Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, September 23

DAVE COKIN

TAMPA BAY RAYS AT BOSTON RED SOX
PLAY: TAMPA BAY RAYS -120

This season pretty much ended early for the both the Rays and Red Sox. Tampa Bay dug itself a massive hole with a terrible start to the campaign, and while they did have a nice mid-season surge, they were never really contenders. As for Boston, they had a 2013 where almost everything went right. Solid, low investment players enjoyed big years and that particular edition of the Red Sox had some of the best team chemistry I’ve ever seen in any sport. I don’t think there’s any question the Boston Marathon tragedy brought the entire region together and that extended to the baseball team.

Unfortunately for Red Sox Nation (and yes, I’m a born and bred New Englander and a die hard Sox fan), the team had a huge World Series hangover and really never got anything going. From a future perspective, I really like what Ben Cherington the front office has done this summer, and with some excellent young talent making its way through the system, the future is bright for the Red Sox, perhaps as soon as next season.

But for the present, including this final week, the Red Sox are not a team I want to back. Tonight’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Rays. Alex Cobb was a little off last start, but that was off the near no-hit bid. He should rebound with his normal performance tonight, and that ought to be enough to contain a pretty soft Boston lineup. Clay Buchholz throws for the Red Sox, and while there’s been the intermittent good outing, Buchholz has mostly been serving up really hittable stuff.

The game means nothing in the standings, but the Rays always seem to come to play. That’s especially true when they face the Red Sox. There’s no love lost between these teams, and Tampa Bay always plays this opponent with a major chip on its shoulder. I see that being the case again tonight, and with the better pitcher on the mound in Cobb, laying 6/5 with the Rays seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Rob Vinciletti

Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Under 7.5

The Yankees beat Baltimore 5-0 here last night allowing just 2 hits as D. Jeter knocked in 3 runs. New York has gone under in 5 straight at home off a home win by 5+ runs. Baltimore has played under the last 4 times on the road off a road loss where they had 4 or less hits. There is a solid totals system in this game that has gone under 21 of 26 times since 2004, that pertains to teams that lost by 5 or more runs and had 2 or less hits. McCarthy for the Yankees has pitched under in 8 of 9 starts and has allowed 2 runs in 14 innings in his last 2 appearances vs Baltimore. In the series the series here 19 of the last 27 have stayed under. Look for this one to go under as well.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Kansas City Royals

Kansas City has a fine offense, 5th in batting, and is in a tight pennant race. The Royals are 16-7 in their last 23 road games. Yordano Ventura (13-10, 3.19 ERA) is on the hill, with the team 8-2 his last ten starts. Ventura allowed 1 run on three hits, walking 2 and striking out seven over seven innings in a 6-2 win over Chicago his last start. He is 7-3 on the road with a 3.17 ERA and is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against Cleveland. The Royals are 5-0 in Ventura's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest and the Royals are 17-8 in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cleveland goes with hittable Danny Salazar (6-7, 4.02 ERA), allowing more hits than innings pitched. The Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Art Aronson

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds -125

Neither of these teams is playing well of late but once the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done. The visiting Brewers go with Mike Fiers (6-3, 1.78 ERA), who has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his eight starts since getting called up Aug. 9th. The right-hander allowed both runs-one earned- in seven innings of Wednesday's 2-0 loss at St. Louis. The Reds will go with their ace in Johnny Cueto (18-9, 2.33 ERA) who is looking to bounce back off one of his poorest starts of the season where he allowed six earned runs over 5 2/3’s innings to the Cubs. The right-hander has to be liking his chances to get untracked tonight though, the last time he faced the visitors he allowed two runs and three hits while striking out 10 in eight innings of a 6-2 victory on May 3rd, giving him a 4-1 record and a very respectable 1.93 ERA in his past six starts in the series. The Brewers hopes for a playoff spot took a big hit over the weekend and I think the team will suffer a letdown here. Note that the Reds have been solid at home with a 40-35 mark, while they are also 18-7 in meetings at the Great American Ballpark between these two teams the last three seasons. The Brewers are playing the seventh game of this important nine game road trip and have to be feeling the pressure; Cincinnati meanwhile has been eliminated from contention for quite some time now and would love nothing more than to play spoiler and to put the proverbial nail in the coffin for their divisional rival. Consider the home side and Cueto.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Ray Monohan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -129

Cole Hamels is the definition of a pro. Even though the Phillies have been out of it for months he continues to pitch well as if they were in a pennant race. Right now he has a career best ERA of 2.47 and has not given up more than 3ER in a start since May 27. He should probably have double his 9 wins. A week ago he faced the Marlins and was dominant. I am expecting a similar performance again this time out. His away ERA is a nasty 1.76

Jesse Schule

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland A's
Play: Los Angeles Angels +170

Those of you who have followed my baseball plays over the years will already know that It's very rare to see me bet against a team that has a favorable match-up in starting pitchers, but I think Oakland is way overvalued here tonight. The A's have been brutal lately, even when the bats provide run support, the bullpen has not been able to hold a lead. We saw another example of that last night, as the Angels scored three runs in the top of the eighth, and the tying run was on deck in the top of the ninth with two runners on base.

Sonny Gray will toe the slab for the A's, and his numbers are better on the road than they are at home. Gray (13-9, 3.28 ERA) has only won one of his last 10 starts, and he was rocked for five runs on eight hits in a home loss to Texas his last time out. He's 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA in four starts in September, and his ERA at home (3.75) is higher than on the road (2.75). Mike Trout is hitting .364 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Gray.

The Angels hand the ball to Wade Leblanc, and expectations are that he's going to need plenty of run support. The left-hander sports an ERA of 7.36 in two previous meetings with Oakland this year. There is no doubt that the A's hold the edge on the mound, but I really don't think it's worth the price against a team that they trail by 9.5 games in the standings.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Will Rogers

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -148

The New York Yankees took Game 1 of this home series versus the Orioles by a score of 5-0 last night. The visitors may just be going through the motions as they've already clinched the AL East. The Bronx Bombers look good again tonight with a very favorable match-up on the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Brandon McCarthy will get the call for the Yankees, and he's settled in nicely since coming over from Arizona. He's been particularly sharp in the Bronx, with a record of 5-1 with a 1.36 ERA in six appearances. He's also pitched well against the Orioles, holding them scoreless through seven innings in the only previous meeting this season. Baltimore will counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has surrendered seven runs on eight hits over 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts away from home.

2. Injuries - Baltimore has been resting some of it's players in preparation for the playoffs, and Nick Markasis and Steve Pearce have both been out of the lineup in recent games due to minor ailments.

3. X-Factor - Nelson Cruz was 0-for-3 last night, and he's just 3-for-22 versus McCarthy lifetime.

Jesse Schule

LA Angels vs. Oakland
Pick: LA Angels

Those of you who have followed my baseball plays over the years will already know that It's very rare to see me bet against a team that has a favorable match-up in starting pitchers, but I think Oakland is way overvalued here tonight. The A's have been brutal lately, even when the bats provide run support, the bullpen has not been able to hold a lead. We saw another example of that last night, as the Angels scored three runs in the top of the eighth, and the tying run was on deck in the top of the ninth with two runners on base.

Sonny Gray will toe the slab for the A's, and his numbers are better on the road than they are at home. Gray (13-9, 3.28 ERA) has only won one of his last 10 starts, and he was rocked for five runs on eight hits in a home loss to Texas his last time out. He's 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA in four starts in September, and his ERA at home (3.75) is higher than on the road (2.75). Mike Trout is hitting .364 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Gray.

The Angels hand the ball to Wade Leblanc, and expectations are that he's going to need plenty of run support. The left-hander sports an ERA of 7.36 in two previous meetings with Oakland this year. There is no doubt that the A's hold the edge on the mound, but I really don't think it's worth the price against a team that they trail by 9.5 games in the standings.

MLB Predictions

Brewers / Reds Under 6.5

Mike Fiers didn’t assume a spot in the starting rotation until early August, however, he has definitely made up for lost time. He has yet to allow more than 3 runs per game in eight starts. Note that 3 runs against came only once. Understandably his ERA is rock solid, posting a 1.78 in 60.2 innings pitched. He’s been slightly better on the road as well with an ERA of 1.71, 0.95 WHIP, and .244 OBP. Fiers has been hot of late, too. In his last three starts his numbers read: 1.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .260 OBP. Fiers is still trying to make a name for himself, but the guy opposite him has been doing what Fiers has been doing for quite a while now. Additionally, Cueto is untouchable at home. He has an overall ERA of 2.33, but it gets even better at home of 1.79, nearly identical to Fiers’ 1.78 ERA. Cueto doesn’t allow many to reach base either in Cinci, parlaying his excellent ERA with a WHIP of 0.85. No reason to expect many runs in this game, therefore, I like the UNDER 6.5 for Tuesday night.

Sam Martin

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers -1.5

Tigers finished with only five base hits in a shutout loss to the White Sox last night, but we'll back them behind David Price in a massive pitching edge to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight. Tigers are clinging to a one-game lead over the Royals for the top spot in the AL Central, and can't afford to lose a series against a weak White Sox club at this stage of the season.

Price was roughed up in his previous start against Minnesota, but the last time he was roughed up he came back to pitch 7 2/3 innings of strong baseball against Cleveland, allowing just one earned run in 7-2 victory. Chicago starter Scott Carroll owns a high 5.90 ERA in all start this season and was crushed for 7 runs in five innings in his lone meeting against Detroit (Tigers won 7-1). Obvious motivation edge to the home side, and in this pitching matchup there's no reason the Tigers can't win big!

Tony George

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City Royals +104

The Royals are in need of a win, off a win last night, however they lost a makeup suspended game so they sit a game behind Detroit for the AL Central lead and 2 games up on Seattle for the AL Wild card. While the Tribe would love to spoil the Royals party and put a monkey in the wrench of the Royals post season plans, I like Ventura on the hill for KC tonight who has been in excellent form recently. 20 innings pitched, 14 hits and an ERA of 1.80 his last 3 starts, not bad considering I feel he will be the starter with run support tonight. Ventura has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 10 starts!

Cleveland counters with Danny Salazar who in his last 3 starts his ERA is a 5.09, but he did have a good outing against Houston last Thursday striking out 9, but I still lean KC here with their bats against right handers being very respectable in their last 5 games. KC is a road warrior, winning 17 out of their last 24 on the road, and while they have struggled at Cleveland, I think that trend reverse’s and KC wins a tight one and keeps pace in the AL Central and the wild card race. It is do or die for Kansas City and having 2 games up on Seattle in the wild card race in the AL, I see them keeping that spread after tonight regardless of what Seattle does, and they are a heavy favorite at Toronto tonight and have no illusions, the Royals players and coaches know that. KC shows up tonight determined and this is a very short number, pickem to a slight underdog.

Jimmy Boyd

San Diego Padres -121

The Padres may be out of the playoff race, but that hasn't kept them from playing hard down the stretch. San Diego has won 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. With last night's 1-0 win over Colorado, the Padres improved to 47-32 at home, which is easily the best home record of any non playoff contender. The Rockies on the other hand fell to 20-56 on the road. Their 20 road wins are 10 fewer than the next worst team in the majors.

The home/away splits of these two teams is enough to back the Padres as a small favorite, but San Diego also has a big edge on the mound. The Padres' Robbie Erlin has a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 5 home starts and a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa is just 4-9 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.300 WHIP over 16 road starts.

San Diego is 12-2 in their last 14 home games off 4 straight wins against division opponents, 20-9 in their last 29 home games after a combined score of 3 runs or less and 7-0 in their last 7 after 4 straight games without a home run.

There's also a strong system in play on the Padres. Teams who have won 5 or more consecutive, who are a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) against a team with a losing record are 105-50 since 1997. That's a 68% system in favor of the Padres.

Jeff Alexander

San Diego Padres -121

The Rockies are 5-35 in their last 40 road games, including 0-8 in their last 8. While De La Rosa has been rock solid at home, he's 0-5 with a 5.16 ERA in his last 5 away from Coors Field, and the Rockies are 0-7 in his last 7 road starts. The Padres have won 5 straight and are 23-6 in their last 29 at Petco. Erlin was great in his first start back from elbow soreness, holding the Phillies to 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings. It will be to his benefit that the Rockies haven't seen him since May. It will be to San Diego's advantage that it just saw De La Rosa Sept. 6.

Doug Upstone

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Seattle Mariners -160

Play On AL favorites with a money line of -150 or more like Seattle, hitting team .260 or less as a team, against an AL starting pitcher whose ERA 4.20 or lower, with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 starts. This is all about oddsmakers perception of this contest, making a team like the Mariners this large of a favorite because they have a distinct in edge in starting pitching and a history with Felix Hernandez in this case to prove their worth. These teams are 68-18, 79.1 percent the last 17 years.