Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Oakland A's -145
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Oakland shut out the White Sox last night to hand them their 7th straight defeat, and I don't see this losing streak coming to an end tonight. Cahill gets the ball for Oakland, and he has been money in the bank at home all season. In fact, he is 10-2 at home with an ERA of 1.58 and a WHIP of 0.996. The White Sox haven't had much luck in Oakland, where they are just 15-38 in their last 53 meetings, and the luck doesn't figure to change with Buerhle on the bump. There's no denying that the southpaw is a quality starter, but he hasn't been able to figure out the A's. As a result, the White Sox are 5-16 in his 21 career starts vs. the Athletics, including 2-9 in his 11 lifetime road starts. Take the A's at home tonight.
Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
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The Nationals are currently struggling. They lost 8-2 in yesterday's series opener, their fourth straight defeat. Tonight's starter is in excellent current form though. That should give them a solid shot at snapping their skid.
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Lannan checks in with a stellar 2.30 ERA his last four starts. Looking back further and we find that he's 6-2 with a 3.02 ERA in his last eight starts. Not too bad, considering Washington's overall record during that span. In his last start, Lannan limited the Braves to two runs through six complete innings, earning a 4-2 victory. Coincidentally, that was the Nats' last win.
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Like Lannan, Happ had been pitching well of late. However, unlike Lannan, he struggled in his last start. He managed to escape with a "no decision," but was rocked for five runs in 4 2/3 innings. The Astros lost 8-6.
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Even with their recent struggles, the Nats have still been better at home (35-37) than the Astros have been on the road (31-40). Given Lannan's recent success, backing the home team at a "pickem" price is worthy of consideration.
JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers -109
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Let's roll late tonight as we will back a 83-65 Rangers crew here boys behind Colby Lewis who checks in @ 11-12 over all and a 3.84 ERA. This is a gut play here from us as the late season weak lines are in. The Power Ratings check in @ Texas - 135 which give the Oster Value Tonight. The Texas Hurler has been light's out going 3-1 with a 5.36 ERA vs the Angels. The sharp play here is the Rangers to get after them tonight late
LT ProfitsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Play: Texas Rangers
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The Los Angeles Angels took the series opener from the Texas Rangers here in Anaheim last night, but with Texas still owning an eight-game lead in the American League West look for the Rangers to come one game closer to clinching the division tonight.
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The bookmakers have rated this game a toss-up, with the betting odds set at -110 for each side.
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Colby Lewis is a very unlucky 11-12 for the Rangers this season, considering that he has a good 3.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. While the Rangers have supported mist of the pitching staff well, they have averaged just 3.90 runs per mine innings with Lewis on the hill! That is obviously a fluky variance, and Lewis has continued to pitch well, entering this outing off of back-to-back Quality Starts.
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Lewis has not faced the Angels since 2004, meaning that most of the current Halos roster has never seen him before, which is usually to the pitcher’s advantage. He is also facing an LA team that has packed it in for the season, and that is reflected in the fact that the Angeles are hitting just .227 over the last 10 games including a putrid .211 vs. right-handed pitchers,
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Now granted Ervin Santana is 16-9 and in good form with four straight Quality Starts, but consider that those starts came vs. Cleveland, Oakland and Seattle twice, which is hardly Murderers’ Row. Texas got to Santana the last time he faced them, reaching him for seven runs and 10 hits in six innings on July 30.
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With mush more at stake, look for the Rangers to even up this series tonight at a Pick’em price.
John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Texas Rangers
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5* graded play on Texas as they take on Anaheim set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Three starts ago, Colby Lewis was hammered for nine ER on eight hits spanning just 3 2/3 innings of work. Since then he has yielded three earned runs in the last two starts spanning 12 1/3 innings. In nine starts against divisional opponents he has posted a 2.82 ERA and a 1.137 WHIP. Anaheim starter Santana has pitched well, but he does not pitch well against Texas. In his career spanning 18 starts he has posted a 5.79 ERA and q 1.647 WHIP. He has pitched more than six innings just once in the last five starts against Texas. The Rangers bullpen has been stout all season long and has posted even more impressive numbers over the past seven games with a 2.20 ERA and a 0.919 WHIP. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 52-21 making 25.1 units since 1997. Play against home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a poor AL offensive team scoring <=4.5 runs per game facing a team with a very good bullpen posting a ERA<=3.33 and that averages less than 2.75 innings per game. Take Texas.
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3* on Seattle Mariners +138
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Reasons the Mariners win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL). This is a 37-15 ML System hitting 71.2% since 1997 while gaining +34.2 units. Betting $100/play, you would have won $3,420. Bet the Mariners on the road showing excellent value.
Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Diego Padres
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Clayton Richard coming off his worst game of the season at Colorado will bounce back in this spot he should be fresh after throwing just 80 pitches. Richard who is 9-3 during his night starts with a 2.64 ERA this season. In 4 game starts in his carer h has a 3.57 ERA vs. the Dodgers which is nothing special, but note the Dodgers without Manny Ramirez are a different offense vs. LHP. Scoring just 3.56 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP in their last 10 just 2.68. Padres on the other hand have been better against Billingsley who has pitched well, but at home he has an ERA over 4 which just won't get it done with a slumping Dodgers offense. Note LA just 2-9 in their last 11 vs. the NL West. I like these odds with the Padres needing this game more.
Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -137
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1.5 games back in the NL West race, the Rockies know they can't afford a letdown against the last place D-backs. I expect the Rockies to show up ready to play against a team they have defeated 4 straight times. It is certainly to their advantage that De La Rosa is on the hill. The Rockies are an impressive 23-4 in his last 27 starts as a favorite, including 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a road favorite. They are also a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Diamondbacks. The Snakes have dropped 12 of their last 15, and Saunders doesn't offer much hope, considering the Diamondbacks are only 1-7 in his last 8 starts. Take the Rockies tonight
Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Seattle Mariners
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Getting the Mariners at this price is quite the steal tonight as they take on the struggling Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto's loss to the Red Sox on Sunday officially eliminated the Blue Jays from the playoffs, and I would not be surprised to see this team pack it in now. What I really like about this game is that I'll be backing the better starter in this match-up, though this line would not indicate it. Luke French is 4-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in 10 starts this season for Seattle. Meanwhile, Marc Rzepczinski is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in 9 starts this year for Toronto.
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This play also falls under a system that has gone 37-15 (71.2%) since 1997 and is a perfect 4-0 this season. It tells us to bet on road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL). Rzepcynski has not won since August 13, and he is 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA since that win. Roll with Seattle Tuesday.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Seattle Mariners managed to take home series over division leading Texas over the weekend, despite scoring just five total runs. In fact, the M’s have scored more than two runs once in last seven games. If you wager on baseball at this point of the season, you have to know Seattle has been one the worst hitting teams all year and are dead last in power production with only 92 home runs.
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This leads to today’s MLB action which suggests to Play Against road teams who lack power, averaging 0.9 or less long balls a game on the season, after scoring two runs or less four straight contests. This system is remarkably consistent at 72-24 (75 percent) the last 13 years and 15-5 the past three years.
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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Texas will eventually clinch the AL West title and enter the postseason for the first time since 1999. However, the Rangers haven't made it easy on themselves lately, as they enter tonight's game with the Angels losers of EIGHT of their last 11 road games. The Angels entered this season having won three straight AL West titles (five of last six) but at 74-76, need a strong finish to just get above .500 this season. LA beat Texas 7-4 last night and I'll back them again here as Colby Lewis takes on Ervin Santana. Lewis had made just four major league starts since 2003 (spent '08 and '09 seasons in Japan) at the beginning of the 2010 season but will be making his 30th start of 2010 tonight. He's 11-12 with a 3.84 ERA and while the team is 13-16 in all of his 29 starts, his moneyline mark is brutal (minus-$885). Only FOUR of some 280 pitchers this season are worse! Lewis finally ended a nine-start winless streak (was 0-7 and the team 1-8) by winning his last two outings (2.19 ERA) but I want no part of him in this one. LA's Ervin Santana (16-9, 3.93 ERA) is looking to set a career-high in wins (also won 16 in 2006 and 2008) and comes in 3-0 (2.79 ERA) over his last four starts (team is 3-1). The Angels and Santana provide the much better value in this game.
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Rays @ YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Over 9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We cashed betting the Yankees and Rays Over the total last night, and there’s absolutely no reason to change our course tonight. The Rays are 10-1-1 to the Over in their last dozen road games, scoring a whopping 84 runs in those dozen contests; an average of seven runs per game. Tampa’s offense is clicking right now, especially in hitter friendly parks. And all six previous meetings between these two teams at Yankee Stadium this year have flown Over the total; with five of the six games producing at least 14 combined runs. When we consider the fact that these teams are #1 and #3 in runs scored in all of baseball this year, these consistently high scoring results – even in the midst of a pennant race – cannot be considered a surprise.
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Yankees starter Phil Hughes has been hit hard by the Rays in both previous starts against them this season, with a 4.97 ERA in those outings. Hughes has struggled down the stretch, with a 6.59 ERA here in September, the third time in the last four months that his ERA has been above 5.00, in sharp contrast to hit hot start in April and May. It’s also worth noting that Yankees closer Mariano Rivera has been vulnerable of late. Rivera has allowed runs in each of the Yankees last two games, and he’s off a 25 pitch effort last night. The potential exists for late game shenanigans should we need them.
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Tampa’s bullpen is not in great shape either, needing 60 pitches from their pen in last night’s loss. They played in extra innings on Saturday and needed more than 70 pitches from the pen on Sunday – this is not a fresh ‘pen, by any stretch of the imagination. Starter James Shields has more than 41 career innings pitched here in the Bronx, with a 5.67 ERA against the Yankees in those starts. Facing a hot Yankees lineup (37 runs scored in their last six games), we should expect fireworks once again this evening. 2* Take the Over.
Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rays at NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A big showdown game in the Bronx. The Yankees have all their big bats back in the lineup and it showed last night with 17 base runners and 8 runs in a big win. Tampa Bay is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games. Tampa used 3 relievers last night and now goes with struggling James Shields, with a 6.32 ERA his last three starts. He's 3-7 all time against the Bronx Bombers, too, making this an excellent spot for the home team again. Play the NY Yankees.
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San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
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We don't expect any Monday Night Football hangover from San Francisco as they open a three-game set against the NL's biggest money burners, the Chicago Cubs. The Northsiders are in the midst of a season-long six-game win streak, but are also 0-6 this season after allowing four runs or less in each of their last four games. Giants starter Cain owns a 12-2 team start record if he allowed two runs or less in back to back outings. San Fran took three of four from the Cubs last month.
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Play on: San Francisco
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Cleveland Indians at Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Scott Baker takes the ball for Minnesota with his 12-9 mark along with a 4.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this year. Baker is typically an excellent proposition at home given his 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .271 opponent's batting average as compared to his 5.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and ..286 opponent's batting average this season. The Twins have won 19 of their last 26 home games with Baker on the mound. He should do well against an Indians team that he has a career 3.85 ERA against in his 107 2/3 innings of career work. Minnesota has also won 21 of their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland counters with Fausto Carmona who is 12-14 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this year. But Carmona tends to struggle against the Twins given his 4.93 ERA in 86 innings of career work against them. The Indians have lost six of their last seven games against teams with a winning record.