Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, September 13,2011

Matt Fargo

Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Ian Kennedy is coming off another sensational start as he limited the Padres to one run on seven hits in 7.1 innings while striking out 11 and walking none. It was his fourth straight quality start, all of which he has allowed one run or less. Arizona is 22-8 in his 30 starts and he has tossed quality outings in 11 of 12 starts with the only exception being a game where he could only go three innings because of a rain delay. Kennedy is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three starts against the Dodgers this season. The Dodgers send Chad Billingsley to the mound and he has been very inconsistent of late. He has not won a game since August 5th and over his last 10 starts he has a 5.20 ERA with only four of those start being quality outings. He started the season with six consecutive quality performances at home but he has done that in just three of his last seven home starts. Arizona lit him up for six runs in 5.2 innings in his last home start against the Diamondbacks. 3* Arizona Diamondbacks

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants fit a solid system that has cashed 38 of 52 times and plays on home favorites of -140 or higher and won as a home favorite by 5 or more runs with 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs, scoring 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits with 5+ men left on base. The Giants have M. Cain on the mound and he has a 2.88 home era. He takes on San Diego Luebke who has a 5.87 over his last 3 starts. The Padres have lost 8 of 11 in September and are hitting just .222 in division games this season. They have dropped 21 of their last 30 vs winning teams. The Giants have won 14 of 20 as a home favorite in this range and 6 of 9 in game 2 of a home series off a win. If we make the total in the above system 8 or less it has cashed 9 of 10. Take the Giants tonight.

David Chan

Cubs @ Reds
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

Ryan Dempster (10-11, 4.74 ERA) gets the start for the Cubbies.

Dempster gave up three runs and 10-hits over six frames in his team's 6-3 win over the Reds last Wednesday, but did not factor into the decision.

He's 0-3 with a 5.64 ERA over his last four starts, but had gone 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his previous four.

Dempster looks to return to form here against a team he's enjoyed plenty of success against this season, going 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts vs. Cincinnati.

Dempster will be opposed by Mike Leake (11-9, 4.00 ERA) who is coming off his best outing of the year; last Tuesday at Wrigley, Leake left the game after 8 2/3's frames of work with a 2-0 lead, only to watch his bullpen blow his fantastic performance allowing the Cubs to tie the game; the Reds went on to win 4-2 over 13 frames in the end:

“You hate to get two outs and it be the last at-bat. It got to me,” Leake said after. “I’m glad we came back, or else I would have been wearing it even more.”

In 10-starts since the Midsummer Classic he has a 3.60 ERA; he's also 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA in six career starts vs. Chicago.

A couple of quality starters going head to head on Tuesday night; you may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Nick Parsons

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:

The Cardinals are 79-68; 41-34 at home and 38-34 on the road; they lost the opener 6-5 yesterday.

Chris Carpenter (9-9, 3.75 ERA) heads to the hill for the Cards; Carpenter gave up four runs in eight innings in a 6-4 victory over the Pirates at PNC Park back on July 22nd.

Note that he's 12-3 with a 2.64 ERA in 19 starts in his career vs. Pittsburgh.

In the other dugout: The Pirates are 67-80; 34-42 at home and 33-38 on the road.

Jeff Karstens (9-8, 3.32 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Karstens has lost two straight, and in his last outing he gave up five runs in just 3 2/3's innings in Pittsburgh's 7-4 setback to the Cardinals; Karstens is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in three outings vs. St. Louis this year.

Bottom line: After yesterday's setback which snapped a five-game win streak, I expect the Cards to rally behind Carpenter (who just signed a new two-year deal), and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Jim Feist

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Diego Padres

San Francisco has folded in September, unlike a year ago, with a weak offense, 30th in runs scored and 29th in on base percentage. They are favored here with Matt Cain, though the team is 3-7 his last 10 starts. He is 0-2 against the Padres this season (5-11 all time) and has been a bit wild his last 2 starts, walking 7 in 15 innings. That offense faces Cory Luebke (3.28 ERA), who has a terrific 131-37 strikeout to walk ratio in only 120 innings. The Padres are 4-1 in Luebke's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. And the Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Play the Padres.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +137 over BOSTON

The Red Sox have dropped six in a row and nine of 11 and they have a 45-year-old struggling pitcher favored over one of the best young arms in the game. Yeah, we’ll bite. Tim Wakefield has been stuck on 199 career wins since late July. He’ll go for his ninth attempt at that illusive win and if he gets it, good for him. Fact is, the guy is no good anymore and the only reason he’s even getting close to the mound here is because Clay Buchholz, Erik Bedard and Josh Beckett are all on the mattress. There’s nothing to like about Wakefield and this gassed Sox pen laying this type of lumber. Brandon Morrow is hit and miss. Here’s a guy that can throw a two-hitter one night and then get rocked three starts in a row before throwing a five-hit shutout. The good news is that he has elite skills and the root cause of his problems is a strange home/road split. At home Morrow has been awful but on the road he’s 5-2 with a 2.97 ERA after allowing just 47 hits in 70 IP. Call it what you want but Morrow has been among the best road starters in all of baseball and the fact that we get a very decent take-back on him over Wakefield is about as sweet as it gets. Play: Toronto +137 (Risking 2 units).

L.A. Angels +106 over OAKLAND

Guillermo Moscoso has been a hidden gem for the A’s with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. But the reasons for optimism end there. Moscoso has been helped by a friendly 24% hit rate and 5% HR/F. His base skills are mediocre at best with a heavy fly-ball bias profile and a low strikeout rate. As an extreme flyball pitcher (64%), his only hope for long-term success is to maintain pinpoint control and hope they keep hitting it right at people. With a 91 MPH average fastball velocity; Moscoso does not have the stuff to grow into anything more than a fourth or fifth starter on his best day. Sell high while you can. Jerome Williams tossed his third pure-quality start in as many starts, allowing just one hit while picking up his third win this past Wednesday vs. SEA. After 26 IP, Williams owns a solid 19/4 K/BB and a nice 3.51 ERA / 3.36 xERA combination, his only blemish being a poor relief outing vs. Texas during which he allowed four of his 10 runs to date. With good 89-93 MPH velocity and a 48% groundball rate, he's now a go-to guy for the Angels down the stretch and so he should be. Fluke alert is on for Moscoso while Williams success is no accident. Play: L.A. Angels +106 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Boston Red Sox -160

Boston's veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield will get his eight chance to pick up his 200th win in this game against the Blue Jays. Wakefield has pitched well enough to pick up that win in these starts, but blown leads by the Sox bull pen has been his undoing. I like him to pick up that win in this game against Toronto's struggling ace Brandon Morrow. Morrow allowed eight runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work in his last start against Boston and has a career ERA of 9.70 against the Sox. Morrow has not been pitching well at all and has not won a game since August 17th at Seattle. Over his last three starts Morrow is 0-2 with an ERA of 9.19 and I expect him to run into more trouble in this game. Play on Boston.

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox

When the White Sox send Gavin Floyd to the hill against the Tigers at Comiskey Park Tuesday evening they will do so knowing Floyd is in commanding KW form with four walks and 29 strikeouts in his last five starts. He's also 6-1 at home with 2.98 ERA in his career starts n this series. With that we'll look for more of the same here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play in the White Sox.

Sean Murphy

GAME: Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Los Angeles Angels

There's no time for the Angels to hang their heads following back-to-back losses. They're still in the thick of the A.L. playoff hunt, currently sitting three games back of the division-leading Rangers and 5.5 games behind the Wild Card-leading Red Sox.

Last night's 6-3 loss may have been the wake-up call the Halos needed. After taking the first two games against the mighty Yankees over the weekend, they seemed to relax a bit.

Keep in mind, Los Angeles remains a solid 15-8 over its last 23 games.

The A's took the opener of this series, but it's not as if they've been playing their best baseball. They're just 3-4 over their last seven games, and 7-9 dating back to August 27th.

Jerome Williams get the call for the Angels on Tuesday. He's been a pleasant surprise since joining the rotation for three spot starts. All three of those starts have resulted in Angel victories, by a combined 23-8 score.

Note that Williams is coming off arguably the best outing of his major league career, having allowed just one earned run over eight innings of one-hit ball against the Mariners last Wednesday. He's now worked at least seven innings in all three starts this season.

Guillermo Moscoso will counter for the A's. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Royals in his last start, but keep in mind, that was on getaway day, after Kansas City had already taken two of the first three games in the series. He'll be facing a much more motivated Halos club on Tuesday night.

I won't deny the fact that Moscoso has been solid this season, particularly here at home, where he owns a sparkling 2.26 ERA. However, it's worth noting that the Angels will be getting their second look at him. Opponents have posted a 3-1 record in their second game against Moscoso this season.

This has the makings of a tight game, which will be won or lost in the latter innings. I'll give the Angels a significant advantage, as their bullpen has posted a collective 2.12 ERA over their last 10 games. By contrast, the A's 'pen has recorded a bloated 7.71 ERA over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Arizona D-backs -129

The D-backs are on fire. They've won 17 of their last 20, and I expect them to keep rolling with Cy Young candidate Ian Kennedy on the hill. Kennedy is 19-4 (22-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.90 this season. He's 9-0 (12-1 on the ML) with an ERA of 1.87 against division opponents, winning all 3 of his starts against the Dodgers this year. The D-backs have won each of his last 4 and 11 of his last 12 starts. Chad Billingsley is a quality starter, but he's struggled against division foes to the tune of 4-7 (5-8 on the ML) with an ERA or 4.94. Also, the Dodgers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last 6 home games in this series. Take Arizona.

Free MLB Play for 9/13/2011: We're siding with the OVER 9 runs tonight in Arlington as the Cleveland Indians and the Texas Rangers aim to tee off again. The over is 15-4-2 in the last 21 games these two teams have played in Texas, and is showing excellent value in this game for many reasons. Both line-ups should be well rested after a day off, and ready to go vs two slumping pitchers on the hill. RHP Justin Masterson will get the start for the Tribe, and is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over his last 3 outtings. He's facing a Rangers line-up tonight that has been batting an amazing .310 while scoring 8.43 runs/game vs RHP over their last ten games. Texas also averages 6.17 runs/game vs RHP at home on the year. Masterson has only one start vs the Rangers in Arlington in his career. But he gave up 7 earned runs through 5.1 innings in a 12-1 losing effort in that game. Meanwhile, southpaw Matt Harrison will be on the mound tonight for Texas. Harrison is 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA over his last 3 starts, and he'll be facing a Cleveland line-up here that has been averaging 5.23 runs/game vs LHP over their last ten games. Harrison has only one start vs the Tribe at home in Arlington, and he surrendered 5 earned runs in only 3.2 innings in a 7-5 defeat. 3 of Mastersons last 4 starts have gone over 9 total runs, while all 5 of Harrisons last 5 starts have seen more than 9 total runs. The Over is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 overall, and 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The Over is 3-0-2 in Rangers last 5 overall, and 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs a right handed starter. We wont worry about whether or not Texas clears the run-line in this game tonight, and just cash in on the over 9 instead.

David Banks

Tigers / White Sox Under

The AL Central leading Detroit Tigers will take to the field Wednesday night looking to snag soon to be AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander his 23rd win of the season against the division rival Chicago White Sox; first pitch from U.S. Cellular Field is set for 8:10 ET.

The AL Central race was neck and neck only a month ago with the Tigers holding three and four-game leads respectively over the Indians and Palehose, but since then, manager Jim Leyland’s squad has made a mockery of the standings and currently holds a whopping 10.5-game lead over Chicago heading into Monday night’s series opener. Detroit has pulled away by winning each of its L/9 and 19 of its L/23 since the tail end of August. In doing so, the Tigers have raced up the 2011 money list earning their betting backers a healthy $1501 overall (84-62) with $839 of that profit coming away from Comerica Park (39-33).

The White Sox have been a painful squad to watch for their Southside faithful all season long. From Adam Dunn proving to be one of the worst free agent signings in all of baseball to the starting pitching staff not living up to preseason expectations, Chicago has tripped and stumbled its way to a 73-72 overall record that’s cost its wagering supporters $494 overall. “The Cell” used to be a house of horrors for opponents to go into and win, but that’s far from been the case this season as Paul Konerko and his mates have only scratched out 33 wins in 72 tries (-$1700).

Detroit has held the upper hand in the current season series with its division rivals winning 10 of the 15 overall meetings; the ‘over’ cashed in nine of those contests. Detroit’s come out on the right side of the scoreboard in nine of Verlander’s L/10 overall starts against Chicago, which includes a perfect 4-0 tally the L/4 times he toed the bump in the Windy City. Chicago’s 1-4 the L/5 times Gavin Floyd threw at the Tigers, and he’s just 4-5 with a bloated 5.97 ERA & .261 BAA in 12 home starts. The ‘over’ is 18-7-1 in these teams L/26 overall clashes and 7-2-1 the L/10 times the rivals squared off on the Southside of Chicago.

Rocketman

Arizona @ LA Dodgers
Play: Arizona -117

Arizona is 32-12 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Arizona has won 5 of their last 6 games overall to take an 8 1/2 game lead over San Francisco in the NL West. Arizona bullpen has a 3.47 ERA on the road this year. LA Dodgers are scoring only 3.4 runs per game at home this season. Ian Kennedy is having a great season with a 19-4 record and a 2.90 ERA overall this year. He is 10-2 with a 3.00 ERA on the road this season and 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA his last 3 starts. During his last 3 starts he has struck out 24 batters while walking only 2! Wow! Chad Billingsley has a 7.30 ERA his last 3 starts. He has allowed 24 hits in his last 12.3 innings pitched. Kennedy is 3-1 overall vs LA Dodgers in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!

Dave Price

1 Unit on NY Mets -145

The Mets have the edge on the mound with Gee, who's 6-3 with an ERA of 3.31 at home this season. The Mets are 5-1 in Gee's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record and 11-4 in his last 15 starts overall vs. a team with a losing record. Also, he's 3-0 lifetime with an ERA of 3.08 in 4 starts against the Nats. Washington's Wang has been struggling. The Nats are 0-3 in his last 3 starts, during which he posted an ERA of 4.58. Plus, he's 0-3 with a 5.75 ERA in 4 starts against the NL East. We'll bet the Mets.