EZWINNERS
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
Play: Houston Astros -$161
Roy Oswalt has dominated the Cincinnati Reds in his career. Roy O has three no decisions against the Reds this season with an ERA of just 2.37 in those three games. Cincinnati sends 32 year old journeyman Kip Wells to the mound who was cut by the Nationals of all teams in July. Wells had over achieved in his first few starts for the Reds, but was hammered by the Rockies in his last outing. I look for Oswalt to pick up the win here and add to his 23-1 career record against Cincinnati. The Reds are only 4-11 in the last fifteen games as a home underdog. Play on Houston.
BIG AL
Milwaukee at Chicago
It always seems to be an interesting event when the big righthander Carlos Zambrano takes the mound for the Cubs these days. Zambrano picked up his first win since July 22 in his last start vs. the Pirates. Big Z gave up two runs on five hits over six innings and struck out eight and the veteran wasn't happy when Lou Piniella pulled him in the sixth. He and his manager had an animated talk on the mound that continued in the dugout. "I wanted to pitch another inning but it's Lou's decision," said Zambrano, who struck out eight. What will these two have in store for us tonight? Hard to say, but it may not be good for Milwaukee. Although he does not have a victory against the Brewers this season, he has a 2.77 ERA in a couple of starts, and last season Big Z was completely dominant against this team, going 1-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three starts against them. The Brewers will send righthander Yovani Gallardo to the mound tonight and Gallardo returns to the site of his devastating knee injury on May 1 of last season for the first time since it happened. And he comes in to Wrigley after skipping a start as the Brewers are concerned about Gallardo's workload but apparently don't want to shut him down for the season. His numbers on the season are extremely good, but he has shown signs of wearing down in his recent starts and he only has one victory in his last four trips to the mound, and that was against the Nationals.
PLAY CHICAGO
JeffAlexande
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -110
Bottom Line: I'll back the Red Birds on the run line tonight for a 1 Unit behind ace Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is an unstoppable 18-3 against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the Cards winning by an average score of 5.8 to 2.4 in these games. Plus, he is a perfect 9-0 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the Cards winning by an average score of 6.0 to 2.0 in these games. Lastly, St. Louis is 18-1 as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season, winning by an average score of 5.2 to 2.4 in these spots. Take the Cards.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -136
The Rays finally got back in the win column Monday and I expect them to stay there tonight. The Rays are 26-9 in the last 35 meetings in this series and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Baltimore . The Orioles are just 1-6 in Berken's last 7 home starts and 3-12 in his last 15 starts overall. The Rays are now 23-9 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record and a perfect 9-0 in Niemann's last 9 starts during game 2 of a series. Plus, the Rays are 12-3 in his last 15 starts as a favorite. I'll bet the Rays for a unit here.
Larry Ness
CHC (-125) vs MIL
The Cubs have fallen out of this year's playoff race (currently 9 1/2 games back of the Cardinals), following consecutive NL Central titles. The team's downfall has been its road play, going 31-40 (.437) after a two-year road mark of 83-78 (.516) in 2007-08. The Brewers ended a playoff drought which had gone back to 1982 by capturing the NL wild card spot in 2008 but the Brewers haven't been in the playoff discussion for quite some time now, entering this game at 69-74. Milwaukee swept a three-game series in Arizona over the weekend but last night's 2-0 loss drops them to 35-37 on the road in 2009, allowing 5.08 RPG. The Cubs went 99-63 (.611) at Wrigley the last two seasons and are not far off that pace in 2009, entering this game 43-28 (.606). Chicago won three straight at Pittsburgh before returning to Wrigley for a six-game homestand and are 3-1 through the first four games. Carlos Zambrano entered this year with six consecutive 13-win seasons but he's just 8-6 with a 3.77 ERA and has just four scheduled starts remaining. He's caused his usual amount of drama this year, exemplified when he argued with manager Lou Piniella when he was pulled in the seventh inning of his last outing, as the heated "discussion" continued in the dugout. However, that doesn't concern me, as that's been Zambrano's M.O. for years. He's again pitching better on the road (3.03 ERA) than at home (4.64), as from 2006-08 his road ERA was 3.30 (team went 32-14) and his home ERA was 4.14 (team went 25-27). That being said, the Cubs remain a solid home team while the Brewers are pretty much "stuck in neutral." Yovani Gallardo (12-11, 3.59 ERA) gets the start for the Brewers. He's 2-4 with a 5.13 ERA over his last seven starts and hasn't started since September 5. The Brewers are trying to limit his workload now that they are out of contention, as Gallardo tore his ACL at Wrigley last year and missed most of 2008. Not much is on the line in this series for two clubs which were in last year's postseason. However, Chicago is trying for three straight winning seasons for the first time since a six-year run from 1967-72, while Milwaukee is attempting to record three consecutive winning years for the first time since 1978-80. I expect theCcubs will accomplish their goal of a third straight winning season, while look for the Brewers to fall short of their goal. Back to this game. Take the Cubs.
Vernon Croy
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
We are getting solid value here against tonight with the Rays who have the superior pitcher on the mound. Jeff Niemann (12-5, 3.57 ERA) has pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 1.66 and he allowed just 1 earned run in his last start against the Orioles back on August.19 while lasting 7.3 innings. The Rays are a perfect 9-0 in Niemann's last 9 starts in game two of a series and they are 12-3 in his last 15 starts as a favorite. The Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing record at home and the Rays are 26-9 in their last 35 games against the Orioles. Take the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday night.
John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they host Anaheim set to start at 7:10 EST. Dice-K will be on the hill for the Red Sox making his first start since June 19th. Not many starters can throw 8 innings or more over 3 starts, but that is what Lackey has done and fatigue is certainly an issue entering this game. Boston is a great FB hitting team and will attack early in the count. Lackey has not done well in Boston throughout his career either. Boston’s starter pitching has been quite good recently and a solid start by Dice-K would only make it that much stronger entering the playoffs. It may well be against the Angels – again and sending them a solid message tonight that they can beat the Angels without their 3 best starters would be a significant victory. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 193-138 making a whopping 81.9 units since 1997. Play against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts. Her eis a second system that has gone 62-29 making 43.5 units since 1997. Play on AL home teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.900 or worse on the season and after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. Take Boston
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
For a number of different reasons I believe there's good value on the home-side in this situation: One game after setting a record for consecutive 200-hit seasons, Ichiro Suzuki tries to help the Mariners open a six-game homestand on a positive note when they face the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night. The Mariners will give the ball to Ian Snell (4-2, 5.13 ERA), who had his four-game winning streak halted with a 6-3 loss at Los Angeles on Wednesday. The right-hander, who allowed four runs with five walks in 5 1-3 innings, had won four consecutive starts with a 2.49 ERA; I expect him to return to form tonight. Seattle does well in this spot as it is 5-3 (+2 units) after shutting out their opponent (are off a 5-0 victory against Texas). A member of the Mariners from 1999-2004, Freddy Garcia has gone 2-3 with a 6.28 ERA in six starts against his former club. He hasn’t faced Seattle since September 2006 and I expect him to struggle again this evening as the White Sox are a poor 10-14 (-2.5 units) as a road dog of +100 to +125. When taking all of the above into account, I recommend a play on the MARINERS!
Scott Rickenbach
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
Before yesterday’s win, the Rays had lost 11 straight games and, being knocked out of the race for the playoffs has certainly taken the air out of Tampa Bay’s sails! Also, the Orioles poor overall record this season hides the fact that they are very nearly a .500 team at Camden Yards this season and note that the Rays have only won 40% of their road games this season! You can see the home dog value here with the O’s. We also feel that Jason Berken is offering good value here. His 4-11 record obscures the fact that he’s been maturing as his rookie season has gone on. Berken has lasted at least five innings in each of his last seven starts and he’s allowed three earned runs or less in all but one of those. He’s learning to do a better job of pitching with men on base and that shows in that, other than one bad start during this stretch of seven starts, Berken allowed just 14 earned runs in the other 32.1 innings. That’s a respectable 3.90 ERA that’s truly “hidden” right now.
The other half of the starting pitching “equation” here is Jeff Niemann of the Rays. The big right-hander has become more hittable as the season has gone on. Even though he’s allowed four earned runs in his last three starts, note that Niemann has given up 41 hits in his last 40.2 innings on the mound. In other words, the Rays rookie has certainly not been unhittable and note that the Rays have lost six of his last nine starts. Also, Niemann has given up at least four earned runs in four of his last nine starts! Additionally, even though Niemann is 4-1 in his career against the Rays, they have hit .295 against him and they just saw him on August 19th. We like the O’s bats to do some damage at home here and we expect Baltimore’s starter, Berken, to come up with a strong start at home. The Rays snapped their 11 game losing streak yesterday but, often in the past, you will see a team that snaps a long, losing streak come right back the next day and resume the losing. One game doesn’t often put a team right back on course! Consider a small play on Baltimore on the money line on Tuesday night.
Doc's Sports
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Seattle has won 8 of its last 11 home games. The White Sox have lost 11 of their last 15 road games. The Mariners starter, Ian Snell, is 4-1, 1.67ERA in his last five starts.
Ben Burns
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
The line on this game has fallen to the point where I now believe the Rangers provide us with some value. McCarthy is 7-2 as a starter and that includes a 4-0 record (Rangers are 5-1) in his six home starts. During that 6-game stretch, he's got a very solid 3.31 ERA and 1.019 WHIP. His lone home start against Oakland resulted in a 14-1 victory. McCarthy allowed just three hits and one run in that game, lasting six innings. That's almost the exact same stat-line he had in his most recent home start, a 5-2 victory over the Jays. In that game, he lasted 6 1/3 innings, also allowing just three hits and one run. He's 2-0 since returning from the disabled list and was quoted as saying: "I feel good, I feel consistent, I feel I'm where I need to be..."
Edgar Gonzalez will be making just his second road start of the season. Unfortunately for him, it comes against the same team which beat him in his first road start. In that game, in a span of just five innings, the Rangers managed eight hits, three walks and five runs against Gonzalez. That gives him a 9.00 ERA and 2.20 WHIP on the road and against the Rangers. While he won't have to face a couple of the Rangers' big bats, I still expect him to have some trouble once again. The Rangers come in badly needing a victory and after getting shutout in back to back games, they're due for a breakout performance at the plate. Note that Gonzalez has a 4.92 ERA in 23 appearances overall and that the A's have lost all three of his starts. Consider laying the wood.
Tom Freese
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Under
Atlanta is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 home games vs. lefty starters and they are 15-7-1 UNDER when their opponent scored two runs or less in their last game. Starting pitcher Tommy Hanson has allowed 10 runs total in his last 7 starts. New York starter Pat Misch has allowed 8 runs total in his 3 starts this year. The Mets are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games vs. righty starters and they are 5-1 UNDER in Game 1 of a series. New York is 15-6-1 UNDER their last 22 games at Atlanta. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jeff Benton
Florida at ST. LOUIS
I blew it with my two premium Monday Night Football releases, but I did nail the Patriots-Bills OVER the total as my free selection. For Tuesday, it’s back to baseball and I’ll take the Cardinals on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Marlins.
I’m all about Adam Wainwright here, as the St. Louis right-hander has thrown himself into contention in the N.L. Cy Young Award race with a dominating season that’s received little attention. Wainwright is 18-7 with a 2.59 ERA, and he’s been damn-near untouchable in the second half of the season, going 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break.
The Cardinals are 22-8 when Wainwright takes the mound this season, including 7-0 in his last seven, and 16 of those 22 wins have come by multiple runs. That includes a 13-4 rout of the Marlins in Florida on June 10, when Wainwright gave up four runs in seven innings (but he was grooving the ball over the plate that day, pitching with a huge lead. He also started against the Fish in 2007 and 2008, giving up a total of three runs in 14 innings, and St. Louis won those two games, also, by scores of 3-1 and 5-2 (covering the run line at home).
As for the Marlins and their starter – lefty Sean West – all you need to know is this: He’s allowed nine runs in his last two starts – both on the road – spanning just a total of seven innings (11.57 ERA). Including those two putrid outings, West now has a 6.81 ERA on the road for the season.
Finally, check out these trends: With last night’s come-from-behind 11-6 win over the Marlins, the Cardinals are now 26-9 in their last 35 overall, 39-13 in their last 52 as a favorite and they’ve won 21 of the last 29 meetings with Florida, with the last 15 of those wins coming by multiple runs. Lay the run line with the eventual N.L. Central champs.
3♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Michael Cannon
Cleveland at MINNESOTA
A nice free winner on the over in last night’s Bills-Patriots game. That late rally by the Pats allowed us to cash in.
Take the Twins on the run line tonight over the Indians.
Scott Baker gets the start and he’s owned the Tribe this year. The right-hander is 4-0 with a 0.93 ERA in four starts against the Indians this year. Baker has also posted a 3-1 mark with a 1.74 ERA in six career home starts against Cleveland.
Cleveland has lost six of its last seven and will start Fausto Carmona tonight.
The right-hander has been brutal this year, going 3-10 with a 6.48 ERA. Carmona hasn’t had any success against the Twins this year either, going 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in three starts.
Finally, Carmona is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts.
Take the Twins on the run line tonight as they grab the easy win.
4♦ MINNESOTA -1.5
Dave Busk
Take Boston (+1.00) over Anaheim
With Anaheim six games in front of Texas for the division and pretty much have the division wrapped up and the Red Sox's four and half in front of Texas for the wild card this series doesn't seem life or death for either ball club. The Angels send John Lackey to hill who has been in great form in his last three starts lasting 27 innings and allowing just one earned run and has pitched complete games in each of his last two start's. Lackey has also thrown 115, 106 and a 110 pitches over those three start's, I don't think the Angels will let his pitch count climb two high here. Lackey has also struggled in Fenway Park with a 6.34 era in eight starts here. The Red Sox's will send Daisuke Matsuzaka to the bump making his first start since June 19th after spending time on the disabled list. No doubt he will be on a pitch count here and if we can get five innings I would be satisfied. The Red Sox's bullpen is rested and this is the perfect spot to work Matsuzaka in. Take the small home dog tonight.