SPORTS ADVISORS
Colorado (82-63) at San Francisco (78-66)
The Rockies look to move a step closer to wrapping up the N.L. wild-card berth when they send ace Ubaldo Jimenez (13-10, 3.32 ERA) to the mound against the Giants’ Barry Zito (9-12, 3.99) at AT&T Park.
Colorado has followed up an eight-game winning streak with three straight losses – two in San Diego over the weekend and last night’s 9-1 setback to the Giants. The Rockies are in additional funks of 1-6 on the road, 0-4 on the highway against lefty starters and 0-6 versus winning teams, though they have won four in a row on Tuesday.
San Francisco remains 3½ games behind Colorado in the wild-card race, having lost five of its last eight, including four of six to N.L. West opponents at home. The Giants do hold a slim 9-7 lead in the season series against the Rockies, including five straight wins at home. In fact, the host has won seven straight and nine of 10 in this rivalry.
Jimenez delivered his 12th consecutive quality start on Sept. 7 at home against Cincinnati, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings, getting a no-decision as Colorado won 4-3. Jimenez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 21 of his last 25 starts, giving up two earned or less in 15 of those contests. Colorado is 7-1 in Jimenez’s last eight starts overall, but they’ve lost 10 of his 15 road efforts this year, where the right-hander is 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA.
Jimenez has faced the Giants four times this season – including twice in the last three weeks – going 2-2 with a 2.48 ERA, but 0-2 with a 3.21 ERA at AT&T Park. For his career, he’s 3-3 with a 2.43 ERA in nine starts against the Giants (1-2, 3.55 ERA in San Francisco), never allowing more than three runs in any of those nine contests.
Zito suffered a 4-2 home loss to the Padres on Wednesday, allowing three runs in five innings. The veteran southpaw has pitched very well in the second half of the season, going 4-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break, allowing three runs or fewer in every start. With Wednesday’s loss to San Diego, Zito is now 5-5 with a 3.80 ERA in 14 home starts this year (4-1, 2.61 ERA last five at home).
With Zito on the mound, the Giants are on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday, 4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 when he faces Colorado at home (2-0 this year at home). In fact, Zito has owned the Rockies, going 3-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 10 lifetime starts. In three outings this year against the Rockies, the former Cy Young winner has allowed just two runs (one earned) in 21 1/3 innings (0.42 ERA)
Colorado carries “under” trends of 6-2 overall, 7-3 on the highway, 8-4 versus N.L. West rivals, 10-4-1 on Tuesday, 45-22 overall behind Jimenez, 5-2 when Jimenez throws on the road, 4-1 when he pitches on Tuesday and 5-1 when he faces divisional foes. The over is 6-2 in San Francisco’s last eight at home, but with Zito pitching, the Giants are on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 20-8 in Game 2 of a series.
In this rivalry, the “under” is on runs of 6-2 in San Francisco, 6-2-1 when Zito faces the Rockies (4-0 last four at home) and 7-2 when Jimenez takes on the Giants.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
L.A. Angels (86-57) at Boston (84-58)
A potential divisional-round playoff preview is set for Fenway Park, where Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 9.88 ERA) is scheduled to pitch in the big leagues for the first time in nearly three months when he and the Red Sox match up against the Angels and John Lackey (10-7, 3.53).
After capping a 5-1 homestand with a 3-2 victory over the White Sox on Sunday, the Angels went to New York for a makeup game against the Yankees and fell 5-3, allowing the winning runs to score in the bottom of the eighth inning. Los Angeles is still 8-3 in its last 11 and is on further runs of 57-28 overall, 27-13 on the road, 20-8 in series openers, 47-24 against the A.L. East and 6-2 versus right-handed starters.
Boston took Monday off after an impressive three-game weekend sweep of the Rays in which the pitching staff surrendered just two runs. The Red Sox have won five straight – all during their current homestand – and are on additional upticks of 49-19 at Fenway, 41-19 in series openers, 43-14 after an off day and 36-17 on Tuesday, but Terry Francona’s squad has lost seven of its last 10 to A.L. West foes.
The Angels have taken four of six against Boston this season, all in Anaheim, and they’re 13-5 in the last 18 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last eight at Fenway. However, three of those five losses (including two in Boston) came in last year’s first-round, best-of-5 playoff series, which the Red Sox won in four games.
Lackey has delivered back-to-back complete games, including Thursday’s 3-0 shutout win over Seattle in which he scattered five hits and one walk while striking out seven. The veteran right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.35 ERA in his last three starts (all L.A. victories), giving up just 16 hits and three walks while whiffing 17 in 26 innings. Lackey is 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 12 road starts, with the Angels going 5-2 in his last seven on the highway.
Los Angeles is also 4-1 in Lackey’s last five against the A.L. East, but they’ve lost 11 of his last 15 outings against winning teams and four straight behind the big man on Tuesday. Also, L.A. is 3-13 in Lackey’s 16 career starts against the Red Sox (playoffs included), going 2-8 at Fenway Park. Last year, the Texas native faced the Red Sox four times, going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two regular season starts (one home, one road) but 0-1 with a 2.63 ERA in two playoff outings (one home, one road, with the Angels losing both). He’s 3-6 with a 5.54 ERA in 13 regular-season games against the BoSox.
This has been a nightmare season for Matsuzaka, who has battled shoulder pain and ineffectiveness all year. He’s made nine starts – the last being an 8-2 home loss to Atlanta on June 19 – and hasn’t made it through six innings in any game. He’s 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, and he’s 0-4 with an 8.55 ERA in four home starts.
The Sox are still 33-13 in Matsuzaka’s last 46 starts overall and 9-4 in his last 13 against A.L. West opponents. He’s faced the Angels three times (including in Game 2 of last year’s ALDS), allowing 12 runs in 14 2/3 innings (7.36 ERA), with Boston going 2-1.
With Lackey pitching, the Angels are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 6-2-2 on Tuesday and 4-1 when he faces Boston. Similarly, the under is 4-1-1 in Dice-K’s last six starts overall, 8-2-1 in his last 11 at home and 10-3-1 in his last 14 on Tuesday.
L.A. is riding “under” streaks of 15-3-1 overall, 6-0 on the road, 11-1-1 against right-handed starters and 5-0 on Tuesday, but the over is 36-18-4 in the Halos’ last 58 against the A.L. East. Conversely, the over is 16-7 in Boston’s last 23 at Fenway Park, 12-1 in its last 13 series openers, 5-2 in its last seven against the A.L. West and 4-1 in its last five on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
DUNKEL
Colorado at San Francisco
The Giants look to build on their 5-2 record in Barry Zito's last 7 starts as a home underdog. San Francisco is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+130)
Game 951-952: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 14.843; Philadelphia (Lee) 14.233
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-290); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+250); Over
Game 953-954: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Misch) 13.845; Atlanta (Hanson) 16.125
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-260); Over
Game 955-956: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 15.150; Cincinnati (Wells) 13.991
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-170); Over
Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.370; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.716
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); N/A
Game 959-960: Florida at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 15.150; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.472
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+220); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.429; San Diego (Leblanc) 14.858
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Under
Game 963-964: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.136; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.172
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-240); Under
Game 965-966: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.093; San Francisco (Zito) 16.008
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+130); Over
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Tejeda) 15.374; Detroit (Washburn) 15.001
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.632; NY Yankees (Mitre) 15.230
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.048; Baltimore (Berken) 14.828
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under
Game 973-974: LA Angels at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.730; Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.717
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Under
Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.466; Texas (McCarthy) 15.569
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-205); Over
Game 977-978: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.025; Minnesota (Baker) 14.866
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-205); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+185); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 15.299; Seattle (Snell) 16.504
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Over
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee +115 at CUBS
Getting hard to find value in MLB as we head down the stretch, but we do like the Brewers to come through as the small road dog this Tuesday night.
Milwaukee just pulled off the three-game road sweep at Arizona, but lost a close one last night to the Cubbies.
That's OK in our minds, as Carlos Zambrano has been a bust at Wrigley this season, as he is just 2-4 in his home starts this year, sporting a 4.64 ERA.
Yovanni Gallardo hasn't been great this year, but he does own 12 season wins, including a May win at home over the Cubbies, going 5 frames while allowing 2 runs to score.
Milwaukee's numbers at Chicago are respectable, as the Cubs hold just a 13-10 edge since 2007 at home since 2007.
We feel the underdog is the way to go in this Central Division matchup on Tuesday night.
Play on the Brew-Crew.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Stephen Nover
Colorado at SAN FRANCISCO
On the surface this total may seem fair, but I find it too low.
Colorado is healthy again with Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart and Dexter Fowler all back playing after being out. They represent a combined 52 homers and 51 stolen bases.
Giants starter Barry Zito has allowed five runs in his last two starts spanning nine innings. He's given up a combined 16 hits and walks during his past two outings.This is the Rockies' fourth look at Zito this season. They'll find him much easier to reach base on than last night's starter, Tim Lincecum.
The Giants' have gone over in their last four games. They don't have good season stats offensively, but in the last few weeks the Giants have upgraded their hititng attack adding Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. So their season stats are misleading.
Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez could be hitting the wall. He's thrown 195 1/3 innings this season. His career-high in innings pitched is 198 2/3, which he threw last season.
Jimenez has yielded nine walks in his last four starts. He's also surrendered a home run in each of his past four starts. Those are red flags.
Unless Lincecum is pitching, a Giants total shouldn't be this low.
3♦ ROCKIES/GIANTS OVER
Karl Garrett
Kansas City +160 at DETROIT
On a 3-1 free play run the last 4 days.
Tuesday night gonna go with the underdog Royals to come through against a Detroit team that was just stretched to 10-innings last night in a win over Toronto, just their 2nd win in their last 7 games.
Kansas City is playing free-and-easy right now, as they have won 6 of their last 7 games, and pitcher Robinson Tejeda certainly looks like he is back at the major league level to stay, working his last 11 innings with Kansas City without allowing an earned run to score, go enough for a 1-0 mark. That win did come against the Tigers his last time out by the way.
The Royals are just 2-4 this season in the Motor City, but own a 9-6 mark at Comerica dating back to last season.
Jarrod Washburn has not been what the Tigers hoped for since joining Detroit, and his last 3 starts show 14 runs allowed in 17 innings of work. Included is 3 runs allowed in 5 innings of work in his last effort against the Royals.
This price is just too high.
Take the Royals in the dog role.
1♦ KANSAS CITY
Dominic Fazzini
Toronto -130 at N.Y. YANKEES
Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay (14-9, 3.03 ERA) hasn't been as sharp as he was earlier in the season, but he's been great against the Yankees this year.
Halladay is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA in four starts (three complete games) vs. New York in 2009. The right-hander tossed a one-hit shutout in a home victory over the Bronx Bombers on Sept. 4.
Halladay also is 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA in his last nine starts against the Yankees, and 17-6 with a 2.83 in 36 career games (34 starts) vs. the AL East leaders.
New York starter Sergio Mitre (3-2, 7.02) has been hit hard by the Blue Jays this season, going 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA in three outings. He allowed a career-high 11 runs (nine earned) and 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings vs. Toronto on Sept. 6.
The Yankees are crusing toward the playoffs, but they're going to suffer a little setback tonight at the hands of Halladay. Take the Blue Jays in this one.
3♦ TORONTO
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels -105 at BOSTON
Hit my third straight FREE winner on Monday night when the Raiders did just what I thought they would, hang tight with the Chargers and get inside that big number. Tonight I'm on the diamond with a comp play on the Angels as they visit Boston.
Good price to take a red-hot John Lackey (10-7, 3.53 ERA) and the Angels to get the job done at Fenway Park in Boston.
Safe to say there hasn't been a better pitcher than Lackey in his last two games, throwing back-to-back complete games, including Thursday's 3-0 win over Seattle as he scattered five hits and struck out seven. He's got a 0.35 ERA in his last three starts and struck out 17 in 26 innings. Lackey went 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two regular season starts against Boston last season but 0-1 in two playoff outings.
The Angels are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings with Boston, 4-2 this season and 6-2 in their last eight trips to Fenway Park. Los Angeles is on hot streaks of 8-3 in its last 11, 57-28 overall, 27-13 on the road, 20-8 in series openers and 47-24 against the A.L. East. Nothing worries these guys. The Angels are good and they know it.
The Red Sox are starting Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 9.88) who hasn't pitched in the league in almost three months. He's been battling shoulder injuries all season and last pitched on June 19 when the Sox lost to the Braves 8-2. He is 0-4 in his last four starts at Fenway with an 8.55 ERA.
Again, a great opportunity to get the league's hottest pitcher in Lackey at a great price. Play the Angels in this one.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS
Frank Jordan
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Chicago White Sox
Freddie Garcia is going up against his former team as the ChiSox are in Seattle. Seattle has fairly new acquisition Ian Snell on the mound. So the question will the new Seattle pitcher outpitch the old Seattle pitcher? Answer NO. Look for Garcia to get geared up for this game and pitch well as the offense backs him up in a 7-5 win. Play Chicago White Sox
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays finally broke the long losing streak last night. They allowed 4 runs in the first inning then rallied to a solid 8-4 win. Tonight they have a nice pitching adavantage with J.Niemann. In Niemann road starts this year Tampa is 10-7 with a 4.10 road era. Not bad considering the division he pitches in. Niemann has been especially good of late with a 1.67 era,allowing just 4 runs in 21 plus innings. In his starts vs the Orioles he is 3-1. Baltimore counters with young right hander Berken. In his home starts Berken is just 3-8 with a 4.95 era. In his lone start vs the Rays he was roughed up for 5 runs in 5 innings.
LT Profits
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros has had amazing success vs. the Cincinnati Reds throughout his career, while Kip Wells had been in good form prior to a rough outing last time out, so do not look for much scoring at Great American Ball Park tonight.
Sure, Oswalt got lit up for six runs and 10 hits in only two innings his last time out, but that bad start came out of the blue after he had tossed four straight Quality Starts prior to that effort. What better opponent is there for Oswalt to get back on track than these Reds?
After all, all that he has done vs. Cincinnati in his career is go 23-1 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 201 innings! He has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts vs. the Reds, with two of those outings coming this season. As if that is not enough, Oswalt is catching a Cincinnati lineup here that is batting a pathetic .198 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games.
Now, Wells has a similar recent pattern as Oswalt does in that he had a bad outing last time out after allowing three runs or less in his previous three starts. We will grant him a mulligan though, as that last bad start did come in Colorado, so he should do better here back at sea level. Another reason for optimism is that the Houston offense has been nothing special, averaging just 3.80 runs the last 10 games.
Finally, the Under is now 13-4 in the last 17 head-to-head meetings after the 3-1 Reds win here last night, and we do not expect tonight to be any different.
Pick: Astros/Reds Under 8.5
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels journey into Boston to meet the Red Sox when they send John Lackey to the mound against Daisuke Matsusaka at Fenway Park tonight. Lackey enters tonight's game 3-0 in his last three starts with 3 walks and 17 strikeouts along with an eye-opening 0.35 ERA. On the flip side, Matsusaka returns from an extended stay on the DL and has dropped each of his last four team starts at home with an 8.55 ERA. Back the better team and the better arm here tonight.
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox
Play: Los Angeles Angels
This is an excellent price for the Angels who have a big pitching edge in this series opener. Los Angeles dropped its game in New York last night which was a makeup from a May rainout against the Yankees. Normally the travel would be an issue by playing three games in three days in three different cities but the trip from New York to Boston is minimal. Boston is a perfect 5-0 in its current homestand as it has been fueled by excellent starting pitching. The Red Sox have allowed a run or less in four of those games and an average of 1.4 rpg in the five games but that can all change tonight. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be making his first start since June as he has been out with shoulder issues. He has been pretty decent in his rehab assignments but this is a whole new situation here. He was dreadful prior to his DL stint and there is no reason to believe that he comes in here and dominates. Despite a slowdown in September, the Angels came into Monday's game fourth in the American League in slugging percentage and total bases so they can definitely make things rough once again. Matsuzaka has not faced the Angels this season but in three career starts he has a 7.36 ERA and that is when he was actually good. Going for the Angels is John Lackey who has come back really strong following a slow start to the season. Through eight starts he had a 5.83 ERA but in 15 starts since then, he has posted a 2.55 ERA and he is coming off back-to-back nine-inning performances. He has a 0.35 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over his last three starts and his last four starts against Boston have been quality outings. The Angels are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss while Boston is a rough 1-6 in its last seven games against a team with a winning percentage that is better than .600. Los Angeles has taken six of the last seven meetings in Boston. 3* Los Angeles Angels
St.Bernadines Sports
1* Two Team Parlay Phillies -290/ Cardinals -240
(G Mock - R must Start C Lee - L must Start) (S West - L must Start Wainwright - R must Start)
Two great teams and two great pitchers. Lee has given up several runs in last few starts but I look for a very solid outing from him tonight. Wainwright is one of the Sho'Nuff' studs for the Cards. I had the Cards last night and I will take them again tonight in this two team parlay.
2** Tampa Bay Rays -138
The wait is over. The Rays finally ended their losing streak. They are all but out of the wild card race unless several teams start a similar losing streak that the Rays just ended and the Rays win nearly every game. Well anything can happen but let's look at why the Rays will win tonight...... Let's forget for a moment that they have their ace on the mound, Jeff Niemann. Niemann has not had a winning decision in his last three outings, even while pitching an average of 1.66 ERA in those 3 starts. It would not surprise me to see Niemann allow more runs tonight than he has in his last 3 but he should pitch well enough to get the job done. The main reason they will win tonight is they are recovering from a complete lack of self confidence and belief that they can win. To say they have just gone through a meltdown is an understatement. The Rays will win tonight because they are starting to believe in themselves again. It is very hard to be a team that has talent and has confidence. The Rays have not won 73 games this season without having the tools. They certainly had everything in place to make a run at the playoffs again.The line at the time I am writing this is only -138. This line is really off. Look for another win tonight as the Rays beat the O's for a second straight time.
Dave Cokin
MILWAUKEE BREWERS / CHICAGO CUBS
Take CHICAGO CUBS
It took nearly the entire season, and it's too late to be meaningful. But the Cubs are actually playing crisp fundamental baseball and they're winning games. Carlos Zambrano is evidently healthy enough off his last couple starts. Yovanni Gallardo is tough enough for the Brewers, but I'm giving the edge tonight to the Cubs.
Jim Feist
COLORADO ROCKIES / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
You don't find the Giants a home dog very often. San Francisco has had a terrific home record this season, tops in the NL. Starter Barry Zito (3.99 ERA) has been on his game all season and has a 3.12 ERA his last three starts. The team is 7-3 his last 10 starts, allowing 3 runs or less in every one (and 2 or less in 7 of them). He has dominated this Colorado lineup, with a 0.42 ERA in 21 innings this season. A great spot to back the home dog. Play the Giants.