Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 8

Jim Feist

NHL NEW YORK RANGERS VS SAN JOSE SHARKS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your free pick for Tuesday, October 8th, 2013, comes in the NHL as the NY Rangers and Sharks meet in San Jose. The Rangers are a long way from home and in the second of a back to back road spot, having to battle the Kings last night. It's hard to see them wanting to play an uptempo attack, plus the have a great goalie to lean on. The under is 30-13-8 in the Rangers last 51 vs. the Western Conference. San Jose is a great defensive team, allowing 2 goals in two games. They are on a 6-0-1 run under the total. And when these teams meet the under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, including 4-0 under in the last 4 meetings in San Jose. Play the NY Rangers/Sharks under the total.

JR O'Donnell

Wild / Predators Under 5

Let's stay on the Pucks tonight in the MUSIC CITY.2 win less clubs roll into the battle banged up.. Minny with out Parise/Coyle out and the Predators punch in with a hot net minder in Rinne @ 8-3-2 with a 2.09 GAA versus Minnesota Wild.UNDER UNDER UNDER today..

SPORTS WAGERS

Oakland +133 over DETROIT

After yesterday’s 6-3 win in the opening playoff game in Detroit, the A’s have the Tigers’ collective minds reeling to the point of no return. You can see it clearly in the faces of every player on both sides. The A’s are relaxed, they’re confident and they can sense this wounded animal. This afternoon, the A’s go in for the kill and we trust they’ll get it. Dan Straily may seem like a starter with a limited ceiling given his mediocre 3.96 ERA but there are more reasons for optimism if you give him a closer look. The high strikeout rate he posted in the minors are no mirage. He owns an elite 11.1% swinging strike rate, a mark that could support 9 K’s/per nine even in the absence of mid-90s velocity. Furthermore Straily is dominating right-handers and he’s also refined his change-up against LH bats. Straily was outstanding down the stretch, posting a 3-1 record in his last five starts with an ERA of 2.10 and striking out 26 hitters over 30 frames. Straily is a one-time strikeout leader in the minors and he’s starting to figure things out at this level. Oakland has won five of the past six games at Comerica this season with Detroit’s only occurring in a game in which the Tigers needed a four-run ninth to win 7-6. Over those six games, Oakland has outscored the Tigers 40-24 and right now, the Tigers are not only reeling, they look like a defeated team.

Doug Fister has settled in nicely in Detroit, transforming from injury-prone soft-tosser to top-end rotation material over the span of two seasons. Fister's fastball velocity is down for the second straight year, so it's not surprising that he's been unable to maintain last year's strikeout gains but he remains valuable thanks to elite his elite control and an extreme groundball approach. That said, he hasn’t fooled the A’s. Current Oakland hitters have 41 hits in 125 career AB’s against Fister for a BA of .328. Besides, this choice isn’t based on the starters. It’s more about taking back a tag on the team in better form that is playing with more confidence and that has the Tigers by the throat. Prior to this series, we didn’t give Oakland much of a chance, having to face Scherzer, Verlander, and Sanchez in the first three games but one can sense the Tigers falling apart and we fully expect the A’s to put them out of their misery here.

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +179 over PITTSBURGH

OT included. Marc Andre Fleury was the NHL’s third star of the week after allowing one goal on 49 shots and almost recording back-to-back shutouts. Sure, that’s good for his confidence but this is still the same guy we’ve seen over and over and over flailing away in the crease as he pisses away games the Penguins should never lose. This guy is literally seeing a sports psychologist to figure how he’s somehow ended up this bad at stopping pucks and that’s going to be highlighted when guys like Paul Martin, who barely care about D at all, give up chances going the other way, or even when boats like Derek Engellend and Rob Scuderi get roasted wide multiple times a night. Kris Letang is still out and that leaves the Penguins group of defensive castoffs in shambles. The Pens paid so much money to such a small pool of guys that they’re forced to have at least a handful of players you couldn’t pick out of a police lineup for “depth.” The Penguins are loaded offensively, no question about that but after playing New Jersey and Buffalo to open the season, Pittsburgh is an overvalued team whose weak defense and goaltending has not been exposed yet.

Not only are the Penguins overvalued but the ‘Canes are undervalued as well. Carolina has picked up three out of a possible four points after defeating the Flyers on Sunday and losing to the Red Wings in their opener. Carolina was much the better team over Philly, outshooting them 34-18 and they were also the better team against Detroit in that 3-2 OT loss. This is a Carolina team on the rise big time with one of the best top 6 in the league and a defense that is starting to look like it could be one of the better groups in the league as well. Then of course there’s Cam Ward, who looks to be back at the top of his game after a difficult season filled with injuries a year ago. The Hurricanes are not only serious playoff contenders but this team reminds us of the one that came out of nowhere in 2006 to win the Stanley Cup. Win or lose, this line is out of whack because the oddsmakers and/or betting public have not caught on yet to the potential damage that this year’s Carolina Hurricanes will inflict on the rest of the league. Huge overlay.

New Jersey +164 over VANCOUVER

OT included. This is another line that is completely out of whack. The Canucks are coming off back-to-back wins over Edmonton and Calgary this past weekend but we’re not putting a lot of stock in either victory because the Oilers defense and goaltending is a complete dumpster fire and the Flames, well, they may not win 25 games this year. The Canucks opened the year with a listless 4-1 performance in San Jose and that’s the Canucks team we’re likely to see a lot more of this year.

One well respected NHL handicapper had this astute observation regarding the Canucks: “When I look at what's ahead for Vancouver this year I see Washington in 2011-12. After years of drafting offensive stars and having much regular season success the Caps dumped Bruce Boudreau for Dale Hunter. Suddenly players that knew nothing but filling the opposition's net with rubber would be required to step in front of pucks and act defensively responsible. The result wasn't pretty. Now in Vancouver, (under John Tortorella), you have a team drafted for their offensive talents and these veterans, who have known little about physical or defensive play their entire careers, are asked to muck, grind, and block shots. Can you teach old dogs new tricks? Maybe but it'll come with some growing pains”.

Furthermore, the Sedins are well past their prime and were soft to begin with. The team is a bunch of band-aids. Ryan Kesler can’t stay healthy (and is overrated to begin with). Booth can’t stay healthy (and rode one decent season to a payday). Their starting goalie literally – literally – does not want to play for the team but at least he posted a whopping .907 save percentage last year. Alex Burrows is an overrated pest because he played with two passers, Zack Kassian is a bust, and the team, as a whole, is just not very good. The Canucks peak was Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in 2011 and they’ve been on a descending roller coaster screaming towards the basement ever since.

The Canucks steamrolled the Oilers on Saturday night while New Jersey went into Edmonton last night and dropped a 5-4 decision in OT but try not to compare the two, as it is apples and oranges. The Devils built a 3-0 lead heading to the third last night and completely dominated the game. Then, as we suggested, Marty Brodeur happened. The Oilers scored four goals in an eight minute span and two more on two shootout attempts to secure the victory. Brodeur won’t happen tonight because one of the NHL’s best goaltenders, Cory Schenider gets the call to face his old team. The Devils are taking some heat because they are winless but Brodeur has started two of their three games and New Jersey’s other loss came at Pittsburgh in the season opener. Trust us, the Devils would be 2-1 if Schneider had played all three games. We are going to elaborate much more on the Devils at a later date but they are not close to being one of the NHL’s worst teams. They are solid defensively and very efficient in moving the puck out of their own zone. The offense is looking better each game and as long as they stick with Schneider, there is going to be big profits in backing them because right now, New Jersey is without question the most undervalued team in the NHL and they offer up huge value in this contest.

Tampa Bay +103 over BUFFALO

OT included. The Bolts were on our radar to begin the season and they are still on our radar after games against Boston and Chicago to open the year. Not only did they defeat the Blackhawks 3-2 in OT in Chicago, the Lightning also outplayed the Bruins in their first game of the year despite losing 3-1. The most important move the Lightning made over the past six months did not come over the summer; it came at last year’s trade deadline when they picked up Ben Bishop in exchange for Cory Conacher. Bishop is a monster in net that is going to be an all-star for years to come. He’s “sick” good and he gives this Tampa club outstanding stability in net with a chance to win every time he plays. After games against Chicago and Boston to open the year, playing the Sabres should appear in slow motion for the Bolts.

The Sabres are a team with next to no top-end talent offensively. Their roster is a barren wasteland. Tomas Vanek is all they have and he’s coming off a year in which he got off to a torrid start then came back to earth fast in the second half. Mikhail Grigorenko had a bust of a rookie year (and might already be like, 25 years old, who knows), and after that you’ve got a bunch of third liners and John Scott. There’s zero depth on D (let alone elite talent to begin with), Ryan Miller has regressed to league average and up front, the Sabres have already lost Ville Leino to an injury. The cupboard is bare, the Sabres are dregs and anytime this team is favored, especially over a club like Tampa, they are an instant fade. Wrong side favored.

Carlos Salazar

Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics took a 2 games to 1 lead in the ALDS series with the Tigers. Carlos says they close out the series on Tuesday and getting very good value as a 144 dog.

Nick Parsons

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche

It was John F. Kennedy that said: ?We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things. Not because they are easy, but because they are hard.?

It would be "easy" for me to give out a play on the Vancouver Canucks tonight as they get set to battle with the New Jersey Devils who are playing the second game of a back-to-back, off a disheartening 5-4 shootout loss in which they let the Oilers rally from a 3-goal deficit late in the contest, but I'll dig a little deeper to expose an underdog which I believe has a legitimate shot at winning outright.

Patrick Roy's 2-0 Avs are in Toronto to take on the 3-0 Buds. The Leafs have historically struggled in this position and I believe they're ripe for the picking.

Avalanche

Colorado will look to take advantage of a Toronto side which has allowed eight goals and at the same time, bolster its already impressive defensive stats.

After crushing the Ducks 6-1 in their opener, the Avs stifled the Predators 3-1 on Friday.

A big boost for the Avalanche today as well is the expected return of Gabriel Landeskog.

Note the Colorado is 13-5 (+10.2 units) the last two years in all non-conference games.

Leafs

Toronto beat the Flyers 3-1 on Wednesday. Jonathan Bernier made 32 saves.

The Leafs have trailed in all three games so far this year and that style of play is obviously not indicative to an overall successful season. Now this team gets tested by one of the best defenses in the league.

Note that Toronto is just 1-4 (-3.4 units) the last two seasons following a three-game unbeaten streak.

The Bottom Line

Great value on what I feel is the better overall team; consider playing Colorado tonight.

John Ryan

Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers

The simulator shows a high probability that the Flyers will win this match. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 351-166 mark for 68% winners and has made a whopping 84 units/unit wagered since 1996. Play against road underdogs against the money line (FLORIDA) after 1 or more consecutive losses an di now facing an opponent after three or more consecutive losses. Philadelphia is off to a 0-3 start scoring just one goal in each of those losses. However, their 2-1 loss at Carolina puts them into a very nice position to get their first win tonight. Note they are a resounding 15-1 against the money line (+14.9 Units) after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. After a winless start, the Flyers fired coach Peter Laviolette on Monday, three seasons after he led them to the Stanley Cup finals. Assistant Craig Berube, in his seventh season coaching within the organization, was promoted to replace Laviolette. The Flyers are a mess right now, but I fully expect them to play very hard tonight in front of the home crowd and get a confidence building win. Take the Flyers.

Jimmy Boyd

NY Islanders -125

The Phoenix Coyotes are 5-15 in their last 20 road games, and should struggle once again in today's matchup against the Islanders. San Jose laid a beating on the Coyotes in their last game, and they now have to fly across the nation for yet another road game. The Islanders are a team making great strides in recent years. They were a playoff team last season, and have a roster that is loaded with talent.

The Islanders are 10-3 in their last 13 games when playing with two days of rest. They are also 9-1 in their last 10 games when facing an opponent that scored two goals or less in their previous game. In head-to-head games between these teams the home ice has provided a big advantage at 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The Islanders are the better team, and playing at home makes them an easy call in this matchup.

Matt Fargo

Buffalo Sabres -111

It has not been a good start to the season for Buffalo as it is 0-3 thanks to an offense that has been non-existent as it has managed a grand total of only two goals in those three games. The Sabres schedule has been extremely tough though with two road games at Detroit and Pittsburgh sandwiched around a home game against Ottawa and the schedule is ranked the toughest thus far in the NHL. This is the worse start in franchise history since the 1980-1981 season which shows how bad things have been. Coming into the season, expectations were extremely low as a rebuilding year was inevitable but things have to turn around at some point and this looks to be a good spot to do so. One look at the line tells us this as Buffalo was the underdog in those first three games and now it is the favorite, albeit a slight one. Still, that makes this a good number to bite on. Tampa Bay is in its third and final road game to start the season and it has to be feeling pretty good about a 1-1 split against the Bruins and Blackhawks following a shootout win at Chicago on Saturday. We are not sure what to fully expect from this team as it is coming off a miserable season a year ago and in the two seasons since making the postseason, Tampa Bay surrendered more goals than it could produce, an average of three per game. The Lightning have scored just three goals in regulation in two games so like the Sabres, the offense is struggling. The real issue though is the defense and goaltending even though it has been a decent start this year. While they did finish 7th in the league in goals allowed per game in 2010-11, they finished dead last in the league in 2011-12 with an average of 3.39 gpg, and followed up last season finishing 26th with a 3.06 gpg average. This is a team that Buffalo should be able to get its offense going against. The Sabres are 20-8-1 in the last 29 home meetings in this series and they get into the win column for the first time this season on Tuesday.

Doug Upstone

San Jose Sharks -180

San Jose has come out of the gates smoking, going 2-0 and outscoring it's opponents 8-2. Look for this to continue Tuesday night as they host the Rangers. 19 year old rookie Tomas Hertl is off to a strong start for San Jose, scoring a pair of goals Saturday night. Play the Sharks.

Game Plan

Oakland/Detroit Under 7½

Both pitchers have respectable ERA's for the season under 4. Fister has pitched well in the post-season with a 2.97 ERA. Dan Straily has never faced Detroit in a starting role so it the Tigers are at a disadvantage as the pitchers usually have the advantage when this situation occurs. Take the under today.

Bryan Leonard

Boston red Sox -116

The Rays were able to salvage yesterday's game thanks to unlikely hero Jose Lobaton, but we believe that their season will end today. The Red Sox will send Jake Peavy to the hill, while the Rays will counter with Jeremy Hellickson. Peavy limped through the month of September and had trouble with his control, but 13 days of rest should have helped the veteran right hander to rest up and fix any mechanical issues there may have been. Peavy ranked seventh this season in first-strike percentage, something that should benefit him against a patient lineup like the Rays. The Rays batted just .205 with a .291 slugging percentage when the pitcher was ahead in the count this season.

Jeremy Hellickson finally had regression catch up with him this season. After posting well below league average BABIPs, Hellickson's BABIP fell in the league average range at .307 this season. The result? A 5.17 ERA. Hellickson was terrible over his final 10 starts, posting a 1-7 record with a 7.53 ERA. Hellickson has had major problems pitching from the stretch this season. With men on base, opposing hitters are batting .311/.363/.502 against Hellickson. The Red Sox will get baserunners and should have quality opportunities to score runs. After stranding 80+% of runners over the last three seasons with a below average strikeout rate, Hellickson stranded just 66% this season.

With the added pressure of pitching in an elimination game and his recent struggles, we think there's a lot of value in going against Hellickson and picking the Red Sox to punch their ticket to the ALCS.

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -143

The Detroit Tigers will win Game 4 and even this series with the Oakland A's tonight. I certainly believe they are worth the price of admission given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Doug Fister is 14-9 with a 3.68 ERA in 32 starts this season. Fister is 8-5 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 home starts, and 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts overall. Fister has also posted a 3.12 ERA in 13 career starts against Oakland.

Daniel Straily is one of the few weak links in Oakland's rotation. The right-hander has gone 10-8 with a 3.96 ERA in 27 starts this year. Straily has been at his worst away from home, going 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 15 road starts in 2013.

Oakland is a woeful 1-10 in its last 11 playoff games when trying to close out a series. The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 4 of a series. Detroit is 55-24 in its last 79 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Tigers are 25-10 in Fister's last 35 home starts. Bet Detroit in Game 4 Tuesday.

Bruce Marshall

Carolina Hurricanes vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins

Lots to be excited about in Pittsburgh after the Penguins' 2-0 break from the gate. Included in the success is improved work from GK Marc-Andre Fleury, who has stopped 48 of 49 shots, while Sidney Crosby has goals in two straight games to start a season for the first time since 2009-10.Moreover, Crosby and Evgeni Malkin usually fare well vs. Carolina; Malkin has scored in his last three vs.the Hurricanes to go along with a nine-game point streak against them, while Crosby's point streak against Carolina is at seven. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are on the road for the first time this season after two games at home in Raleigh, and Fleury is 5-0-0 in his last five at home vs. Carolina.