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Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday September 22,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Philadelphia (87-61) at Florida (80-70)

With time running out on their wild-card chances, the Marlins open a key three-game, two-day series against the division-leading Phillies with a double-header at Land Shark Stadium. Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton (10-7, 3.97 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Marlins ace Josh Johnson (15-4, 3.01) in the opener, with Jamie Moyer (12-9, 5.05) slated to start the nightcap for Philadelphia against Anibal Sanchez (2-7, 4.50).

The Phillies, who lead the N.L. East by five games over both the Braves and Marlins, roll into South Beach having won 10 of their last 13 games, including seven of the last eight, all against division rivals, going 4-2 on the road during this stretch. The defending champs have been getting tremendous pitching, allowing two runs or fewer in five of their last seven contests. Philadelphia enters this series on runs of 23-9 in divisional play, 5-1 after a victory, 4-0 in series openers, 21-6 in opening game of a double header, 11-4 versus winning teams, 42-20 on Tuesday and 27-11 after an off day.

Florida, which like the Phillies was idle on Monday, comes off a seven-game road trip in which it went 4-3, ending with Sunday’s 8-1 blowout loss at Cincinnati. The Marlins, who trail Colorado by five games in the wild-card race, have played just three of their last 16 games in South Beach, and they lost two of those three to the lowly Nationals. Florida has lost six of its last 10 at home, but is otherwise on positive runs of 8-3 against N.L. East rivals, 5-1 after a loss, 5-1 on Tuesday and 4-0 following a day off.

The road team has dominated this rivalry in 2009, winning 11 of the first 12 meetings. Also, going back to the final series of 2008, Philadelphia is on an 8-0 run playing in Florida.

Blanton scattered six hits and four walks in six scoreless innings in Wednesday’s 6-1 victory over the Nationals. He’s now pitched at least six innings while allowing three runs or fewer in 12 of his last 13 starts and 17 of his last 20 outings dating to May 26. Behind Blanton, Philly is on upticks of 14-6 against the N.L. East, 9-4 in series openers and 13-6 against winning teams, but the squad is just 8-10 in his last 18 efforts overall and 1-7 in his last eight road starts. For the season, Blanton is 3-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 starts as a visitor.

Johnson is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s now yielded four runs or fewer in 29 of 30 starts this season, allowing three runs or less 27 times. The Marlins are 38-18 in the right-hander’s last 56 trips to the mound, including 17-5 in his last 22 at home and 27-9 in his last 36 against N.L. East foes. This year, Johnson is 7-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 15 starts at Land Shark Stadium.

Moyer was banished to the bullpen in favor of Pedro Martinez in early August, but he has made two starts this month, allowing a combined seven runs on 10 hits in 13 innings (4.85 ERA), with the Phillies losing 4-3 at Houston on Sept. 7 and 10-9 to the Mets at home 10 days ago. Philadelphia has come up empty in Moyer’s last four starts in a row, though they’re 5-1 in his last six on the highway and 36-15 in his last 51 starts against the N.L. East. He’s 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA on the road this season.

Sanchez has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, but he’s pitched past the fifth inning just twice during this stretch, never going longer than six innings. On Thursday in Cincinnati, he lasted five innings, surrendering three runs in a 3-2 loss. The Marlins have taken 13 of Sanchez’s last 19 home starts – where he’s 0-3 with a 4.00 ERA in six games this season – but they’re 1-4 in his last five trips to the hill overall and 1-4 in his last five Tuesday outings.

Blanton is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against Florida (1-1, 1.98 ERA in two games this year), while Moyer is an astounding 13-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 16 career starts against the Marlins (2-2, 2.63 ERA in four games this year), including 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA in eight starts in Florida.

Johnson is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA all-time against the Phillies (nine appearances, including seven starts), going 1-0 with a microscopic 0.69 ERA in two games this year (one run allowed in 13 innings). Meanwhile, Sanchez is 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA in five lifetime starts versus Philadelphia, with the Marlins losing all five.

For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall, 10-2 in series openers, 4-0 after a day off, 5-1 on Tuesday,10-3 against winning teams, 6-1-1 when Blanton pitches against divisional opponents and 4-0 when Moyer starts on the road. However, as a team, the over is 4-1 in the Phillies’ last five as a visitor.

Florida carries team “under” trends of 5-0-1 overall, 5-0 on Tuesday, 10-3-1 overall behind Sanchez and 7-2-1 when Sanchez faces divisional rivals, but otherwise the over for the Marlins is on streaks of 19-7 at home, 4-1 in the first game of a doubleheader, 20-8-1 when Johnson faces the N.L. East, 5-1-2 when he starts on Tuesday and 13-4-2 when he opens a series.

Finally, the over is 54-25-3 in the last 82 Phillies-Marlins meetings in Miami and 4-0 in Johnson’s last four starts against Philadelphia, but the under is 4-1 in Moyer’s last five games in Florida.

ATS ADVANTAGE GAME 1): FLORIDA and OVER

ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): PHILADELPHIA and UNDER

N.Y. Yankees (95-56) at L.A. Angels (90-60)

American League division leaders that are destined for the playoffs continue a three-game series at Angel Stadium, with Ervin Santana (7-8, 5.43 ERA) slated to toe the slab for the hosts opposite the Yankees’ Chad Gaudin (5-10, 4.81 ERA overall; 1-0, 3.68 with New York).

The Yankees dropped to 1-3 on their current West Coast road swing with last night’s 5-2 loss in Anaheim. Still, they’re on impressive streaks of 57-24 overall, 16-8 on the road, 38-18 in the second game of a series, 8-3 on Tuesday and 36-15 when facing right-handed starters. Also, New York has come up victorious in each of Gaudin’s four starts with the club.

The Angels have won four of their last five and are 7-1 in their last eight at home. However, despite Monday’s win, they’ve lost four of their last six to A.L. East foes.

Los Angeles holds a slim 5-3 lead in the season series with New York, and the home team is 7-1 this year and 14-2 in the last 16 meetings.

Gaudin has surrendered 0, 3, 1 and 3 runs in his first four starts since coming over in a trade from San Diego, and while the Yankees won all four games – including Wednesday’s 5-4 home win over Toronto – three were one-run victories. Also, Gaudin hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in any of his last six starts going back to his time with the Padres. Combined, the right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 road appearances (13 starts) this year (0-0, 4.82 ERA in two on the road with the Yankees).

Santana has delivered a quality start seven times in his last eight trips to the mound, including on Thursday in Boston, when the right-hander allowed three runs in seven innings. He failed to get a decision, though the Angels eventually scored a 4-3 win, ending a four-game losing skid with Santana pitching. Los Angeles is just 1-5 in Santana’s last six at home – where he’s 1-5 with a 7.24 ERA in nine games this season – but they’re unbeaten in his last four starts against the A.L. East (including Thursday’s win in Boston).

With the Padres, Gaudin faced the Angels in Anaheim during interleague play on July 12 and got destroyed, allowing eight runs on 10 hits in three innings of an 11-6 loss. He’s 3-3 with a 5.33 ERA in 18 career appearances (eight starts) versus L.A. Meanwhile, Santana is 5-2 with a 5.09 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Bronx Bombers.

The over is 9-5 in New York’s last 14 road games and 5-1-1 in its last seven on Tuesday, but the under is 5-1 in the Yanks’ last five against the A.L. West. Meanwhile, L.A. carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 6-0-1 on Tuesday, 16-5-1 versus right-handed starters, 5-0 with Santana on the mound, 4-1-1 when Santana starts at home and 4-1 when he hurls on Tuesday.

Finally, the over is 21-9 in the last 30 Yankees-Angels battles overall, with 13 of the last 17 in Anaheim topping the posted total. Also, going back to his days with Oakland, Gaudin has topped the total in five of his last six starts against New York.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 7:33 am
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DUNKEL

NY Yankees at LA Angels
The Yankees look to take advantage of an LA team that is just 1-5 in Ervin Santana's last 6 starts at home. New York is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+120)

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.600; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.783
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Over

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 16.576; Washington (Hernandez) 13.203
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Over

Game 905-906: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.962; NY Mets (Figueroa) 13.681
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-185); Over

Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.847; Florida (Sanchez) 14.902
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 16.812; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.600
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); Under

Game 911-912: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 13.983; Houston (Bazardo) 14.306
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+155); Under

Game 913-914: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Mujica) 16.002; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.029
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+210); Over

Game 915-916: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.244; Arizona (Davis) 15.063
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1;
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Seattle at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.508; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.046
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hendrickson) 14.701; Toronto (Tallet) 13.827
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+125); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 13.888; Cleveland (Laffey) 14.772
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+135); Over

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Manship) 15.009; White Sox (Danks) 15.891
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-165); Over

Game 925-926: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Byrd) 17.602; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.409
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Under

Game 927-928: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Gaudin) 16.272; LA Angels (Santana) 15.237
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+120); Over

Game 929-930: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (McCarthy) 15.850; Oakland (Cahill) 15.234
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Under

Game 931-932: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.200; Florida (Johnson) 15.548
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-145); Under

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 7:35 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Detroit -130 at CLEVELAND

Delivered a FREE winner for you from the diamond on Monday night as the Angels came through and beat the Yankees in southern California. Tonight I've got another for you as I go with the Tigers on the road in Cleveland.

The Indians have basically packed their bags and are just going through the motions until the end of the season so have no fears laying the chalk with the Tigers in Cleveland tonight.

Cleveland has dropped 13 of 16 as an underdog, and the Tribe is currently on a eight-game losing streak, with the offense unable to produce more than four runs in any of the seven losses.

The Tigers salvaged Sunday's game in Minnesota to maintain a 2.5-game lead over the Twins in the A.L. Central race. While Detroit hasn't been very good on the road this season, they have won four of five in Cleveland this season and taken 11 of 15 against the Indians this year.

Edwin Jackson (12-7, 3.37 ERA) is on the hill for Detroit looking to rebound from two bad starts at home against the Blue Jays and the Royals. He's faced the Tribe four times this season and the Tigers are 3-1. His first start in Cleveland this season was back on May 9 when he blanked them for seven innings on five hits of a 4-0 victory.

Aaron Laffey (7-6, 4.26 ERA) is on the hill for the Indians and this guy has been a disaster lately, going 0-3 in his last three outings with an 8.04 ERA. In his last two starts he's allowed a combined 14 runs on 24 hits in 9.1 innings, losing to the Rangers and Twins - both teams fighting to get into the playoffs. He's made three career starts against the Tigers and lost all three, including two this year where he's allowed a combined nine runs in 9.2 innings.

This play is an easy call on the Tigers. Love this one to end up in a blowout. Play Detroit.

2♦ DETROIT

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 7:46 am
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Dominic Fazzini

N.Y. Yankees at L.A. ANGELS -125

The Astros laid a big egg Monday night, but I'm still 3-1 on my last four complimentary selections. But I'm going to be back on my game tonight with a big win with the Angels.

Los Angeles seems to be over the little rough patch it had recently and has now won four of its last five after Joe Saunders shut down the Yankees on Monday night.

Ervin Santana (7-8, 4.76 ERA) gets the call tonight for the Angels, and the right-hander is 5-2 with a 5.09 ERA in seven career starts vs. New York.

Santana allowed three runs and four hits in seven innings Thursday at Boston, but received a no-decision. He has delivered seven quality starts in his last eight outings, but is just 3-2 in that stretch.

Yankees starter Chad Gaudin (5-10, 4.81 with San Diego and New York) is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA in eight games (four starts) with the Bronx Bombers. The right-hander gave up three runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings Wednesday against Toronto.

Gaudin was hammered by the Angels on June 12 while with the Padres, allowing eight runs and 10 hits in three innings. He is 2-3 with a 5.89 ERA in eight career starts against the AL West leaders.

Los Angeles is trying to win its eighth straight home series against the Yankees, and I don't think they're going to have to wait until Wednesday's finale to reach that goal. Take the Angels to get the victory tonight.

3♦ L.A. ANGELS

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 7:46 am
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Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers open a three-game series with the Tribe in Cleveland tonight when they send Edwin Jackson to the mound against Aaron Laffey. Jackson enters tonight's game with four wins in his last five team starts against the indians while Laffey is 0-3 lifetime in his team starts against Detroit. With Laffey 0-3 with an 8.81 ERA in his last three starts, look for the men from Motown to come up big here tonight.

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 7:48 am
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JIM FEIST

NEW YORK YANKEES / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
TAKE: NEW YORK YANKEES

The Yankees are counting the numbers down to a clinch party. The bullpen is very good and starter Chad Gaudin has been getting better, not walking anyone with a respectable 4.11 ERA his last three. It helps to have a strong pen plus the best offense in baseball hitting for you. LA goes with Ervin Santana (7-8), who is still trying to find a groove after missing time in the first half. He's favored here, but the Angels are 1-4 his last 5 starts. Play the NY Yankees.

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 7:49 am
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Hentai Sports

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction : Detroit Tigers

The Tigers open a three-game series with the Tribe in Cleveland tonight when they send Edwin Jackson to the mound against Aaron Laffey. Jackson enters tonight’s game with four wins in his last five team starts against the indians while Laffey is 0-3 lifetime in his team starts against Detroit. With Laffey 0-3 with an 8.81 ERA in his last three starts, look for the men from Motown to come up big here tonight.

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 8:24 am
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BIG AL

St Louis at Houston

At this point, with a double-digit lead in games in the NL Central, the Cardinals are now effectively playing for the best record and home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. But what they should be most concerned with right now is scoring runs. All of a sudden, the pop seems to have gone out of the Cardinal bats. In the Cards' last 10 games, they have scored a total of just 35 runs, and they have only scored more than three runs on three occasions during that time. They will turn to righthander Joel Pineiro tonight and Pineiro has fallen victim lately to that very same lack of run support. After winning all of Pineiro's 10 starts in the months of July and August, the Cardinals are off to a 1-3 record in Pineiro's first four starts of September, and they have only scored a total of two runs in his last two starts against Atlanta and Florida. Heading into Tuesday's game, the under is 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings.

PLAY UNDER

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 8:25 am
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EZWINNERS

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
Play: Detroit Tigers -$128

Detroit's starting pitcher Edwin Jackson has a 6.12 ERA in the month of September but this is a great matchup for him to get back on track. Jackson is 4-1 lifetime against the Indians including a perfect 3-0 this season in four starts with an ERA of just 2.74. Cleveland's starting pitcher Aaron Laffey has not been pitching well. Laffey is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.04 in his last three starts. Laffey is not a pitcher that strikes out many batters. Laffey issues a high amount of walks and pitches to contact which is a combustible combination. The Tigers have won four out of the last five meetings between these two teams and I expect that to continue. Play on Detroit.

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 8:33 am
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Stephen Nover

San Diego +190 at COLORADO

With no pressure on them, the Padres continue to play well. San Diego has won 17 of its last 25 games since Aug. 25. They have won 11 of their last 16 road matchups.

That makes them a worthy opponent at this price.

Converted reliever Edward Mujica gets the start. He has a respectable 3.26 ERA and excellent control with a 68-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's walked only one batter during his past 18 appearances.

San Diego's young hitters, particularly Chase Headley, are much better at Coors Field than they are at spacious Petco Park.

Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa has a 4.76 home ERA.

2♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 8:52 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS

Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

Something has got to give here. The Marlins have yet to win in six home games vs. the Phillies this season, but send out ace Josh Johnson, who owns a 19-4 team start record in NL East play the past two seasons. We give the edge to Johnson and Florida as the pitcher has also seen his team win 10 of 11 daytime starts. In 13 innings of work vs. Philadelphia this season, Johnson has allowed just one run and seven hits. Philly is just 11-17 playing with double revenge.

Play on: Florida

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 9:29 am
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Tom Freese

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee starter Dave Bush has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee is 5-0 their last 5 games vs. righty starters. The Brewers are 5-1 their last 6 games overall and they are 19-5 in the last 24 home starts made by Bush vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 15-36 their last 51 games as road underdogs and they are 1-4 vs. an opponent that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. The Cubs are 1-5 in the last 6 starts made by Randy Wells and they are 5-25 as underdogs of +100 to +150. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE -

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 9:29 am
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Freddy Wills

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Take Royals -1.5 +140

I'm going with the Royals here behind Zach Greinke. Why not the money line? I don't see value for a 1-unit play on the money line of -155. Plus the way the Royals have been hitting gives me confidence behind Greinke. First thing you want to know is the public is all over the Red Sox at 65% because they are the Red Sox and the Royals are the Royals. However, Red Sox have not faced Greinke since 2007 which gives me reason to believe he will be his dominant self. I really like him to go out there and throw another great game as he is pushing for the Cy Young. Put yourself in his position he may never have another opportunity to win the Cy Young. He wants it and his teammates want to help him get it. Greinke has a 1-0 record with a .45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has a 1.80 ERA at night and at home he's 8-3 with a 1.82 ERA. At home he has 126 K's in 108.2 IP. Boston will struggle here tonight trying to make contact with Grenkes' pitches. Boston has been hitting well .302 6.31 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 vs. RHP. However, let the record state that he faced a trio of terrible RHP from the Orioles and then Lenny Dinardo from the Royals last night. The Red Sox are not a dominant road team especially vs. RHP. On the season they are 37-38 and they are scoring just 4.29 runs per 9 vs. RHP. That is 1.38 runs per 9 innings less than their averages vs. LHP and they are hitting 32 points lower in average as well. Along with all that when they lose on the road which has been 38 times and have lost 78.9% of those games by more than 1 run. That is what gives us the advantage here and the value is tremendous at +140! Why do I think the Royals will hit? Paul Byrd has not been good as much as he has been lucky. He only gave up 3 ER to the Angels after allowing 9 hits in 5.1 IP. On the season he's given up 28 hits in 18.2 IP. This is the type of pitcher he has always been giving up many more hits than innings, but not walking many. This fits perfectly to the type of team the Royals are. They are not patient they are aggressive. They are 28th in BB's and 18th in K's which also means that they make contact with the ball. Last time Byrd faced a team like that which was also on the road was the White Sox. White Sox #18 in BB, and #23 in K's they torched him for 10 hits in 2.1 IP and 7 ER. I look for a similar output here tonight. The Red Sox will turn it over to a bullpen that has a 7.33 ERA in their last 3 and a 6.59 in their last 5.

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 9:32 am
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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Boston Red Sox +147

The Royals have been playing some pretty good baseball this month and they put ace Zach Greinke on the hill tonight, but they are being grossly overvalued in my opinion. Boston has won 9 of the last 12 meetings in this matchup and it will be looking to avenge yesterday's loss. While Greinke has been dominant at home this season, he rarely gets adequate run support and the Royals are just 8-7 in his home starts because of it. Plus, Greinke is 0-2 lifetime against the Red Sox. Paul Byrd has struggled in his few starts for Boston this season, but he has slowly improved over his last 2, which were both Boston wins. In fact, the Red Sox are 5-0 in Byrd's last 5 starts as an underdog and 5-1 in his last 6 starts period. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss and a strong 21-6 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Royals are just 2-6 in Greinke's last 8 home starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the American League East, and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. I'll back the Red Sox showing solid underdog value for 1 unit here.

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 9:32 am
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Vernon Croy

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Baltimore Orioles

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems so we are getting very good value here with the Orioles Tuesday night. The Blue Jays are just 3-14 in their last 17 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game and the Jays are also just 7-20 in their last 27 game after a win. The Jays are just 2-7 in Brian Tallet's (7-9, 5.31 ERA) last 9 starts and he has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.75 while lasting an average of just 4.4 innings per start. Take the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday night.

 
Posted : September 22, 2009 10:31 am
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