Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday September, 18

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. NY Yankees
Pick: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees hope to see the Andy Pettitte of old when he returns to the mound on Tuesday night. The southpaw is planning on throwing right around 60-70 pitches as he works his way back from injury. Pettitte was 3-3 with a 3.22 ERA in nine starts before his injury. He had allowed 9 runs and 15 hits in his last 17 innings. Pettitte is 16-11 with a 4.40 ERA in 35 career starts against Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion (7-24) and Jeff Mathis (4-11) have good numbers against the Yankees’ starter. Toronto has gone Over the total in 28 of their 43 games against left-handed starters. They are hitting .246 in those games while scoring 4.5 runs per contest. David Phelps is scheduled to back Pettitte up and he hasn't been his best lately either.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ricky Romero has been historically bad this season for the Jays. He is 8-14 with a 5.87 ERA in 29 starts with 18 of those games going Over the total. Romero has allowed 12 runs and 21 hits in his last three starts. He has struggled against the Yankees going 3-7 with a 5.00 ERA in 13 career starts against them. Romero has allowed 11 runs and 21 hits in his last three starts against New York. The Yankees are hitting .260 at home and they’ve scored over 5 runs per game in their last seven games. Toronto's bullpen has been a mixed bag going 19-18 with a 4.06 ERA on the season. These two teams have played 14 Overs in their last 23 meetings at Yankee Stadium, and we expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night as the Blue Jays and Yankees play another high-scoring game.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore vs. Seattle
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We won with Baltimore last night and we will come back with the Orioles again on Tuesday. The Orioles avoided a road sweep with a win on Sunday at Oakland and followed that up with an easy series opening win last night. Baltimore trails the Yankees by just a half-game in the American League East and while it holds one of the two Wild Card spots in the American League, it is just three games ahead of the Angels so the Orioles cannot afford to let up, making this an important series. After losing the first meeting this year, Baltimore has won the last six games against Seattle and is 9-3 in its last 12 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Wei-Yin Chen gets the call tonight and while he has been inconsistent of late, his good starts have been exceptional. He has five quality outings in his last eight starts including two of three on the road. He faced Seattle back in July and held it to two runs on two hits in 7.1 innings and the Orioles are 4-0 in his last four road starts against teams with a losing record. The Mariners won their first two games of their roadtrip in Toronto but dropped three of the last four before heading back home where they currently own a four-game losing streak after the loss from last night. The offense has been non-existent of late, scoring three runs or less in 12 of the last 16 games including eight of 10 at home. Seattle is 2-11 in its last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Erasmo Ramirez will be making his second start since getting recalled from Tacoma and his first one was a successful one as he allowed just two runs in seven innings at Toronto. He has a 4.05 ERA in five starts and run support has been an issue at home as he has received only five runs in three starts. The Orioles are 15-7 in their last 22 road games against right-handed starters.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Milwaukee
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The Brewers' (74-72) Yovani Gallardo (15-8, 3.72 ERA) is set to square off against the Pirates' (74-72) AJ Burnett (15-7, 3.66 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Gallardo gave up two runs over seven frames, striking out six and walking three to go along with four hits to beat the Braves 8-2 on Wednesday night. The hard throwing right-hander has posted a very respectable 3.72 ERA over his last ten starts. Gallardo has always faired well against the Pirates as well, sporting a lifetime record of 8-2 with a 2.80 ERA vs. them.
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Burnett lost his third straight start on Wednesday, going six frames while giving up two runs in a 2-1 setback to the Reds. He's 0-3 over his last five outings.
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These two teams, and starters are moving in opposite directions.
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Pittsburgh has lost 18 of its last 25; Milwaukee has gone 20-6 since mid-August.
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You'll want to keep your eye on the Brewers' Aramis Ramirez, who has feasted on Pirates' pitching, hitting .458 with two long-balls and 12 RBIs in his last six vs. them.
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A big disadvantage for the home side here: the Pirates won 3-0 in Chicago last night, a game which was delayed for three hours due to rain, and ended at 1:28 AM CDT. Expect the home side to be a bit sluggish here.
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I'll recommend laying what I deem to be a very reasonable price on the surging visiting side, and its red hot starter!

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Cleveland has a losing home record and the Indians are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter. They face righty P.J. Walters of the Twins and the Indians are 14-42 in their last 56 overall. Cleveland goes with lefty David Huff, who has a losing record against Minnesota and has below average stuff. The Indians are 7-23 in their last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 6-20 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. And the Twins are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland. Play the Twins!

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Horrid scheduling spot for the Pirates as they are off the very late game at Wrigley and now facing a rested and surging Brewers aquad. Advantage Milwaukee!

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado / San Francisco Over 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jeff Francis and Tim Lincecum face off in San Francisco on Tuesday night. Even though most of the damage, including the two starts against San Francisco, has been done at Coors Field for Francis this season, he still has a 4.11 ERA on the road this season. Like most of Colorado's starters, Francis isn't going deep into games at all, averaging less than five innings per start over 20 starts this season. The two starts against San Francisco were horrendous for Francis, allowing 11 runs on 16 hits in 5.2 innings. Meanwhile, Lincecum continues to have a mediocre season. Over his last six home starts, Lincecum has a 4.81 ERA. His command is starting to be erratic again, with 16 walks in his last 23.2 innings of work. Colorado has had some success against Lincecum this season, with a .296 average against him in 28.1 innings, scoring 17 runs in five starts.

SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH +112 over Milwaukee

These two are virtually tied in the Wild Card race with both being 2½-games back. What we know for sure is that the Brewers are not even average on the road with a 28-43 mark while the Pirates are 42-30 at home.

A.J. Burnett posted a 5.18 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in August and a 4.95 ERA over the past month. Don’t be concerned, as he’s been the victim of a 37%/67% hit rate/strand rate. His base skills over that span were as good as or better than they’ve been all year. A 57% groundball rate and 31 K’s in 30 innings reveals that Burnett is still dealing it. He’s also 8-3 at home with a 3.08 ERA.

Yovani Gallardo hasn’t quite made good on the Cy Young promise of 2011. He’s walked 72 batters, he’s 6-5 on the road with a 3.89 ERA and current Pirate batters have hit .293 against him in 116 career AB’s. Again, we stress that the Brewers struggle miserably away from Miller Park. With their ace going, Burnett and the Pirates offer up all the value here.

Oakland +140 over DETROIT

This series should have a playoff feel with both teams fighting to earn their way in. The A’s are tied with Baltimore atop the Wild Card standings and three back of the Rangers for the AL West lead. The Tigers are not in as good shape, as they’re 5½ back in the Wild Card and three back of the White Sox for the AL Central title. With just 16 games remaining, there’s much more pressure on the Tigers, as they were expected to run away with this division while the A’s had no expectations.

Oakland’s A.J. Griffin rejoined the rotation on September 1 after missing close to a month due to injury. Since then, he has made three starts, allowing only two earned runs in 20.1 innings. The A’s have won eight of Griffin’s last nine starts. He’s 4-0 on the road with a 1.15 ERA. Overall he’s 6-0 with an xERA of 3.07. While Griffin’s current stats are unsustainable, he does own solid skills and he continues to win games.

The Tigers are coming off a three-game weekend series in Cleveland, followed by a crucial make-up game yesterday in Chicago. Consecutive losses find them in this hole. Getting out isn’t easy. Max Scherzer is wildly good. He often falls behind hitters but he has an eye-opening 220 K’s in 177 innings. What’s concerning is a fly-ball bias profile, a high line-drive rate and too many balls leaving the yard. He’s a power pitcher but has been lit up more times than Griffin and we’re not so sure he deserves this billing over a Griffin/A’s combination that isn’t losing very often.

GoodFella

Orioles / Mariners Under 7

Noesi gets the start, as he is back up from AAA, where he fared no better than he has in the big leagues this season. I expect him to struggle again vs a Orioles club that has had success vs him. Tillman now ready to get back in the rotation, as he is coming off the DL, & from what I have read, he will not be a "limited pitch count" tonight. He has pitched very well of late & vs these Mariners, and I fully expect him to out pitch Noesi and hand the ball over to their strong bullpen. For me, this is a solid price on the O's tonight, as they have lost 2 of their L/3 at Oakland & I look for them to get back on track in this spot tonight. My money is on the ORIOLES tonight.

Ross KingFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play:Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay has lost 6 of 7 and their offence has been pathetic to say the least and a trip to the posteseason is officially over.Now Tampa Bay can play better with no pressure on them.A closer look reveals Hellickson is 0-2 with a 2.85 e.r.a in his last 4 starts while his opponent Dubront is 0-5 with a 7.38 e.r.a in his last 8 starts.Boston is 5-10 in September and the last 3 seasons 25-44.Boston is 16-26 versus teams with a winning record in the second half of the season.Take Tampa Bay who are 10-3 after 3 consecutive loses and 24-8 the last 3 seasons and Longoria should give this offence some spark as your freeplay winner.

Ray MonohanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Milwaukee BrewersFO FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers will open this three-game series with Yovani Gallardo on the mound. The right-hander is 15-8 this season with an ERA of 3.72. Gallardo is 8-2 against the Pirates with a 2.80 ERA. The Pirates will turn to AJ Burnett. The right-hander is winless in his last five starts but has only given-up 14 earned runs during that span. Burnett is 2-3 against the Brewers with an ERA of 5.23. Milwaukee is a stellar 12-1 in Gallardo’s last 13 starts against the Pirates and 4-1 in his last five starts in Pittsburgh, and 17-4 in Gallardos last 21 starts. Going farther back the Brew Crew are 54-17 in the last 71 meetings. Game 1 of this series goes to Milwaukee. Some more trends pointing to a Brewers W. Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a nifty simple little system that has cashed the last 6 times. We want to play on any home team if both teams come in off a home win where they scored 10 or more runs. Arizona has Ian Kennedy going and he has won 18 of 22 when he had more strikeouts than hits in his last start. He has a solid 6-1 record vs the Padres with a 3.00 era. He will take on E. Stults here tonight and he was a solid in a 7 innings in late August vs Arizona. Things will get tougher this time around. Look for Arizona to cool down the Padres and take game one of the series.

Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore -123THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We won easily with Baltimore last night and will do so again! Seattle was hot out of the ASB with a 31-20 mark. But they have returned to reality on a 3-7 slide. Tonight is an ideal situation to fade Ramirez. You see, he comes off his first MLB win ever, a natural let down spot. That would be a mistake against Baltimore who trails NYY by only ½ game, yet holds a 3 game Wild Card lead. Baltimore remains on runs of 31-15 and 16-7. Baltimore has also defeated Seattle 6 consecutive times. Chen has been Baltimore's most consistent pitcher this season. We are eager to back him following a return to form game in which he allowed just 2 runs and 7 1/3 IP.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit/ Oakland Under 7.5: Both of these pitchers are hot right now and should how down a couple of solid offenses in this one. AJ Griffin has been special for Oakland thus far as he is 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA overall. On the road he has a 1.15 ERA, while in his last 3 overall that ERA is just 0.89, while his WHIP is 0.79 over the same stretch. Griffin has allowed 2 ER's or less in 9 of his 11 starts and will be taking on a Detroit offense that is averaging just 3.8 rpg in this last 10 games. Granted those games were on the road, but this offense doesn't seem right at the moment. Max Scherzer has been dynamite of late, allowing 2 ER's or less in his last 7 starts, while posting a 1.28 ERA over that stretch. His WHIP in his last 3 starts is a skinny 0.64. Max has faced Oakland once this year and allowed just 2 ER's in 6.1 Innings. He should be able to contain this Oakland offense that comes in hitting just .227 and scoring 3.4 rpg in their last 5 games. The Pens come in struggling, but not sure we'll see much of them as these two starters dominate a couple of struggling offenses.
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Texas/ LA Angels Over 7.5: These two teams have put up a ton of runs vs each other this year and I expect no less in this series. In the last 8 in this series there has been an average of 14.4 rpg scored. 4 of those games were in Texas, but still the last 4 here between these teams averaged 9.8 rpg, with 3 of the 4 posting at least double digits in runs. Jered Weaver has been solid at home, with a 2.40 ERA, but the Rangers average a solid 4.6 rpg on the road and have put up 5.2 rpg in their last 5 games. The Angels come in averaging 4.3 rpg at home and 4.4 rpg in their last 5 games and they have scored 5.9 rpg for Weaver at home on the year, with those games averaging 8.92 rpg.. Ryan Dempster has got his act together for the Rangers but he does have a 3.65 ERA on the road for them, and in 1 start vs the Halos he was blasted for 8 ER's in just 4.1 innings of work. As a member of the Rangers, Ryan's games have averaged 11.1 rpg, while his road starts have put up 10 rpg. Look for both offenses to have good showing toinight as this one hits DD.

Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds -153FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds have won 6 of their last 7 against the Cubs, and they hold the advantage tonight with Bailey on the bump. The Reds are 9-1 in Bailey's last 10 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus the Cubs. The Cubs are 0-5 in Germano's last 5 starts. Bet the Reds on the money line.