ATS Consultants
San Francisco Giants/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 8.5
Big series gets underway tonight at Citizens Bank Park, as both of these teams are going for playoff berths. The Phillies are in a good position in the NL East, while the Giants are tied with the Rockies atop the NL Wild Card standings.
Jonathan Sanchez (6-10, 4.27) has had an amazing year. He won a starting spot out of Spring Training but was so awful in April and May that he was sent back down to triple A. He worked hard to earn a promotion, and pitched a no hitter in his first start back from the minors and hasn’t looked back. He’s 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his last 5 starts.
Cole Hamels (7-8, 4.52) is beginning to round back into form as we hit September. Hamels was the MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series last season, and looks to be hitting his stride at just the right time. He pitched 8 shutout innings last time out, August 26 against Pittsburgh.
New York Yankees/Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5
After last night’s masterpeice by Andy Pettitte, I expect a lot more runs to be scored tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. New York appears headed to another division title while Baltimore is playing out the string with youngsters.
AJ Burnett (10-8, 4.10) takes the mound for the Yankees, a team in which he has a 9-1 career record against. Burnett hasn’t been too sharp of late, as he’s 0-3 with a 4.96 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Yankees will need him to find his consistency if they hope to make a deep run in October.
Baltimore is building with young pitching, and tonight’s starter David Hernandez (4-6, 4.24) is a good example of Baltimore’s bright future on the mound. Hernandez started his major league career well, but has seemed to hit a rookie wall lately. He’s 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA in his last 5 starts. He, along with Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz will likely only make 2 more starts each as the Orioles prepare for 2010.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they face the Reds set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-22 making 22 units with the average play a dog of +122. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start. Reds are just 12-23 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 2-16 (-14.6 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Take the Pirates.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Detroit Shock
Play: Detroit Shock -1.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Detroit as they face Phoenix set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Detroit will win this game by 3 or more points. Detroit is the better rebounding team in this matchup based on the AiS. They have an 85% probability of getting 4 to 9 more total rebounds than Phoenix. Note that Detroit is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-5 for 84% winners since 2003. Play against dogs that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game facing an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take Detroit.
Mike Rose
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Under 8.5
Southpaw Jonathan Sanchez has simply been revitalized since tossing his perfect game back on July 10th. Since pulling off the impressive feat, Sanchez is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA in nine starts. Opponents are batting just .168 against him during that stretch. He’s been real solid of late (1-0 with a 2.37 ERA L/3 starts), and is coming off a no decision effort against Arizona where he limited the D’Backs to just six hits and three earned runs with a K/BB ratio of 9/2 through seven innings of work. While he’s a poor 2-8 on the road this season, he’s 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA his L/3 starts as a visitor. The Giants are 2-0 in his two career starts against Philadelphia, and he beat them a month ago at AT&T Park allowing three hits and two ER’s through 5.2 total innings. This will be his first ever start at Citizens Bank Park.
Looking to grab his first win since the end of July will be southpaw Cole Hamels who enters his 26th start of the year 7-8 with a 4.52 ERA & 1.34 WHIP. It’s been a rough year for the lefty, but he looked to be his old dominant self his last time out against Pittsburgh where he tossed eight shutout innings against the Buccos while K’ing seven and walking a pair. Philly’s just 6-6 in his 12 home starts, but they’ve won three of his L/4. Hamels and Philly brass are hoping he’s turned his season around, and by the looks of it, his 2.84 ERA his L/3 outings might be an indicator of what’s to come in the near future. He got bombarded by the Giants in his August 2nd start on the west coast allowing 10 hits and six ER’s through just five innings of work. The loss was his first against San Francisco in five career outings.
The Phillies have beaten the Giants in 10 of their L/13 visits to Philadelphia, but the Giants are 5-1 in the L/6 overall meetings. The under is 8-3 in the Giants L/11 games after an off day, and it’s also 6-1 in the Phillies L/7 vs. a +.500 team.
Scott Rickenbach
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Under 8.5
Molina is not expected to start this game for the Giants and that takes a solid stick out of the lineup. That spells trouble against Hamels and the Phils. Cole Hamels stepped up strongly after the Cliff Lee trade as Hamels certainly doesn't want to become the "forgotten" southpaw now that Lee is on board. We look for another strong effort here from Hamels against a Giants team that is 19-6 to the under when they are away from home and the total is an 8.5 or 8.
As for the Phillies, they have stayed under the total in seven of their last ten games. Also, Citizens Bank Park has actually played to the under to the tune of a 34-28 rate this season. So the "hitter friendly" park certainly has not panned out as one thusfar. The Phillies are coming off of a tight win on Sunday and note that they are 42-29 to the under when coming off of a win. Additionally, the Phils have been held to four runs or less in six straight games. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Philadelphia on Tuesday night.
Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Indians will be throwing out Carlo Carrasco, a key piece of the trade that sent Victor Martinez to Boston, and although the schedule says they?ll be facing the Tigers, you might as well call them the ?Lions? because we expect Detroit to really knock the young hurler around tonight. They are 42-22 at Comerica Park, including 33-15 when favored and their starter Edwin Jackson is 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts here. Cleveland is 41-56 vs. righties this year. Take Detroit.
Indian Cowboy
Take Florida Marlins +100 over Atlanta Braves.
I am a Braves fan through thick and thin. I simply love the Braves. Having said that, it is difficult for any pitcher to come back into a live game after an injury. Simulated games are one thing and live games are another thing. I expect Hudson to be back in form in his third and maybe even in his second start. But, to beat the Marlins who come off a loss yesterday and who are also competing for the wild card spot, Hudson has to be near perfect. And, I simply think that he will be a bit rusty today. Sanchez has defeated the Braves twice already giving up just 3 runs in 12 innings. I expect Sanchez to bounce-back from his last start where he was knocked out prior to the fourth inning against the Mets at home. The Braves were 1-6 in Hudson's last 7 road starts prior to his injury and the Marlins are 4-1 when Sanchez faces a team with a winning record.
Dave Busk
Take Under (9.5) Toronto at Texas
These two teams combined for twenty eight runs on Monday night with Toronto exploding for eighteen of those runs. Don’t think that will happen in game one of this doubleheader with Toronto sending Marc Rzepczynski to the bump, Rzepczynski has been good. Over his last three start’s he has tossed 18 1/3 innings giving up just four runs, quietly the left hander is becoming a future part of this staff. The Rangers who struggle vs. left hander’s send Dustin Nippert to the hill of a short outing vs. the Yankees where he lasted just 3 2/3 innings after walking seven. Chalk that up to a bad outing and I think Nippert bounces back and pitches a good one today where he has a 1.76 era in the ballpark at Arlington. To boot we have a under umpire in James Hoye behind the plate.