LT Profits
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals is a Cy Young Award candidate despite owning just a 14-8 record, and that lack of run support keeping his win total down makes the Under worth a look tonight against the Boston Red Sox.
Greinke would be a runaway Cy Young Winner if he pitched for a better team, so he knows that he needs to maintain his raging form to avoid losing out to a lesser candidate that has more wins. After all, he has a spectacular 2.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 30 starts, with 224 strikeouts in 210.1 innings. Those numbers are not much different from reining National League Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum last year, expect Greinke has posted them in a better hitting league!
Now the Royals did put up 12 runs in their 12-9 slugfest win here last night, but that may actually work against them here as this is really not a good hitting team, and putting together back-to-back outbursts like that may be asking a bit much. Kansas City ranks second to last in the American League in team batting average at .258, ahead of only the Seattle Mariners.
Granted the ageless Paul Byrd is taking this start for the Red Sox, but he has pitched well in three of his four starts since entering the Boston rotation, allowing three runs or less. If he could limit the potent Los Angeles Angels lineup to three runs like he did in his last start, we see no reason why Byrd cannot post a Quality Start tonight. The Red Sox bullpen had a tough time last night, but that unit still has a nice 3.71 ERA over the entire season.
The Royals have the obvious pitching edge here, but Byrd and the pen can hold their own vs. this Kansas City lineup, making the Under the play here.
Pick: Red Sox/Royals Under 8.5
Mr. Vegas Wins
Mariners at Rays
Time to back the Rays! The Rays won their fourth straight after a stretch in which they lost 13 of 14 games. This team has talent and it was no fluke they were in the World Series last year. They just went through a terrible stretch, but they are not a terrible team. Seattle is a long way from home and faces Jeff Niemann (12-6), who has been sharp the last 3 starts, with only 4 walks and 20 strikeouts. Play the Rays!
Allen Eastman
Take Under 8.5 Boston at Kansas City
Zach Grienke takes the hill tonight and you know he's going to want to have a strong showing against the highly regarded Red Sox lineup. KC has been playing great ball lately and Grienke is a big part of the reason. Over his last four starts his ERA is 0.31 and he is 1-5-1 against the total in his last seven starts. After last night's scoring spree I expect to see more of a low-scoring game.
John Ryan
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado on the run line as they face San Diego set to start at 8:40 EST. Rockies starter is De La Rosa is a perfect 6-0 against the run line (+6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of record of 10-1 making 8 units over the past 3 seasons and 47-6 making 35 units since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a rested bullpen that threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games facing an opponent after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. Rockies are coming home after 4-5 road trip, but finished winners of 3 of the last 4. They have a 4 game lead over the Giants with 12 games remaining and 9 of them are at home where they are 45-27 on the season. No let up here. Take the Rockies.
Rocketman
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play:Detroit Tigers
Detroit is now 79-70 overall this year while Cleveland comes in with a 61-88 overall record on the season. Detroit sits only 2 1/2 games ahead of Minnesota now in the AL Central division so they are getting into must win situations. Cleveland is only 3-16 in the month of September this year and have lost 8 in a row. The Tigers send Edwin Jackson to the mound tonight and he has a 12-7 overall record with a 3.37 ERA this year. Jackson has a nice 3.03 ERA on the road this season. Aaron Laffey is 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA his last 3 starts. Detroit has won 11 of 15 meetings this year against Cleveland. Jackson is 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight!
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Under 9.5
It’s officially the first day of fall today on Tuesday but people in Denver didn’t have to look at a map to figure that out. They could feel it when they walked outside! Temperatures are very chilly in Denver today with highs only expected to be in the upper 40’s. The nearby mountains are even receiving some snowfall and it’s not a good day to be at the Coors Field Ballpark. Of course, once the sun goes down, the temperatures will drop even faster and that makes this quite an adjustment for these teams. The Rockies just finished up a series in Arizona and the Padres just finished up a series in Pittsburgh where the temps were quite mild. As we get into late September the weather can, and likely will, be more of a factor and that is certainly the case in Colorado this evening.
Adding more support to our position here is that neither lineup should be expected to produce much and a solid start should be expected from both starting pitchers. The Rockies have averaged just 4 runs per game in their last 13 games. As for San Diego, they are coming off an extra-inning win at Pittsburgh last night that “padded” stats. Before the 11-run outburst, the Padres had scored just 50 runs in their last 15 games. In other words, look for 3 runs or less from San Diego in this one! They will struggle with Jorge De La Rosa as the Rockies left-hander has given up a total of just six earned runs in his last five starts. The Colorado lineup won’t have things any easier here either! The Rockies will be trying to solve Edward Mujica of the Padres and he’s allowed just two earned runs in 8.2 innings of work for San Diego so far. He’s registered as many strikeouts (8) as hits allowed and he also has not issued a single walk! This should work itself into a pitchers duel in chilly, pitcher-friendly conditions in Denver. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Colorado on Tuesday.
SEAN MURPHY
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
Slumps have been few and far between for the New York Yankees over the last four-and-a-half months, but here we are in late September, and they're struggling.
The Yankees are now 4-6 over their last 10 games, losers of three of their first four games on their current west coast road trip.
The Angels are heating up again having won four of their last five games, and with a strong finish to this series, can close the gap on the A.L. leading Yanks for home field advantage in the playoffs.
Chad Gaudin has made four starts for the Yankees since joining them in August, and while he's been serviceable, he certainly hasn't been anything special. Yet they've managed to win each of those four outings. He has lasted through the sixth inning in only one of those four starts, that coming two starts back against a Rays team that was mired in a monumental slump at the plate. Note that the Angels crushed him as a member of the Padres back in mid-June, recording 10 hits and eight earned runs over just three innings.
Angels starter Ervin Santana has posted truly ugly numbers at Angel Stadium this season. He is just 1-5 with a 7.24 ERA from this mound, but the news isn't all bad. He has been pitching much better lately, allowing three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. The Angels are 5-2 in his seven career outings against the Yankees, including 3-1 here at home. Note that Santana will be making his first start against the Bronx Bombers this season.
While the Yankees have been held to two runs or less in three of their last four games, the Angels have plated 15 runs over their last two contests. This is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions, at least in the short-term.
I mentioned home field advantage earlier, and that has been huge in this series, with the home side winning 14 of 18 matchups since the start of last season. The Angels have one of the strongest home field edge in all of baseball, currently 45-27 in Anaheim this season. Take Los Angeles.
LARRY NESS
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Zach Greinke opened the 2009 season winning six straight starts, allowing just two ERs over 45 innings (0.40 ERA) while throwing three complete games. He then went a 19-start stretch is which he was merely mortal (3.16 ERA) and the bumbling Royals (and their lack of offense) contributed to Greinke going just 5-8 during that span with the Royals going 5-14 in his starts. However, Greinke is back to his "Superman" impersonation as of late, going 3-0 with an 0.73 ERA in his last five outings (team is 4-1). He'll take the mound tonight against the Red Sox, who missed a great chance last night to move a game closer to the Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox led 6-0 and 8-2 last night at KC but went on the lose, 12-9 while the Yankees lsot to the Angels. I doubt Boston really thinks it can catch the Yankees but the Red Sox sure want to insure the Rangers don't catch them, for the AL's final playoff berth (wild card spot). That really isn't much of a concern though, as even with last night's loss (coupled with a Texas win), the Red Sox lead the Rangers by seven games with 13 games remaining. The Royals are still hoping Greinke will get Cy Young consideration in the AL (long shot in my opinion) and let's note that all of a sudden, the Royals are winning (11 of their last 14!). As for the Red Sox, they will counter with former Royals pitcher Paul Byrd. Byrd won his season debut on August 30 (6 IP / 3 hits / 0 ERs) but has since allowed 25 hits and 12 ERs (8.57 ERA) over his last three starts. Byrd won a career-high 17 games for Kansas City in 2002 but let's note that he is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in seven starts against the Royals since the start of the 2006 season. Take KC.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -109
I'll back the Giants for 1 Unit tonight as they look to stay in the wild card hunt with a win behind ace Matt Cain. Cain is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA on the road this season, giving the Giants the edge over Doug Davis and the D-backs. The D-backs have dropped Davis' last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 6.60. Plus, the Diamondbacks are just 9-23 in Davis' last 32 starts as an underdog. The Giants have taken 8 of the last 11 meetings and I'll take them at a nice price tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -121
Bottom Line: The Tigers are clinging to a slim 2.5-game lead over the Twins in the Central and with Minnesota coming on strong they need to take advantage of this series with the lowly Indians and I think they will. The Indians have packed it in, losing 8 in a row and 12 of their last 13. Plus, Detroit has had Cleveland's number this season, winning 11 of the 15 meetings. Jackson and Laffey have both been pretty solid for their teams this season, but both have ran into some struggles of late. However, Laffey has struggled more, going 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA and a 2.490 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Plus, Laffey is 0-1 in his career against the Tigers (0-3 against the money line) while Jackson is 4-1 lifetime against Cleveland with an ERA of 3.09. And the Tigers are 5-0 in Jackson's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit comes to play ball tonight and picks up the "W".
Dennis Macklin
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew have won five of six and looking to build on postive September run for 2010. Dave Bush didn't have much success vs Cubs as a Jay but has beaten the ChiCubs two of three in 2009. Randy Wells (7.90 ERA in L3) is going on fumes for the intruders. Take Milwaukee in friendly confines of Miller Park.