Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, September 21,2010

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals @ Pirates
PICK: Pirates +1.5
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he Cardinals come into Pittsburgh after losing their makeup game in Florida against the Marlins last night. Their chances of winning the N.L. Central are pretty much gone as well. The last time the Cardinals came to Pittsburgh, they lost two of three games. Jake Westbrook makes the start for St. Louis. He's 2-3 with a 3.26 in nine starts for the Cardinals. He took one of those losses in Pittsburgh back in August after giving up four runs and six hits in six innings of work. St. Louis has actually lost four of Westbrook’s last five road starts. Pittsburgh enters tonight’s game having won three straight games from Arizona after getting good hitting and timely pitching.
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Paul Maholm has not been good this year. He's 7-15 with a 5.36 ERA this season. He's 5-9 with a 5.91 ERA at home as well. The reason to like Maholm in this game is his history against the Cardinals. He picked up a win back in August against the Cardinals after giving up two runs and seven hits in 6.2 innings of work. As a team, the Cardinals are hitting just .259 against Maholm with Felipe Lopez (7-33), Pedro Feliz (5-21), Yadier Molina (4-21), Brendan Ryan (3-21), Matt Holliday (2-16), Aaron Miles (1-7), Nick Stavinoha (1-5), Skip Schumaker (0-3), Colby Rasmus (0-3), and Jon Jay (0-3) all doing the worst. You've got to wonder about the Cardinals psyche right now since they’ve traveled a lot recently; they've lost 13 of their last 17 road games. The Pirates have the bullpen edge in this one as well so we’ll recommend taking them on the run line in this game tonight.

BIG ALFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
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Florida righthander Adalberto Mendez has a 1-1 record and 1.74 ERA after his first two starts in the Major Leagues, pretty impressive numbers for a 28-year-old rookie who went undrafted as an amateur and was first signed by the Cubs back in 2001. Add to this the fact that in his first two MLB starts, Mendez faced the defending National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies, and that takes it up another notch or two. He will learn pretty quickly that facing teams other than the Phils is a good thing, and he may very well find that out tonight as he goes from throwing to one of the most potent lineups in baseball to one of the most anemic. It also won't hurt his chances that his own lineup will be facing righthander Mike Pelfrey who, despite having a pretty good season at 15-9 with a 3.84 ERA, has struggled quite a bit in his last two road starts - games which the Mets lost by a combined score of 17-4 - and who also has not fared well in his career against the Marlins, going just 1-6 with an ugly 5.79 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against them. The Mets are just 2-8 in Pelfrey's last 10 starts vs. the Fish. Take Florida.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Orioles vs. Red SoxFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two weak offensive teams meet in Fenway. Boston has had a bad second half of the season offensively because of injuries, losing several of their best offensive players. Baltimore comes to town with the second worst offense in the AL. Starter Brad Bergesen has a 1.74 ERA his last three starts, while the Red Sox go with ERA leader Clay Buchholz (2.48 ERA). Can't see many runs in this one, play the Orioles/Red Sox Under the total.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Play Atlanta+ over Philadelphia
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We note, that Doc Halladay has not looked good over his last three outings. In fact, the opposition has been on a home run tear. So, with the strong left side of the lineup coming to the Bank this evening, my mind has centered on the Braves out hitting the Phillies. The Braves have won 5 of the last 6 in the series.

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Philadelphia Phillies -220
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The Braves rookie pitcher Mike Minor is 0-1 with an ERA of 9.00 in his last three starts and he does not have a favorable match up in this game. The Phillies have a powerful lineup and this is a homerun friendly ball park. Minor has not really pitched as well as his 3-1 record would indicate as he was the benefactor of some very nice run support, something that he will most likely not recieve with the Phillies ace pitcher Roy Halliday on the mound. Halliday has completely owned the Braves. In two starts against Atlanta this season Halliday is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.50 allowing just one earned run in eighteen innings of work while striking out fourteen batters. Minors margin of error appears to be very slim and I look for the Phillies to hit him hard today. Philadelphia is 7-1 in Halladay's last eight starts as a home favorite and I expect them to pick up the win again here. Play on Philadelphia.

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Rays vs. Yankees
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This is a preview of an exciting postseason match-up that seems inevitable. These rivals have played Over the Total in (11) of (15) contests with the past (5) in the Big Apple flying Over the Total. It's Fan Appreciation Day at James Patrick Sports and our Tuesday complimentary selection in Major League action is Tampa Bay -New York Over the Total.

CHRIS JORDAN

Now, let's discuss the Rangers, whose magic number is at six. This is a team that has struggled notably on the highway, and the fact is, this is the perfect week to right the ship, and prepare for the postseason, but eliminating the road woes.

The Angels are in jeopardy of finishing the season below .500, and is handing the ball to Ervin Santana. That could be the key for the Rangers to snap out of this offensive funk, as they tagged the right-hander for seven runs - four earned - and 10 hits in six innings back on July 30.

So even though Texas has been bleak on this road trip, I play the due theory here and believe the Rangers have a chance to break this game open.

I like this kid Colby Lewis, who has won back-to-back starts and is 3-1 lifetime in seven games against the Halos.

Take Texas tonight.

1♦ TEXAS

BOBBY MAXWELL

For my comp winner, San Diego is in need of a victory tonight in Los Angeles and they will get it from lefty Clayton Richard (12-8, 3.70 ERA) who has beaten the Dodgers twice this season and who has led his team to four straight wins over Los Angeles.

Richard was pitching very well until an ugly start in Colorado on Wednesday when he gave up eight runs in three innings. But with him returning to normal altitude, he should be OK. He allowed two runs or less in six straight starts before that one, including roadies in Chicago and San Francisco.

As a Padre, Richard has faced the Dodgers three times, allowing a total of five runs in 18.1 innings as the Padres are 3-0, including two wins this season. Richard is 6-3 on the road this season and he’s 9-3 in night games with a 2.64 ERA.

Chad Billingsley (11-10, 3.55 ERA) is on the mound for the Dodgers, but his ERA goes up at home to 4.16. He got knocked around by the Padres the last two times he saw them, allowing seven runs in 11.1 innings, losing 5-0 and 4-0.

The Dodgers have dropped seven of Billingsley’s last nine starts, including each of his last two. They are just 2-7 when he faces winning teams, 1-5 when he goes up against division rivals and as a team they are on skids of 17-35 against winning teams and 2-9 against teams from the N.L. West. San Diego is 4-1 when Richard starts the series opener, 4-0 when he gets five days off and 9-4 when he faces teams from the division.

The Padres have beaten the Dodgers four straight and I’m looking for them to do it again. Play San Diego behind Richard in this one.

2♦ SAN DIEGO

STEPHEN NOVER

Your free play will be the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals.

The game opened in the pick range, but the Astros are 11 games better than the Nationals. Unlike other non-contenders, including Washington, Houston has been playing excellent ball down the stretch.

The Astros have won 20 of their last 28 games. The Nationals have been dragging ever since losing Stephen Strasburg. That's really drained the joy out of them. The Nationals clearly are playing the string out - something they've had a lot of practice at. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games with four straight losses. The four losses have been by a combined 18 runs.

The pitching matchup pits a pair of lefties, J.A. Happ against John Lannan. Both have been pitching well, but my choice is Happ.

Happ finally had a bad outing after seven straight quality starts in which he allowed 11 earned runs in 45 2/3 innings.

Lannan has strung together four consecutive solid outings, but his 4.61 ERA paints an accurate picture. He's strictly a bottom-of-the-rotation type of starter, while Happ has a much higher ceiling. Lannan is 2-4 with a 4.79 ERA when pitching at home.

Unlike the Nationals, the Astros' best hitters are right-handed giving them another advantage in this battle of southpaws. Lannan is going to have to deal with right-handers Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Chris Johnson.

2♦ HOUSTON

BRETT ATKINS

Chicago sends Carlos Zambrano to the mound tonight and this guy has looked incredible lately. Since that ugly stint with his teammates earlier this year, he has come back stronger and more focused than ever.

Zambrano is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.25 ERA and he’s got a 2.38 ERA at home this season. Chicago has won each of his last five starts and he’s limited the opposition to two runs or less in eight straight starts since his ugly episode in the dugout.

Matt Cain is on the hill for San Francisco and he is 4-7 on the road with a 3.67 ERA this season. The Giants are on slides of 2-5 in series openers and 0-4 after getting a day off while the Cubs have won six in a row and six straight series openers.

Chicago is 4-0 when Zambrano faces the Giants at Wrigley Field and San Francisco is just 2-5 in its last seven games in the Windy City. Play Chicago to win this series opener tonight.

2♦ CHICAGO CUBS

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Astros at NationalsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston starter J.A. Happ has allowed 3 or less runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. The Astros are 13-3 UNDER their last 16 road games and they are 20-7-1 UNDER their last 28 games. Houston is 35-17-3 UNDER their last 55 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 4-1 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by Happ. Washington starter John Lannan has allowed 2 or less runs in his last 4 starts. The Nationals are 7-3 UNDER with Lannan if he has 5 days of rest. Washington is 13-5 UNDER in game 2 of a series and they are 23-10-1 UNDER in their last 34 starts made by Lannan when their opponent scores 5 or more runs in their last game.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco GiantsFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants are coming off a pretty average homestand where they went just 3-3 including a series loss against the Brewers over the weekend. Still, they maintained first place in the National League West by a half-game over San Diego and a game and a half over Colorado so every game is big at this point. San Francisco is three games over .500 on the road with six games remaining and the series following this is at San Diego which makes this matchup with the Cubs even more important. Chicago is red hot right now as it has won eight of its last nine games which is its best stretch of the season. There are two problems however. First, all of those games came on the road where the Cubs have a better record than at home. Second, they had a day off yesterday so all of the momentum built up during that roadtrip has been stalled. Going back to the end of July, Chicago is just 7-16 in its last 23 games at Wrigley Field showing the home field edge is no more. San Francisco goes with Matt Cain and he has been a tough luck pitcher at times this season. He has a 3.08 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 30 starts but has just a 12-10 record to show for it. Run support has been the issue but it has gotten much better as San Francisco has averaged 5.7 rpg over his last five starts, all resulting in wins. Going back further, Cain has made 12 starts since the break and the Giants have won 10 of them with Cain going 6-2. He is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in nine career starts against the Cubs. Carlos Zambrano has been just as good as his season has completely turned around since he was suspended. Zambrano has won five consecutive starts and is 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA since rejoining the rotation August 9th. That is a tough streak to go against but the majority of those games have come against non-playoff teams. The Cubs have lost two games since his return and they were against San Diego and San Francisco, the only two teams of the bunch still in the playoff hunt. San Francisco is 10-1 in the second half of the season in road games against National League teams allowing 4.8 or more rpg and 10-1 in its last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record.. Meanwhile the Cubs are 11-22 at home against National League starters with a 3.50 ERA or better and they are 9-17 in Zambrano’s last 26 home starts against teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. 3* San Francisco Giants

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.02 over AtlantaFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies are red-hot both in the win column and at the plate. In fact, they have five hitters in the National League’s top 16 in OPS this month: Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz. They’ve also reeled off eight in a row and an incredible 42 out of its last 57 games. It’s no coincidence that Hamels, Halliday and Oswalt were lined up for this series. Roy Halliday needs no introductions. The man can flat out bring it and now that he can smell the post-season, you can expect him to double his already high competitive intensity. There was a lot to like in Mike Minor's first four MLB starts. His control was good and he even struck out 12 Cubbies in one of those starts. That must seem like an eternity ago to Minor because things have taken a dramatic turnaround for the worse. In three September starts the league is hitting a robust .351 off him. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last 14 IP and his confidence has to be fragile right now. A close look reveals a low ground-ball percentage in all of his starts combined of 34% and a fly-ball % of 54%. That’s asking for big trouble in this park against this team and chances are good he’ll run into it. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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NY Mets/FLORIDA over 8FOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Mile Pelfrey is coming off back-to-back strong starts but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Both starts came at Citi Field and that joint can make anyone look good. Pay more attention to the fact that Pelfrey has walked 7 and struck out 10 over his last three starts. Prior to those two good starts he was whacked in two road starts to the tune of 14 hits and 10 ER in 8.2 frames. Pelfrey’s ERA isn't half bad, but when you take a look at the xERA of 5.03 over the last month, it’s pretty clear that we should stick a fork in Pelfrey for the year ... he's done. Also note that on the road this season he’s 5-6 with an ERA of 5.30 and a BAA of .331. Last time he faced these Marlins, they rocked him for 12 hits in 4.2 inning (.522 BAA) and current Marlins batters are hitting .342 off him in 79 career AB’s. Pelfrey has truly benefitted from pitching at home but get this guy on the road and he’s about as intimidating as a 145-lb bouncer. The Cubs originally signed Adalberto Mendez as a non-drafted FA out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. He has toiled for eight minor league campaigns mostly in relief but this year at the minor league level they attempted to turn him into a starter. He made nine starts at New Orleans and went 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 40.1 IP. He's hasn't gone beyond six innings in any start, and at 6-2, 160, there are some issues regarding his stamina, not to mention potential control issues too. When Mendez starts missing the plate he seldom finds it again. He’s walked seven batters in his two major league starts covering 10.1 frames. His stuff is ok but there is way more risk than upside and combined, these two pitchers could and likely will implode big time. This is a low and very beatable number. Play: NY Mets/Florida over 8 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Rocketman

NY Mets @ Florida
Play: Florida

Two very evenly matched teams here with NY Mets coming in with a 74-76 overall record this year and Florida coming in with a 74-75 overall record on the season. These teams will want to finish above .500 to have something to feel good about since they won't be making the playoffs. Florida is 10-4 this year after shutting out their opponent. Florida is 29-19 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Florida is 17-9 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in 2nd half of the season. NY Mets have lost 3 games in a row. Mike Pelfrey is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA on the road this year. Adalberto Mendez has a 1.74 ERA in all starts this year. Florida is 6-1 at home vs NY Mets this year. Pelfrey is 1-6 with a 5.78 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!