SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (72-59) at Philadelphia (75-53)
Fresh off a three-game home sweep of the Rockies that allowed them to pull into a tie for the N.L. wild-card lead, the Giants open a six-game road trip at Citizens Bank Park, with Jonathan Sanchez (6-10, 4.27 ERA) set to oppose Phillies ace Cole Hamels (7-8, 4.52).
San Francisco outscored Colorado 16-8 over the weekend and finished a six-game homestand with a 5-1 record. Now the Giants hit the highway where they’ve lost three in a row and four of their last five, and they’re 10 games under .500 on the road for the season (28-38). Bruce Bochy’s bunch has also lost four in a row after a day off, but it has won four straight series openers and four of five on Tuesday.
The Phillies continued their stellar play with Sunday’s 3-2 home win over the Braves. The defending World Series champs are on hot streaks of 36-16 overall, 21-8 at home, 4-1 against lefty starters, 5-0 against the N.L. West and 7-2 versus teams with a winning record.
The Giants have won five of the last six meetings with Philadelphia – including three of four this year – but all were at home. They’re only 3-10 in their last 13 visits to Citizens Bank Park.
Sanchez has posted a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts, with San Francisco winning the last two. Despite that, the Giants are still on a bevy of losing skids behind Sanchez, including 10-24 overall, 3-15 on the road, 4-10 against winning teams and 2-6 versus the N.L. East. The southpaw is 2-8 with a 4.81 ERA in 14 road appearances (12 starts) this year, but he’s 1-0 with a 4.60 ERA in six career outings (two starts) against the Phillies, including a 7-2 home victory on July 30.
Hamels picked up his lone victory in August on Wednesday in Pittsburgh, scattering seven hits over eight scoreless innings in a 4-1 victory. In his first four August outings – all Phillies losses – Hamels went 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 4.13 ERA in 12 home starts this year and 3-1 with a 5.03 ERA in five outings against the Giants, including a 7-3 loss in San Francisco on Aug. 2 when he got tagged for all seven runs (six earned) in five innings.
San Francisco carries “over” streaks of 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-1-1 when Sanchez faces N.L. East teams, but the under is 8-3 in its last 11 after an off day. For Philadelphia, the “under” is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 36-17-2 after a victory, 5-2 on Tuesday, 4-1 after a day off, 3-0 in Hamels’ last three trips to the mound and 7-1-1 when Hamels starts on Tuesday. However, Hamels’ last four home starts have topped the total, and the “over” is 4-1 in his five career starts against the Giants.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta (69-62) at Florida (68-63)
The two squads battling it out for second place in the N.L. East and looking to remain in the wild-card hunt continue their four-game series at LandShark Stadium. The Braves’ Tim Hudson is scheduled to make his 2009 debut against the Marlins’ Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 4.96 ERA).
Atlanta knocked off Florida 5-2 in Monday’s series opener, getting to Marlins All-Star pitcher Josh Johnson after being no-hit through 5 2/3 innings. The Braves have followed up a 13-5 run by going 3-4 in their last seven games, including 1-4 against right-handed starters. The Braves are still 9-4 in their last 13 road outings and 8-1 in their last nine when playing the second game of a series.
The Marlins have now dropped four of their last five, but they remain on upticks of 23-12 at home, 8-4 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 on Tuesday.
The season series between these division rivals is now tied at 6-6, with the Braves winning the last three in a row and the visitor going 8-4.
Hudson went 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) last year (3-6, 3.75 ERA on the road) before going on the shelf with an elbow injury that required surgery and sidelined him for the first five months of this season. Atlanta lost six of Hudson’s last seven road starts last year, but it has won nine of Hudson’s last 13 starts against the Marlins, including five of seven in South Beach. For his career, the former Cy Young Award winner is 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA against Florida, including a 9-4 victory in Miami last July 23 in his final start of 2008.
Since returning from a 2½-month stint on the disabled list, Sanchez has allowed five runs (three earned) in 9 2/3 innings, beating the Braves 5-3 on Aug. 21 before losing 10-3 to the Mets at home on Thursday. Florida has dropped five of Sanchez’s last seven starts overall and 10 of his last 14 against N.L. East rivals, but they’re still 12-5 in his last 17 home efforts, where the right-hander is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four starts this season.
Including the 5-3 win in Atlanta two weeks ago, Sanchez is now 3-3 with a 4.54 ERA in seven career starts versus the Braves.
The under is 10-4-1 in Hudson’s last 15 road starts, 13-6-2 in Atlanta’s last 21 on Tuesday, 7-2-1 in Sanchez’s last 10 starts overall, 5-1-1 in his last six against the N.L. East and 5-2 in Florida’s last seven games on Tuesday. Conversely, the Marlins are on “over” stretches as a team of 20-8-1 overall, 17-6 at home, 4-1 against right-handed starters, 10-4-1 against division rivals and 4-0 when facing Hudson.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (76-54) at Tampa Bay (71-59)
The Red Sox look to put more distance between themselves and the rest of the A.L. wild-card contenders when they send Jon Lester (10-7, 3.60 ERA) to the hill opposite the Rays’ Andy Sonnanstine (6-7, 6.61) in the opener of a three-game series at Tropicana Field.
Boston capped a 10-game homestand with a three-game sweep of Toronto, ending with Sunday’s 7-0 beat-down of Roy Halladay. The Sox won six of their last seven on their homestand, and they’re 10-3 in their last 13 contests in opening up a 3½-game lead in the wild-card race. Terry Francona’s squad is on additional positive runs of 7-0 against right-handed starters, 11-5 on Tuesday and 41-14 after an off day, but it has lost 17 of its last 25 to teams with a winning record, going 1-12 in the last 13 on the road versus winning clubs.
The Rays ended a seven-game road trip with Monday afternoon’s 11-7 victory over the Tigers in Detroit, but they remain five games behind Boston. Tampa Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games overall and it has won 11 of last 15 at home. Going back further, the Rays are on a 37-14 roll at Tropicana Field, and they’re on additional streaks of 8-3 against southpaw starters, 6-2 in A.L. East action and 7-1 on Tuesday.
The Rays are 8-4 in the 12 clashes with Boston this season and they’ve taken 16 of the last 21 meetings at Tropicana Field, including last year’s American League Championship Series, which Tampa Bay won in seven games.
Lester has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts, including all five starts in August, in which the southpaw posted a 2.41 ERA but had just one win to show for it. With Lester on the Hill, the Red Sox are on runs of 35-16 overall (3-0 last three), 6-3 on the road, 11-4 in series openers, 22-8 against winning teams and 25-12 versus A.L. East rivals.
Lester is 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA in 14 road starts this season, including an 8-1 rout at the White Sox 12 days ago. However, Boston has lost five straight games to Tampa Bay behind Lester (playoffs included), and he’s 4-4 with a 4.74 ERA in 12 career starts (10 regular season) against the Rays.
Sonnanstine spent the past two months in Triple-A Durham after getting off to a sluggish start with the big-league club. The right-hander, who went 5-3 with a 4.40 ERA in Durham, had all of his success at home this year, going 5-0 with a 4.54 ERA in six starts before his demotion, including a 6-2 victory over Boston on May 1.
Tampa Bay is 16-5 in Sonnanstine’s last 21 starts at the Trop, 10-2 in his last 12 at home against winning teams and 4-0 in his last four starts against the Red Sox (playoffs included). For his career, Sonnanstine is 3-1 with a 5.21 ERA in eight career starts (one playoff) versus Boston.
The Rays carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 7-1 on Tuesday, 17-8 against A.L. East foes and 5-1 when Sonnanstine faces division rivals. Also, the Red Sox are on “under” stretches of 8-3-1 after an off day, 9-3-1 when Lester faces winning clubs, 6-2 when Lester starts on Tuesday, 4-1-1 when he faces the A.L. East and 10-2-3 when he opens a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
The White Sox look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games as a home underdog between +110 and +150. The White Sox are the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135)
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Game 951-952: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.503; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.416
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+175); Over
Game 953-954: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.766; Florida (Sanchez) 14.876
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Under
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Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.841; Cincinnati (Lehr) 14.276
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Under
Game 957-958: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 14.684; Cubs (Wells) 14.271
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); N/A
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Game 959-960: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 15.312; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.786
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-190); Over
Game 961-962: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.988; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.334
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-225); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+205); Over
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Game 963-964: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 14.031; San Diego (Richard) 14.775
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Over
Game 965-966: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 16.183; LA Dodgers (Padilla) 17.190
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Over
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Game 967-968: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rzepczynski) 14.692; Texas (Nippert) 15.270
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under
Game 969-970: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Tallet) 14.499; Texas (McCarthy) 15.494
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-155); Over
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Game 971-972: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.514; Detroit (Jackson) 15.492
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.339; Baltimore (Hernandez) 16.783
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+155); Under
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Game 975-976: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.644; Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 16.787
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+160); Over
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.454; Minnesota (Manship) 14.784
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over
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Game 979-980: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.774; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.690
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+125); Under
Game 981-982: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.969; Seattle (Fister) 15.560
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Under
WNBA
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Seattle at New York
The Storm face a New York team that is just 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2)
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Game 601-602: Seattle at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 113.748; New York 111.281
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 137
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2); Under
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Game 603-604: Phoenix at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 109.363; Detroit 118.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9 1/2; 170
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 179 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Under
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Game 605-606: Minnesota at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 105.862; San Antonio 113.290
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 164
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4 1/2); Over
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Game 607-608: Connecticut at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.836; Sacramento 111.665
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+1); Under
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Game 609-610: Atlanta at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.980; Los Angeles 118.139
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 166 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 162
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-4); Over
Vernon Croy
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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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We are getting great value here Tuesday night with the Rays who are 4-0 in their last 4 home games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are just 1-12 in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning record and they are also just 1-4 in their last 5 games played on field turf. The Red Sox are 0-8 in Jon Lester's (10-7, 3.60 ERA) last 8 starts in field turf and the Rays are 10-2 in Andy Sonnanstine's (6-7, 6.61 ERA) last 12 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Rays are 16-5 in Sonnanstine's last 21 home starts and they are a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Red Sox. The Red Sox are 0-5 in Lester's last 5 starts against the Rays and they are just 5-16 in their last 21 trips to Tampa Bay. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night.
Frank Jordan
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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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Boston's Jon Lester is 0-2 in three starts against Tampa Bay and has giving up 14 runs and 21 hits in 15 innings. Andy Sonnanstine for Tampa Bay is 1-0 in his only start against Boston going into the 6th inning allowing just 2 runs. Look for Sonnanstine who is 5-0 at home to stay perfect there and against the Red Sox as Lester once against gives up a ton of runs to the Rays. Play Tampa Bay
Jim Feist
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Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Washington Nationals
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Have to look at the visitors here. Washington has a respectable offense and J.D. Martin doesn't walk anyone. That's not the case with the San Diego starter: Clayton Richard of the Padres is a walk-machine, allowing 57 free passes in 118 innings. In his last 3 starts, he has allowed a whopping 11 free passes in 12 innings! That explains a 6.75 ERA during those games -- and he is favored for this one. Play the Nationals.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Over 9
This game fits a nice system that has cashed 11 of 13 times and averages 13 runs per game.what we want to do is play the over when a road team is coming off a home dog win of 5 or more runs and taking on an opponent off a road win that had 10+ hits.Boston has gone over the total in 4 of 6 games this year off a shut out win.In their last 7 games they are hitting .297 while averaging 6 runs per game.Lefty J.Lester makes the start tonight and he has struggles vs the Rays this year with allowing 14 earned runs in 15 innings of work and an alarming 21 hits in that span.Tampa has righty A.Sonnanstine going tonight and he is making just his first start since late June.Tonight he gets a tough Boston lineup that has been tearing it up.With Sonnanstine having a high home era and the big system in play take the over in this one.
EZWINNERS
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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Play: Los Angeles Angels -140
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The Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana has been pitching well. Santana took the loss in his last outing against Oakland due to a lack of run support as he only allowed two earned runs against the A's. Seattle's starting pitcher Doug Fister had four good starts for the Mariners before getting rocked by Kansas City in his last outing. Fister was never really impressive in AAA, so its not surprising that major league hitters are starting to figure him out. With all of the hitters in the LA lineup I expect them to get some good wood on the ball here. The Angels are 10-2 in Santana's last twelve starts against the Mariners and I expect those winning ways to continue. Play on the Angels.
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta -105 at FLORIDA
FREE winner on the gridiron Monday as the Vikings not only covered but won just like I said they would against the Texans. Today I'm on the diamond with a comp winner on the Braves as they battle the Marlins in Florida.
The Braves weren't supposed to be a factor, but here they are right in the thick of the N.L. Wildcard race and I love them tonight against the Marlins as they will be bolstered by the return of right-hander Tim Hudson, who makes his first start in more than a year after elbow issues and eventual surgery sidelined him.
This guy dominated the Marlins when he was healthy and there's no reason to believe they can hit him now. Atlanta was 9-4 in his 13 starts against Florida, inlcuding 5-2 in Miami. For his career, Hudson is 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA against the Marlins, inlcuding a 9-4 win on July 23, 2008 - his final start before elbow problems.
Atlanta beat the Marlins 5-2 in Monday's series opener, beating Florida All-Star hurler Josh Johnson. The Braves are 16-9 in their last 25, 9-4 on the road and 8-1 in the second game of a series.
On the hill for Florida is Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 4.96 ERA) who is 0-2 at home. He's seen the Braves three times this season and in his lone start against them in Florida, he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings of a 4-2 loss. The Marlins have dropped four of his last six starts against Atlanta dating back to 2006.
Florida is just 5-15 as a home 'dog and 4-10 when Sanchez faces N.L. East foes. Look for Atlanta to get to Sanchez early and often and give Hudson some nice run support tonight. Play the Braves.
2♦ ATLANTA
Dominic Fazzini
Atlanta -105 at FLORIDA
The Angels cruised to a 10-0 victory Monday for my second straight complimentary-play win, pushing my current run to 19-12. Now I'm turning my attention to the National League to keep this roll going.
Atlanta right-hander Tim Hudson is making his first start since July 23, 2008, after an elbow injury disabled him. After having Tommy John surgery less than a week after his injury, the two-time All-Star is ready to return to the mound.
Hudson was 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) last year. He has had good success in his career against Florida, going 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 13 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in eight games in Miami.
Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 4.96) has struggled this season. The right-hander has been on the disabled list twice this year with shoulder problems, and he allowed four runs and eight hits in 3 2/3 innings Thursday in a 10-3 loss to the lowly Mets.
Sanchez beat the Braves on Aug. 21, allowing one run and two hits in six innings. However, he is just 3-3 with a 4.54 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta.
The Braves managed to beat Florida ace Josh Johnson on Monday, and the Marlins have lost four of their last five games. Atlanta seems like a team ready to make a run at the playoffs, while Florida might be ready to collapse in its quest for the postseason.
The Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 road games, and 8-1 in their last nine in the second game of a series. The visiting team in the season series between the division rivals also has gone 8-4. I expect Hudson to have a solid return and the Braves to grab the victory today.
3♦ ATLANTA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Atlanta -110 at FLORIDA
Push last night on Arizona-Los Angeles UNDER the total. Now 27-11-3 comp play run the last 41 days.
Atlanta struck late last night, as they won the series opener against Florida 5-2.
We feel if you can beat the Marlins ace in Josh Johnson, you can certainly beat Anibal Sanchez whom they have had success against in the past. Sanchez is 2-2 his last 5 starts against Atlanta, but the Braves have gotten to him for 17 runs in his last 25 innings of work against them.
Atlanta counters with Tim Hudson who is making his first start of the season. While we don't expect Hudson to go the route tonight, it is good to know that Atlanta is 9-3 the last 12 times Hudson has started against the Marlins.
The Braves have now won 3 of their last 5, while the Marlins have dropped 4 of their last 5. Atlanta is also 4-2 this year at Florida, and a decent 13-11 since 2007 at Miami.
At a near pick price, we prefer to side with the visitor to come through once again.
2♦ ATLANTA
Karl Garrett
Boston at TAMPA BAY +150
Monday comp play winner on underdog Toronto.
Call me crazy, but why is Jon Lester laying this kind of wood at Tampa Bay this Tuesday night?!?!?!
Tampa Bay has "owned" Boston recently, and this is one of those games that is just screaming for a play on the home dog!
Boston comes into town having won their last 3, and 6 of their last 7, but this series is on the road, and the BoSox and the highway have been a losing mix this season at 31-33.
Tampa is back home where they are 42-21 for the season. Included is a 5-1 mark against the Red Sox.
The Rays are now 13-2 at home during the regular season against the Red Sox, and Tampa Bay starter Andy Sonnanstine is a perfect 5-0 at home this year. Sonnanstine is making his first start since the end of June, but does own a 6 inning, 2 run win over Boston from back in early may.
Jon Lester did work 6 innings of 1 run ball against the Rays in a road no-decision less than a month ago, but his previous 2 starts against Tampa saw 13 runs allowed in 9 innings of work for an 0-2 ledger.
Based on those numbers, and at this price, the value rests with the Rays in this one.
Take Tampa.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
Jeff Benton
Boston at TAMPA BAY +145
For Tuesday’s free play, I’ll back the Rays as a rare home underdog against the Red Sox.
How do you not take this kind of plus price with a team that’s been as dominant at home as Tampa Bay has been since May of last year? The Rays have been playing better than .700 baseball at Tropicana Field since that time, and most recently, they’ve won 37 of their last 51 at home, going 11-4 in the last 15. They’re also 55-20 in their last 75 home games against teams with a winning overall record and 69-28 in their last 97 at home against squads that have a losing road record (and Boston is 31-33 away from Fenway Park).
The Red Sox have really not enjoyed the Trop recently, either, going 5-16 in their last 21 visits to Tampa. Additionally, the Rays have won eight of the last 11 overall this season against Boston.
So why is this price so high? Clearly, it’s because of the starting pitching matchup, with Boston sending Jon Lester (10-7, 3.60 ERA) against Andy Sonnanstine, who spent the last 2½ months in Triple-A after starting the season 6-7 with a 6.61 ERA. However, dig a little deeper and you’ll see some very interesting trends.
First off, Sonnanstine’s overall numbers in the bigs this year are awful, but at home, he’s 5-0 with a 4.54 ERA in six starts. Going back to last year, the Rays are 16-5 when Sonnanstine pitches at Tropicana Field, and they’ve won four straight games that the right-hander has started against the Red Sox, including a 6-2 home win on May 1. On the flip side, the Red Sox have come up empty in Lester’s last five starts against Tampa Bay. Two of the losses came last year in the ALCS, and the other three came this year by scores of 7-2, 14-5 and 4-2.
Also, as well as Lester has been pitching lately – and he’s been tremendous – Boston is just 5-3 in his last eight starts, including 2-3 on the road. Finally, there’s one startling negative stat that applies to the Red Sox: They’ve lost 12 of their last 13 road games to teams with a winning record!
Way too much value with Tampa Bay to pass up tonight, so take the plus money.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Tom Freese
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Under
St. Louis is 7-1 UNDER off a win in their last game and they are 12-4-1 UNDER their last 17 home games vs. righty starters. The Cardinals are 13-3 at home if the Total is 7.0 to 8.5 and they are 15-7-1 UNDER in the last 23 starts made by Joel Pineiro. Milwaukee starter Braden Looper has allowed 4 or less runs in 6 of his last 8 starts. Milwaukee is 17-5 UNDER their last 22 games as road underdogs of +151 to +200. The Brewers are 8-3-1 UNDER their last 12 road games when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Brewers are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 meetings with the Cardinals. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -1.5 +111
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Bottom Line: Look for the Cubs to bounce back at home behind Wells as they are 6-0 in Wells' last 6 starts with 4 days of rest and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the National League Central. Plus, Wells has had Houston's number, going 2-0 against them on the money line with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.071 this season. I like Wells to win the battle on the hill tonight and the Cubs should do enough damage against Moehler (5.18 ERA) to win this one on the run line.
Bob Harvey
LAA Angels at Seattle Mariners
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The Angels are starting to pull away in the AL West and picked up momentum last night by dealing the Mariners their second consecutive shutout defeat.
With a little over a month remaining in the regular season, the Angels have turned the race for the AL West title into a romp.
Vladimir GuerreroThe Angels blasted the Mariners 10-0 on Monday night to stretch their lead to six games over second-place Texas. Seattle, playing without Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, Ken Griffey Jr. and Russell Branyan, is now 11 games back and are all but mathematically out of the playoff picture. The Mariners, the lowest scoring team in the American League, have been shut out in back-to-back games and even with Ichiro and Beltre slated to return to action tonight, don’t have nearly enough firepower to hang with the Angels.
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Through 58 games the Angels hit 44 home runs and rank 10th in the AL with a .404 slugging percentage. In their last 72 games, the Angels have 105 homers and now rank fifth in the majors with a .452 slugging percentage. Each night a different LA player steps up with the big bat. Monday it was Vlad Guerrero who homered twice, including a tape-measure shot. He’s hitting .341 over the past 10 games.
With the addition of Scott Kazmir the Angels are poised to make a deeper playoff run this year. Joe Saunders has been impressive in his past two outings and tonight’s starter, Ervin Santana, has rebounded from a rough start to turn his season around. Santana saw his four-game winning streak come to an end Thursday with a 2-0 setback to the A’s but he still has an ERA of 2.67 in his last four starts and is poised to move above the .500 mark with a victory tonight.
The Halos are also 7-2 in Santana’s last nine starts and 10-2 in his last five starts against the Mariners. With John Lackey and Jered Weaver at the top, the Angels now have Kazmir, Saunders and Santana battling for the third spot in the playoff rotation. That’s a nice problem to have if you’re Mike Scoscia.
Seattle will send rookie Doug Fister to the hill. It will be Fister’s sixth big league start as he looks to improve on a 1-1 record and an ERA of 3.42.
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If you’re hesitant about taking the Angels as a road favorite, let me try to put your mind at ease. The Angels are 23-9 in their last 32 games in this spot and are a sparkling 34-26 away from the Big A this season. This is a good spot to jump on the Angels given the M’s current offensive outage.
Pick: Angels -132