Jeff Benton
My Tuesday freebie comes on the same game, as I play Boston and Tampa Bay to head Over the total.
Going to keep this short and sweet...All 3 games played thus far have gone Over the total, and with Jake Peavy and Jeremy Hellickson looking to find some kind of rhythm I will expect the hitters to once again be front and center.
Peavy's 4 September starts saw at least 3 runs or more cross the plate, while Hellickson ended the season on a 1-7 slide his past 10 starts with an ERA of 7.53.
Expect the leash to be short on both starters tonight, and expect the bullpens to be busy early.
Boston-Tampa Bay to head Over the total.
3♦ BOSTON-TAMPA BAY OVER
LT Profits
Oakland vs Detroit
Pick: Under 7.5
The Detroit Tigers unexpectedly have their backs against the wall Tuesday facing elimination vs. the Oakland Athletics with their fourth starter on the mound. Luckily, Doug Fister is one of the best fourth starters in baseball as he finished 14-9 with a 3.67 ERA and a great ratio of 159 strikeouts vs. 44 walks. However, even if he matches that season performance, it still may not be enough as the Tigers have stopped hitting and they are facing a hot pitcher in Daniel Straily of the A’s. Straily has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last six starts and he has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 outings! He is facing a Detroit lineup batting an uncharacteristic .226 while averaging only 2.00 runs in the last 10 games. The ‘under’ is 8-1 in the Tigers’ last nine games overall.
Boston vs Tampa Bay
Pick: Over 7.5
The Boston Red Sox failed to complete the sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday as Tampa won on a walk-off homer by Jose Lobaton 5-4 after Boston took the first two games, and we now look for a relatively high scoring Game 4 between a couple of fourth starters that did not finish the season well. Jake Peavy of the Red Sox went 12-5 overall this year, but with a 4.17 ERA, and he has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts with a 5.40 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over those starts. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hellickson of the Rays went 12-10 with a bloated 5.17 ERA overall, he has an atrocious 7.82 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last three starts and he has a horrific 6.23 ERA since the All-Star break! The ‘over’ is 8-0 in the Red Sox last eight games as a road favorite.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +102
The Sabres are 0-3 and desperate for a win. I think they get it. Yes, Buffalo's offense has really struggled. But Tampa's hasn't been blowing the doors off, averaging just 2.0 goals per game. The Sabres have allowed just one goal at home this season, so look for a low scoring game in which I believe Buffalo, being at home, has the edge. Over the past couple of seasons, Buffalo is 9-3 after scoring less than three goals in three straight games. Take the home team to get off the schneid here.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders -125
The Coyotes have opened their season 1-1 with a 4-1 win at home vs the Rangers and then a 4-1 loss in San Jose on Saturday night. Phoenix was outshot 51-23 against the Sharks on Saturday and now head out for their second road game against the Islanders. New York is 1-0-1 as they beat New Jersey in a shootout and then lost to Columbus in their home opener in a shootout. Evgeni Nabokov is confirmed for the Islanders and he has looked good so far this year with a .914 SV% starting both games for the Islanders this year. Mike Smith can be expected to start as the Coyotes come into this game with two off days. He has also started both games for Phoenix, allowing just 1 goal against in their opener and then 3 goals against in San Jose when he was peppered with 50 shots. Note that the Coyotes are just 5-15 in their last 20 road games dating back to last season. The Islanders have looked pretty good so far two games into the season, and I like the price we are getting them on home ice vs the Coyotes. Take New York for 2 units.
Vancouver Canucks -108
The New Jersey Devils lost a tough one last night, as they allowed the Oilers to come back from a 3-0 deficit and take a 5-4 winner in a shootout. It was a frustrating loss for a Devils team that needs to get off to a good start, however, it has been anything but that. New Jersey has started 0-1-2, and now need to come back tonight for a matchup with one of the better teams in the NHL. Starting the year off with two overtime losses is always frustrating. Say what you want about the Canucks, but now that the goalie situation is cleared up in Vancouver, I think you're going to see them have a much better season this year. Will they choke again in the playoffs? Well, maybe, because I see them finishing as a top-3 team in the west, so they should have big expectations once again. The Devils season will go with how their goaltending does, most notably Martin Brodeur. I'm a big fan of Brodeur, but the wheels may be falling off as he gets up there in age. The Devils did acquire Cory Schneider, from the Canucks, who was a part of the goalie fiasco in Vancouver, who I could see starting tonight. I don't think it matters who starts in goal for the Devils, because I see the Canucks winning this one. They have won three straight over the Devils, and I can see it being four after tonight. I fully expect New Jersey to be a little hungover, in a sense, losing the way they did last night. The Canucks get to 3-1 on the year tonight, backed by a big performance from Roberto Luongo. I'll pass on the big moneyline with OT included, and take them to win in regulation with a 2 unit play.
Bob Balfe
Boston Red Sox -120
The Rays had a walk off home run in dramatic fashion to beat the Red Sox, but if you notice the Rays only beat the Red Sox in that type of fashion and that is just not going to happen every single night. Boston is the better ball club and have really been better head to head this year. Look for Tampa’s slipper to come off once midnight strikes. Take the Red Sox..