BIG AL
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Over 9
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The Red Sox and Rays have averaged over 10 runs per game at Tropicana Field this season, and runs should once again be cheap in the series opener tonight.
Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays going over the total at Tropicana Field in St. Pete.
Carlos PenaTonight begins perhaps the most important series of the season for the defending American League Champion Rays, as Boston comes to town for three games with a five-game lead over Tampa Bay for the AL Wild Card heading into this first contest. A Boston sweep would put the Rays eight games down with a month to go, and that doesn't take into account the fact that Texas is also in the race for the last American League playoff spot.
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This could just be the biggest regular season game of Tampa righthanded starter Andy Sonnanstine's career, as Sonanstine will get called up from AAA-Durham to take the spot of Scott Kazmir who was just traded by the Rays to the Angels. Sonnanstine hasn't started for the Rays since June 25, and his numbers in the first three months certainly don't instill confidence tonight as the righthander had gone 6-7 with a 6.61 ERA in 15 starts before getting shipped down.
These two teams have played six games at Tropicana Field this season, and so far there has not been a shortage of runs as a total of 61 runs have been scored, or an average of over 10 runs per game. Take the Over.
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Pick: Red Sox-Rays Over 9
Hentai Sports
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction : Tampa Bay Rays
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The Red Sox are just 1-12 in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning record and they are also just 1-4 in their last 5 games played on field turf. The Red Sox are 0-8 in Jon Lester’s (10-7, 3.60 ERA) last 8 starts in field turf and the Rays are 10-2 in Andy Sonnanstine’s (6-7, 6.61 ERA) last 12 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Rays are 16-5 in Sonnanstine’s last 21 home starts and they are a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Red Sox. The Red Sox are 0-5 in Lester’s last 5 starts against the Rays and they are just 5-16 in their last 21 trips to Tampa Bay.
Ron Raymond
Washington – San Diego: UNDER 8
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Keys to selection: When SAN DIEGO played as a home team - During Current Season - With 1 Under or Less; the UNDER is 9-2-1 for the Padres in this spot this year.
Chicago Wsox – Minnesota: UNDER 9
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Keys to selection: When MINNESOTA Played as a Underdog - During Current Season - With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G; the UNDER is 14-3-2 for the Twins in this cycle this season.
KC – Oakland: UNDER 8.5
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Keys to selection: When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher - Coming off a 2 game over; the UNDER is 12-4-0 for the A's in this spot the L5Y.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins +135
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These two teams are headed in different directions and I'll back the one on the upswing at a great price tonight. The White Sox will be without one of their top sluggers as Jim Thome has been traded to the Dodgers. That's not good news for a team that has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last games. The White Sox have dropped 9 of their last 11 and are just 1-7 on their current road trip. Plus, this team has never enjoyed the Metrodome. The White Sox are 1-6 at the Dome this season and just 2-15 in their last 17. Danks has been a bright spot for the Sox, but they are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. the American League Central and have lost both of his starts at the Metrodome this season. He doesn't figure to get much run support here. I know Minnesota sends an inexperienced starter to the hill, but I like his chances against the struggling Sox, especially since they aren't familiar with him.
Rocketman
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G1 Toronto Blue Jays vs. G1 Texas Rangers
Play: G1 Texas Rangers
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Toronto is 59-70 so far this season while Texas comes in with a nice 72-58 overall record on the year. Texas sits 6 games behind the LA Angels in the AL West division and 4 games behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL Wild Card standings. Texas is 43-27 the past 3 years when playing on Tuesday. Texas is 14-6 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Texas is scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this year where they have a solid 41-25 record on the season. Dustin Nippert is 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA at home this year. I feel like the Rangers will get some revenge here today after last night's 18-10 whipping put on by Toronto. Rangers getting into must win situations and they get it done today. We'll recommend a small play on Texas in Game 1 today!
LT Profits
Kansas City at Oakland
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The Kansas City Royals are a terrible 24-40 on the road this season while getting outscored by a whopping 1.25 runs per game, and they are 3-7 in their last 10 meetings with these Oakland Athletics at McAfee Coliseum.
Oakland took the series opener 8-5 here last night, marking the third loss in four games for the Royals, all of which were by at least three runs. Moreover, the only Kansas City win in this stretch was started by Zack Greinke, and their Tuesday starter Kyle Davies is nowhere near that class.
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Davies has had some good moments, but just as he has for his entire career, he is maddeningly inconsistent. Yes, he has two Quality Starts in his last three outings, but that still leaves him with a 5-9 record, a 5.94 ERA and an equally brutal 1.55 WHIP overall this season. Also, true to form, he has alternated good starts and bad starts, putting him in line for a bad one today.
Now granted, Oakland starter Edgar Gonzalez does not have pretty numbers himself, but he did earn this return to the rotation by pitching well in nine of his last 10 outings out of the bullpen. If we toss out his one bad effort during this time, he has a good 3.37 ERA over the other nine appearances. It also helps that the Royals are hitting nearly 20 points lower vs. right-handers (.266) than vs. left-handers (.285) over the last 10 games.
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Look for the Kansas City road struggles to continue tonight.
Pick: Athletics -1.5 (+150)
Tony George
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CIN (-115) vs PIT
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Hand it to the Reds and their manager and coaches, it would have been easy to throw in towel, but these guys are doing a great job of building some momentum for the future. They are on a 7-2 run and off a 2 game double header sweep of the hapless Pirates on Monday. The Pirates are simply a go against team on the road, having dropped 44 of their last 57 road games, and tonight they send Morton to the hill who has posted over a 9 ERA in his last 3 starts, against a team heating up at the plate, at home on a major roll. Pitts bullpen is respectable, but no doubt tired as their starting rotation stinks, and they are batting just .226 against right handers at the plate the last 10 games, that does not get it done in MLB, especially on the road where you are clearly out-manned. Cheap number for the better team.
GoodFella
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LOS -1.5 (-105) vs ARI
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I fully expect the Dodgers to bounce back from their loss last night to the D-Backs as last night was a very tough spot for the Dodgers.....as they were coming off a roadie, playing their 1st game back at home and were still on East Coast time (with NO day off)....I like what I saw from Padilla in his L/start and I think he will hold down the D-Backs to 2 or 3 runs and hand it off the Dodgers bully. I dont expect Petit to have much success vs this zoned in and focused Dodgers ballclub tonight, and we will lay the RL here and look for a 8-4 type of win tonight.
Spartan
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Cleveland at Detroit
Play: Detroit
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The Tigers sit atop the divsion but have yet to seal the deal. I pretty much lke everything about the matchup particularly the starting pitchers. I really like watching the Tigers Edwin Jackson work. He has a great fastaball that moves and one of the nastiest sliders in the league. At this point in the season when you can boast of an era of 2.96 in the American League then you are doing solid work. Opposing Jackson will be a youngster named Carlos Carrasco making his major league starting debut. He was part of the deal that brought Cliff Lee over to the Phillies. I'll take my shot here with confidence on the Tigers and let the books choke on their damn chalk, run line Detroit.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on LA Angels -133
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I had the Angels on the premium side yesterday and they came through for us with a 10-0 win over the Mariners. I like LA to prevail again tonight as they hold the big advantage on the pitcher's mound and at the plate again tonight. The Angels are 6-0 in Santana's last 6 road starts and 10-2 in Santana's last 12 starts vs. the Mariners. Plus, the M's 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Halos.
Jimmy the Moose
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
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The Pirates loss on Monday was their 5th in their last 6 games. Pittsburgh is 13-43 in their last 56 road games. In their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing record they are 7-21. The Pirates are 1-37 in their last 54 games as an underdog. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of Morton's last 7 starts.The Pirates have lost his last 4 road starts. The Reds have won 6 of their last 8 games. In their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record the Reds are 5-0.The Reds Justin Lehr is 3-1 on the year. In his 3 home starts this season he's not giving up more than 3 ER's.Play on the Cincinnati Reds -.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -110
The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped both games yesterday, making their road record dip to 18-48. The Pirates have now lost their last nine on the road, and 14 of their last 15. It also means they are now 3-23 in their last 26 on the road. They have become automatic fade material on the road. The Reds went through a bad stretch, but are now on a 7-2 run, with the only losses coming at the hands of the LA Dodgers, which is a much different team than they are seeing here in the Pirates, who have thrown in the towel. The Reds have now won six straight against the NL Central, and look like they are ready to sweep the Pirates. I'm going with Cincinnati here.
Roz Juarbe
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D-Backs at Dodgers
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Dodger stadium is a huge park, a pitcher-friendly one. This is a high total for an NL game, especially in this park. Arizona comes to town with a weak offense, 15th in runs scored, 20th in on base percentage. Yusmeiro Petit of the Diamondbacks as pitched better of late after a rough start. Coming to the NL has already helped LA starter Vicente Padilla, who was terrific in his first start. Look for more defense than oddsmakers expect, play the D-Backs/Dodgers Under the total.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
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Lefty Clayton Richard had led his team to wins in four of his first five starts since coming over from Chicago, but was tatooed in his last start vs. Atlanta. There is no better team to get back on track against than the lowly Nats, who are 1-16 on the road when the total is 8.5 or less this season. Even worse they are 4-23 away following a game with a combined score of four runs or less. Richard has a 10-4 TSR in night games and Wash is 3-18 after a loss by 2 runs or less.
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Play on: San Diego
Freddy Wills
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5
We are going with the Cubs on the run line with great value here today. Moehler has been pretty consistent and on the road he’s 5-3 with a 4.35 ERA, but vs. the Cubs it’s a totally different story with 3 starts this year and 9.2 IP with 15 ER. The Cubs have a collective .313 average vs. Moehler including Lee .412 w/3HR. To be honest the Astros have struggled to put up runs and although they scored 5 yesterday I think they face Wells in a tougher match up for them. Wells has yet to allow a run to the Astros in two starts this year vs. the Astros and the Astros are hitting .239 scoring 3.35 runs per 9 innings in their last 10 games. The Astros bullpen is 6.84 in their last 3 so advantage Cubs there too. 8 of the 9 Cubs wins over the Astros this year have come via more than 1 run and the Cubs are 9-1 in Wells’ last 10 as a favorite. I like Wells to bounce back from his last outing he was unable to locate his sinker so he threw some pitches he normally has not. Wells said he figured out his problems and should be back to his usual self here tonight.