the over is 11-1 in Sabathia’s last 12 outings on the highway and 7-1-1 in his last nine versus the A.L. West.
Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-17-1 overall, 4-2 at home, 16-6 against southpaws (7-1 last eight at home against lefties), 9-4 in ALCS games, 5-2 against A.L. East teams, 7-1-1 on Tuesday and 6-1 with Kazmir on the bump
In this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall (2-1 in this ALCS), but the over is 15-5 in the last 20 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 3 barely hurdling the 8½-run posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL
NY Yankees at LA Angels
The Yankees look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-4 loss and build on their 7-0 record in C.C. Sabathia's last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. New York is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135)
Game 901-902: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.888; LA Angels 16.553
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Under
NHL
Atlanta at Montreal
The Thrashers look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 0-6 in its last 6 home games. Atlanta is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Thrashers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110)
Game 51-52: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 13.607; Pittsburgh 12.766
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+180); Over
Game 53-54: Atlanta at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 12.812; Montreal 11.361
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Over
Game 55-56: Columbus at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.766; Calgary 12.044
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-145); Under
ALEX SMART
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames(5-2-1) enter into this tilt against the Columbus Blue Jackets (5-1) well rested and primed and ready to put an end their opponents 3 game win streak. It must be noted that the Flames are 8-1 in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
The Jackets are a negative 2-7-1 in its last 10 visits to Pengrowth Saddledome, including 0-1-1 last season, and once again look to be the wrong side in this spot. The Flames Jarome Iginla has faired particularly well vs Columbus scoring 12 goals and 12 assists in 16 home games in this series, and another big effort, will for me at least, not come as a big surprise.
Im betting on the Flames power play , that ranks among leagues best with a 34.8% conversion rate to once again shine and be the difference maker vs a Jackets side that historically speaking has never done well on the road as is evident by a 92-225-15 record in their last 332 road games .
Final notes & Key Trends: The Flames are a perfect 7-0 ATS L/7 vs top tier defensive teams like the Jackets that are allowing 2.4 or less goals per game winning SU by an average of 1.5 GPG.
Play on the Calgary Flames
JIM FEIST
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Calgary Flames
Play: Under 5½
Columbus is off to a great start under coach Ken Hitchcock because of its defense, allowing 2 goals per game. Raffi Torres broke a tie with a power-play goal late in the second period and Rick Nash added a short-handed goal on Saturday to lead the Columbus Blue Jackets to their third win in a row, a 4-1 victory over the Los Angeles Kings. They've played 3 road games and gave up 6 total goals in those contests, including a shutout their last road game. They like to slow the pace down and focus on defense, with one of the weakest offenses in the NHL, but a dynamite defense. Calgary has allowed just 5 goals the last 2 games. Look for a defensive duel, play the Blue Jackets/Flames Under the total.
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. ANGELS
Pitching has dominated much of the ALCS thus far, but the offenses are starting to assert themselves.
It took 11 innings Monday, but Game 3 went over the total of 8 1/2, and I expect even more runs to be scored today.
Yankees ace CC Sabathia is pitching on three days' rest, and he won't be counted on to throw 113 pitches as he did Friday. And the Angels should be more relaxed at the plate following their walk-off win Monday.
New York hit four homers in Game 3, but all of them were solo shots. I expect them to go deep again today, and Scott Kazmir is bound to walk a batter or two that is going to score.
The teams have played over the total in 15 of the last 20 games in Anaheim, and Sabathia's last 12 outings on the road have went over the number 11 times. Take the over in tonight's game.
3♦ OVER
Jr Tips
Yankees at Angels
The New York Yankees and their ace CC Sabathia look to regain control of the best-of-seven American League championship series tonight in Anaheim for Game 4. Solo homers by Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon gave the Yankees a 3-0 fifth-inning lead in Monday afternoon's Game 3, but Los Angeles clawed back to win 5-4 in 11 innings and trim New York's series advantage to 2-1.While the Angels snapped their six-game ALCS losing streak, New York suffered its first defeat of this postseason after sweeping Minnesota in three games in a division series. Girardi will give the ball to Sabathia who will be pitching on three days' rest after the left-hander threw 113 pitches in Friday's 4-1 Game 1 victory, allowing one run and four hits over eight innings. Sabathia, who is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in two starts this postseason is 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career starts against the Angels. The Angeles will look to even the series with left-hander Scott Kazmir who makes his first start since Oct. 11th, Game 3 of the Angels' division series against Boston when he yielded five runs and five hits over six innings, but did not receive a decision in the 7-6 win. Acquired from the Rays on Aug. 28, Kazmir went 2-2 with a 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts for Los Angeles.and is 6-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees, including a 3-2 loss Sept. 23rd when he yielded three runs in six innings. Alex Rodriguez has four home runs and a career-best nine RBIs this postseason but is 3 for 24 with no home runs lifetime versus Kazmir although Yankees 1st basemen Mark Teixeira is 7 for 11 with four doubles in his career against Kazmir. After going 1 for 7 and leaving eight runners on base in Saturday's loss, Angels designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero went 2 for 4 on Monday, including a game-tying, two-run homer in the sixth while Jorge Posada's game-tying solo shot in the eighth Monday was his second of this postseason, tying a playoff career high while the Angels Kendrick was a double shy of the cycle Monday, and is 4 for 10 in three home playoff games this postseason. Key hitters for both teams are coming around although the Yankees Sabathia has been lights out on the mound. Sabathia will give the Yankees at least 7 innings and the hot Yankeee hitters will give him enough run support to get the win. The Yankee bats are hot as they had four solo homers yesterday, that power will continue but with runners on the basepads which will spell trouble for the Angels.
TAKE NYY -140
LT Profits
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames
Two of the hotter teams in the NHL square off tonight when the 5-1 Columbus Blue Jackets visit the 5-2-1 Calgary Flames.
The Flames have become a far cry from the dump-and-chase teams of recent years, as they have finally conformed to the new NHL rules. As a result, the Over is an amazing 7-1 in all Calgary games this season. The good news is that they are among the league leaders offensively at 3.60 goals per game. Unfortunately, the flip side is that they are allowing 3.50 goals per contest, as the normally reliable Mikka Kiprusoff is facing many more shots than he is accustomed to.
Now the Blue Jackets are one again getting great goaltending from Steve Mason, but they do have the scoring punch necessary to match Calgary if necessary, and as great as Mason and the Columbus defense has been, we just do not see any team shutting down the Flames offense right now in their own rink, where they are averaging a robust 4.00 goals per game. In fact, the Jackets surrendered five and four goals respectively in their last two visits to the Saddledome last season.
We look for an instant replay tonight, resulting in yet another Over.
Pick: Blue Jackets/Flames Over 5.5
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
Yesterday's Game Three just made it OVER the posted total, and that is factoring in a whopping 6 combined home runs hit in the ball game!
We believe the warmer weather in Orange County has helped the hitters out, and we are going to see another OVER in Game Four tonight in Anaheim.
Sure, CC Sabathia and Scott Kazmir are both capable of going out there and pitching lights-out ball, but Sabathia is working on three-days rest, and did get touched up by Los Angeles during the regular season in his two starts against them.
Kazmir was shelled for 5 runs in 6 innings in his playoff start at Boston the other week, so he could be vunerable to a few runs this evening as well.
4 of the 6 meetings between the teams this year in LA have eclipsed the posted price, and we like tonight's game to also eclipse the posted price.
Play on the OVER.
2♦ OVER
John Ryan
St. Louis Blues vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: St. Louis Blues
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on St. Louis as they face the Penguins set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 84-65 making 42 units since 1996. Play against any team against the money line after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games and playing with 2 days rest. Andy Murray is a solid 41-32 against the money line (+21.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games as the coach of St. Louis. Here again this simple angle reflects just how powerful the dog is and how it can make money over time. In the case of my plays the cast of systems, angles, and matchup analysis serve to reinforce the AiS grading. I nailed my 1st 10* Versus TV Titan Game of the Month with San Jose destroying the Rangers 7-3. I have now posted a 9-4 record w/13 dogs and made 37.49 units. Join me another incredible play featuring a system that is a perfect 19-0 over the past 3 seasons + a perfect 7-0 angle + more.
Tom Freese
Atlanta Thrashers at Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: Atlanta Thrashers
Atlanta is 8-1 their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 10-4 off a a win. The Thrashers are 7-2 vs. Northeast Division teams and they are 8-2 when their opponent scored 2 or less goals in their last game. Montreal is 3-13 vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 7-19 their last 26 games overall. The Canadiens are 0-6 their last 6 home games and they are 7-20 after scoring 2 or less goals in their last game. PLAY ON ATLANTA +
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
Going to keep this one short-and-sweet. Take the OVER in Anaheim tonight.
I thought for sure these teams would stay LOW yesterday afternoon simply based on the travel schedule, but now that the teams have had a few hours to get their body clocks on pacific time, I will look for the runs to add up to another OVER tonight.
Yesterday New York hit 4 homers, while Los Angeles hit a pair of home runs, and the game just squeezed OVER the total.
4 of the 6 meetings this year in LA have played HIGH, and you have to expect this one to play HIGH as well, as Scott Kazmir's playoff start in Boston left a lot to be desired.
As for CC Sabathia, he is working on 3-days rest, and that could mean he may not be as stingy as he was in Game One of this series on Friday.
I am going OVER the total in Game Four.
1♦ OVER